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Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
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JRsec Offline
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Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
Rumors of Expansion: The mere threat of expansion in the Big 12 with more G5 schools could be a trigger to other conferences, or networks to make concessions to the Big 12. They could want everyone's approval for holding a CCG with just 10 schools, or they could be pressuring for little brother invitations from other conferences in the event of movement, or they could be threatening network plans to get any or all of the above.

But What If They Issue an Actual Invitation: Here is where Big 12 math could become a bit tricky. In the Big 12 a membership vote requires the same 3/4's approval as dissolution does. Let's say Cincinnati is invited for membership and that everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas vote for it. Cincinnati is in. But then a new GOR needs to be signed, especially with dissenting votes for additional membership. GOR's have to be unanimous to be effective. So Texas by permitting a vote on an invitation to a prospective member could allow the voting to go the way of the new candidate, and then having dissented on new membership refuse to sign a new GOR. Now a vote on dissolution is not needed to move, just two years notification to avoid exit fees. The same could be true for Oklahoma and Kansas. So if an invitation is forthcoming the aftermath could get quite interesting.
(This post was last modified: 12-16-2014 02:06 PM by JRsec.)
12-16-2014 02:04 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
Sneaky Texans!
12-16-2014 04:32 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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RE: Could rumors of...
(12-16-2014 02:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  But What If They Issue an Actual Invitation: Here is where Big 12 math could become a bit tricky. In the Big 12 a membership vote requires the same 3/4's approval as dissolution does. Let's say Cincinnati is invited for membership and that everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas vote for it. Cincinnati is in. But then a new GOR needs to be signed, especially with dissenting votes for additional membership. GOR's have to be unanimous to be effective. So Texas by permitting a vote on an invitation to a prospective member could allow the voting to go the way of the new candidate, and then having dissented on new membership refuse to sign a new GOR. Now a vote on dissolution is not needed to move, just two years notification to avoid exit fees. The same could be true for Oklahoma and Kansas. So if an invitation is forthcoming the aftermath could get quite interesting.

Well, Bowlsby has come out again saying they won't expand. However, that scenario you presented is quite interesting. The way I could see this happening:

- They bring in X and Y. Then at the end of the GoR, Texas goes to ACC, OU to SEC and KU to Big Ten. KU and UCONN (assuming UCONN has acquired enough academic creds by then) would most likely be the pair. OU would likely be paired with WV, not Okie State, and Texas would have a ND-style deal. X and Y are stuck with nowhere else to go but so are the others:

TT, OSU, BU, TCU, KSU, ISU, X, Y

Where X and Y are from would tell where the B12 would refill from. If WV goes SEC and X/Y are from the West then they abandon the East and refill from the West. If X is BYU and Y is Colorado State, they'd probably add another Texas school and one more from the West.

If X and Y are from the East then it gets interesting. A Cinci or UCF would be isolated if WV goes. The B12 may need to add a few schools closer to them but the choices won't be as attractive.
12-16-2014 06:49 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-16-2014 02:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Rumors of Expansion: The mere threat of expansion in the Big 12 with more G5 schools could be a trigger to other conferences, or networks to make concessions to the Big 12. They could want everyone's approval for holding a CCG with just 10 schools, or they could be pressuring for little brother invitations from other conferences in the event of movement, or they could be threatening network plans to get any or all of the above.

But What If They Issue an Actual Invitation: Here is where Big 12 math could become a bit tricky. In the Big 12 a membership vote requires the same 3/4's approval as dissolution does. Let's say Cincinnati is invited for membership and that everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas vote for it. Cincinnati is in. But then a new GOR needs to be signed, especially with dissenting votes for additional membership. GOR's have to be unanimous to be effective. So Texas by permitting a vote on an invitation to a prospective member could allow the voting to go the way of the new candidate, and then having dissented on new membership refuse to sign a new GOR. Now a vote on dissolution is not needed to move, just two years notification to avoid exit fees. The same could be true for Oklahoma and Kansas. So if an invitation is forthcoming the aftermath could get quite interesting.

