Let's look at it this way: what schools wouldn't get left out under any circumstances? In other words, which schools would be able to copy WVU's move to the Big 12 (i.e. someone would be willing to take them as a huge outlier) in such a scenario? I think there's only 23 schools:

Big 10 (5): Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin
SEC (6): Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M
ACC (4): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State
Big 12 (2): Texas, Oklahoma
Pac (6): USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon

Even though they represent small regions or are second in their region, you should also add the following 5 based on football fan base alone: Iowa, Michigan State, Auburn, South Carolina, Clemson.

And if basketball matters at all, you'd also add 5 more: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, and Arizona. (unlike UConn or Indiana, these also have large football fanbases, or in Duke's case has elite academics to add to the equation). That puts you up to 32: Pac (8), B1G (7), SEC (9), ACC (5), and Big 12 (3)

You've got some huge markets that aren't covered at all: Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, Maryland, and Syracuse almost have to be included. That gets you to 38.

For the final 10 slots, do we go with markets or with athletic program strength?

If we're going for markets, we have to add a few schools that have over 400,000 alums each: Purdue, Indiana, and Rutgers. We'd also add BYU, Boston College, and Ole Miss to include the Mountain West, New England, and Mid South/Delta regions. We'd also double up the major urban centers with Northwestern, Georgia Tech, and UConn. The last spot would go to Pitt. By current conference, that's B1G(14), SEC(11), PAC(9), ACC(9), Big 12(3), American(1), Indy(1)

If we're going for strength of the athletic program, I'd still add Ole Miss and Georgia Tech (so they're in either way). I'd also add West Virginia, Louisville, NC State, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and TCU. The last spot would go to Cincinnati. By current conference, that's SEC(12), B1G(10), PAC(10), ACC(9), Big 12(6), American(1).

But of course, the last several spots would depend on the specific needs of the conference that needs them. A "master planner" scenario almost never considers this.

First of all retraction won't happen. Conferences may expand to 16 each or 2 conferences to reach 14 like the other 3 have. If a P5 breakaway were to happen expansion would happen to retain market shares and interest.

(12-16-2014 08:05 PM)goofus Wrote:  WEST-12
USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma

South-12
Texas A&M, LSU, Arky, Ole Miss, Bama, Auburn, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Tenn, KY, Florida, Florida State

East-12
South Carolina, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Virginia, VT, MD, WV, Rutgers, Syracuse, BC, Notre Dame

North-12
Penn State , Ohio State, Mich, Mich St, Indy, ILL, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Mizzou

left out
Oregon St, Wash St,
Texas Tech, oklahoma St, kansas St, Iowa St, Baylor, TCU,
Miss St, Vanderbilt,
Louisville, Miami, Duke, Wake Forest, Pitt, Purdue, Northwestern

(12-17-2014 10:37 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  I think that SU and BC have too much tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money. I'd go with Utah, Rutgers, and NCSU.

I would double check that history. Rutgers (founded 1766) and the University of Utah (founded 1850) have been around longer than Syracuse and Boston College.

(12-17-2014 03:10 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:37 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  I think that SU and BC have too much tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money. I'd go with Utah, Rutgers, and NCSU.

I would double check that history. Rutgers (founded 1766) and the University of Utah (founded 1850) have been around longer than Syracuse and Boston College.

I would double check *your* history. RU didn't play meaningful football before '06 (and yes, I know they played in the first college game) and Utah didn't play meaningful football until '05.

SU and BC have played pretty close to 75-100 years of meaningful football (i.e. "tradition"). Age of the school is irrelevant. Otherwise, the University of Al-Karaouine would be a prized possession for *any* conference. It was founded in 859, making it over 630 years older that European knowledge of the Americas. However, I don't see them popping up in too many conference realignment scenarios.

(12-17-2014 12:46 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:37 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:27 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:10 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 12:08 AM)goofus Wrote:  I guess I should have run a 4 × 13 plan, then your 3 extra teams stay could stay plus 1 more.

Or you could just axe 3 different schools.

OK, how about Utah, Boston College and Syracuse?

I think that SU and BC have too much tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money. I'd go with Utah, Rutgers, and NCSU.

