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At 9-16, its going to be tough to cross that .500 mark next season.

Without knowing the exact schedule it's hard to make a true prediction, but with MSU,OSU,Geo Southern. Going 2-2 non con will be a solid start. That wil make Peej just 11-18. If we play in a bowl that leaves 9 more games. Peej needs to go 8-1 in those games to hit 19-19. (9-0) to finish above .500.

So....20/1 sound right?

In My Awesome Opinion (lol):

Odds of making .500 in 2015 season: 50% (25% above .500; 25% below .500)
Odds of going 10-3 or better in 2015 season, going .500+ overall: 10%

10% may seem a little high, especially with the end of this season bringing some heightened fandom back down to earth a bit. As one may say 5% would be more reasonable (like you, 20-1 odds), I would say 10%. It's a small but actual possibility that's considerable, out of the corner of the eye. PJ's a different breed -- ya never know what you're going to get! And I would say higher % chance of going way-higher-than-expectations VS rock-bottom -- his enthusiasm & passion will prevent rock-bottom Much more.

Low. Currently 9-16, meaning he will need to finish 7 games over .500 next year to get there. There are 2 guaranteed losses in MSU and OSU. So that leaves 10 games maybe 11 if they get to a bowl.

As has been expressed here and other places recently. I think the team might be better and more talented next season, but I don't think that is necessarily going to translate into more wins, simply based on schedule and where games are going to be played. I can see 7-5 next season. 8-4 if everything falls right. So that doesn't get him there.

Actually, I am going to change my answer from low to zero. Not gonna happen next year.

<1% chance.

vs. MSU (L)
vs. FCS (W)
@ Ohio St. (L)
@ GSU (toss up)
@ Toledo (L)
vs. Ball St. (W)
@ MAC East (W)
vs. MAC East (W)
vs. MAC East (W)
@ EMU (W)
vs. CMU (W)
@ NIU (toss up)

Bowl game (toss up)

Best-case scenario prediction: 9-4 (with bowl win) -- 18-20 overall record
Worst-case scenario prediction: 7-6 (with bowl loss) -- 16-22 overall record

I think it happens in 2016, and we win 10 (maybe even 11) games.

My hunch is we split the Power Two (NIU and UT) next year, even on the road. But I don't think we'll go completely unblemished again with the rest of the MAC. It's still the crazy MAC and we'll probably lose a game we're favored in.

At Ga Southern will be tough, especially sandwiched between MSU and OSU, it'd be too tempting to overlook them.

I agree that things may set up very nicely for '16.

If the current coaching staffs stay as is, that Illinois game should make for some interesting conversation.

MY VERSION, IF WE PLAY WELL:

vs. MSU (L - 20%)
vs. FCS (W - 97%)
@ Ohio St. (L - 5%)
@ GSU (L - 35%)
@ Toledo (L - 35%)
vs. Ball St. (W - 60%)
@ MAC East (W - 60%)
vs. MAC East (W - 70%)
vs. MAC East (W - 80%)
@ EMU (W - 90%)
vs. CMU (W - 90%)
@ NIU (L - 45%)

I honestly can't see us better than 8-4, but at the same time, I can't see us worse than 6-6 (FCS, CMU, EMU, 3-MAC East).

LOW: 6-6 (30%)
EXPECT: 7-5 (50%)
HIGH: 8-4 (20%)

Here is a twist to the conversation if we go 7-6 next year (plausible) Peej is 16-22. What are the chances he doesn't break .500 in his 4th year. We still need to go 9-4 that season to break .500 (while plausible its no gimme)

I have no doubt we will win AT LEAST 9 games in 2016.

What makes you so sure? You been watching the MAC for more than a few years?

This league is unpredictable. Bottom teams can make a big leap in improvement in a year (see: WMU). Almost any team can rise up and pull an 'upset.' Some teams have another team's number year after year:

UT over WMU, CMU vs NIU, etc.

Let's not start acting as if our predictions have already come true. That's reserved for the bait shop boys up north and the not-so-ready-for-primetime dogs fans that feel as if they are too good for this league.

While I don't believe it to be true, its possible this was our "fluke" year. Well still be young and fragile. Lets be honest we might be in the midst of a 1-5 stretch. That could slow down momentum.

