As can be seen from the following chart, the AAC is looking at a 6 to 8 fold decrease in NCAA unit distributions:



As it stands, the AAC will distribute approximately $5 million to USF, Cincy and Uconn in exit fees and accrued tourney credits by departing schools over the next 4 years. The three schools will thus receive $20 million over the next 4 years.

At the conclusion of this span in 2018, Uconn, USF, and Cincy will receive an estimated $500,000 per school based on an NCAA performance projection of a conference more in keeping with results from a conference like the west coast conference or the missouri valley rather than the old Big East.

Most realize that the AAC took a substantial revenue hit with their new tv contract, which pays approximately $1.8 million a year, or about 1/2 of what the schools earned pre-2012.

The common wisdom suggests that the aforementioned schols have a period of 4 to 5 years during which they can retain some revenue advantage, spruce up their resumes, and not degrade to the point of no return.

I posit, and the data seems to indicate, that that premise is quite reasonable. The revenue in year 4, based on how the units are calculated and distributed, seem to indicate that the budgets will be busted at that time by the exhaustion of the credits and the payment under the AAC contract.

For example, in 2012 Uconn received a distribution from the Big East of approximately $7 million.

In 2019, each AAC school will receive $2 million from the CFP. The bowl distribution will total about $350,000 per school. Thus Uconn will receive $4.1 million from the AAC, including tourney credits, CFP distributions, bowl distributions and tv revenue.

In 2012, Uconn received $7 million from the Big East.

Uconn's travel budget will also increase. WVU saw a $2 million increase in its Big 12 travel related expenses. Uconn sponsors more sports, and its travel is just as bad/costly as WVU.

Admittedly while one can't predict revenue from ticket sales, a Uconn report prepared by McKinsey indicates that total ticket revenue was down in 2012. http://ctmirror.org/reduced-resources-uconn-sports/ Since then, Ucon has sold fewer season tickets, fewer game day tickets, both in football (highest revenue sport) as well as both men's and women's basketball.

Reduced resources’ for UConn sports
"The sports teams at the University of Connecticut are facing fiscal challenges, the president's athletics advisory committee wrote in its annual report to school President Susan Herbst."

The AAC home schedule isn't as attractive as the old Big East one, so this will continue to be a negative trend.

So increasing expenses combined with a radical reduction in revenue is a very gad situation for a school to be in.

As for Cincy, based on the revenue gains from Nippert's renovation, including high value luxury suites, Cincy has bought itself a bit more time. A study indicates that such renovation will generate an additional $3 per year after construction costs. A start, but obviously only enough to tread water. http://archive.cincinnati.com/article/20...ncial-game

So for those who fail to see the urgency that a school like Uconn (and Cincy) are in, this should give you an idea as to why such thinking is wrong. So the snide remarks about these schools being "stuck" in the AAC can be seen as hurtful, and I feel it's wrong when they're made fun of for trying to improve their AD's.

Who did you steal that from?

UConn's travel costs increasing?

look at their road fb games next 4 years
2015- UCF, Cincy, Temple, Tulane 1223, 800, 234, 1447 (avg of 926 miles)
2016- ECU, Houston, Navy, USF 651, 1800, 355, 1278 (avg of 1021 miles)
2017- UCF, Cincy, SMU, Temple 1223, 800, 234, 1718 (avg of 993 miles)
2018- ECU, Memphis, USF, Tulsa 951,1278, 1266, 1502 (avg of 1249 miles)

compare to
2012- Rutgers, Syracuse, USF, Louisville 177, 275, 951, 898 (avg of 575 miles)
2011- WVU, Pitt, Cincy 548, 501, 799 (avg of 616 miles)

so for UConn, it's a difference of 3 of the 4 years about 400 miles. 1 year is about double. It's not like WVU at all- the CLOSEST team that WVU has now is 850 miles away. where before outside of USF- they were within 550 miles of each team. So no, travel is not remotely comparable for UConn than it was WVU- not in the least.

And the tickets in basketball frankly is a bull**** thing. The only reason why conference attendance was down in 2013-14 season vs 2012-13 was the Temple game was during a snowstorm. If not, it was within 300 tickets.

The one thing with the AAC- by the time all the departed money is done- the TV deal is up. If the AAC performs on the court, they would get a big bump and make up for the NCAA tourney money drop off.

