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(12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
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back2vinyl Offline
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Post: #21
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 06:23 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Just like everyone else Frank knows little to nothing and has his opinions, that are no more or less valuable than anyone else.

The B12 is very unlikely to expand in the near future. Non of those schools is going to take a pay cut.

The current conference members won't necessarily have to take a pay cut because any of the current candidates will gladly accept a smaller share of the television revenue. In fact, a pay cut would be a deal-killer. I still think the Florida schools are in contention, largely because of their market size, although penetration may be a problem. Markets matter way more than on-the-field performance. I think the factors in order of importance are roughly:

(1) Size of the potential new market.
(2) Facilities, commitment, and ability to spend what it takes to compete.
(3) Brand image (kind of the equivalent of the "eye test" we keep hearing about with regard to the playoffs).
(4) Academics, endowment, and other stuff college presidents care about.
(5) On-the-field performance.
12-09-2014 06:46 PM
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Post: #22
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
Everyone makes a fuss about the B12 "snub." Florida State and/or Ohio State could easily have been left out. Would everyone be ranting about how the ACC/B1G needs to expand?
12-09-2014 06:47 PM
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Post: #23
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 04:40 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I looked it up. Using the BCS standings (and Massey's BCS simulation), for the last 4 years (when the Big 12 didn't have a title game), 8 of the 16 top 4 teams didn't play in a CCG. Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, STanford, and a bunch of SEC division runner-ups.

Ummm...source please. 05-stirthepot
12-09-2014 07:00 PM
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Post: #24
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 07:00 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 04:40 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I looked it up. Using the BCS standings (and Massey's BCS simulation), for the last 4 years (when the Big 12 didn't have a title game), 8 of the 16 top 4 teams didn't play in a CCG. Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, STanford, and a bunch of SEC division runner-ups.

Ummm...source please. 05-stirthepot

Sigh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html
12-09-2014 07:07 PM
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Post: #25
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 06:46 PM)back2vinyl Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 06:23 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Just like everyone else Frank knows little to nothing and has his opinions, that are no more or less valuable than anyone else.

The B12 is very unlikely to expand in the near future. Non of those schools is going to take a pay cut.

The current conference members won't necessarily have to take a pay cut because any of the current candidates will gladly accept a smaller share of the television revenue. In fact, a pay cut would be a deal-killer. I still think the Florida schools are in contention, largely because of their market size, although penetration may be a problem. Markets matter way more than on-the-field performance. I think the factors in order of importance are roughly:

(1) Size of the potential new market.
(2) Facilities, commitment, and ability to spend what it takes to compete.
(3) Brand image (kind of the equivalent of the "eye test" we keep hearing about with regard to the playoffs).
(4) Academics, endowment, and other stuff college presidents care about.
(5) On-the-field performance.

Actually, number #3 crushes #1 and #2. That's the whole ballgame.
12-09-2014 07:21 PM
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RobUCF Offline
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RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 07:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 07:00 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 04:40 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I looked it up. Using the BCS standings (and Massey's BCS simulation), for the last 4 years (when the Big 12 didn't have a title game), 8 of the 16 top 4 teams didn't play in a CCG. Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, STanford, and a bunch of SEC division runner-ups.

Ummm...source please. 05-stirthepot

Sigh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html

Sorry, sarcasm can sometimes be difficult on the internet, that's my bad. I wasn't at all surprised by that, however, given that a number of these game had just started during that time frame, and the changes to the system I'm not so sure how relevant that stat is.
12-09-2014 07:41 PM
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Post: #27
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 07:41 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 07:07 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 07:00 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 04:40 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I looked it up. Using the BCS standings (and Massey's BCS simulation), for the last 4 years (when the Big 12 didn't have a title game), 8 of the 16 top 4 teams didn't play in a CCG. Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, STanford, and a bunch of SEC division runner-ups.

Ummm...source please. 05-stirthepot

Sigh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NCAA_D..._Standings
http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html

Sorry, sarcasm can sometimes be difficult on the internet, that's my bad. I wasn't at all surprised by that, however, given that a number of these game had just started during that time frame, and the changes to the system I'm not so sure how relevant that stat is.

I think it's a relevant time frame--the SEC, PAC, ACC and Big Ten had title games, the Big 12 did not. That's the current situation. Yes the Big Ten and PAC title games were new, but CCG's as a whole were not a new thing.

The bigger changes, of course, are the committee rankings replacing the BCS rankings and the switch from 2 to 4 teams. Maybe voters would have voted differently if #4 meant "playoffs", or maybe not. And who knows what the committee will do next year--they didn't seem to have a consistent approach week to week.

But if you look at the options for what the Big 12 could do about the no-CCG issue:
1. Expand--try to find a way to make adding Memphis/Cincinnati/UCF/etc level programs worth $40M.
2. Get the NCAA rule on conference championships changed to allow a 10-team league to have a CCG
3. Convince the other power conferences to clip the committee's wings and go back to the BCS rankings.

