Didn't want to get this bogged down inside the other expansion thread.

But I was wondering what y'all think about this.

SEC Network = approximately $1.40/per TV subscriber household per State with an SEC member.

Big Ten = approximately $1.18 per TV subscriber/ household per State with an SEC member.

ACC network coming.... $ not yet determined.

PAC 12? Not sure.

Big 12? Not sure/ but I think the the Long Horn network actually works against them in all this. I can see them going to 12 if legislation within the NCAA doesn't change to allow a CCG with less than 12.

The P5 don't have to worry about splitting 12 million.
Adding a new state for both the SEC/Big10 and soon the ACC will add $$MILLIONS$$$/per month!

I can see the SEC adding 2 teams and I see the end game as 16 members. My best guess is NC State and VT. I believe state population? # of subscribing households will weigh heavy on all of these conference's decisions. Maybe even more so than "market" for advertisers.

The ACC now has 15 (including ND... Who has to come in as a full time member I believe now). IF they lose two to the SEC, Who do they add?
They would need to add at least 1 to get back to 12 (with ND) and 3 to get to 14. Could add as many as 5 to reach 16! If the $ makes sense and the ACC network is 65% as successful as the SEC - They might look the other way somewhat on Academics of an institution. Who makes sense?

What's left for them (The ACC) to choose from if the Big 10 adds two from the AAC ranks and if the Big12 exapands as well?

If the Big 12 takes only 2 teams to get a CCG, do they both come from the AAC?

In the end, should all three of the Big10/SEC/ACC go to 16..... who does that leave regionally in the G5?

Can you see (once the AAC reloads) two skeleton conferences left between the Sun Belt and CUSA that make sense to merge into one?

What does that conference look like and what is it called?

The Big Mess

If C-USA and Sun Belt are left with a handful of teams each I hope they do merge. The alternative of one raiding the other and the "loser" of the raid calling up more FCS teams doesn't do anyone any favors.

That being said, I don't think it comes to that (at least not anytime soon). I don't think the big boys want to go to 16 yet because they would just have to split their pie more ways. If the Big XII starts another round of realignment, I don't see more that 1-2 programs from each conference moving. Hell, if C-USA only loses one they might stay at 12 and that would be that.

(12-11-2014 01:53 PM)freshtop Wrote:  If C-USA and Sun Belt are left with a handful of teams each I hope they do merge. The alternative of one raiding the other and the "loser" of the raid calling up more FCS teams doesn't do anyone any favors.

That being said, I don't think it comes to that (at least not anytime soon). I don't think the big boys want to go to 16 yet because they would just have to split their pie more ways. If the Big XII starts another round of realignment, I don't see more that 1-2 programs from each conference moving. Hell, if C-USA only loses one they might stay at 12 and that would be that.

Yea, I think this expansion of FBS isn't helping the existing teams. But its not like the Belt is the one creating the situation.

(12-11-2014 01:36 PM)The4thOption Wrote:  The ACC now has 15 (including ND... Who has to come in as a full time member I believe now). IF they lose two to the SEC, Who do they add?
They would need to add at least 1 to get back to 12 (with ND) and 3 to get to 14. Could add as many as 5 to reach 16! If the $ makes sense and the ACC network is 65% as successful as the SEC - They might look the other way somewhat on Academics of an institution. Who makes sense?

If ND decides they need to get in the ACC full-time (they do if they ever want a shot at a NC), then the ACC will add Cincy. They already vetted them when they added Louisville. UConn might think they have a chance because of basketball, but they don't. Them boys in North Carolina know how to hold a grudge.

(12-11-2014 01:41 PM)CatMom Wrote:  The Big Mess

+ a bunch

Doing the math.

B12 takes two from CUSA. Leaving CUSA with 11 after losing UAB and adding Charlotte.

CUSA takes one from the Sun Belt. Leaving the Sun Belt with 10 football members.

Sun Belt will need two to get to 12. Will need three if Idaho is booted.

1. Missouri State
2. UTA Football
3. ???????

(12-11-2014 04:57 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Doing the math.

B12 takes two from CUSA. Leaving CUSA with 11 after losing UAB and adding Charlotte.

CUSA takes one from the Sun Belt. Leaving the Sun Belt with 10 football members.

Sun Belt will need two to get to 12. Will need three if Idaho is booted.

1. Missouri State
2. UTA Football
3. ???????

Wossamotta U. They have history

(12-11-2014 05:52 PM)CatMom Wrote:  

(12-11-2014 04:57 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Doing the math.

B12 takes two from CUSA. Leaving CUSA with 11 after losing UAB and adding Charlotte.

CUSA takes one from the Sun Belt. Leaving the Sun Belt with 10 football members.

Sun Belt will need two to get to 12. Will need three if Idaho is booted.