There is no doubt Uconn, Cincy, and USF would be better off some where else. (so wouldnt everyone else in the AAC) But that is not in their control. Yes BB money is going to drop off. But hopefully TV $$ will go up. If TV $$ doubles it still would be cheap content for ESPN, and around 2 mil per year of what gets lost will be replaced.

(12-22-2014 02:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  UConn's travel costs increasing?

They'll be up a little bit, especially in non-revenue sports where in the Big East you had bus-trips to Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Rutgers, Villanova and Syracuse, and busses as an option for Pitt and WVU vs flying the soccer team everywhere but Temple. But that's a drop in the bucket.

And it's not comparable to WVU, who has to get to remote locations like Lubbock and Ames and Kansas and K-STate. The AAC schools are all within close range of a major airport (except ECU, but they're no farther from Raleigh than WVU is from Pittsburgh.)

Quote:The one thing with the AAC- by the time all the departed money is done- the TV deal is up. If the AAC performs on the court, they would get a big bump and make up for the NCAA tourney money drop off.

I don't think that big money bump is happening. Performing on the court and performing in the TV ratings are not the same.

But one other big thing wrong with the OP is rating the AAC's future credits as $500,000, like the WCC. The AAC looks a lot more like the Mountain West (UConn, Memphis, Temple, Cincinatti plus random vs SDSU, UNLV, UNM, USU, UNR) and the Mounatin West on that chart is pulling in $1M a year.

But BE4Evah's solution of UConn going back to the Big East is a ship that has sailed. They're not going to dynamite the football stadium, and the MAC is no longer a 13-team conference that might be interested in UConn as #14.

(12-21-2014 10:35 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  As can be seen from the following chart, the AAC is looking at a 6 to 8 fold decrease in NCAA unit distributions:



As it stands, the AAC will distribute approximately $5 million to USF, Cincy and Uconn in exit fees and accrued tourney credits by departing schools over the next 4 years. The three schools will thus receive $20 million over the next 4 years.

At the conclusion of this span in 2018, Uconn, USF, and Cincy will receive an estimated $500,000 per school based on an NCAA performance projection of a conference more in keeping with results from a conference like the west coast conference or the missouri valley rather than the old Big East.

Most realize that the AAC took a substantial revenue hit with their new tv contract, which pays approximately $1.8 million a year, or about 1/2 of what the schools earned pre-2012.

The common wisdom suggests that the aforementioned schols have a period of 4 to 5 years during which they can retain some revenue advantage, spruce up their resumes, and not degrade to the point of no return.

I posit, and the data seems to indicate, that that premise is quite reasonable. The revenue in year 4, based on how the units are calculated and distributed, seem to indicate that the budgets will be busted at that time by the exhaustion of the credits and the payment under the AAC contract.

For example, in 2012 Uconn received a distribution from the Big East of approximately $7 million.

In 2019, each AAC school will receive $2 million from the CFP. The bowl distribution will total about $350,000 per school. Thus Uconn will receive $4.1 million from the AAC, including tourney credits, CFP distributions, bowl distributions and tv revenue.

In 2012, Uconn received $7 million from the Big East.

Uconn's travel budget will also increase. WVU saw a $2 million increase in its Big 12 travel related expenses. Uconn sponsors more sports, and its travel is just as bad/costly as WVU.

Admittedly while one can't predict revenue from ticket sales, a Uconn report prepared by McKinsey indicates that total ticket revenue was down in 2012. http://ctmirror.org/reduced-resources-uconn-sports/ Since then, Ucon has sold fewer season tickets, fewer game day tickets, both in football (highest revenue sport) as well as both men's and women's basketball.

Reduced resources’ for UConn sports
"The sports teams at the University of Connecticut are facing fiscal challenges, the president's athletics advisory committee wrote in its annual report to school President Susan Herbst."

The AAC home schedule isn't as attractive as the old Big East one, so this will continue to be a negative trend.

So increasing expenses combined with a radical reduction in revenue is a very gad situation for a school to be in.

As for Cincy, based on the revenue gains from Nippert's renovation, including high value luxury suites, Cincy has bought itself a bit more time. A study indicates that such renovation will generate an additional $3 per year after construction costs. A start, but obviously only enough to tread water. http://archive.cincinnati.com/article/20...ncial-game

So for those who fail to see the urgency that a school like Uconn (and Cincy) are in, this should give you an idea as to why such thinking is wrong. So the snide remarks about these schools being "stuck" in the AAC can be seen as hurtful, and I feel it's wrong when they're made fun of for trying to improve their AD's.

I don't see the AAC on your chart.