3 seems by far the easiest change to make. Of course I left out option 4: "Do nothing and see what happens next year", which is the most likely option.
12-09-2014 08:07 PM
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Post: #28
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 07:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 06:46 PM)back2vinyl Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 06:23 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Just like everyone else Frank knows little to nothing and has his opinions, that are no more or less valuable than anyone else.

The B12 is very unlikely to expand in the near future. Non of those schools is going to take a pay cut.

The current conference members won't necessarily have to take a pay cut because any of the current candidates will gladly accept a smaller share of the television revenue. In fact, a pay cut would be a deal-killer. I still think the Florida schools are in contention, largely because of their market size, although penetration may be a problem. Markets matter way more than on-the-field performance. I think the factors in order of importance are roughly:

(1) Size of the potential new market.
(2) Facilities, commitment, and ability to spend what it takes to compete.
(3) Brand image (kind of the equivalent of the "eye test" we keep hearing about with regard to the playoffs).
(4) Academics, endowment, and other stuff college presidents care about.
(5) On-the-field performance.

Actually, number #3 crushes #1 and #2. That's the whole ballgame.

You may be right. Perception is reality.
12-09-2014 08:14 PM
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Post: #29
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 06:23 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Just like everyone else Frank knows little to nothing and has his opinions, that are no more or less valuable than anyone else.

The B12 is very unlikely to expand in the near future. Non of those schools is going to take a pay cut.

No, I'd say Frank's opinions deserve greater weight than most simply because he actually has some research to back up his opinions.

Me personally, I don't see Memphis / Cincinnati making enough dollars to cause Big XII to expand UNLESS Big XII is going to go into the branded network business. Hoops is more valuable to a branded network because it is so much of your content and leveraging their hoops would make sense because they will be playing games that matter enough for cable/satellite out of market to pay some small amount to have those games and coupled with hoops can command full price in much of their state.

Edit to add:
A Big XII branded network could soothe some feathers around the league especially if some LHN in-conference content were simulcast.
(This post was last modified: 12-09-2014 08:39 PM by arkstfan.)
12-09-2014 08:36 PM
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Post: #30
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 08:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 06:23 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Just like everyone else Frank knows little to nothing and has his opinions, that are no more or less valuable than anyone else.

The B12 is very unlikely to expand in the near future. Non of those schools is going to take a pay cut.

No, I'd say Frank's opinions deserve greater weight than most simply because he actually has some research to back up his opinions.

Me personally, I don't see Memphis / Cincinnati making enough dollars to cause Big XII to expand UNLESS Big XII is going to go into the branded network business. Hoops is more valuable to a branded network because it is so much of your content and leveraging their hoops would make sense because they will be playing games that matter enough for cable/satellite out of market to pay some small amount to have those games and coupled with hoops can command full price in much of their state.

Edit to add:
A Big XII branded network could soothe some feathers around the league especially if some LHN in-conference content were simulcast.

Research? Oh does he? Remember his "Big Ten expands to 20" scenario? Yeah he did his research on that one for sure....right here.

This little article of his had zero substance and was just an obvious, yet smart attempt at hits during all the Playoff craze going on at the time about The Big 12.

What research are you talking about though? I saw nothing there that I hadn't already saw here.
12-09-2014 10:18 PM
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RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
Frank has reasonable opinions, but that is all they are. If the B12 decides to grow, it is unlikely to happen for another couple of years. Ride the $$ for now.
If they expand they most likely add only 2. The only way 4 makes sense is if they get a B12 network together, then they need inventory. They can make expansion to 12 work $$$ wise until next tv deal if they went in that direction. New schools would need to make in the $10 mil range until next deal, That would be a huge raise for those schools. If they could get over 20 mil plus for champ game they already break even, or make $$$. Immediate image, long term upside, and Market size are huge.

Travel while important, is less important. Once you are on a plane, you are on a plane. ease of flying in may be small part of the equation.
(This post was last modified: 12-10-2014 08:49 AM by goodknightfl.)
12-10-2014 08:47 AM
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Post: #32
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-10-2014 08:47 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Frank has reasonable opinions, but that is all they are. If the B12 decides to grow, it is unlikely to happen for another couple of years. Ride the $$ for now.
If they expand they most likely add only 2. The only way 4 makes sense is if they get a B12 network together, then they need inventory. They can make expansion to 12 work $$$ wise until next tv deal if they went in that direction. New schools would need to make in the $10 mil range until next deal, That would be a huge raise for those schools. If they could get over 20 mil plus for champ game they already break even, or make $$$. Immediate image, long term upside, and Market size are huge.

