Lines will be moving in the next few weeks but as of now.

Toledo -3
WKU -2.5
WMU -1
USA -2.5
Marshall -10

I will gladly take the 10 points. We have a great shot at winning straight up.

Wow. Marshall @ 10?

I would take NIU with 10 points any day against Marshall.
By far, NIU is going to be Marshall's toughest game and I do not see the Herd getting a win, never the less winning by more than 10 points!

Not sure why they have us a 10. We are trending down while NIU is trending up. Gonna be a tough game for us.

And I'm a bit surprised we're favored (albeit by a point) against a 9-win MWC team who beat Boise State by 2 TDs.

Agree. People love Western. They have two good wins vs CMU and BG but lost to the rest of their stiff competition. They were very competitive and are not shabby, but AF isnt either. Will be a dandy of a match up.

(12-12-2014 08:23 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  People love Western. They have two good wins vs CMU and BG but lost to the rest of their stiff competition. They were very competitive and are not shabby, but AF isnt either. Will be a dandy of a match up.

Vegas, in particular - probably because WMU was 10-2 against the spread this season. That said, I'm also surprised we're favored.

(12-12-2014 08:23 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  Agree. People love Western. They have two good wins vs CMU and BG but lost to the rest of their stiff competition. They were very competitive and are not shabby, but AF isnt either. Will be a dandy of a match up.

Agree. WMU 'over achieved' all year and is perceived as a team which will only continue to improve.

WMU is seen as a team with a good upside who will likely take the bowl game very seriously.

The half-baked intuitive idea: another of the many reasons Vegas loves football bettors.

(12-13-2014 06:41 AM)axeme Wrote:  The half-baked intuitive idea: another of the many reasons Vegas loves football bettors.

I'm riding the hot horse - WMU.

Actually, Vegas is a lot like stock markets. They make the market but don't play the market. They are really conduits for bettors.

One person will bet WMU. Another might take AFA. The casino takes from the loser and pays the winner and usually collects about 5% for their 'troubles.'

Bets are typically 11:10. One bets 11 to win 10 + their 11 bet = total 21.

So if one bets 11 on WMU and another bets 11 on AFA the casino takes in 22 but pays out 21 and keeps the other 1 (5% as operating profit).

Casinos are happiest when half the money comes in on one team and half on the other.

If more money comes in on one side, the casino adjusts the odds to make the play on the other side more attractive. E.g., the odds on EMU/Dayton started near Dayton - 11 or 12 points and fell to Dayton -9.5 as apparently the 'late' money came in on EMU. Anyone who bet EMU with points won that bet... :)

You have given the technical explanation what Vegas does. What that doesn't say is that the great majority of bettors can't pick even 50% vs the spread let alone cover the vig to break even.

You bet sports for any length of time, you lose. You might make money one week, one month, maybe even one season, but long haul, you give it all back plus a lot more.

Casinos are happiest when a lot of people bet. The lines are the tease. They know people will bet stupidly. Just bet, is all they ask.

(12-13-2014 08:51 AM)axeme Wrote:  You have given the technical explanation what Vegas does. What that doesn't say is that the great majority of bettors can't pick even 50% vs the spread let alone cover the vig to break even.

You bet sports for any length of time, you lose. You might make money one week, one month, maybe even one season, but long haul, you give it all back plus a lot more.

What you say is true, but the house vig is only 5%.

Which means that 'on average' a person betting $1,000 say during a drunken weekend of betting on MAC football in Vegas would expect to lose $50. Losing $50 on that much wagering isn't much.

Now horse racing where the track only returns 5 of 6 dollars bet. Bet $1,000 and on average expect to lose say $150 - 165.

Same for lotteries. Where for every buck bet the state keeps an even greater share.

Lotto and horse racing are different matters because the pool of wagers is split among the winners minus the house take.

With your hypothetical MAC bettor, what you say would be true if he bet randomly on each game, or flipped a coin. But typically, he uses emotion, prejudices, "intuition" "hunches" (i.e. magical thinking) and other ways to pick games. That's why bettors don't even pick 50%. Vegas has a lot more than the vig on their side, they have human weakness and ignorance to also help fatten the coffers.

