Excerpt from ESPN the Mag (Ryan McGee)

"The tectonic plates have stilled since their upheaval in 2012, but many foresee one last massive shift (expanding the Power 5 to 16-team super-conferences) that will save some Group of 5 programs but set the rest adrift."

I am not going to debate the merits of his sources, but it is interesting that a senior writer has at least heard these rumors. Who is in and who would you leave out?

I don't buy it for a second. But just to play along, if the new model were 5 x 16 which would result in all of the new conference additions being current G5 schools, the Pac-12's options would be pretty limited unless it lowered its current academic standards. Right now all of the Pac-12 members are Carnegie Very High Research doctoral universities, and there are only three of those in the MWC: Colorado State, New Mexico and Hawaii. I could see those three being added along with UNLV. I'd expect Boise State and BYU to land in the Big 12 instead, which has already lowered its academic standards by adding TCU.

Meaning you would have to add 15 G5 teams. My list in specific order
1 BYU
2 Connecticut
3 Houston
4 UCF
5 South Florida
6 Memphis
7 East Carolina
8 Army
9 Navy
10 Air Force
11 Boise State
12 San Diego State
13 New Mexico
14 Colorado State
15 Fresno State

Next Teams
16 Louisiana
17 Wyoming
18 UTEP
19 Southern Miss
20 UNLV
21 Rice
22 Marshall
23 Tulsa
24 Tulane
25 Hawaii
26 Temple
27 Old Dominion
28 NIU
29 Ohio
30 North Texas
31 Georgia Southern
32 Florida Atlantic
33 Charlotte
34 UTSA
35 Arkansas State
36 Appalachian State
37 FIU
38 Western Michigan
39 South Alabama
40 Middle Tennessee

I don't find it interesting at all that a sports writers has heard rumors. Anybody with a computer or a smart phone would hear them.

I could come up with several scenarios for 4 conferences with 16 teams. But 5? That means 15 schools must be promoted to the P5, and that would be a stretch even if geography were not a factor. The only possible solutions would involve most conferences doing things they absolutely do not want to do.

For one thing, it would require that the Big 12 expand westward, when it clearly prefers a more eastern orientation. So, they have to compete with the PAC if they are both going to get to 16.

The PAC needs four adds. I would say Fresno, San Diego, Nevada and New Mexico, joining Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. Why? the PAC needs to pick as far west as possible if there is to be anything left for the Big 12.

To get the Big 12 to 16, they need six. My nominees are Boise, BYU, Air Force, Colorado State, Houston and Memphis. If they did this, they would also probably need to search for a new Commissioner as well. It would be a footrace to see if he could resign before they fired him.

I assume Notre Dame has to stay in the ACC, so they need one more - Cincinnati, I suppose.

There's nothing left to the west that the SEC would want (or in the east, either, but those are the only two options) so I gave them ECU and UCF.

That leaves the B1G. They could hold their nose and add UConn, but after that I really don't see anybody left on the board, leaving them 1 short of a quorum. What a spectacle it would be to see them fight with the ACC for the right to add Cincinnati instead of Temple.

If it's something like this or hell freezing over, put your money on hell.

However that list does not mean what schools fit conferences depending geography, culture, academics, etc.
If no P5 conference could take another P5 school from another P5 conference. This is who they would take:
ACC
+Notre Dame
+Cincinnati

B1G
+Connecticut
+Buffalo

Big 12
+Memphis
+Tulane OR Louisiana
+Colorado State
+Houston
+UCF
+South Florida

SEC
+East Carolina
+SMU

PAC-12
+BYU
+New Mexico
+Boise State
+San Diego State

(12-15-2014 02:47 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Meaning you would have to add 15 G5 teams. My list in specific order
1 BYU
2 Connecticut
3 Houston
4 UCF
5 South Florida
6 Memphis
7 East Carolina
8 Army
9 Navy
10 Air Force
11 Boise State
12 San Diego State
13 New Mexico
14 Colorado State
15 Fresno State

Next Teams
16 Louisiana
17 Wyoming
18 UTEP
19 Southern Miss
20 UNLV
21 Rice
22 Marshall
23 Tulsa
24 Tulane
25 Hawaii
26 Temple
27 Old Dominion
28 NIU
29 Ohio
30 North Texas
31 Georgia Southern
32 Florida Atlantic
33 Charlotte
34 UTSA
35 Arkansas State
36 Appalachian State
37 FIU
38 Western Michigan
39 South Alabama
40 Middle Tennessee

This will be about tv sets and recruiting. Leaving Fresno State/SDSU out of the top 10 shows you don't really get it and are a pretty much an AAC homer (and yes I acknowledge that I am a MWC/Fresno State homer).

