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Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
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VegasHuskie Offline
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Post: #1
Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
So lets assume NIU actually received and accepted the Big 12 invite.

A second assumption that I feel is fair to draw would be the Huskies would have a few lean years upon entrance. The current Huskies would be better then say, Iowa State, but could they compete with Baylor and TCU? Probably not. Middle of the pack would likely be the ceiling for the 2014 Huskies in the Big 12.

The national exposure of the power five conference would open up recruiting channels that would not exist otherwise - so there is no reason to believe that NIU could not become a perennial contender, especially considering the geographical region of the school is very fertile and there for the taking.

TCU and Utah (for the most part) would be good examples of mid-major powers that jumped to major conferences with successful results.

However lofty expectations don't always produce success stories. Take UMass - they were a strong subdivision program that has been a colossal failure since they made the attempt to boost their profile in the major leagues.

So back to the question that titles the thread: does everyone throw their fan and/or alumni support behind joining the Big 12 even if it means that there is a very real possibility the school may become a perennial bottom feeder in a power five conference?

Every conference has their Indiana, Vanderbilt, or Purdue. I would like to think that NIU would not turn into the conference laughingstock, but you never know.

Although I would be in the roll the dice and take your shot camp, I also can see how some may argue it's better to be a big fish in a small pond.
12-14-2014 03:39 PM
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huskiebob Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
That's a no-brainer to me.

If we were ever invited (big IF), you take it and do everything you can to become a top program in the B12.
12-14-2014 03:49 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
Once hell freezes over, pigs take to the air, and NIU gets a Big 12 bid, I guess you have to take it. We'd fit better in an intermediate-level league but the chance would be too good to pass up.
12-14-2014 04:07 PM
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VegasHuskie Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
(12-14-2014 03:49 PM)huskiebob Wrote:  That's a no-brainer to me.

If we were ever invited (big IF), you take it and do everything you can to become a top program in the B12.

Is it a no brainer? Status quo for the Huskies means a bowl game every season and three consecutive seasons in the hunt for a major BCS/access bowl. Status quo meant a Heisman finalist which only occurred because Lynch was putting up video game numbers against inferior MAC defenses. Status quo means we get to watch the Huskies two or three times a year on national TV as a featured midweek game on ESPN or ESPN2. Status quo means every season we get to brag about the Huskies dominance and carry the chip on our shoulder about how the power Five machine oppresses the mid-major.

If the Huskies moved to the big 12 and became just a run of the pack team, all the above mentioned stuff goes away.

Yeah, I know the pipe dream of joining a power five is enticing as can be, but there may be a bit of "careful what you wish for" buried beneath the surface.
12-14-2014 04:15 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
I would miss the limited cost that we have now, to see games. I also wonder how many games I'd actually be able to see on TV, without buying a more expensive cable package PLUS whatever network the Big 12 might require by then.

Ideally, the MAC would get somewhat better, and we could stay in the MAC and be competitive with the better P5 teams based on past success and ability to recruit. We'd get slaughtered in the other sports unless that changed dramatically. But I don't really follow those sports.
12-14-2014 04:31 PM
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The Frisky Biscuit Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
I'll always take the chance to compete against the best. Even if I end up with a titanically sore ass.

From the school's perspective, it would be a no brainer. An elite sports program draws students and donors (MONEY).
12-14-2014 04:39 PM
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Enaiu Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
I sacrifice all of that, Vegas. There's no gaurentee that you continue success, but you at least give yourself the opportunity to succeed later. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.
12-14-2014 04:50 PM
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huskiebob Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
(12-14-2014 04:31 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would miss the limited cost that we have now, to see games. I also wonder how many games I'd actually be able to see on TV, without buying a more expensive cable package PLUS whatever network the Big 12 might require by then.

Ideally, the MAC would get somewhat better, and we could stay in the MAC and be competitive with the better P5 teams based on past success and ability to recruit. We'd get slaughtered in the other sports unless that changed dramatically. But I don't really follow those sports.

Seriously? You're worried about that if (again, big IF) we have a chance to be in a conference with Texas, Oklahoma, OK-State, TCU, Baylor, K-State and the rest?
12-14-2014 04:56 PM
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The Frisky Biscuit Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
(12-14-2014 04:31 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would miss the limited cost that we have now, to see games. I also wonder how many games I'd actually be able to see on TV, without buying a more expensive cable package PLUS whatever network the Big 12 might require by then.

Ideally, the MAC would get somewhat better, and we could stay in the MAC and be competitive with the better P5 teams based on past success and ability to recruit. We'd get slaughtered in the other sports unless that changed dramatically. But I don't really follow those sports.

Nobody does. That's why it's "okay" if NIU sucks at them.
12-14-2014 05:00 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
You take the invite to the B12. Yes, you risk the change to backfire a bit -- but it's a BCS/P5 conference -- not a "better G5 at the time" that helped hurt Marshall. Yes, NIU could end up slipping into battling Iowa State for 3rd worst, and have 1 or 2 years every decade where they're above .500. Highly likely they'd be better than 95% of mid-majors pretty much every year, but less likely they'd be the typical NIU over the past 5 years situated in there -- even though that IS still likely to some degree, although probably resulting in being 8-4 usually.

I guess the question would be: Would you rather see NIU going to the MACC game 4 out of 5 years, winning it 3 out of 5 years, averaging, say, 11 wins a Full season and being a Power G5 in the MAC -- or being the current "Fighting Illini" of the B12, where being 6-6 is great news?

From a fan perspective, I would want the 11-wins-a-year, going to a BCS Bowl once every 5-7 years as a MAC power school -- and being a power G5, rather than battling for .500 in the B12 every year with a Rare 8-4 being the "WOW" year. From a University Admin perspective, I'd rather have the B12 invite battling for 5-7/6-6 every year.

