As usual, Collegiate Baseball is first out of the gate, and as usual this joke of a poll likely has us ranked lower than any of the more reputable polls-- we come in at only #22 (while I suspect most of the others have us in the #10 - #15 range). Other notables: #2 TCU, #7 UT, #8 UH, #9 Tx Tech, #18 Stanford...

http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2014...ason-poll/

Seems to me we have more quality pitching depth than just about anyone, including at least 3 - 4 elite, all-American caliber pitchers (Stephens, Fox, Duplantier, Ditman), depending upon how well Stephens comes back from TJS. Yes, our offense is a question mark, but so too is TCU's, UH's and Stanford's. CB never gives us much respect.

Is UT really a top 10 team? Or is it the Augie factor?

Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

All those teams finished last year better than Rice, seems OK that they are ranked higher to start the new season.

As we have seen over the last few seasons, any pitcher trying to come back from TJS is a big question mark.

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

Seems like this boils down to:

Preseason ranking = Last years performance - player not returning + incoming recruiting class

Coming up with a prediction of 2015 season end ranking that is more accurate than:

2015 season end ranking = 2014 season end ranking

is actually pretty difficult. I would love to see an analysis of which (if any) preseason polls do better than the default.

(12-22-2014 07:23 PM)temchugh Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

Seems like this boils down to:

Preseason ranking = Last years performance - player not returning + incoming recruiting class

Coming up with a prediction of 2015 season end ranking that is more accurate than:

2015 season end ranking = 2014 season end ranking

is actually pretty difficult. I would love to see an analysis of which (if any) preseason polls do better than the default.

Actually, I think the reputable pollsters give more weight to the proven and elite players returning, as opposed to those departing. And last year's performance is not limited to how the team did in the post-season, which is a very small sample size.

We have some good early series early which gives us a chance to prove how good we are.

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

Collegiate Baseball's ranking is not a poll.

(12-22-2014 11:54 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Collegiate Baseball's ranking is not a poll.

Quite true, but you could say the same about the "polls" of Baseball America, Perfect Game, Eric Sorenson and the new D1Baseball. The difference is that the guy behind Collegiate Baseball's rankings does minimal to no research, whereas the others put in considerable analysis, as well as calls to coaches, to form the basis for their rankings.

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

I think UH could go to Omaha this year, but I want to see who is replacing Tyler Ford and Chase Welbrock before I get gung-ho about a pre-season ranking of 8. That being said, I saw fall ball and UH has some serious power bat additions this year at 1B and catcher.

(12-23-2014 08:38 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

I think UH could go to Omaha this year, but I want to see who is replacing Tyler Ford and Chase Welbrock before I get gung-ho about a pre-season ranking of 8. That being said, I saw fall ball and UH has some serious power bat additions this year at 1B and catcher.

And that's my point-- your bullpen, and Tyler Ford in particular, was far and away your team MVP last season....and you have less returning offense than even Rice does. I also think that while your pitching staff is strong, I honestly think Rice's is much deeper, and we have just as many, if not more, elite, proven arms that anchor the staff. IMO, there's no justification whatsoever in UH being ranked 14 spot ahead of the Owls.

I have no problem with the rankings which really mean nothing at this stage - just a way to sell magazines and newspapers.. Our schedule is tough enough we can easily improve the rankings.

(12-23-2014 08:44 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 08:38 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

I think UH could go to Omaha this year, but I want to see who is replacing Tyler Ford and Chase Welbrock before I get gung-ho about a pre-season ranking of 8. That being said, I saw fall ball and UH has some serious power bat additions this year at 1B and catcher.

And that's my point-- your bullpen, and Tyler Ford in particular, was far and away your team MVP last season....and you have less returning offense than even Rice does. I also think that while your pitching staff is strong, I honestly think Rice's is much deeper, and we have just as many, if not more, elite, proven arms that anchor the staff. IMO, there's no justification whatsoever in UH being ranked 14 spot ahead of the Owls.

