(12-08-2014 10:25 AM)UConn-SMU Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:04 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  Why would ESPN go out of their way to lobby for the Boise, Idaho TV market?

You're losing sight of what matters.

1. TV market
2. TV market
3. TV marekt
4. TV market

In that case, UConn has its own top 25 market with Hartford/Springfield/New Haven. Plus the added bonus of NYC (tied there with Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State, and ND).

P5 is gonna want TV market AND a good FB program.

(12-08-2014 10:23 AM)Chappy Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:14 AM)Wooglin157 Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:01 AM)Chappy Wrote:  If the B12 expands because of this, they are over-reacting.

A championship game is a double-edged sword. Some years it helps you, other years it could hurt you. If Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon or Florida State had been upset in their title games, those conferences would have been out of the postseason. But there were no upsets, so the B12 is on the outside looking in.

But this is basically another way of saying the Big XII as it stands now will need help to get in pretty much by default. Scoreboard watching essentially instead of putting their playoff fate in their own hands.

Only in years where a team not named Oklahoma or Texas wins the title.

Let's not forget, one reason the Big 12 didn't want a title game in the first place is because it cost them a shot at the National Championship multiple times (#10 Texas A&M beat #2 Kansas State in 1998, #9 Colorado beat #3 Texas in 2001, #15 Kansas State beat #1 Oklahoma in 2003, #9 Oklahoma beat #1 Mizzou in 2007). The Championship game was not kind to the Big 12 in the past, and they were glad to have it gone. Now after 1 year of the playoff they want it back? I think it's an over-reaction.

True but ultimately they had their fate in their hands and failed to ultimately prove they were one of the two best. I think the dynamic has changed since the BCS era. The committee has stated multiple times the importance of that 13th game.

Taking away my personal bias which are a) preference for traditional conferences and against CCGs and b) Cincinnati being a secondary team of mine, I see things like this:

1. The Big 12 has to be careful not to over-react. The CCGs can help and hurt. If Alabama lost Saturday they went from in to the SEC having no one. The Big 12 could have had two in the right circumstances.

2. That said, whether it's better to have a CCG or not in this era is debatable. They are the only ones who don't which makes it different than the BCS era. Also losses count less to the committee and wins more.

3. If a CCG does happen, it's better if it's with 10 schools than with expansion.

4. If expansion does happen, 12 is the number.

5. If expansion happens BYU is probably #1. The question after that is do you take another western school or go east. Or do you ignore your #1 to get a solid eastern block with West Virgina?

(12-08-2014 09:42 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I have no idea who would or would not be picked. I don't see Boise as one picked, TV would be the driving force and Boise has no market size.

Byu without stipulation would be a home run, but they will always have stipulations.

Cincy has real advantages, and disadvantages, but would have to be near the top of the list.

UCONN is out of the way, but has tons of positives in its favor, Same for UCF or USF.

The same things that made ECU down the list on BE still apply.
Memphis has a lot of positives.

Without BYU I really can't see B12 going west, so I guess some combo of Cincy, UCF, Memphis, and USF would be most likely, but who knows what matrix they will use.

I agree with your entire post, with one exception. ECU's role in any Big XII expansion is more of a factor than it was in the Big East. It is a fact that WVU was a proponent of adding ECU to the Big East. The Big East had issues that the Big XII does not, stability. Instability and the basketball schools are what killed ECU's chances. That does not exist with the Big XII. The Big XII has an issue the Big East did not...a school on an island. I am not sure adding just Cincy would enough for WVU...or any other school in their situation. You need regional rivalries to maintain interest. Does that mean I think ECU is a shoe-in? Far from it.

If there is any expansion (which I don't think happens) and it is only two teams...ECU is not one of them. Neither are either of the Florida schools. The Big XII would want name schools. Cincy and Memphis are the only two in the AAC. Sorry, can't include UCONN as I don't think the Big XII would ever look there. UCF/USF aren't name schools and choosing just one presents problems. They don't need to recreate WVU all over again and they would never take UCF/USF as the only two choices IMO.

If it gets up to 4 teams, I see WVU getting two regional rivals, both of which have their positives. Cincy and ECU. ECU actually has good TV presence and would open up NC in at least the Raleigh, Norfolk and Richmond markets. Most likely Charlotte, Greensboro and Winston-Salem. It doesn't just need to be interest in ECU to open those markets. There are plenty of Big XII fans there. Put the two together and the Big XII can easily break into the market. ECU has good history with WVU and Cincy as well as two of the next three I'm about to mention. I also see UCF and either USF/Memphis. The island argument (my own argument, in fact) leans one towards USF as well as a natural rivalry for the Knights. The logical choice points to Memphis as the Florida market would already be opened by UCF and Memphis has a TON going for it when it comes to Big XII inclusion...as long as football stays up.

