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Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
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OldOwl Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
Conf USA will be one of the top conferences in baseball if we add ULL to Conf USA.
(12-27-2014 11:23 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-27-2014 10:32 PM)interwebowl Wrote:  No question AAC is better. If for no other reason, there are fewer games. CUSA is terrible terrible etc. No question Rice baseball is better off in the AAC or MW or Sunbelt.

And for the record, it kills me to say that because there is not another person who hates cougar high and all the fake platitudes it stands for more than I.

Look, I'm a college baseball junkie, and CUSA is far from a terrible baseball conference. The Mountain West is awful in baseball, and the Sunbelt is not much better. You don't know what you're talking about if you think otherwise. Sure, it's not the ACC, SEC, Pac-12 or Big 12, but it's up there with the Big West next in line. If the AAC has so few teams and only plays one weekend series against each conference foe, then that necessarily means that teams play considerably more OOC games than AAC games. Only 18 AAC games, leaves a whopping 38 OOC games. What's the point of having a baseball conference if that's the situation? Less than one-third your regular season games will be in-conference.
12-28-2014 12:45 PM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(12-27-2014 10:32 PM)interwebowl Wrote:  No question AAC is better. If for no other reason, there are fewer games. CUSA is terrible terrible etc. No question Rice baseball is better off in the AAC or MW or Sunbelt.

And for the record, it kills me to say that because there is not another person who hates cougar high and all the fake platitudes it stands for more than I.

Not for baseball. Fewer games and a terrible RPI isnt a great way to go to Omaha. C-USA hasn't held us back in baseball at all.

And as much as I dont care for C-USA.. the Sunbelt??? Srsly?
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2014 03:25 PM by Antarius.)
12-28-2014 03:24 PM
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Pellet Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(12-25-2014 06:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I Am more than ready for a return to Omah - what do you thnk of our chances?

Most likely, to get to Omaha we'd have to get through at least 2 out of TCU, Houston, Texas, and LSU. All of those teams are substantially better than Rice.
01-01-2015 01:09 PM
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Pellet Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
We also don't have the college classic this year. We will be hard pressed to stay in the top 16.
01-01-2015 03:09 PM
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YOwl Ming Offline
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Post: #25
Re: RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 01:09 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(12-25-2014 06:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I Am more than ready for a return to Omah - what do you thnk of our chances?

Most likely, to get to Omaha we'd have to get through at least 2 out of TCU, Houston, Texas, and LSU. All of those teams are substantially better than Rice.

So will every one else in that group
01-01-2015 03:19 PM
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Pellet Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 03:19 PM)YOwl Ming Wrote:  So will every one else in that group

Exactly. When we've made Omaha before, we were a solid #1 or #2 in that group. Now we're a solid #5.
01-01-2015 03:30 PM
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greyowl72 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 03:30 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 03:19 PM)YOwl Ming Wrote:  So will every one else in that group

Exactly. When we've made Omaha before, we were a solid #1 or #2 in that group. Now we're a solid #5.

It's a long marathon of a season. February into June.
It's fun to prognosticate. But at this stage it's mainly just educated guessing.
Injuries. Slumps. Illnesses. And the fickle will of the baseball gods will have a lot to do with Omaha.
Maybe we are a shade behind UT, TCU, UH, Tech at this point. On paper.
Let's re-examine this in April.
01-01-2015 03:52 PM
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YOwl Ming Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 03:52 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 03:30 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 03:19 PM)YOwl Ming Wrote:  So will every one else in that group

Exactly. When we've made Omaha before, we were a solid #1 or #2 in that group. Now we're a solid #5.

It's a long marathon of a season. February into June.
It's fun to prognosticate. But at this stage it's mainly just educated guessing.
Injuries. Slumps. Illnesses. And the fickle will of the baseball gods will have a lot to do with Omaha.
Maybe we are a shade behind UT, TCU, UH, Tech at this point. On paper.
Let's re-examine this in April.
Owls are not behind by enough that can't be fixed by good play and health in 2015
01-01-2015 03:54 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 01:09 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(12-25-2014 06:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I Am more than ready for a return to Omah - what do you thnk of our chances?

Most likely, to get to Omaha we'd have to get through at least 2 out of TCU, Houston, Texas, and LSU. All of those teams are substantially better than Rice.