Both are interesting theories, but I think the B12 lacks the cohesion for either of the moves. ESPN has a great deal of input with the SEC and ACC. Both FOX and ESPN play parts in Delany's decision making. Scott is somewhat on his own with the PAC. The B12 is the only place with multiple spheres of influence (ESPN, FOX, UT, OU, everyone else) that ultimately prevent any true synergy. Bowsly's conference is that most interesting version of 'The Prisoner's Dilemma' that I've ever seen. I can't wait to see what happens when we get to year 9 of the GOR. When Texas and Oklahoma refuse to sign, I expect all hell to break loose.
12-17-2014 09:02 AM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-16-2014 02:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Rumors of Expansion: The mere threat of expansion in the Big 12 with more G5 schools could be a trigger to other conferences, or networks to make concessions to the Big 12. They could want everyone's approval for holding a CCG with just 10 schools, or they could be pressuring for little brother invitations from other conferences in the event of movement, or they could be threatening network plans to get any or all of the above.

But What If They Issue an Actual Invitation: Here is where Big 12 math could become a bit tricky. In the Big 12 a membership vote requires the same 3/4's approval as dissolution does. Let's say Cincinnati is invited for membership and that everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas vote for it. Cincinnati is in. But then a new GOR needs to be signed, especially with dissenting votes for additional membership. GOR's have to be unanimous to be effective. So Texas by permitting a vote on an invitation to a prospective member could allow the voting to go the way of the new candidate, and then having dissented on new membership refuse to sign a new GOR. Now a vote on dissolution is not needed to move, just two years notification to avoid exit fees. The same could be true for Oklahoma and Kansas. So if an invitation is forthcoming the aftermath could get quite interesting.

In that scenario, Cincy wouldn't get in - 3 votes against means only 70% for, not 3/4th of the vote. But the principle applies. If this is the way it works, that is fascinating.
12-17-2014 12:18 PM
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jhawkmvp Offline
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
The B12 will not expand with the candidates currently available at this time, but if they did they would probably make the invitations contingent on a GoR extension being signed by everyone as well. But with B12 leadership who knows.
12-17-2014 07:01 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
I can see Kansas voting for Cincinnati as they'd have access to new BB recruiting grounds and would add another solid basketball product. That makes 8/10.

The next addition will ultimately be a short-term addition as I think Texas is still angry about the last round of realignment (rumor has it that they didn't get the additions they wanted). I don't know how the Big XII holds on to Texas in the long-term.

The next two additions to the Big XII will have their names dragged through the mud and cursed at for killing the Big XII - even though they will have nothing to do with why the conference died.
12-18-2014 01:01 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-18-2014 01:01 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  I can see Kansas voting for Cincinnati as they'd have access to new BB recruiting grounds and would add another solid basketball product. That makes 8/10.

The next addition will ultimately be a short-term addition as I think Texas is still angry about the last round of realignment (rumor has it that they didn't get the additions they wanted). I don't know how the Big XII holds on to Texas in the long-term.

The next two additions to the Big XII will have their names dragged through the mud and cursed at for killing the Big XII - even though they will have nothing to do with why the conference died.

The same way they remain in the conference right now, straight cash. There might be a lot of gnashing of teeth from Longhorn fans regarding the schedule, but fans will be placated by the upcoming OOC opponents.
12-18-2014 04:03 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-18-2014 04:03 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(12-18-2014 01:01 PM)oliveandblue Wrote:  I can see Kansas voting for Cincinnati as they'd have access to new BB recruiting grounds and would add another solid basketball product. That makes 8/10.

The next addition will ultimately be a short-term addition as I think Texas is still angry about the last round of realignment (rumor has it that they didn't get the additions they wanted). I don't know how the Big XII holds on to Texas in the long-term.

The next two additions to the Big XII will have their names dragged through the mud and cursed at for killing the Big XII - even though they will have nothing to do with why the conference died.

The same way they remain in the conference right now, straight cash. There might be a lot of gnashing of teeth from Longhorn fans regarding the schedule, but fans will be placated by the upcoming OOC opponents.