Travel while important, is less important. Once you are on a plane, you are on a plane. ease of flying in may be small part of the equation.

It's not about how long it takes to fly.

Look at some of these West Coast games how late they are happening.

So lets say your team plays in an 8 pm start time game. You play till 10 pm. You don't get on a plane till 11 pm. You fly for two hours and land at 1 am. Oh wait...you flew two time zones east to get home. You don't get home till 3 am.

The time zones can really mess you up.
12-10-2014 08:51 AM
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Post: #33
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-10-2014 08:51 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-10-2014 08:47 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Frank has reasonable opinions, but that is all they are. If the B12 decides to grow, it is unlikely to happen for another couple of years. Ride the $$ for now.
If they expand they most likely add only 2. The only way 4 makes sense is if they get a B12 network together, then they need inventory. They can make expansion to 12 work $$$ wise until next tv deal if they went in that direction. New schools would need to make in the $10 mil range until next deal, That would be a huge raise for those schools. If they could get over 20 mil plus for champ game they already break even, or make $$$. Immediate image, long term upside, and Market size are huge.

Travel while important, is less important. Once you are on a plane, you are on a plane. ease of flying in may be small part of the equation.

It's not about how long it takes to fly.

Look at some of these West Coast games how late they are happening.

So lets say your team plays in an 8 pm start time game. You play till 10 pm. You don't get on a plane till 11 pm. You fly for two hours and land at 1 am. Oh wait...you flew two time zones east to get home. You don't get home till 3 am.

The time zones can really mess you up.

3:00 AM is no exaggeration and actually under-estimates. You aren't getting a team on an airplane one hour after the final horn. AState is an hour from Memphis International when we were in the Big West for football 6:00 am arrivals at the football complex weren't unheard of for games kicking at 6pm Pacific.

I don't know what the current agreement is but the last time Idaho was in the Sun Belt, they had a 2:05 PM Pacific time curfew. They could not kickoff a conference game later than that.

The other item overlooked is you need helmets, pads, shoes, and jerseys. Not many schools can afford to fly that gear as cargo. They take it by tractor-trailer.

Remember the gross pic that went around a few years ago of the Boise State equipment truck? They hit a cow enroute to Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Boise is among the strong G5 financially and they trucked their gear.

Let's take an easy trip. Austin to the Rose Bowl Stadium to play UCLA. We will assume it is the 3:30 Eastern ABC game. We will assume Texas does the Friday night walk-through without gear. Equipment truck needs to be at the Rose Bowl Stadium at least five hours before kick to allow for any minor problems. That's 7:30 AM game site time. The equipment truck would have to roll out of Austin at 1:30 PM Friday assuming no stops longer than diesel, bathroom and meal and no cushion if there is any significant problem.

Now assume Texas is playing at Oregon. Equipment truck has to leave at 1:30 AM on Friday to get the same arrival time and you are assuming you don't get bogged in traffic in Phoenix, LA or Sacramento doing that. You can route up via Salt Lake but then you are running your truck over higher mountain passes and running a slightly higher chance you get a weather problem crossing the mountains further north at higher elevations.

The idea that you just hop on a plane and poof you step off a plane in a few hours ignores the real logistics involved in moving a team from point A to point B.
12-10-2014 10:15 AM
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AntiG Offline
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Post: #34
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
From practicality standpoint and like minded schools, Texas is a perfect fit for the B1G. SEC is the next best fit due to geography and focus on football.
12-10-2014 10:43 AM
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RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-08-2014 07:00 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(12-08-2014 06:51 PM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I have always liked Frank the Tank and respect a lot of his post on the matter of college sports. I disagree on his Big 12 expansion view point. I believe the Big 12 should look to add Colorado state and New Mexico to get back to 12 and a championship game first.

And I believe the Big 12 should stand pat. The playoffs will expand to 8 teams sooner than later. No need to add schools that will not increase the current monetary payout Big 12 programs are receiving.

The key word is "current". If all you care about is stadium attendance, then you're right; however, if there's a Big12 network on the horizon, then you need to look at TV markets. Then expanding makes sense.
12-10-2014 11:31 AM
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Post: #36
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 05:19 PM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 12:45 AM)USFRamenu Wrote:  
(12-09-2014 12:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Texas to the PAC. Not happening. Logistics seem lost on some folks. Teams do not travel via teleportation.

Read what I wrote again. I said it was a dream that the Pac will eventually wake up from. Just as the B1G woke up from their ND dream. 07-coffee3

The PAC isn't asleep dreaming of Texas. The PAC is wide awake and realize the only legitimate option is Texas.

Good luck with that dream.

I once dreamt of winning the lottery. I did.