??? What exactly makes them "substantially better than Rice"? Abd, BTW, you forgot about Tech. They may all be ranked ahead of us preseason, but we're going to be ranked relatively high ourselves. IMO, there's very little separating the five teams. I'll put Rice pitching up with UT, TCU and UH, with all four staff amongst the Top 5 - 10 in college baseball.
01-01-2015 04:20 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 02:54 PM)interwebowl Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 01:09 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(12-25-2014 06:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I Am more than ready for a return to Omah - what do you thnk of our chances?

Most likely, to get to Omaha we'd have to get through at least 2 out of TCU, Houston, Texas, and LSU. All of those teams are substantially better than Rice.

While we may have to get through them, I am not sure they are better and in fact I think we will prove this on the field. None of these programs can match our pitching or defense and that goes a long way. This team can hit too and Lance has really helped. Remember, in college ball especially, good pitching beats good hitting every time.

As to RPI, it is vital to all non P5 schools and that is the reason I still think the AAC is a better fit. No offense Walt, but I don't think you really understand my point (probably my fault). CUSA is really limiting what Rice can do out of conference to boost RPI by forcing us to play so many games in this sorry conference against substandard opponents. The primary reason for this, btw, is that for most of them, because they are so crappy (records and facilities), a bigger conference schedule is the only way they can get home weekend series against top 200 D1 programs. I have heard at least three programs including Southern Miss make that point in the past and this is why they always vote for playing as many conference games as they can get away with. They don't care that Rice is trying to do more than win conference because the truth is, we are the only ones in this current alignment who can boost their RPI with OOC games and series without playing all OOC games on the road.

Are you really saying that given a smaller conference slate, that Wayne and company would not be able to schedule the hell out of the rest of the season and produce an RPI that would be better overall no matter what AAC vs CUSA relative RPI's would be? Also remember the boost AAC would get if they played against Rice and the hit CUSA would take if they did not. I guess I just think that giving Wayne more degrees of freedom in scheduling is a good thing and a potential game changer.

1. UT, TCU and UH all have elite pitching; I just don't think they have the quality depth that we do. Quite honestly, I don't think anyone in the country has the quality depth that we do....and it's not as if we're lacking the elite pitchers as the top (Fox, Duplantier, STephens, Ditman).

2. A couple point on CUSA as a baseball conference. While I agree with you that the sheer number of schools in our conference limits the number of OOC weekend series to 3 or 4 each year, but that's at most one less than any other conference. The AAC is the anamoly with so few teams, but they're not going to survive for long unless they can expand or merge with another G5. Second, contrary to your contention, CUSA is NOT a horrible baseball conference. So long as we're playing the majority of our games against teams ranked inside the Top 100 in RPI and have no more than one team ranked outside the Top 200 (which was most certainly the case last year), then the conference games will not hurt our RPI so long as we win at at least a 60% clip). The OG has been masterful in scheduling to maximize our RPI (save for the freakish 2013 season when Hawaii, Purdue and Stanford all had unexpectedly horrible seasons).

3. As for the AAC, with Louisville now gone, there are only 3 quality baseball schools (UH, UCF, ECU)...and we play the Coogs 3 games every year as is, and will be playing both UCF and ECU home weekend series in 2015. So why exactly do we need to play in the AAC? Keep in mind, that it's very difficult, if not impossible, to schedule Top 100 (or even Top 200) opponents after the first 4 weekends of the year, given the start of conference play (for everyone except the AAC).
01-01-2015 04:33 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 03:09 PM)Pellet Wrote:  We also don't have the college classic this year. We will be hard pressed to stay in the top 16.

Yeah, that's going to really hurt us when we play 11 of our first 13 games (over 20% of the season) against UT, Stanford and Arizona-- all Top 25 ranked teams. Add the mid-week games against UH x 3, TCU and A&M, and we're playing 16 OOC games (just under 33% of the regular season games) against Top 25 competition.
01-01-2015 04:37 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 03:54 PM)YOwl Ming Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 03:52 PM)greyowl72 Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 03:30 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 03:19 PM)YOwl Ming Wrote:  So will every one else in that group

Exactly. When we've made Omaha before, we were a solid #1 or #2 in that group. Now we're a solid #5.