(12-22-2014 08:16 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  I don't see the AAC on your chart.

There was no AAC in 2012-13.

(12-22-2014 08:16 AM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(12-21-2014 10:35 PM)BE4evah Wrote:  As can be seen from the following chart, the AAC is looking at a 6 to 8 fold decrease in NCAA unit distributions:



As it stands, the AAC will distribute approximately $5 million to USF, Cincy and Uconn in exit fees and accrued tourney credits by departing schools over the next 4 years. The three schools will thus receive $20 million over the next 4 years.

At the conclusion of this span in 2018, Uconn, USF, and Cincy will receive an estimated $500,000 per school based on an NCAA performance projection of a conference more in keeping with results from a conference like the west coast conference or the missouri valley rather than the old Big East.

Most realize that the AAC took a substantial revenue hit with their new tv contract, which pays approximately $1.8 million a year, or about 1/2 of what the schools earned pre-2012.

The common wisdom suggests that the aforementioned schols have a period of 4 to 5 years during which they can retain some revenue advantage, spruce up their resumes, and not degrade to the point of no return.

I posit, and the data seems to indicate, that that premise is quite reasonable. The revenue in year 4, based on how the units are calculated and distributed, seem to indicate that the budgets will be busted at that time by the exhaustion of the credits and the payment under the AAC contract.

For example, in 2012 Uconn received a distribution from the Big East of approximately $7 million.

In 2019, each AAC school will receive $2 million from the CFP. The bowl distribution will total about $350,000 per school. Thus Uconn will receive $4.1 million from the AAC, including tourney credits, CFP distributions, bowl distributions and tv revenue.

In 2012, Uconn received $7 million from the Big East.

Uconn's travel budget will also increase. WVU saw a $2 million increase in its Big 12 travel related expenses. Uconn sponsors more sports, and its travel is just as bad/costly as WVU.

Admittedly while one can't predict revenue from ticket sales, a Uconn report prepared by McKinsey indicates that total ticket revenue was down in 2012. http://ctmirror.org/reduced-resources-uconn-sports/ Since then, Ucon has sold fewer season tickets, fewer game day tickets, both in football (highest revenue sport) as well as both men's and women's basketball.

Reduced resources’ for UConn sports
"The sports teams at the University of Connecticut are facing fiscal challenges, the president's athletics advisory committee wrote in its annual report to school President Susan Herbst."

The AAC home schedule isn't as attractive as the old Big East one, so this will continue to be a negative trend.

So increasing expenses combined with a radical reduction in revenue is a very gad situation for a school to be in.

As for Cincy, based on the revenue gains from Nippert's renovation, including high value luxury suites, Cincy has bought itself a bit more time. A study indicates that such renovation will generate an additional $3 per year after construction costs. A start, but obviously only enough to tread water. http://archive.cincinnati.com/article/20...ncial-game

So for those who fail to see the urgency that a school like Uconn (and Cincy) are in, this should give you an idea as to why such thinking is wrong. So the snide remarks about these schools being "stuck" in the AAC can be seen as hurtful, and I feel it's wrong when they're made fun of for trying to improve their AD's.

I don't see the AAC on your chart.

It's a 2013 chart.

(12-22-2014 02:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  UConn's travel costs increasing?

look at their road fb games next 4 years
2015- UCF, Cincy, Temple, Tulane 1223, 800, 234, 1447 (avg of 926 miles)
2016- ECU, Houston, Navy, USF 651, 1800, 355, 1278 (avg of 1021 miles)
2017- UCF, Cincy, SMU, Temple 1223, 800, 234, 1718 (avg of 993 miles)
2018- ECU, Memphis, USF, Tulsa 951,1278, 1266, 1502 (avg of 1249 miles)

compare to
2012- Rutgers, Syracuse, USF, Louisville 177, 275, 951, 898 (avg of 575 miles)
2011- WVU, Pitt, Cincy 548, 501, 799 (avg of 616 miles)

so for UConn, it's a difference of 3 of the 4 years about 400 miles. 1 year is about double. It's not like WVU at all- the CLOSEST team that WVU has now is 850 miles away. where before outside of USF- they were within 550 miles of each team. So no, travel is not remotely comparable for UConn than it was WVU- not in the least.

And the tickets in basketball frankly is a bull**** thing. The only reason why conference attendance was down in 2013-14 season vs 2012-13 was the Temple game was during a snowstorm. If not, it was within 300 tickets.