Now I dream of winning the Lottery Jackpot. See how that works. 07-coffee3
12-10-2014 04:15 PM
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RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
Same guy that did not believe Nebraska would be a consideration for the Big Ten. Nothing to see here.
12-10-2014 04:56 PM
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RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-10-2014 10:15 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(12-10-2014 08:51 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(12-10-2014 08:47 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Frank has reasonable opinions, but that is all they are. If the B12 decides to grow, it is unlikely to happen for another couple of years. Ride the $$ for now.
If they expand they most likely add only 2. The only way 4 makes sense is if they get a B12 network together, then they need inventory. They can make expansion to 12 work $$$ wise until next tv deal if they went in that direction. New schools would need to make in the $10 mil range until next deal, That would be a huge raise for those schools. If they could get over 20 mil plus for champ game they already break even, or make $$$. Immediate image, long term upside, and Market size are huge.

Travel while important, is less important. Once you are on a plane, you are on a plane. ease of flying in may be small part of the equation.

It's not about how long it takes to fly.

Look at some of these West Coast games how late they are happening.

So lets say your team plays in an 8 pm start time game. You play till 10 pm. You don't get on a plane till 11 pm. You fly for two hours and land at 1 am. Oh wait...you flew two time zones east to get home. You don't get home till 3 am.

The time zones can really mess you up.

3:00 AM is no exaggeration and actually under-estimates. You aren't getting a team on an airplane one hour after the final horn. AState is an hour from Memphis International when we were in the Big West for football 6:00 am arrivals at the football complex weren't unheard of for games kicking at 6pm Pacific.

I don't know what the current agreement is but the last time Idaho was in the Sun Belt, they had a 2:05 PM Pacific time curfew. They could not kickoff a conference game later than that.

The other item overlooked is you need helmets, pads, shoes, and jerseys. Not many schools can afford to fly that gear as cargo. They take it by tractor-trailer.

Remember the gross pic that went around a few years ago of the Boise State equipment truck? They hit a cow enroute to Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Boise is among the strong G5 financially and they trucked their gear.

Let's take an easy trip. Austin to the Rose Bowl Stadium to play UCLA. We will assume it is the 3:30 Eastern ABC game. We will assume Texas does the Friday night walk-through without gear. Equipment truck needs to be at the Rose Bowl Stadium at least five hours before kick to allow for any minor problems. That's 7:30 AM game site time. The equipment truck would have to roll out of Austin at 1:30 PM Friday assuming no stops longer than diesel, bathroom and meal and no cushion if there is any significant problem.

Now assume Texas is playing at Oregon. Equipment truck has to leave at 1:30 AM on Friday to get the same arrival time and you are assuming you don't get bogged in traffic in Phoenix, LA or Sacramento doing that. You can route up via Salt Lake but then you are running your truck over higher mountain passes and running a slightly higher chance you get a weather problem crossing the mountains further north at higher elevations.

The idea that you just hop on a plane and poof you step off a plane in a few hours ignores the real logistics involved in moving a team from point A to point B.

Thank you for the follow up. I was trying to keep it as simple as possible for the folks that normally just gloss over such realities. It was nice to see someone follow up my post with the more detailed description of just how real of a problem it is to fight those time zones.
12-10-2014 08:30 PM
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Post: #39
RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-09-2014 04:40 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  I looked it up. Using the BCS standings (and Massey's BCS simulation), for the last 4 years (when the Big 12 didn't have a title game), 8 of the 16 top 4 teams didn't play in a CCG. Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, STanford, and a bunch of SEC division runner-ups.


You must realize, in the AP and coach's polls, team are often unduly punished for losing the CCG, which has a big impact on those final BCS standings in that regard. If you want to use those numbers, it should at least include the CCG loser's rank prior to the CCG itself.

(12-09-2014 06:47 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  Everyone makes a fuss about the B12 "snub." Florida State and/or Ohio State could easily have been left out. Would everyone be ranting about how the ACC/B1G needs to expand?

Well the difference here is, Ohio St and Florida State were given a chance to play themselves in. TCU and Baylor had to sit around and wait for someone to lose, or look poor while winning. That is the difference.
12-11-2014 11:41 AM
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RE: (12/8) Frank the Tank Big 12 expansion article
(12-10-2014 04:56 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Same guy that did not believe Nebraska would be a consideration for the Big Ten. Nothing to see here.

I've tried to stay out of this thread since I don't like commenting about myself, but this is utter crap.

April 19, 2010 - Most valuable expansion candidates for the Big Ten Network besides Texas: Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland

http://frankthetank.me/2010/04/19/the-va...n-network/

Yes, I've thrown out a lot of different hypothetical expansion scenarios, but from spring 2010 forward, I consistently stated that there was no Big Ten expansion scenario that wouldn't include Nebraska, even when people like Chip Brown were reporting otherwise and stating that Nebraska's market was too small.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2014 01:11 PM by Frank the Tank.)
12-11-2014 01:09 PM
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