(12-23-2014 08:44 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 08:38 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

I think UH could go to Omaha this year, but I want to see who is replacing Tyler Ford and Chase Welbrock before I get gung-ho about a pre-season ranking of 8. That being said, I saw fall ball and UH has some serious power bat additions this year at 1B and catcher.

And that's my point-- your bullpen, and Tyler Ford in particular, was far and away your team MVP last season....and you have less returning offense than even Rice does. I also think that while your pitching staff is strong, I honestly think Rice's is much deeper, and we have just as many, if not more, elite, proven arms that anchor the staff. IMO, there's no justification whatsoever in UH being ranked 14 spot ahead of the Owls.

Don't sweat it. I'm sure the Owls will find a way to take a game off the Cougars this year. In all seriousness, I look forward to the season. My only regret is Rice isn't in the College Classic instead of Hawaii.

(12-23-2014 03:21 PM)Mademen Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 08:44 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 08:38 AM)Mademen Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 05:26 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:44 PM)owlsfan Wrote:  Whether it is correct or not to do so, pre-season polls are going to have some reputational factor inherent in them; they look at more than who you have coming back and who you signed. Until Rice fights its way back into a CWS, or at least becomes a more consistant visitor to the regional final level, we are going to be perceived in the "decent but not dangerous category" (Collge baseball is funny; you are either in the final 16, or in the final 64). In the last 6 years, we have emerged out of the regionals field to a super-regional once. If our pitching is that great and deep, then this will be the year; we can even battle our way out of the loser's bracket.

With all due respect, that is a bunch of baloney. Nobody-- not even the joke that is Collegiate Baseball-- bases preseason polls on how a team did in the previous years' post-season. The reputable preseason polls (Baseball America, the new D1Baseball poll-- with both Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitts doing the analysis, and Eric Sorenson's exhaustive ranking of all 300 teams) all base their preseason poll on several factors in decreasing order of importance: (1) returning, proven players, (2) number of elite, all-American caliber players, (3) incoming recruiting class ranking, with special consideration to Top 100 talent, and (4) last year's performance. I also think the smart pundits put a bit more weight on pitching than offense.

To answer someone else's question-- yes, Texas deserves to be consensus Top 10, and may very well make a couple Top 5 preseason rankings. Their pitching is that good (though I think ours may be even better and deeper), they lost only two starters from last year's CWS team, and they bring in a Top 10 recruiting class. I do think TCU is way overranked in CB's poll. Yes, they bring back a couple all-American pitchers, as well a number of other quality pitchers, but I don't think their returning offense is any better than ours. UH also has very strong pitching, but is their returning offense really any better than ours, and certainly not enough to warrant the difference between a #8 and #22 ranking. I think CB forgets how injured we were last year.

I think UH could go to Omaha this year, but I want to see who is replacing Tyler Ford and Chase Welbrock before I get gung-ho about a pre-season ranking of 8. That being said, I saw fall ball and UH has some serious power bat additions this year at 1B and catcher.

And that's my point-- your bullpen, and Tyler Ford in particular, was far and away your team MVP last season....and you have less returning offense than even Rice does. I also think that while your pitching staff is strong, I honestly think Rice's is much deeper, and we have just as many, if not more, elite, proven arms that anchor the staff. IMO, there's no justification whatsoever in UH being ranked 14 spot ahead of the Owls.

Don't sweat it. I'm sure the Owls will find a way to take a game off the Cougars this year. In all seriousness, I look forward to the season. My only regret is Rice isn't in the College Classic instead of Hawaii.

We're back again next year since no CUSA team agreed to play us Week #4 (a week before conference play formally opens), as Charlotte did this year...but that means we have to play a CUSA series during Finals week next year.

(12-23-2014 05:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  We're back again next year since no CUSA team agreed to play us Week #4 (a week before conference play formally opens), as Charlotte did this year...but that means we have to play a CUSA series during Finals week next year.