Expansion choices don't happen in a vacuum, and not all conferences have an equal ability to pick the ones they want. Basically, my initial approach was trying to find a way to make it work, causing me to start on the West coast and work my way east. I was also assuming that there would be no moves between P5 conferences as part of this. I don't believe that would happen.

IMO, if it were clear that the Big 12 were going to somehow be forced to add as many as six schools, I suspect that the B1G would first poach Texas and Kansas as a better option than UConn and anybody else. That puts a lot more dominoes in play, including Oklahoma, OK State, West Virginia and Kansas State as options for the SEC, which would take any two of those before they would add a G5.

In that scenario, the Big 12 would need to add 10 new members (if the PAC doesn't pick the rest of their carcass). There is no way they do that and remain P5. They just become that "best of the rest" league people have talked about.

There is just no way the P5 is going to allow a 25% dilution of its current power. No matter what rumors an ESPN writer is hearing.

I can't see this one happening. I think the BigXII imploding is far more likely, honestly...

While I think four four conferences with 18-20 makes more since, it would take an agreement some how merging the B12/ACC and send the others to different conferences. So if it was 80, here are the teams I would think would get it. I think majority of the 15 teams would be from the AAC/MWC but bones will be thrown to MAC, CUSA and Army and BYU. In addition, I don't think ND is willing to give up it's independent status.

These are the 15 I think would get picked, not saying most deserving. Teams based on politics and geography.
Starting with Academies, independents and smaller conferences
Army, Navy, Air Force, BYU, Marshall, NIU taking 6 spots.
AAC (5 teams)
UCONN, UCF, CINCI, MEMPHIS & Houston
MWC (Four teams)
Boise, Colorado St, Fresno St and San Diego St.

If 81st team is needed I see the following teams vying for it USF, SMU, ECU, Utah St, Nevada, Rice, Tulane & La Tech My pick would be ECU but I could see Nevada or Utah St picked because of the number of AAC teams that may already be selected.

I don't think the service academies will want anything to do with a 5x16 power conference model. They won't be able to compete and they know it. They do make sense from a TV standpoint.

I guess it is getting to be that time of year again.

I hope to God this never happens. A 5x16 system virtually locks everything in place and sets the ladder on fire.

If this ever happens, I'd think there would be lawsuits coming from just about every program that is left out.

A lot would have to do the university's aim/planning for expansion + market.

- BYU may be stubborn and want to go their own way -- they have loyal Mormon followers + are very picky for Sunday games in Any sport. Fine for a G5 basketball conference - not so much for a G5 football conference, and Definitely not so much for a P5 football conference.

- NIU is probably a better market than people outside the MAC realize. They're aiming/setting to expand ambitiously + they have a Chicago market which is worth something and makes up for a lot of other things

- What's up with the high need for New Mexico?

- I wouldn't see Hawaii way up there though due to costs of flights, etc. I think they'd need to be a Power G5 for many years to become attractive due to that

- I see Cinci & Memphis being the top two ticket items. Not so much Boise State as we've seen due to the low market, but if 15 G5s need to be picked up, obviously Boise will be.

(12-15-2014 03:06 PM)buffdog Wrote:  

(12-15-2014 02:47 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Meaning you would have to add 15 G5 teams. My list in specific order
1 BYU
2 Connecticut
3 Houston
4 UCF
5 South Florida
6 Memphis
7 East Carolina
8 Army
9 Navy
10 Air Force
11 Boise State
12 San Diego State
13 New Mexico
14 Colorado State
15 Fresno State

Next Teams
16 Louisiana
17 Wyoming
18 UTEP
19 Southern Miss
20 UNLV
21 Rice
22 Marshall
23 Tulsa
24 Tulane
25 Hawaii
26 Temple
27 Old Dominion
28 NIU
29 Ohio
30 North Texas
31 Georgia Southern
32 Florida Atlantic
33 Charlotte
34 UTSA
35 Arkansas State
36 Appalachian State
37 FIU
38 Western Michigan
39 South Alabama
40 Middle Tennessee

This will be about tv sets and recruiting. Leaving Fresno State/SDSU out of the top 10 shows you don't really get it and are a pretty much an AAC homer (and yes I acknowledge that I am a MWC/Fresno State homer).

Cincinnati didn't make the top 40, ouch.

No, I ever see there being a 5 x 16. If so, then why destroy the Big East. They want less mouths to feed, not more.

I found it interesting (5x16) because I would imagine being a CFB sportswriter for ESPN( he is not talking to the dude, tux yoda etc, he is talking to AD's, coaches and people who have some pull and see where things could potentially be headed.

