(12-16-2014 04:58 PM)WKUYG Wrote: Same person said Western wasn't a likely choice for CUSA because we didn't fit their "model" a few weeks before we became a member. Yet anyone with a connection to Western knew it was a done deal. Well unless someone stepped in and talked others into taking someone else. Western was 14 days with in moving with muts only to have FIU go to bat and point out FAU was the better choice.
This is clearly what is better for ODU and not a insider piece. If it was then the list would be 5 to 6 schools with UL-L and USA close to the top. I don't see any way the Western schools (including WKU, MUTS) vote for a eastern school especially one that adds nothing for basketball. The two schools that will benefit the most from a move to CUSA is UL-L and USA....
both have pretty good history in basketball and being in conference with more schools that actually care about the sport could be just the push they need to get back to being decent and having 3 year runs of good basketball. Respectable basketball. Both schools still have enough fans that care enough.
While we fans like to think we made a big difference in who joins and who doesn't....WE DON'T. So what Tech fans think or what S. Miss fans think...wont play a role in the added school.
Not everyone thought WKU was going to be on the outside looking in.
(03-26-2013 04:59 PM)arkstfan Wrote: If were a gambling man, I'd say WKU has the support of UAB, MTSU, ODU, Charlotte, and probably FIU and FAU. La.Tech maybe, USM maybe.
I think the fly in the ointment is how do you make the divisions work and how do you get past what is likely opposition from UNT, Rice, UTEP, and maybe UTSA who are all looking at the maps and saying this doesn't work for us.
(03-26-2013 06:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote: If it is a "market" discussion WKU and ASU have a beer and talk about when UL was a member. Lafayette is a larger TV market than Jonesboro and Bowling Green combined.
Facilities? Everyone is spending big and hustling.
There are some who think states are more important than TV market because of how Fox bills cable and satellite providers. If that is the case then it's bad news for the Cajuns since the state is already represented and it becomes a value judgment as to whether #3 in a larger population is better than #2 in a smaller population.
I still think the map matters and if the eastern schools are pushing WKU as I suspect then it becomes a matter of whether the western schools accept the idea of USM/UAB in the west (or in the alternatives WKU/MTSU in the west or WKU/USM in the west) or demand a regional choice. If they demand a regional choice is it take one and WKU is out of luck or do they go to 16?
I think this one is a little different.
CUSA should be in active negotiation. If there is less than $14 million on the table CUSA isn't doing anything. If Bankowsky can get the number to the $18 million or more range for 16, he will renew his push to go to 16 (which does not equal getting 16 approved).
I don't think it is a given that CUSA boots UAB. If the numbers work on the contract UAB paired with a football only like Army or UMass is plausible. If there were better hoops leagues options I wouldn't rule out a Sun Belt doing it. But the numbers have to work and I've got doubts about that.
I still believe in the power of the map. You want schools that plug into the map but aren't "TOO" close to anyone else (ie. competing too much for the same recruits and the same casual fans).
TXST and NMSU in my opinion fail the map test. ULM does as well.
Cajuns pass the map test in the arena of fan support, I'm not sure they pass it in recruiting but from studying rosters, I would argue USM has more to lose than La.Tech.
AState obviously passes the map test.
USA should pass the map test only USM recruits much against USA ditto Troy.
If you go any further east if you are going 14 you either have to split MTSU/WKU or send both west and ship USM to the east.
If you go down that path,
Georgia State and Georgia Southern pass the map test.
App I think passes as long as Charlotte agrees they pass.
ODU publicly has stated support for JMU so they apparently see them as close without being too close.
Ohio, and arguably Miami (OH) and Ball State would pass.
NIU doesn't and their remoteness would likely cause NIU to rebuff out of hand.
The big question on TV is what does Fox want? Well what they want is better content for FS1, FS2 and the regional FS to get their carriage fees closer to ESPN, but bidding on the Big 10 is the big play for that.
Fox has ample content in Texas but for the Houston metro. Fox blows in Arkansas because Fox SW feed on conventional cable doesn't get the viewer the Grizzlies in much of eastern Arkansas or the Thunder in much of Western Arkansas, the Stars and Mavericks content is basically worthless in Arkansas and while there is some Rangers interest, cable companies all over the state cut their own deals to get the Cardinals which would otherwise not be available, and Fox has lost their SEC content with the start of SEC Network. Fox is in good shape in Louisiana, terrible shape in Alabama (see loss of SEC). Fox is healthy in Georgia but lacks any compelling college content. North Carolina and Virginia, App and JMU don't change the equation a great deal.
How important is the Sinclair deal? From a Sinclair perspective only three schools help them at all, App, AState and USA and that's presuming the other two markets are like Little Rock where CUSA is currently on a subcarrier channel rather than the prime channel carried by satellite and cable and adding flips CUSA to the prime channel.
My guess is if there is $14-$17 million on the table CUSA takes one and the Cajuns are the leader with AState plan B if there is concern over adding another large public near Rice and concern from USM over recruiting that can't be overcome (and presidents rarely think deeply about recruiting) with USA not being plan B because a USM worried about the Cajuns is worried about USA.
If the TV money drops, then 13 it is.
If the money is bigger then everybody is happy and the expansion process becomes a debate of 1 vs 3.