I'm guessing you mean Dead Week, since Rice athletes cannot compete during finals (without special circumstances that apply only to individual athletes, not a team).

(12-23-2014 05:59 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 05:04 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  We're back again next year since no CUSA team agreed to play us Week #4 (a week before conference play formally opens), as Charlotte did this year...but that means we have to play a CUSA series during Finals week next year.

I'm guessing you mean Dead Week, since Rice athletes cannot compete during finals (without special circumstances that apply only to individual athletes, not a team).

Yup. We were unable to get any CUSA team to play us that 4th weekend of the season in 2016; consequently, we do not get to take a weekend off for dead week and finals. It is my understanding that this has already been worked out and approved by the powers that be.

(12-23-2014 08:24 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 11:54 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Collegiate Baseball's ranking is not a poll.

Quite true, but you could say the same about the "polls" of Baseball America, Perfect Game, Eric Sorenson and the new D1Baseball. The difference is that the guy behind Collegiate Baseball's rankings does minimal to no research, whereas the others put in considerable analysis, as well as calls to coaches, to form the basis for their rankings.

Agreed.

Baseball America's ranking is not a poll.

And it has more credibility, to me, than any poll.

College Baseball Central just released their preseason poll with Rice coming in at #16...and with #3 TCU, #6 UT, #7 UH, #10 TxTech and #19 Stanford...

http://collegebaseballcentral.com/colleg...25-2/8319/

Quote:16. Rice Owls
As a rule, Rice is at its best when they are led by a veteran group of pitchers. That will certainly be the case in 2015, as they return big-time arms in Blake Fox and Matt Ditman, along with several other key pieces such as Kevin McCanna, Jon Duplantier, Trevor Tekyl, and Jordan Stephens, who missed most of the 2014 season with an injury, but was a key piece of the Owls’ rotation in 2013. Offensively, they do have some holes to fill, as they lost 2014’s biggest power bats in Michael Aquino and Skyler Ewing, along with key role players in Keenan Cook, Shane Hoelscher, and Chase McDowell.

Still don't get TCU being ranked in the Top 5 given they lost their two best offensive players on a team that was weak offensively. Yes, they've got 3 elite, all-American caliber pitchers, but I don't think they have the quality pitching depth that we do...and we have 2 - 3 elite pitchers of our own (4 if Jordan comes back healthy and regains his 2013 form). I also don't get how the pundits seem to think that UH has more pitching than we do.

(01-02-2015 10:53 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  College Baseball Central just released their preseason poll with Rice coming in at #16...and with #3 TCU, #6 UT, #7 UH, #10 TxTech and #19 Stanford...

http://collegebaseballcentral.com/colleg...25-2/8319/

Quote:16. Rice Owls
As a rule, Rice is at its best when they are led by a veteran group of pitchers. That will certainly be the case in 2015, as they return big-time arms in Blake Fox and Matt Ditman, along with several other key pieces such as Kevin McCanna, Jon Duplantier, Trevor Tekyl, and Jordan Stephens, who missed most of the 2014 season with an injury, but was a key piece of the Owls’ rotation in 2013. Offensively, they do have some holes to fill, as they lost 2014’s biggest power bats in Michael Aquino and Skyler Ewing, along with key role players in Keenan Cook, Shane Hoelscher, and Chase McDowell.

Still don't get TCU being ranked in the Top 5 given they lost their two best offensive players on a team that was weak offensively. Yes, they've got 3 elite, all-American caliber pitchers, but I don't think they have the quality pitching depth that we do...and we have 2 - 3 elite pitchers of our own (4 if Jordan comes back healthy and regains his 2013 form). I also don't get how the pundits seem to think that UH has more pitching than we do.

I clicked on the 'next article button' and got this: http://collegebaseballcentral.com/favori...me/8262/2/