If they played 3 top P5 schools OOC annually then yes this might be possible, but they don't. And if they play only 2 then it is more than likely that both are home and home and alternated, which means that there is only 1 P5 opponent of note coming into Austin each year. I hardly call that enough to keep the locals happy! Especially if that one is B.Y.U. or Ole Miss and they embarrass you at home.
12-18-2014 05:19 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Let's say Texas and West Virginia move to the ACC and OU, KU move to which ever conference offers the best deal. How would the B12 react?

1st scenario: Go east

Losing Texas means they'll need another Texas school to help patch up. Enter Houston. With a fourth Texas school they'd continue to move East. Tulane and Memphis join up, deal a big blow to the AAC. Further blows are made when Cincinnati and UCF join up, going into the states of Ohio and Florida. Who would be #12?

Candidates: Northern Illinois, East Carolina, USF, UConn

USF

Advantages: School close to and rival of UCF. Good academics. Another Florida school.

Disadvantages: Calling up two more Florida schools may dilute too much the talent there. Lack of On-campus stadium.

UConn

Advantages: Populous New England market and claims to part of the New York market. Two very competitive basketball programs. Good academics.

Disadvantages: Lack of FBS history. Recent football performances an issue. Distance from most B12 schools. Football stadium off-campus.

Northern Illinois

Advantages: Located close to the Chicago market. Making strides in the football program. Plans to renovate and expand the stadium. Would help bridge gap between plains and Midwest/Upper South schools.

Disadvantages: Not a brand name. Can they spend the money needed to upgrade the facilities? Would need to show ability to recruit better players.

East Carolina

Advantages: Competitive football program. Passionate fanbase. Arguably the better football program in NC.

Disadvantages: With the ACC in the same state the other conferences may not want to elevate a fifth NC program. Academics an issue. Lack of basketball prowess.


2nd scenario: Going west

They give up on the Eastern markets and shift focus westwards. Houston would still be called up to replace UT. Colorado State and New Mexico would likely join, as the B12 remnants collectively are a step above the MWC in competition. Would BYU be interested?

Other candidates: Nevada, Boise State, UNLV, San Diego State, UTEP


Even with just Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, OK State, K State, and I-State there is still something to build around. AAC is not a good alternative for those schools. They'd have to pull together and take in the best programs available from the Group of Five stash.
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2014 02:39 AM by Transic_nyc.)
12-28-2014 02:39 AM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
What about the Big Ten going after Texas Tech? (If they can't land Texas?) Texas Tech is looking like it could reach AAU status as soon as 2017.

Kansas and Texas Tech in the Big Ten West could be an interesting scenario.

But, you have to think that the PAC 12 will make another attempt expansion into Texas. What about Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa St. to the PAC 16?
12-29-2014 05:37 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
Should we start speculating what happens next to the Big 12?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...src=mobile
12-29-2014 08:21 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-29-2014 08:21 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Should we start speculating what happens next to the Big 12?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...src=mobile

Well there is the conundrum. If they don't expand they have the smallest market footprint by far of any conference. Oklahoma and Texas have no other big names to play in conference in football with West Virginia being a strong name, but not a big name. A loss to a TCU or Baylor, or Kansas State sounds far more devastating to the public than it really is, and a perception problem proliferates in such scenarios which of late have been far more common. However, if they add schools the only ones left that would join simply add to the perception problem and in all cases except BYU don't really add enough value to justify the present contract values of the Big 12 being increased.

All of this means that if Oklahoma and Texas want to increase content (and Texas already has essentially done this) they need to make their OOC games content games. But the upside of this is limited since content games would be home and home if they played two P5 content games a year only 1 of them would be at their home site and offers little in the way of what hometown fans want to pay to see. Conference content games is what they need. And in the current Big 12 that is essentially 1 home content conference game a year. This is why I think they eventually dissolve and join other conferences.
01-21-2015 12:51 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(01-21-2015 12:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(12-29-2014 08:21 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Should we start speculating what happens next to the Big 12?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...src=mobile

Well there is the conundrum. If they don't expand they have the smallest market footprint by far of any conference. Oklahoma and Texas have no other big names to play in conference in football with West Virginia being a strong name, but not a big name. A loss to a TCU or Baylor, or Kansas State sounds far more devastating to the public than it really is, and a perception problem proliferates in such scenarios which of late have been far more common. However, if they add schools the only ones left that would join simply add to the perception problem and in all cases except BYU don't really add enough value to justify the present contract values of the Big 12 being increased.