1. Missouri State
2. UTA Football
3. ???????

Wossamotta U. They have history

They get my vote, solid coaching, great fan base/attendance, excellent recruiting, and their mascot is awesome . . . . .

(12-11-2014 04:57 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Doing the math.

B12 takes two from CUSA. Leaving CUSA with 11 after losing UAB and adding Charlotte.

CUSA takes one from the Sun Belt. Leaving the Sun Belt with 10 football members.

Sun Belt will need two to get to 12. Will need three if Idaho is booted.

1. Missouri State
2. UTA Football
3. ???????

You think the Big XII will take teams from CUSA over teams from the AAC & BYU?



More likely the Big XII takes Cinn & BYU and AAC takes 1 from CUSA leaving 12 in CUSA & the Sun Belt.

(12-11-2014 01:53 PM)freshtop Wrote:  If C-USA and Sun Belt are left with a handful of teams each I hope they do merge. The alternative of one raiding the other and the "loser" of the raid calling up more FCS teams doesn't do anyone any favors.

That being said, I don't think it comes to that (at least not anytime soon). I don't think the big boys want to go to 16 yet because they would just have to split their pie more ways. If the Big XII starts another round of realignment, I don't see more that 1-2 programs from each conference moving. Hell, if C-USA only loses one they might stay at 12 and that would be that.

The question is, How much bigger does a conference's pie get with the addition of a new state. These conference specific networks are being mandated to BASIC subscriptions in every household with a TV subscription (Cable/Dish/D-TV). These sports networks are driving cord cutting.

It is pretty huge pie expansion to add two new highly populated states (SEC: Virginia & N.C.) I'm not sure how the math works out exaclty, but we are talking a combined population of roughly 19 Million people. Glancing over statistics (if I remember correctly) I estimating about 3 people per household. But let's call it 4 to figure the low end of the estimation. 19/4 = 4.75 Million housholds. What is the TV subscription penetration? 90%? 80%? I don't know, but in this day and age, I going to guess about 80%. Wholesale SEC rate is about $1.40/household. That becomes ($1.40 X 4.75Mil. about $5.32 Million/PER MONTH! 12 Months a year! Nearly 64 Million Dollars a year bump in revenue flow for ESPN and the SEC for them to add two states like that.

This will play out similarly for nearly every P5 conference. There are some lower populated states out west, so the $ aren't the same there and the Longhorn network seems to be in the way of a bigger Big12 Network.

But here in the East.... Populations are high and the Big10/SEC networks are crazy profitable. The ACC Network coming to a TV Provider near you soon.

Expansion is $imply Going to continue due to this. I could be wrong.

I am very surprised that Jacksonville hasn't gone to full scholarship and upgraded to the Sun Belt by now. They could use the Gator Bowl as there home field.

(12-11-2014 04:57 PM)FloridaJag Wrote:  Doing the math.

B12 takes two from CUSA. Leaving CUSA with 11 after losing UAB and adding Charlotte.

CUSA takes one from the Sun Belt. Leaving the Sun Belt with 10 football members.

Sun Belt will need two to get to 12. Will need three if Idaho is booted.

1. Missouri State
2. UTA Football
3. ???????

there are no teams in c-usa that the b12 would want. mostate is an add I would like to see. I would like uta to restart football. not holding my breath on the latter.

(12-12-2014 03:54 AM)David Krysakowski Wrote:  I am very surprised that Jacksonville hasn't gone to full scholarship and upgraded to the Sun Belt by now. They could use the Gator Bowl as there home field.

they have not been invited to the sun belt..not up to them..not a very attractive add

Both C-USA and the Sun Belt ought to merge..
Then divide into 2 regional conferences..
It would make for 2 great regional conferences, both being very good..

Maybe even having a championship game between each other..

I would be ok with this! (numbers next to teams are the average attendance this year)

C-USA West
UL 25775
Ark StAte 24861
NMSU 12269
Texas State 20598
LaTech 20054
Rice 18562
UTEP 28377
UTSA 27576
Southern Miss 22739
North Texas 19271

C-USA East
Georgia Southern 21102
App State 23166
ULM 18108
Troy 16767
USA 17445
Georgia State 15006
Marshall 27461
MTSU 17408
WKU 16306
ODU 20118
FAU 14122
FIU 11966

If you want both leagues to be at 12, South Alabama could move west as well as adding Missouri St. to the west and James Madison could move to the east...
Two, Twelve team leagues, both are regional and both have good Football and Basketball and Baseball...

(12-12-2014 11:02 AM)BankerCajun Wrote:  Both C-USA and the Sun Belt ought to merge..
Then divide into 2 regional conferences..
It would make for 2 great regional conferences, both being very good..

Maybe even having a championship game between each other..