I don't see the B12 being allowed to have less teams than the others if it stays at four for the championship. The excitement and buzz generated is

(12-15-2014 02:12 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  Excerpt from ESPN the Mag (Ryan McGee)

"The tectonic plates have stilled since their upheaval in 2012, but many foresee one last massive shift (expanding the Power 5 to 16-team super-conferences) that will save some Group of 5 programs but set the rest adrift."

I am not going to debate the merits of his sources, but it is interesting that a senior writer has at least heard these rumors. Who is in and who would you leave out?

I would include UCF

(12-15-2014 04:42 PM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(12-15-2014 03:06 PM)buffdog Wrote:  

(12-15-2014 02:47 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Meaning you would have to add 15 G5 teams. My list in specific order
1 BYU
2 Connecticut
3 Houston
4 UCF
5 South Florida
6 Memphis
7 East Carolina
8 Army
9 Navy
10 Air Force
11 Boise State
12 San Diego State
13 New Mexico
14 Colorado State
15 Fresno State

Next Teams
16 Louisiana
17 Wyoming
18 UTEP
19 Southern Miss
20 UNLV
21 Rice
22 Marshall
23 Tulsa
24 Tulane
25 Hawaii
26 Temple
27 Old Dominion
28 NIU
29 Ohio
30 North Texas
31 Georgia Southern
32 Florida Atlantic
33 Charlotte
34 UTSA
35 Arkansas State
36 Appalachian State
37 FIU
38 Western Michigan
39 South Alabama
40 Middle Tennessee

This will be about tv sets and recruiting. Leaving Fresno State/SDSU out of the top 10 shows you don't really get it and are a pretty much an AAC homer (and yes I acknowledge that I am a MWC/Fresno State homer).

Cincinnati didn't make the top 40, ouch.

No, I ever see there being a 5 x 16. If so, then why destroy the Big East. They want less mouths to feed, not more.

I found it interesting (5x16) because I would imagine being a CFB sportswriter for ESPN( he is not talking to the dude, tux yoda etc, he is talking to AD's, coaches and people who have some pull and see where things could potentially be headed.

I don't see the B12 being allowed to have less teams than the others if it stays at four for the championship. The excitement and buzz generated is

I'm an idiot they would be in the Top 5. I guess I was already thinking they were in the Big XII.

(12-15-2014 03:03 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  However that list does not mean what schools fit conferences depending geography, culture, academics, etc.
If no P5 conference could take another P5 school from another P5 conference. This is who they would take:
ACC
+Notre Dame
+Cincinnati

B1G
+Connecticut
+Buffalo

Big 12
+Memphis
+Tulane OR Louisiana
+Colorado State
+Houston
+UCF
+South Florida

SEC
+East Carolina
+SMU

PAC-12
+BYU
+New Mexico
+Boise State
+San Diego State

ECU to the SEC?? That's not just a dream, its a fantasy...

While none of this will ever happen, threads like this do serve a useful purpose. They keep reminding us that market forces have left us with a grouping of schools and conferences that aren't very easy to improve upon. For those who still don't have a chair, it's discomforting to believe that the music isn't going to start again. But it probably isn't.

Without searching past threads to give a definitive answer to this, my sense is that very few of these threads are started by fans of schools now in the P5, and very few are started by fans of G5 schools that are rarely, if ever, mentioned as candidates for promotion. They tend to be started by fans of schools who haven't yet given up hope.

At the risk of being dismissed as an arm chair psychologist, I can't help but suspect that those schools and their fans are less concerned that others won't perceive them as being on the same level as the Alabamas and Ohio States of the college football world, and more concerned that the Georgia States and Arkansas States will be perceived as being on the same level as them. Deep down, they would rather people look at them as the shortest giants than the tallest midgets.

I saw that same attitude many times in the corporate world over the years, and only rarely did I see it turn out well for the mid-cap companies who risked everything to join the large caps. It only happens when the little guy is able to completely change the paradigm. I don't see any G5 that has that. You can say that you are more like the P5 than the other G5's, or even than some P5's. But that's not a game changer. You have to hope that somebody else changes the game for you. Good luck with that.

Big 12
BYU, SDSU, Boise St, UCF, USF, Memphis

PAC
Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado St

SEC
ODU, ECU

ACC
ND, Cincy

BigTen
NIU, uconn

While we're dreaming, and clearly we are in a world where ECU and ODU end up in the SEC, I'd like a pony...with rockets...made of gold. SOLID GOLD ROCKET PONY!!