All of this means that if Oklahoma and Texas want to increase content (and Texas already has essentially done this) they need to make their OOC games content games. But the upside of this is limited since content games would be home and home if they played two P5 content games a year only 1 of them would be at their home site and offers little in the way of what hometown fans want to pay to see. Conference content games is what they need. And in the current Big 12 that is essentially 1 home content conference game a year. This is why I think they eventually dissolve and join other conferences.

Even if the Big 12 dissolves Texas does not have a problem like the other 9.
Texas could go anywhere they wanted to, with or without ESPN's blessing. Everybody else is just blowing in the wind including Oklahoma, which then becomes Texas' problem. The Longhorns are being held captive by the dwarfs. The Horns are unable to leave without making sure everybody else is cared for (unless they pull some really slick and underhanded legal maneuver).
And so we sit.............
01-21-2015 01:39 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
Politically, one reason Texas has had for trying to keep the other big schools and their alums in Texas happy was the fight against Gov. Perry over higher education in Texas. They could not afford to lose political allies in that battle. Once Perry is out of office and especially if a Longhorn is elected to office, as currently is expected, Texas will not have that academic fight (they appear to have won anyway) any longer and might feel like they can go their own way in a couple years with a Governor that would let them move freely (like Perry did with A&M).
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2015 01:57 AM by jhawkmvp.)
01-23-2015 12:50 AM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-29-2014 05:37 PM)YNot Wrote:  What about the Big Ten going after Texas Tech? (If they can't land Texas?) Texas Tech is looking like it could reach AAU status as soon as 2017.

Kansas and Texas Tech in the Big Ten West could be an interesting scenario.

But, you have to think that the PAC 12 will make another attempt expansion into Texas. What about Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa St. to the PAC 16?

TTU to the B1G is an extremely long shot. TTU won't have the academic cache to get either AAU or B1G membership anytime soon. It's only hope is that the B1G throws out the AAU standard for membership and that Texas requires TTU be invited if the B1G wants the Longhorns. This is unlikely to happen. Remember the Tech problem email to the B1G from Texas a few years ago, that former tOSU president Gee mentioned? More on the AAU issue later because it gets brought up often in realignment threads.

You are right the PAC covets the state of Texas. They want all those households for it's network. IMO, TTU to the PAC is almost certain to happen sometime in the future, with or without Texas, if the B12 dies. They have been smart to establish relationships with the CA academic heavyweights to help clear that academic hurdle when the time comes. They have previous conference relationships with the mountain schools in the PAC which helps as well. If the B12 doesn't die, then G5 TX schools like Houston, Rice, or SMU might benefit because the PAC wants into Texas badly.

On the AAU issue, nobody can count on AAU status. The AAU is an exclusive club. From the link, AAU membership is by invitation only, which requires an affirmative vote of three-fourths of current members. Invitations are considered periodically, based in part on an assessment of the breadth and quality of university programs of research and graduate education, as well as undergraduate education. The association ranks its members using four criteria: research spending, the percentage of faculty who are members of the National Academies, faculty awards, and citations. Two thirds of members can vote to revoke membership for poor rankings.

Since the AAU is a club, they never have to admit another school as long as they exist. If anything they have been trying to reduce membership or hold it steady lately. There are only four former members, but all have left or gotten booted since 1999. During that time they have added only four new members GT (2010), Boston U (2012), A&M (2001), and Stony Brook (2001). The AAU wants to be an exclusive club. To remain exclusive you have to keep membership levels low. Even if you meet all the vague standards for membership, 75% of the club has to like you enough to vote for you and be associated with your university. That is hard to do with founding members (1900) like Yale, Stanford, Harvard, Michigan, Cal, John Hopkins, etc. They are associating your university with theirs. If they think you will hurt them with that association you will not get their vote.

