Just when the dust had settled with FB realignment, U-AB drops football and conference membership "what if scenarios" starts again. If the Big 12 adds 2, that will cause a trickle down all the way to FCS teams seeking FBS membership.

B12 - who goes?
AAC or BYU or others - who leaves, who joins?
C-USA - who leaves, who joins?
SBC - who leaves, who joins?

It's all fodder. What does your crystal ball say?

(12-11-2014 11:38 AM)Newetimes Wrote:  Just when the dust had settled with FB realignment, U-AB drops football and conference membership "what if scenarios" starts again. If the Big 12 adds 2, that will cause a trickle down all the way to FCS teams seeking FBS membership.

B12 - CINCINNATI & MEMPHIS
AAC - ODU & UTSA
C-USA - LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE
SBC - MISSOURI ST. & LIBERY

It's all fodder. What does your crystal ball say?

I think the Big 12 doesn't add anyone for a couple of years or so. I think it would be entirely too rash to add schools just because they were shunned by the playoff committee. At least one P5 conference will be shunned every year in a 4 team playoff. The Big Ten and ACC would be in these same conversations if Ohio State and Florida State were left out.

If I was the Big 12, I'd wait for two schools to turn into strong programs in the G5 and separate from the pack. I'd root for UCF because they are in Florida. Even though the state is crowded already, UCF is one of the largest undergrad programs in the nation if I'm not mistaken. The Big 12 needs to expand their demographic outside of the state of Texas and UCF would greatly help that. Tulane adds a great academic school in a nearby state who, if they could develop a program, has potential to be strong. Other options would have to include Cincinnati, UConn, and Memphis. Going east coast has to be a priority, along with aggressively fighting back the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten who have entered or are up against your geography.

As for CUSA and their potential hole without UAB: If the Big 12 does not add anyone by the end of the year, then I think CUSA goes back up to 14. I think they want to go to 12 and don't want to kick anyone out but they can't stay at 13. So to get back up they take a Sun Belt school, probably one of ULL, South Alabama, Arkansas State, or Georgia State in the order I think their preference would be. They probably don't want another Texas school, and ULL may be blocked by Louisiana Tech, and Georgia State would be in the crowded eastern division. It's tough to predict because there is no perfect fit.

If the Sun Belt gets raided then we may get our shot at FBS. According to their fans, we aren't getting an invitation unless they are desperate and on life support. I think it would help our cause if one of their western schools left for CUSA. They may not want JMU anymore but they may go back to Missouri State who I think would accept an invite this year as opposed to last year when they were less ready to move up. Eastern Kentucky may get in our way as well but I hope they aren't ready. I don't know what else we can do to make ourselves more attractive before there is no more space for us to go to FBS aside from wining every game of football and men's basketball (Stop laughing. Our school is already a miracle!).

So in summary:
I think - B12: No one; CUSA: ULL; Sun Belt: Missouri State, Eastern Kentucky
I hope - Big Ten: Liberty (Better academic peers, more national alumni, and great strategic geography which includes DC, NYC, Chicago, and many other of the largest cities in America) but I'd settle for the SEC.

(12-12-2014 08:38 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  I think the Big 12 doesn't add anyone for a couple of years or so. I think it would be entirely too rash to add schools just because they were shunned by the playoff committee. At least one P5 conference will be shunned every year in a 4 team playoff. The Big Ten and ACC would be in these same conversations if Ohio State and Florida State were left out.

If I was the Big 12, I'd wait for two schools to turn into strong programs in the G5 and separate from the pack. I'd root for UCF because they are in Florida. Even though the state is crowded already, UCF is one of the largest undergrad programs in the nation if I'm not mistaken. The Big 12 needs to expand their demographic outside of the state of Texas and UCF would greatly help that. Tulane adds a great academic school in a nearby state who, if they could develop a program, has potential to be strong. Other options would have to include Cincinnati, UConn, and Memphis. Going east coast has to be a priority, along with aggressively fighting back the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten who have entered or are up against your geography.

As for CUSA and their potential hole without UAB: If the Big 12 does not add anyone by the end of the year, then I think CUSA goes back up to 14. I think they want to go to 12 and don't want to kick anyone out but they can't stay at 13. So to get back up they take a Sun Belt school, probably one of ULL, South Alabama, Arkansas State, or Georgia State in the order I think their preference would be. They probably don't want another Texas school, and ULL may be blocked by Louisiana Tech, and Georgia State would be in the crowded eastern division. It's tough to predict because there is no perfect fit.

If the Sun Belt gets raided then we may get our shot at FBS. According to their fans, we aren't getting an invitation unless they are desperate and on life support. I think it would help our cause if one of their western schools left for CUSA. They may not want JMU anymore but they may go back to Missouri State who I think would accept an invite this year as opposed to last year when they were less ready to move up. Eastern Kentucky may get in our way as well but I hope they aren't ready. I don't know what else we can do to make ourselves more attractive before there is no more space for us to go to FBS aside from wining every game of football and men's basketball (Stop laughing. Our school is already a miracle!).

So in summary:
I think - B12: No one; CUSA: ULL; Sun Belt: Missouri State, Eastern Kentucky
I hope - Big Ten: Liberty (Better academic peers, more national alumni, and great strategic geography which includes DC, NYC, Chicago, and many other of the largest cities in America) but I'd settle for the SEC.

Well thought out comments and tongue-in-cheek aside.

I just find it paramount that Liberty moves up ASAP. There are only so many slots left to move up, much less in a Power 5 conference. If Liberty's goal is to one day be in the SEC or whoever is the best conference, then you have to look at how much further will that conference expand. Liberty is lucky that they are in a great location. The SEC and Big Ten would love to be in Virginia. Liberty's proximity to Washington DC is helpful too. And Liberty would provide a bridge to West Virginia for the Big 12. Or Liberty could back fill the ACC if Virginia and/or Virginia Tech were poached. But these conferences wouldn't invite FCS Liberty. They are going to invite a successful FBS (probably AAC) version of Liberty. We really need to get ahead of the game right now and it sucks that we need an invitation to move up.

Patience is the virtue we need now. We're closer to that reality with LU's recent success and the inevitable realignment coming. It will be easier to upgrade conferences once we're FBS. Let's take the first invite and prove we belong and excel.

Yes we are close to FBS and we just need to get into the Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA, or wherever first, then worry about the P5 conferences. I don't think independence is a good option, at least not at first. If the college football playoff doesn't reward independent schools then I can't see us going that direction, and I have no idea what conference would let us park our other sports there. The Big South probably would be fine with it but I would hope we can do better than that.