(12-22-2014 11:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Obama is a scumbag because Obama is a scumbag. Even scumbags do the right thing occasionally.

Insightful as always!

(12-22-2014 07:26 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 07:19 AM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  Fidel is 88 and Raul is 83. Both will dead within a decade. So opening relations with Cuba now will get the next leader the cover needed to expand those relations without contradicting the Castros. If they were to die without ever thawing relations with the USA, then it would be politically difficult for Cuba's next leader to do it with the long shadow of the Castros on him.

A similar logic could be used that due to the age of Cuban refugees in America represent a waning political force, thus making this position more palatable. I agree with the normalization, even if the Castros take all the money as is their wont. But what I don't have is a good response to justify such a reversal to people who gave up everything.

One thing we have to consider here. It is being reported that talks behind the scenes have been ongoing for 18 months. We have to understand that NOTHING happens on that island without the approval of Fidel. We have to assume he is on board with this. Cubans make aprox $20 per month plus a food voucher book. If US money gets them $40 per month and a larger food voucher?..even under that current socialist system... We come out as winners with the people. The report on 60 minutes last night reveals that the Cuban people fully understand that socialism has failed them. They openly whisper that to journalists. It looks like the timing for this is optimal. We can plant the seeds of freedom now without antagonizing this regime. I think we need to go slow and keep an eye on what happens..but..It looks like a no lose situation for the US.

My son has several good Vietnamese friends, and I think of what has happened in the Vietnamese exile community. They were thrown out of their country in ways similar to the Cuban exiles, and with a lot of the same residual anger. But once Vietnam started opening back up, guess what? They've got cousins and other family back home, and they jumped into business ventures with them. I'm aware of several who have accumulated tidy fortunes in the last few years. I don't see why we can't work the same deal with the Cuban exiles. Get them in on the ground floor of the resort hotels and casinos and sugar cane ethanol businesses. They left because they were capitalists, they're not going to turn down the chance to make money. Obviously the Castros have to be onboard with this, but I'd have to believe we have someone who is a good enough negotiator to get that done.

(12-22-2014 02:14 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  My son has several good Vietnamese friends, and I think of what has happened in the Vietnamese exile community. They were thrown out of their country in ways similar to the Cuban exiles, and with a lot of the same residual anger. But once Vietnam started opening back up, guess what? They've got cousins and other family back home, and they jumped into business ventures with them. I'm aware of several who have accumulated tidy fortunes in the last few years. I don't see why we can't work the same deal with the Cuban exiles. Get them in on the ground floor of the resort hotels and casinos and sugar cane ethanol businesses. They left because they were capitalists, they're not going to turn down the chance to make money. Obviously the Castros have to be onboard with this, but I'd have to believe we have someone who is a good enough negotiator to get that done.

According to 60 minutes last night Raul has already allowed limited private property in regard to some of the hotels and businesses. I think the Castro's have a plan to improve Cuba as much as they can while still maintaining as much of their socialist mantra as possible. Using the US and its money is the easiest way to achieve that goal. They are old men. They want to go out as heroes to the people.

Another consideration that I don't think people are paying attention to. Does anyone want 2 million Cubans trying to float to Florida next year or in 2016 if the Cuban economy implodes again?

(12-22-2014 03:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Another consideration that I don't think people are paying attention to. Does anyone want 2 million Cubans trying to float to Florida next year or in 2016 if the Cuban economy implodes again?

No...In fact I'd hope many expats would want to eventually return home.

(12-22-2014 01:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:21 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Tough spot for Rubio.

How so?

I think he risks losing support from Cuban-Americans in Florida if he supports relations with Cuba. I just saw in the USA Today, I think, that 83% or so of Cuban-Americans over the age of 55 or 60 do not support relations with Cuba. Marco's parents are probably included in that. Also having personal connections to the dictatorship in Cuba makes it almost impossible for him to support Cuba. So he's in a tough spot because Paul can support the more popular opinion, while Rubio's hands are sort of tied.

(12-23-2014 12:52 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 01:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:21 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Tough spot for Rubio.

How so?

I think he risks losing support from Cuban-Americans in Florida if he supports relations with Cuba. I just saw in the USA Today, I think, that 83% or so of Cuban-Americans over the age of 55 or 60 do not support relations with Cuba. Marco's parents are probably included in that. Also having personal connections to the dictatorship in Cuba makes it almost impossible for him to support Cuba. So he's in a tough spot because Paul can support the more popular opinion, while Rubio's hands are sort of tied.

Both Rubio and Jeb Bush's designs on the White House are predicated on winning the Florida GOP Primary. This puts them in a bad place because opening up Cuba is popular across the board (even in Florida - just not in the primary). Cruz is likely to be on the 'prevent opening up to Cuba' as well.

Basically, this is low hanging fruit for the Dems. They'll lose no votes with it. Its the correct decision for the country. It carries little risk for them. Meanwhile, it puts the GOP's less conservative wing (Rubio/Bush) in a situation they don't want to be in. Its not a major issue, but its' going to cause issues for the GOP.

Furthermore, if someone who supports the opening to Cuba wins the GOP nomination, it will cause defections from the Batista Cubanos.

There's going to be two Florida candidates in the GOP field, and Bush will crush Rubio. So there's little reason to spend any time talking about Marco.

(12-23-2014 12:52 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 01:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(12-22-2014 12:21 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Tough spot for Rubio.

How so?

I think he risks losing support from Cuban-Americans in Florida if he supports relations with Cuba. I just saw in the USA Today, I think, that 83% or so of Cuban-Americans over the age of 55 or 60 do not support relations with Cuba. Marco's parents are probably included in that. Also having personal connections to the dictatorship in Cuba makes it almost impossible for him to support Cuba. So he's in a tough spot because Paul can support the more popular opinion, while Rubio's hands are sort of tied.

He said he doesn't support the relations and I don't think there enough people outside of Miami that give 2 schist about the issue where they are going to vote for someone else over it. Certainly not a "tough spot" IMO.

(12-23-2014 01:27 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  There's going to be two Florida candidates in the GOP field, and Bush will crush Rubio. So there's little reason to spend any time talking about Marco.

And this issue paints Bush in a corner too. It makes him seem like a supporter of bad foreign policy. And that plus his last name can remind voters about the last Bush's foreign policy blunders.

I think that you are correct. Rubio will go nowhere.