It's a long marathon of a season. February into June.
It's fun to prognosticate. But at this stage it's mainly just educated guessing.
Injuries. Slumps. Illnesses. And the fickle will of the baseball gods will have a lot to do with Omaha.
Maybe we are a shade behind UT, TCU, UH, Tech at this point. On paper.
Let's re-examine this in April.
Owls are not behind by enough that can't be fixed by good play and health in 2015

+1000. And even if we're ranked 5th amongst that group in preseason polling, it's not because Rice baseball has slipped, but rather because TCU, UH and Tech has improved. And the difference between the five Texas schools (6 if you want to include the Aggies) going into the 2015 season is very small.
01-01-2015 04:40 PM
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Pellet Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 04:20 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Abd, BTW, you forgot about Tech.

Tech is outside the 450 mile driving limit for regionals.
01-01-2015 04:47 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-01-2015 04:33 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 02:54 PM)interwebowl Wrote:  
(01-01-2015 01:09 PM)Pellet Wrote:  
(12-25-2014 06:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I Am more than ready for a return to Omah - what do you thnk of our chances?

Most likely, to get to Omaha we'd have to get through at least 2 out of TCU, Houston, Texas, and LSU. All of those teams are substantially better than Rice.

While we may have to get through them, I am not sure they are better and in fact I think we will prove this on the field. None of these programs can match our pitching or defense and that goes a long way. This team can hit too and Lance has really helped. Remember, in college ball especially, good pitching beats good hitting every time.

As to RPI, it is vital to all non P5 schools and that is the reason I still think the AAC is a better fit. No offense Walt, but I don't think you really understand my point (probably my fault). CUSA is really limiting what Rice can do out of conference to boost RPI by forcing us to play so many games in this sorry conference against substandard opponents. The primary reason for this, btw, is that for most of them, because they are so crappy (records and facilities), a bigger conference schedule is the only way they can get home weekend series against top 200 D1 programs. I have heard at least three programs including Southern Miss make that point in the past and this is why they always vote for playing as many conference games as they can get away with. They don't care that Rice is trying to do more than win conference because the truth is, we are the only ones in this current alignment who can boost their RPI with OOC games and series without playing all OOC games on the road.

Are you really saying that given a smaller conference slate, that Wayne and company would not be able to schedule the hell out of the rest of the season and produce an RPI that would be better overall no matter what AAC vs CUSA relative RPI's would be? Also remember the boost AAC would get if they played against Rice and the hit CUSA would take if they did not. I guess I just think that giving Wayne more degrees of freedom in scheduling is a good thing and a potential game changer.

1. UT, TCU and UH all have elite pitching; I just don't think they have the quality depth that we do. Quite honestly, I don't think anyone in the country has the quality depth that we do....and it's not as if we're lacking the elite pitchers as the top (Fox, Duplantier, STephens, Ditman).

2. A couple point on CUSA as a baseball conference. While I agree with you that the sheer number of schools in our conference limits the number of OOC weekend series to 3 or 4 each year, but that's at most one less than any other conference. The AAC is the anamoly with so few teams, but they're not going to survive for long unless they can expand or merge with another G5. Second, contrary to your contention, CUSA is NOT a horrible baseball conference. So long as we're playing the majority of our games against teams ranked inside the Top 100 in RPI and have no more than one team ranked outside the Top 200 (which was most certainly the case last year), then the conference games will not hurt our RPI so long as we win at at least a 60% clip). The OG has been masterful in scheduling to maximize our RPI (save for the freakish 2013 season when Hawaii, Purdue and Stanford all had unexpectedly horrible seasons).

3. As for the AAC, with Louisville now gone, there are only 3 quality baseball schools (UH, UCF, ECU)...and we play the Coogs 3 games every year as is, and will be playing both UCF and ECU home weekend series in 2015. So why exactly do we need to play in the AAC? Keep in mind, that it's very difficult, if not impossible, to schedule Top 100 (or even Top 200) opponents after the first 4 weekends of the year, given the start of conference play (for everyone except the AAC).

Just to reinforce my point above in bold, the two teams the Coogs were able to schedule ths coming year for their additional two weekends of OOC play (following Minute Maid) are Buffalo and New Mexico; neither of which is going to help their RPI any, and will likely hurt it.
01-01-2015 04:56 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
With the allowed 3 weeks of full-team Spring Practice and intrasquads scheduled to begin next Friday, what does everyone perceive as the key factors and issues/question marks heading into the season? Who are you projecting to be this year's breakout stars?
01-17-2015 10:41 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-17-2015 10:41 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  With the allowed 3 weeks of full-team Spring Practice and intrasquads scheduled to begin next Friday, what does everyone perceive as the key factors and issues/question marks heading into the season? Who are you projecting to be this year's breakout stars?