I'd put the chances at just north of 0.

Ga Southern concerns me. They don't have a sexy name and can be easily overlooked. But those upper-tier G5 schools down south can light things up. Swept the Sun Belt but is bowl ineligible in their first season.

MSU and OSU are nearly "automatic" L's, unless we fire on all cylinders and planets all align. So we could really use that win at GSU to avoid a 3-loss stretch in September.

How impressive is Georgia Southern? FCS one year, upper tier G5 the next.

They're a great program with a very good football coach... but that's also a reflection on how bad the Sun Belt is (App State even won 6 games). UMass was 0-12 in their first FCS-MAC transition year.

The big number here will be when Fleck eventually leaves...will he have really changed the culture? It is odd, but if you look at the records of the WMU football coaches over the years (don't have it at hand), I believe they are all right around 500, give or take a few wins or losses. Darnell got there with a fast start, furious fade, Molde, just consistent, and Fleck with that slow start and making up ground. I just find it interesting how the coach always seems to end up right around 500 when they go

That is a good question. Will the culture be permanently changed? History tells me we have at 107 year culture of mediocrity, and my intuition tells me we will trend toward the norm.

As far as all the slogans and r-t-b philosophy, my management background tells me that sort of thing is fleeting. Trends like that come and go, they are fresh when you first trot them out, but then they get stale and the next big thing comes along.

Similar with the HowMountain and HowNado stuff. It only takes a couple times and then you have been there-done that.

So if I were betting, I'd bet no. The culture will go away with time, probably sooner than later. As the song says know when to hold em, fold em. Best you can hope for is to die in your sleep.

^ How will players, now 17-18, respond to "Row the Boat" and Fleck's other motivational gimmicks when they're 21-22 and have been hearing them for 4-5 years? Especially if we don't have the anticipated success in the meantime?

Of course there is the possibility he has an untapped store of them and will be breaking out new ones each season.

(12-24-2014 04:45 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Ga Southern concerns me. They don't have a sexy name and can be easily overlooked. But those upper-tier G5 schools down south can light things up. Swept the Sun Belt but is bowl ineligible in their first season.

I will be going to the WMU - Ga Southern game next fall. Statesville, GA is less than an hour drive from my home in SC. They have a nice stadium, good turnout for their games, and have had some good players head to the NFL from there.

The real question is "if" we go backward in in field success can we step forward again. Imagine for a moment we go say 7-5 next year or 6-6 and don't get a bowl invite. Does the message start to ring hollow or will the group continue to RTB

That is not the question for me. I am confident they will row the boat. For me I wonder will they get to the other shore? And what then?

RTB has its basis in overcoming adversity. Can it work in sustaining success?

WMU has had many periods of moderate success, even strings of several good years. But we've never seen 9-10 wins with championships and bowl wins mixed in.

I hope to see that.

Quote:Here is a twist to the conversation if we go 7-6 next year (plausible) Peej is 16-22.

7-6 is a very likely scenario. [MSU, @OSU, @GA-Southern, @NIU, @Toledo] = 5 losses regular season, even if we win out the rest (CMU, BSU, Sweep MAC-East (3), EMU, FCS).

We could perform just as well as this year and go 7-5. Just no "big" wins. BSU will be better. The MAC East will be better, and likely we'll play at least 1 somewhat tough one. And of course, CMU who due to rivalry will be no easy task.

My point is -- the other 7 games aren't a gimmie to sweep thru undefeated. We could win one of our "tough 5 underdog games", but just as easily lose one of our "7 easier games where a few aren't 'Easy'".

7-5 is going to be "decent" next year. Then lose a bowl game -- we go 7-6. OR we go a bit below par, but with added bowls and the ACC not stacking so many .500 teams like this year, we get to a bowl and win it.

Best prediction: 7-6.

Would I be upset? Depends on how we play & the circumstances. I wouldn't want to be 7-6 where we lucked out in a variety of games to win, while us being 100% healthy. But if we get some injuries, thinks look a little bleak, but we tough it out -- won't mind it at all.

To me, it's a testing-battle year for 2016 -- where we make our "big move" (GA Southern at home, @Northwestern, @Illinois vs Cubit, NIU & Toledo at home; Terrell a senior)