The one thing with the AAC- by the time all the departed money is done- the TV deal is up. If the AAC performs on the court, they would get a big bump and make up for the NCAA tourney money drop off.

Steve, you're wrong about UConn's attendance because you're using the wrong base.

You're comparing UConn's 2013-14 attendance (10,100) to its 2012-13 attendance (10,700). The problem with that is that the 2012-13 attendance was already artificially depressed by almost 2000 per game from 2011-12 (12,600), which is more in line with where UConn attendance had normally been.

In 2012-13, UConn was living with an NCAA tournament ban. As a result of the penalties for its infractions, 2 starters from its national championship team transferred out and a third left for the NBA, a player who might have stayed another year had things otherwise been normal. That was simply not a normal year and therefore can't year be used as the base for purposes of comparison.

2013-14 should have been a year in which UConn attendance bounced back to something like what it head been in 2011-12. Instead, it fell even further from its low point in 2012-13. When viewed in this context, the real drop in attendance from 2011-12 to 2013-14 is 2500 per game. There is no way that a single snow storm affecting the Temple game can begin to explain that.

If the AAC deal ends and the next deal isn't a respectable increase, then expect the conference to fall apart. The MW will be in great shape if it can live long enough to see that day.

(12-22-2014 08:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  If the AAC deal ends and the next deal isn't a respectable increase, then expect the conference to fall apart. The MW will be in great shape if it can live long enough to see that day.

Why? Where's anybody going? Geographically tight conferences? So Tulane grouping with ULL, ULM, LT, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, MEmphis, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky?

You're worried about Houston and SMU going to the Mountain West? For the same money? San Diego is further from Houston than Orlando is. So what's the point?

MAybe you could see the top 9-10 G5 schools grouping together if there were $5M per school on the table. BYU, Boise, San Diego State, Northern Illinois, Houston, UCF or USF, ECU, Memphis and UConn for hoops. Cincinatti too. But I don't see a TV network opening themselves to the lawsuits from the left-behind conferences, and I don't see the Powers That Be loosening the NCAA autobid requirements or getting that group a slice of the CFP pie.

TLDR nobody's going nowhere.

(12-22-2014 08:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  If the AAC deal ends and the next deal isn't a respectable increase, then expect the conference to fall apart. The MW will be in great shape if it can live long enough to see that day.

Where do you think they would go? What schools would be better to align with?

Tulsa, Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati keep coming back together. MVC, CUSA, AAC.

For somebody whose screen name suggests he is a Big East fan, you sure do spend a lot of time fixated on the AAC. Do you ever post about your own conference?

Houston, Tulsa, and SMU could sell themselves as a package unit. UTEP can also tag along. The MW then becomes the strongest G5 league and commands a payout that is comparable to if not even better than the AAC deal (which isn't that hard to beat). Adding the four brings the MW firmly into Texas - which they haven't had since TCU.

UConn goes to the Big East if it hasn't been snapped up by the B1G. Temple could do an A10-type arrangement. Both have their biggest 'value' in basketball. Cincy and Memphis will get their Big XII wish - even if it doesn't happen immediately.

I am not sure what ECU, UCF, and USF would do - but they'd surely get to pick their G5 league and may even rebuild the AAC as something that they really want.

Where does Tulane go? Well, that really doesn't matter. No one in the AAC is that beholden to Tulane, and they could really wind up in trouble if the AAC collapses in the wrong manner.

These schools don't really want to be together. They all want something different, and they're willing to slice open each other's throats to get it.

(12-22-2014 09:27 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 08:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  If the AAC deal ends and the next deal isn't a respectable increase, then expect the conference to fall apart. The MW will be in great shape if it can live long enough to see that day.

Why? Where's anybody going? Geographically tight conferences? So Tulane grouping with ULL, ULM, LT, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, MEmphis, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky?

You're worried about Houston and SMU going to the Mountain West? For the same money? San Diego is further from Houston than Orlando is. So what's the point?

MAybe you could see the top 9-10 G5 schools grouping together if there were $5M per school on the table. BYU, Boise, San Diego State, Northern Illinois, Houston, UCF or USF, ECU, Memphis and UConn for hoops. Cincinatti too. But I don't see a TV network opening themselves to the lawsuits from the left-behind conferences, and I don't see the Powers That Be loosening the NCAA autobid requirements or getting that group a slice of the CFP pie.

TLDR nobody's going nowhere.

That's not enough to have a conference that spread out. You need $20 million minimum for it to work out. Even then, it may not be enough with empty stadiums as fans don't want that type of conference to see team they have no knowledge or any relation to.