I would be ok with this! (numbers next to teams are the average attendance this year)

C-USA West
UL 25775
Ark StAte 24861
NMSU 12269
Texas State 20598
LaTech 20054
Rice 18562
UTEP 28377
UTSA 27576
Southern Miss 22739
North Texas 19271

C-USA East
Georgia Southern 21102
App State 23166
ULM 18108
Troy 16767
USA 17445
Georgia State 15006
Marshall 27461
MTSU 17408
WKU 16306
ODU 20118
FAU 14122
FIU 11966

If you want both leagues to be at 12, South Alabama could move west as well as adding Missouri St. to the west and James Madison could move to the east...
Two, Twelve team leagues, both are regional and both have good Football and Basketball and Baseball...

This idea makes too much sense, so it will never happen. The only tweak I'd make is instead of moving USA west to even things out, I'd move ULM.

(12-12-2014 11:16 AM)GSUhooligan Wrote:  

(12-12-2014 11:02 AM)BankerCajun Wrote:  Both C-USA and the Sun Belt ought to merge..
Then divide into 2 regional conferences..
It would make for 2 great regional conferences, both being very good..

Maybe even having a championship game between each other..

I would be ok with this! (numbers next to teams are the average attendance this year)

C-USA West
UL 25775
Ark StAte 24861
NMSU 12269
Texas State 20598
LaTech 20054
Rice 18562
UTEP 28377
UTSA 27576
Southern Miss 22739
North Texas 19271

C-USA East
Georgia Southern 21102
App State 23166
ULM 18108
Troy 16767
USA 17445
Georgia State 15006
Marshall 27461
MTSU 17408
WKU 16306
ODU 20118
FAU 14122
FIU 11966

If you want both leagues to be at 12, South Alabama could move west as well as adding Missouri St. to the west and James Madison could move to the east...
Two, Twelve team leagues, both are regional and both have good Football and Basketball and Baseball...

This idea makes too much sense, so it will never happen. The only tweak I'd make is instead of moving USA west to even things out, I'd move ULM.

Unfortunately, Tech would not want to be in the same league with ULM..

(12-12-2014 11:16 AM)GSUhooligan Wrote:  

(12-12-2014 11:02 AM)BankerCajun Wrote:  Both C-USA and the Sun Belt ought to merge..
Then divide into 2 regional conferences..
It would make for 2 great regional conferences, both being very good..

Maybe even having a championship game between each other..

I would be ok with this! (numbers next to teams are the average attendance this year)

C-USA West
UL 25775
Ark StAte 24861
NMSU 12269
Texas State 20598
LaTech 20054
Rice 18562
UTEP 28377
UTSA 27576
Southern Miss 22739
North Texas 19271

C-USA East
Georgia Southern 21102
App State 23166
ULM 18108
Troy 16767
USA 17445
Georgia State 15006
Marshall 27461
MTSU 17408
WKU 16306
ODU 20118
FAU 14122
FIU 11966

If you want both leagues to be at 12, South Alabama could move west as well as adding Missouri St. to the west and James Madison could move to the east...
Two, Twelve team leagues, both are regional and both have good Football and Basketball and Baseball...

This idea makes too much sense, so it will never happen. The only tweak I'd make is instead of moving USA west to even things out, I'd move ULM.

Too bad both conferences are too money hungry to see that this is the best way to survive being a non-P5 conference.

(12-12-2014 11:52 AM)BankerCajun Wrote:  

(12-12-2014 11:16 AM)GSUhooligan Wrote:  

(12-12-2014 11:02 AM)BankerCajun Wrote:  Both C-USA and the Sun Belt ought to merge..
Then divide into 2 regional conferences..
It would make for 2 great regional conferences, both being very good..

Maybe even having a championship game between each other..

I would be ok with this! (numbers next to teams are the average attendance this year)

C-USA West
UL 25775
Ark StAte 24861
NMSU 12269
Texas State 20598
LaTech 20054
Rice 18562
UTEP 28377
UTSA 27576
Southern Miss 22739
North Texas 19271

C-USA East
Georgia Southern 21102
App State 23166
ULM 18108
Troy 16767
USA 17445
Georgia State 15006
Marshall 27461
MTSU 17408
WKU 16306
ODU 20118
FAU 14122
FIU 11966

If you want both leagues to be at 12, South Alabama could move west as well as adding Missouri St. to the west and James Madison could move to the east...
Two, Twelve team leagues, both are regional and both have good Football and Basketball and Baseball...

This idea makes too much sense, so it will never happen. The only tweak I'd make is instead of moving USA west to even things out, I'd move ULM.

Unfortunately, Tech would not want to be in the same league with ULM..

In my hypothetical, Tech doesn't get a say.

I once made the comment that the best way for our level of the G5 to compete was for the top of MAC, CUSA, and SBC to get together and form their own league to compete with the AAC and MWC directly for the G5 access slot.

But alas, we're all too interested in playing musical deck chairs on the Titanic.