To me the clear question mark is hitting. On paper the pitching staff appears to be one of our best staffs in years.

We need to get production from the corners -- 3B and 1B, both will have newcomers. I don't see much power in the lineup. I do see speed, but we've had speed before and it seems to have never translated into stolen bases.

Regarding breakout stars, I'll go with C Teykl, Byrd and Ryan Chandler.

Pitching wise, I'll take Glenn Otto.
01-17-2015 10:48 AM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(01-17-2015 10:48 AM)wheredidmypantsgo Wrote:  
(01-17-2015 10:41 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  With the allowed 3 weeks of full-team Spring Practice and intrasquads scheduled to begin next Friday, what does everyone perceive as the key factors and issues/question marks heading into the season? Who are you projecting to be this year's breakout stars?

To me the clear question mark is hitting. On paper the pitching staff appears to be one of our best staffs in years.

We need to get production from the corners -- 3B and 1B, both will have newcomers. I don't see much power in the lineup. I do see speed, but we've had speed before and it seems to have never translated into stolen bases.

Regarding breakout stars, I'll go with C Teykl, Byrd and Ryan Chandler.

Pitching wise, I'll take Glenn Otto.

No question, offense is our biggest question mark, but if both Byrd and C.Teykll breakout as expected (both can be doubles machines) and Stainback can hit .300+ (as he did in the California League this past Summer), I think we'll be fine. I'm really hoping Berkman, who always had one of the best eyes and pitch selectivity in MLB, will have a very positive impact on plate discipline and, as a result, we'll see a greater number of free passes. We will likely have four left-handed bats in the everyday lineup (to go along with Byrd and Stainback as switch hitters): Chandler, Gray, Teykl and Warren, with yet another (Williamson, McCanna?) inserted as the DH against right-handed pitching. Lewis and Reeves (with Kirby Taylor, Hunter K. as DH) will be our only right-handed batters (unless Khevin Brewer breaks in and platoons in the OF with Gray or Warren). I can see the following lineup...

2B Stainback (switch hitter) - CF Chandler (Left-handed) - SS Byrd (S) - C Reeves ®- 1B Teykl (L) - 3B Lewis ®- LF Gray (L)- DH Williamson/Taylor - RF Warren (L)


On the mound, I agree with you re. Otto, but I'd also keep an eye on Austin Orewiler. He had an impressive Fall, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins one of the mid-week starter slots (along with Otto). Will either Stephens or Petitte be ready to contribute before the second half of the season...and has Solecitto's arm soreness cured itself with rest, or will he have to go under the knife?
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2015 11:16 AM by waltgreenberg.)
01-17-2015 11:13 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(12-27-2014 09:31 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  With Louisville now gone to the ACC, the AAC has become one of the weakest baseball conferences in the country, this is going to have an adverse effect on your RPI.

Revisiting this observation from Walt, here are the current nonconference records:

American 113-59-1 65.6%
CUSA 107-78-1 57.8%

The American is almost universally ranked the 5th best conference this year behind the SEC, Big 12, ACC and Pac 12.

We've got one horrible team (Cincy). The other seven teams are at least solid. Massey currently has UCF 19, Tulane 39, Houston 42, Memphis 47, UConn 57, East Carolina 64 and USF 88. In Boyd's Pseudo RPI, all seven of those teams are Top 100.

RPI appears to be a bigger concern for CUSA this year. And from the power ratings side, I've seen CUSA ranked as the 10th best conference this year (scroll to the bottom). There's not much difference between 6th and 10th. Another thing they have in common - they are WAY behind 5th.
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2015 10:03 AM by CougarRed.)
03-22-2015 09:53 AM
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Post: #39
RE: Transitioning From #OWLoha to Owlmaha-- 50 days & Counting
(03-22-2015 09:53 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Revisiting this observation from Walt, here are the current nonconference records:

American 113-59-1 65.6%
CUSA 107-78-1 57.8%

Please don't confuse Walt with objective observations or actual facts.
03-23-2015 08:08 PM
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