(12-22-2014 09:48 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Houston, Tulsa, and SMU could sell themselves as a package unit. UTEP can also tag along. The MW then becomes the strongest G5 league and commands a payout that is comparable to if not even better than the AAC deal (which isn't that hard to beat). Adding the four brings the MW firmly into Texas - which they haven't had since TCU.

Their payout is already within a couple nickels of the AAC. What's in it for UH and SMU to fly to Boise and San Diego and Colorado Springs instead of Memphis and Orlando and Cincinnati?

Quote:These schools don't really want to be together.

Not really, but they surely don't want to be in a conference with their dirt-necked country-cousin community-college lower-FBS neighbors. (Sentiments aren't mine, they're how the AAC schools feel about their CUSA and SBC neighbors.)

Tulane does NOT want a conference with ULL and ULM and LT. UCF does not want to be in a league with F_U. USF didn't want to be in a league with UCF, but they're stuck. Memphis doesn't want to be in a league with Middle Tennessee or Arkansas State if they can avoid it. And thanks to the AAC, they can.

Quote: They all want something different, and they're willing to slice open each other's throats to get it.

No, they all want into a P5 conference, and they'd happily slit each others throats to get there, but that's not happening. At least for a while.

(12-22-2014 08:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  If the AAC deal ends and the next deal isn't a respectable increase, then expect the conference to fall apart. The MW will be in great shape if it can live long enough to see that day.

It won't fall apart. No one has a better landing place than this. Until the P5 expand everyone is staying where they are. The current TV deal is biggest of G5 and likely will get bigger.

(12-22-2014 09:58 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 09:48 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  Houston, Tulsa, and SMU could sell themselves as a package unit. UTEP can also tag along. The MW then becomes the strongest G5 league and commands a payout that is comparable to if not even better than the AAC deal (which isn't that hard to beat). Adding the four brings the MW firmly into Texas - which they haven't had since TCU.

Their payout is already within a couple nickels of the AAC. What's in it for UH and SMU to fly to Boise and San Diego and Colorado Springs instead of Memphis and Orlando and Cincinnati?

Quote:These schools don't really want to be together.

Not really, but they surely don't want to be in a conference with their dirt-necked country-cousin community-college lower-FBS neighbors. (Sentiments aren't mine, they're how the AAC schools feel about their CUSA and SBC neighbors.)

Tulane does NOT want a conference with ULL and ULM and LT. UCF does not want to be in a league with F_U. USF didn't want to be in a league with UCF, but they're stuck. Memphis doesn't want to be in a league with Middle Tennessee or Arkansas State if they can avoid it. And thanks to the AAC, they can.

Quote: They all want something different, and they're willing to slice open each other's throats to get it.

No, they all want into a P5 conference, and they'd happily slit each others throats to get there, but that's not happening. At least for a while.

That's why I say the ideal is teams who are close but NOT TOO close.

If you are overlapping areas in the battle for media attention and the battle for casual fans you are too close and not getting in that group. If anyone looks at the long-term health of the program, they also don't want to overlap primary recruiting areas

(12-22-2014 09:27 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 08:56 AM)oliveandblue Wrote:  If the AAC deal ends and the next deal isn't a respectable increase, then expect the conference to fall apart. The MW will be in great shape if it can live long enough to see that day.

Why? Where's anybody going? Geographically tight conferences? So Tulane grouping with ULL, ULM, LT, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, MEmphis, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky?

You're worried about Houston and SMU going to the Mountain West? For the same money? San Diego is further from Houston than Orlando is. So what's the point?

MAybe you could see the top 9-10 G5 schools grouping together if there were $5M per school on the table. BYU, Boise, San Diego State, Northern Illinois, Houston, UCF or USF, ECU, Memphis and UConn for hoops. Cincinatti too. But I don't see a TV network opening themselves to the lawsuits from the left-behind conferences, and I don't see the Powers That Be loosening the NCAA autobid requirements or getting that group a slice of the CFP pie.

TLDR nobody's going nowhere.

Since when has tv been concerned with the comsequences of left behind conferences? The SWC and old Big East are both gone---largely due to tv. It's just business.

Although the OP went into a very long explanation what the chart meant. It is still not clear to me how you could draw that conclusion just by using that chart. Where is the chart that shows the 2014+ numbers?

A + B = C, but you don't know B and C. You only know A. So you can not calculate C.