(12-13-2014 09:14 AM)axeme Wrote:  Lotto and horse racing are different matters because the pool of wagers is split among the winners minus the house take.

With your hypothetical MAC bettor, what you say would be true if he bet randomly on each game, or flipped a coin. But typically, he uses emotion, prejudices, "intuition" "hunches" (i.e. magical thinking) and other ways to pick games. That's why bettors don't even pick 50%. Vegas has a lot more than the vig on their side, they have human weakness and ignorance to also help fatten the coffers.

I disagree.

Because of odds (points), a person could take every MAC team and, on average, expect to win ALMOST 1/2 of his bets.

Picking every MAC team should produce the same results over many, many trials as taking the odd (or even) number team on the bet slip.

To the best of my knowledge, there is no systematic bias, e.g., home teams, big conferences, favorites, underdogs, etc.

Each game is designed to be a 50-50 proposition.

If you bet before the line moves and know a sport well you can be better than 50% for a life time. There are experts for a reason. Lots of guys are between 60-75% correct. Its betting the line late where it is basically a coin flip.

(12-13-2014 09:31 AM)emu steve Wrote:  

(12-13-2014 09:14 AM)axeme Wrote:  Lotto and horse racing are different matters because the pool of wagers is split among the winners minus the house take.

With your hypothetical MAC bettor, what you say would be true if he bet randomly on each game, or flipped a coin. But typically, he uses emotion, prejudices, "intuition" "hunches" (i.e. magical thinking) and other ways to pick games. That's why bettors don't even pick 50%. Vegas has a lot more than the vig on their side, they have human weakness and ignorance to also help fatten the coffers.

I disagree.

Because of odds (points), a person could take every MAC team and, on average, expect to win ALMOST 1/2 of his bets.

Picking every MAC team should produce the same results over many, many trials as taking the odd (or even) number team on the bet slip.

To the best of my knowledge, there is no systematic bias, e.g., home teams, big conferences, favorites, underdogs, etc.

Each game is designed to be a 50-50 proposition.

Actually, you are not disagreeing. Sure, if you had the discipline to bet the MAC team in every non-conference matchup with no exceptions for intuition, biases etc., you'd expect to average 50% over a long term. But that is not how people bet. Factor out the human element in your wagering and you can consistently lose that 5%. Factor it in and you lose more.

(12-13-2014 09:37 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  If you bet before the line moves and know a sport well you can be better than 50% for a life time. There are experts for a reason. Lots of guys are between 60-75% correct. Its betting the line late where it is basically a coin flip.

Lots of guys compared to those who don't? I don't think so. It is a very, very SMALL percentage who win over time. And a very large percentage who lose consistently.

(12-13-2014 09:53 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(12-13-2014 09:37 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  If you bet before the line moves and know a sport well you can be better than 50% for a life time. There are experts for a reason. Lots of guys are between 60-75% correct. Its betting the line late where it is basically a coin flip.

Lots of guys compared to those who don't? I don't think so. It is a very, very SMALL percentage who win over time. And a very large percentage who lose consistently.

You can have lots of people while still being in the minority. A lot of people =/= majority.

(12-13-2014 10:59 AM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  

(12-13-2014 09:53 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(12-13-2014 09:37 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  If you bet before the line moves and know a sport well you can be better than 50% for a life time. There are experts for a reason. Lots of guys are between 60-75% correct. Its betting the line late where it is basically a coin flip.

Lots of guys compared to those who don't? I don't think so. It is a very, very SMALL percentage who win over time. And a very large percentage who lose consistently.

You can have lots of people while still being in the minority. A lot of people =/= majority.

Right. Im just saying that not every one is a lock on 50%. You can be intelligent and make a living off it. Vegas wouldnt exist if EVERYONE broke even. Winners and losers... The good ones make a lock pick once a week for a year. 52 weeks where they win between 55 and 75% of the weeks. End the year up a couple hundred. Easy in theory. If you do a lot of research before the line moves youc can set yourself up with a teased speead already.