Lots of schools have "tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money." That's the point. There aren't any schools you can leave out that aren't willing to leave voluntarily and that's just not happening barring a seismic shift in national economics (and maybe not even then). I obviously picked Syracuse because you are a Syracuse fan, hoping that you would see that no matter which school you chose, there are reasons that people would have for their inclusion. So any school you choose to "kick out" of the power structure is simply arbitrary.

But let's go beyond that. The relationships built through the conference model wouldn't permit even the discussion of who would be left out. The first guy to bring it up in a serious manner would be laughed out of the room and ostracized.

"Lots of schools have 'tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money.'"
No, they don't. *That* is the point. The vast majority of schools don't. There are even a number of power conference schools that don't. Anyway, there are, by definition, only 48 schools in the world with a combination of those factors that puts them in the top 48. So, your feel good "we're all winners" point fails on that ground.

"I obviously picked Syracuse because you are a Syracuse fan..."
Yeah... your trolling wasn't subtle.

"The first guy to bring it up in a serious manner would be laughed out of the room and ostracized."
This is a hypothetical "what if." So no, you are, by definition, wrong.

(12-17-2014 09:37 AM)ken d Wrote:  That kind of makes this exercise pointless.

The other thing that make all of these threads pointless is :

1. The current 128 FBS schools and 10 conferences have a signed agreement for the next 12 years.... Thats right folks 12
So nobody is leaving or being left out for the next dozen years.
So if you want to start knocking yourself out on this discussion about a decade from now go ahead.

2. The other thing that is not going to change is the 4 team model
for the championship. The head of the committee just restated
that as well. They had considered 6 team, 8 team , 12 team and 16 team . They chose 4 and they chose 4 for 12 years.

See you in 2025 when you can restart the discussion

All of these guesses are wonderful but they all follow the same flawed Internet forum formulas for success.

It's about one thing at the end of they day, $$$

(12-17-2014 04:13 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  All of these guesses are wonderful but they all follow the same flawed Internet forum formulas for success.

It's about one thing at the end of they day, $$$

Yes and No...remember college Presidents are part of the process.

(12-17-2014 03:40 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:10 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I would double check that history. Rutgers (founded 1766) and the University of Utah (founded 1850) have been around longer than Syracuse and Boston College.

I would double check *your* history. RU didn't play meaningful football before '06 (and yes, I know they played in the first college game) and Utah didn't play meaningful football until '05.

SU and BC have played pretty close to 75-100 years of meaningful football (i.e. "tradition").

If you want to go back 75-100 years, Ike Armstrong's Utah teams would have eaten Vic Hanson for lunch.

(12-17-2014 07:08 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:40 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 03:10 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  I would double check that history. Rutgers (founded 1766) and the University of Utah (founded 1850) have been around longer than Syracuse and Boston College.

I would double check *your* history. RU didn't play meaningful football before '06 (and yes, I know they played in the first college game) and Utah didn't play meaningful football until '05.

SU and BC have played pretty close to 75-100 years of meaningful football (i.e. "tradition").

If you want to go back 75-100 years, Ike Armstrong's Utah teams would have eaten Vic Hanson for lunch.

...and yet your first major bowl was in 2005, whereas the 1915 Syracuse team turned down the Rose Bowl. The truth is that Syracuse accomplished way more than Utah, and we played Colgate (when they were winning NC's), Cornell (when they were winning NC), Pitt (when they were winning NC's), PSU (when they were winning NC's), Miami (when they were winning NC's). To imply that we haven't competed on a major scale is rich coming from a fan of a program that didn't consistently play 4 real teams a year until 2011.

Until the mid 2000's Utah's football tradition was about as great as the last decade of Syracuse football.

lol at these unrealistic hypothetical conferences.

(12-17-2014 07:04 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 04:13 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  All of these guesses are wonderful but they all follow the same flawed Internet forum formulas for success.

It's about one thing at the end of they day, $$$

Yes and No...remember college Presidents are part of the process.

And they REALLY only care about money.

(12-17-2014 03:46 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 12:46 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:37 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:27 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(12-17-2014 10:10 AM)nzmorange Wrote:  Or you could just axe 3 different schools.