A more Realistic Possibility to Consider:

Would you rather have NIU be 11.x wins a full season, winning the MAC 4 out of 5 years, and going to a BCS Bowl once every 5 years -- OR join the American Athletic Conference and for whatever reason, ending up having 8.x wins a year, being a respectable AAC team, but never seeing a BCS bowl or more than 10 votes to be ranked on a good year?
(This post was last modified: 12-14-2014 05:10 PM by toddjnsn.)
12-14-2014 05:06 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
(12-14-2014 04:56 PM)huskiebob Wrote:  
(12-14-2014 04:31 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  I would miss the limited cost that we have now, to see games. I also wonder how many games I'd actually be able to see on TV, without buying a more expensive cable package PLUS whatever network the Big 12 might require by then.

Ideally, the MAC would get somewhat better, and we could stay in the MAC and be competitive with the better P5 teams based on past success and ability to recruit. We'd get slaughtered in the other sports unless that changed dramatically. But I don't really follow those sports.

Seriously? You're worried about that if (again, big IF) we have a chance to be in a conference with Texas, Oklahoma, OK-State, TCU, Baylor, K-State and the rest?

I'm not made of money. I can park for free and pay $25 for a ticket. In the Big 12 everything would cost a lot more. I did say we should still do it. In any case, this is a pipe dream. Like figuring out what you would do with the money if you won the lottery.
12-14-2014 05:07 PM
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huskiealum03 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
Its a no brainer to jump to big 12 IF the opportunity came. I think you would have more varied opinions if you replaced big 12 with AAC
12-14-2014 07:09 PM
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BarsemaBone2 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
You take the Big 12 invite. No questions asked.
12-14-2014 07:30 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
Quote:You take the Big 12 invite. No questions asked.

I agree. More money. It's not like jumping from FCS->FBS, in a G5 conference. You have more scholarships to dole out, more $$ to invest in things, etc -- which for many places costs more than the money they get back from higher return $.

For a G5 to join a P5 conference, it's a LOT more $$, but expanding their facilities before to be considered ($ spent on a gamble in a sense), and a bit during & after as part of a promise to the conference ($ still spending but gamble paying off). Even if the shift leads to the team being 3rd worst in the conference -- the increased $$ over time would make up for the expansion $$. Some G5s wouldn't have to expand much at all -- some a lot.

The only real RISK would be: Joining the P5 conference having to spend a lot to be considered then getting in, then not having enough fans and being "Temple'd out" (Big East kicks Temple out; brings back after going G5). That shouldn't be a real concern for many teams; I couldn't see Boise getting kicked out -- they bring a lot of fans consistently (but not enough TV viewers from Idaho to be wanted so much).

So if NIU had pretty much Zero risk of being "Temple'd Out" -- I would say of course. And, the B12 wouldn't ask unless it was a virtual Zero risk of being "Temple'd out" anyway.
12-15-2014 12:40 AM
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badmoonrising13 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
Whether it's Big 12 or a merger of the best schools of the Group of 5, change is coming. I like the idea of the super conferences so we could fit in as many deserving non-power conference schools as possible. If we had and 8-team playoffs we would have the champions of the six power conferences and two at-large bids. The 8-team playoffs will probably coming sooner than later due to the complaining of the schools who were first two out. I like that Frazier and our administration are so far out in front of this and have put NIU in solid footing for the upcoming upheaval.
12-15-2014 08:16 AM
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Huskie_Jon Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
When the Huskies rejoined the MAC in '97, they were worse than a mediocre MAC team. They got better.

They could get better in the Big 12, if it ever happens.
12-15-2014 10:06 AM
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badmoonrising13 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
(12-15-2014 10:06 AM)Huskie_Jon Wrote:  When the Huskies rejoined the MAC in '97, they were worse than a mediocre MAC team. They got better.

They could get better in the Big 12, if it ever happens.

It'd be nice if we could have our own Gary Patterson. TCU has been extremely lucky to have kept him around this long. I couldn't believe Texas didn't go after him. Dude is definitely one of the best coaches in the country. Maybe Carey will turn out to be our Gary Patterson (even though I've criticized some of his in-game decisions, you can't argue with his results), but I don't think he'll be around after another solid season -- maybe even after the Boca bowl. If and when Carey leaves I'm confident Frazier will hit a home run with the person he decides to hire.
12-15-2014 10:52 AM
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DogPoundNorth Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
I believe that Carey staying or leaving will be a huge tell on the internal discussions about moving conferences. Carey's name hasn't even come up for any job opening which says to me he isn't actively looking. It's pretty clear there are a lot of changes that will be taking place at NIU in the coming years and it's possible Frazier and Carey have some agreement or understanding on what needs to happen.
12-15-2014 10:56 AM
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bikechuck Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
(12-15-2014 10:56 AM)DogPoundNorth Wrote:  I believe that Carey staying or leaving will be a huge tell on the internal discussions about moving conferences. Carey's name hasn't even come up for any job opening which says to me he isn't actively looking. It's pretty clear there are a lot of changes that will be taking place at NIU in the coming years and it's possible Frazier and Carey have some agreement or understanding on what needs to happen.

Carey's name could be coming up for job openings in a quite behind the scenes manner that we know nothing about. The guy is a highly successful coach and we are fortunate to have him at NIU. I hope that he and his family like DeKalb and decide to stay for a while and only move on for a perfect fit.

You can live pretty well on $500K per year and save for a solid future.
12-17-2014 09:43 PM
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Skinut Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Probable MAC dominance vs. possible Big 12 mediocrity
Take the invite. Even if relegated to middle of the pack (or Big 12) for a few years, that means bowl bids and a lot more $$$$$ and exposure than we have today. No brainer.
12-17-2014 09:58 PM
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