The University of Kansas is one of the oldest members of the AAU (1908) and we had worries about our research levels until a couple years ago, when we earned a National Cancer Institute (NCI) designation for our medical school in 2012. KU has continued working hard to bring in more research dollars as the AAU has let it be known to membership that they needed to continue to maintain high research levels to keep membership. In 2011, Syracuse (1966) left and Nebraska (1909) was booted for lack of qualifying research. This is good news in some ways for schools seeking AAU membership as it means old members who are not measuring up might be kicked out; however, it doesn't mean there will be many new slots (if any) and those that are available will be hotly contested.

TTU is at least a decade, probably several decades, from reaching the stage to even be considered for AAU membership. Many schools are working hard to try to reach the level to be considered for AAU membership, but most will never get invited. I know the State of Texas wants another public T1 university to join UT and A&M, so if they give the money then TTU will get there sooner or later, but it can be a long process, and even if they get T1 status, it is no guarantee they would get an AAU invite. GT just joined in 2010 and it is an academic powerhouse. That is how difficult it is to get an invite.
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2015 09:03 PM by jhawkmvp.)
01-23-2015 01:46 AM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(12-17-2014 12:18 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  
(12-16-2014 02:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Rumors of Expansion: The mere threat of expansion in the Big 12 with more G5 schools could be a trigger to other conferences, or networks to make concessions to the Big 12. They could want everyone's approval for holding a CCG with just 10 schools, or they could be pressuring for little brother invitations from other conferences in the event of movement, or they could be threatening network plans to get any or all of the above.

But What If They Issue an Actual Invitation: Here is where Big 12 math could become a bit tricky. In the Big 12 a membership vote requires the same 3/4's approval as dissolution does. Let's say Cincinnati is invited for membership and that everyone not named Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas vote for it. Cincinnati is in. But then a new GOR needs to be signed, especially with dissenting votes for additional membership. GOR's have to be unanimous to be effective. So Texas by permitting a vote on an invitation to a prospective member could allow the voting to go the way of the new candidate, and then having dissented on new membership refuse to sign a new GOR. Now a vote on dissolution is not needed to move, just two years notification to avoid exit fees. The same could be true for Oklahoma and Kansas. So if an invitation is forthcoming the aftermath could get quite interesting.

In that scenario, Cincy wouldn't get in - 3 votes against means only 70% for, not 3/4th of the vote. But the principle applies. If this is the way it works, that is fascinating.

Baylor would vote for expansion, I believe. Only Texas Tech and UT would be the no votes. 80% votes for expansion.
01-23-2015 03:51 AM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
Why would you need a "new" GOR? Wouldn't the existing contract be amended to include the new schools? With all the movement over the last few years, i find it hard to believe they left a giant loop hole like that.
01-26-2015 08:39 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
Texas isn't going anywhere. They make a ton of money ($40M) and HC Charlie Strong will bring the program back.

Once Texas starts winning the Big12 again (and it will be soon) they'll get into the CFP.
02-11-2015 03:53 PM
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RE: Could rumors of, or actual invitations to the Big 12 be a feint or a Trojan Horse?
(02-11-2015 03:53 PM)mac6115cd Wrote:  Texas isn't going anywhere. They make a ton of money ($40M) and HC Charlie Strong will bring the program back.

Once Texas starts winning the Big12 again (and it will be soon) they'll get into the CFP.

The tough thing about predicting what Texas might do is that they can do anything they wish. The only part that warrants speculation is what is best for Texas in the long run. That could be the PAC academically, the ACC for independence N.D. style, SEC for ease of travel, or it could be waiting in the Big 12 for other developments to happen. But what I truly believe is that 1 of those 4 things will be the eventual outcome. "Other developments" really only has one meaning, a further poaching of the ACC by either the Big 10, SEC, or both. Since it is highly improbable that the ESPN controlled SEC would be given permission to take ACC schools then it pretty much depends upon the Big 10 to get the ball rolling. Should that happen I would strongly suspect it would be in conjunction with a new Big 10 contract for T1 rights with ESPN. That would give the network the opportunity it needs to enhance the SECN with schools from North Carolina and Virginia and then give ESPN precisely the kinds of property they would need to convert the LHN into a network for Big 12 and ACC properties. This approach could work quite well if the resulting conferences moved to between 16 to 18 schools each. In such a move your Bearcats could easily be picked up along with UConn.
02-12-2015 08:56 PM
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