OK, how about Utah, Boston College and Syracuse?

I think that SU and BC have too much tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money. I'd go with Utah, Rutgers, and NCSU.

Lots of schools have "tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money." That's the point. There aren't any schools you can leave out that aren't willing to leave voluntarily and that's just not happening barring a seismic shift in national economics (and maybe not even then). I obviously picked Syracuse because you are a Syracuse fan, hoping that you would see that no matter which school you chose, there are reasons that people would have for their inclusion. So any school you choose to "kick out" of the power structure is simply arbitrary.

But let's go beyond that. The relationships built through the conference model wouldn't permit even the discussion of who would be left out. The first guy to bring it up in a serious manner would be laughed out of the room and ostracized.

"Lots of schools have 'tradition, upside, relevant rivalries, and money.'"
No, they don't. *That* is the point. The vast majority of schools don't. There are even a number of power conference schools that don't. Anyway, there are, by definition, only 48 schools in the world with a combination of those factors that puts them in the top 48. So, your feel good "we're all winners" point fails on that ground.

"I obviously picked Syracuse because you are a Syracuse fan..."
Yeah... your trolling wasn't subtle.

"The first guy to bring it up in a serious manner would be laughed out of the room and ostracized."
This is a hypothetical "what if." So no, you are, by definition, wrong.

So much fail in this post, it's difficult to know where to begin.

I started to tell you where and why, but why bother? I'll leave you guys to your fantasy world in the round.

(12-17-2014 12:58 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Let's look at it this way: what schools wouldn't get left out under any circumstances? In other words, which schools would be able to copy WVU's move to the Big 12 (i.e. someone would be willing to take them as a huge outlier) in such a scenario? I think there's only 23 schools:

Big 10 (5): Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin
SEC (6): Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M
ACC (4): North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State
Big 12 (2): Texas, Oklahoma
Pac (6): USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Washington, Oregon

Even though they represent small regions or are second in their region, you should also add the following 5 based on football fan base alone: Iowa, Michigan State, Auburn, South Carolina, Clemson.

And if basketball matters at all, you'd also add 5 more: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, and Arizona. (unlike UConn or Indiana, these also have large football fanbases, or in Duke's case has elite academics to add to the equation). That puts you up to 32: Pac (8), B1G (7), SEC (9), ACC (5), and Big 12 (3)

You've got some huge markets that aren't covered at all: Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, Colorado, Maryland, and Syracuse almost have to be included. That gets you to 38.

For the final 10 slots, do we go with markets or with athletic program strength?

If we're going for markets, we have to add a few schools that have over 400,000 alums each: Purdue, Indiana, and Rutgers. We'd also add BYU, Boston College, and Ole Miss to include the Mountain West, New England, and Mid South/Delta regions. We'd also double up the major urban centers with Northwestern, Georgia Tech, and UConn. The last spot would go to Pitt. By current conference, that's B1G(14), SEC(11), PAC(9), ACC(9), Big 12(3), American(1), Indy(1)

If we're going for strength of the athletic program, I'd still add Ole Miss and Georgia Tech (so they're in either way). I'd also add West Virginia, Louisville, NC State, Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, and TCU. The last spot would go to Cincinnati. By current conference, that's SEC(12), B1G(10), PAC(10), ACC(9), Big 12(6), American(1).

But of course, the last several spots would depend on the specific needs of the conference that needs them. A "master planner" scenario almost never considers this.

If you are going by strength of athletic program, how is Baylor not at the top of your list? They have been to 5 straight bowl games, 2 Elite 8's and a Sweet 16 over the past 5 seasons, and their women's basketball team has been to 1 Sweet 16 - 2 Elite 8's - 1 Final Four and won the National title in the past five seasons. I could go deeper, but those are the sports that matter. Some of those you listed don't even come close to that success.

(12-17-2014 10:35 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  So much fail in this post, it's difficult to know where to begin.

I started to tell you where and why, but why bother? I'll leave you guys to your fantasy world in the round.

It sounds like you don't have the stones to admit you are wrong, and that you ran out of real estate trying to defend an obviously flawed position.