All of that is just my opinion on something that isn't likely to happen unless there is some separation from the NCAA or the Playoff doesn't expand.

(12-08-2014 10:29 AM)isidnirb Wrote:  P5 is gonna want TV market AND a good FB program.

UT-A and Oklahoma are losing their lunch money to Baylor and TCU, do they really want another good FB program?

One thing to remember. Walt Disney Company owns, ESPN, and ABC. Although there headquarters are not in Orlando...one might think that UCF/USF being in the Big Twelve has some appeal to them...

Frank The Tank has called a lot of these changes. He is pretty sharp on conference expansion...even though I often hate what he predicts..he is very accurate.

Frank The Tank's Slant

(12-08-2014 10:27 AM)isidnirb Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:20 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  No disrespect but I don't understand Memphis. UConn seems like a better fit than Memphis. Cincinnati is a no brainer.

UConn is the best in Basketball but brings zero in FB. That will hurt you. Money is in FB, thus the attention on BYU, Boise, Cinn and potentially one of the FL schools. They are all either a recognized National brand or have a footprint in a great market. ECU would be considered due to FB but we have no TV market.

I don't think there is a wider gap in FBS between basketball and football programs than there is at UConn. I think the B12 picks in the same order the Big East did (excluding USF).

I don't get the Boise love. They offer nothing except late games on a blue field. No TV, no recruiting area, no academics, and no TV.

(12-08-2014 10:00 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:58 AM)isidnirb Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:52 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:47 AM)ECUgradstudent Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:42 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  I have no idea who would or would not be picked. I don't see Boise as one picked, TV would be the driving force and Boise has no market size.

Byu without stipulation would be a home run, but they will always have stipulations.

Cincy has real advantages, and disadvantages, but would have to be near the top of the list.

UCONN is out of the way, but has tons of positives in its favor, Same for UCF or USF.

The same things that made ECU down the list on BE still apply.
Memphis has a lot of positives.

Without BYU I really can't see B12 going west, so I guess some combo of Cincy, UCF, Memphis, and USF would be most likely, but who knows what matrix they will use.

Boise does not need a local market. They have national and ESPN appeal as shown by ratings, games ESPN set up for them, deals Big East and MWC gave them, and etc.

Not sure the last couple of years have not made BYU more humble and changed their stipulations alot. The BIG 12 deal on third teir rights covers their BYU TV concerns. Makes them a smaller Texas/Longhorn network situation.

Boise did NOT have a special deal with the Big East- that's precisely why they went back to the MWC. And the MWC sold out their other schools to let Boise rob them. Boise demanded more money from the Big East, comapred to other teams, and the Big East correctly say "go pound sand".

Boise's ratings aren't that great either. A major problem that they can't overcome is that too many games are at 10 pm Eastern time.

BYU being humble has nothing to do with their religious stance and strict adherance to it. NO. SUNDAY. GAMES. Period. That's a major, major issue for most every conference and has been a main reason they haven't been considered for expansion.

Don't count out Colorado State and/or Air Force. Two schools already in their back yard. BYU trumps all if the concede somehow with TV. Everything else is a muddled picture of positives and negatives.

I just don't see them taking any more Texas schools, caring about UConn due to poor FB, Temple for multiple reasons, same for Tulane and Tulsa.

It is all about money and keeping the shares high. BYU will increase it. Can't say much for many more schools. Who else can bring more money to their TV package?

Colorado Springs TV market = no chance for CSU.

Colorado State is in Ft. Collins, not Colorado Springs but the city it is in is irrelevant. CSU is a state school and the TV market includes Denver, which makes them quite desirable. That on campus stadium will be built too.

(12-08-2014 10:27 AM)isidnirb Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:20 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  No disrespect but I don't understand Memphis. UConn seems like a better fit than Memphis. Cincinnati is a no brainer.

UConn is the best in Basketball but brings zero in FB. That will hurt you. Money is in FB, thus the attention on BYU, Boise, Cinn and potentially one of the FL schools. They are all either a recognized National brand or have a footprint in a great market. ECU would be considered due to FB but we have no TV market.

Despite bad on-the-field football, UCONN has the highest revenue of any G5 school. Not all expansion decisions were made on football performance. Some were market-driven.

UCONN is one of the most valuable schools despite its currently bad football. The potential to increase this figure with quality football makes UCONN's ceiling a lot higher than most G5 programs.

(12-08-2014 10:29 AM)isidnirb Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:25 AM)UConn-SMU Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:04 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  Why would ESPN go out of their way to lobby for the Boise, Idaho TV market?

You're losing sight of what matters.

1. TV market
2. TV market
3. TV marekt
4. TV market

In that case, UConn has its own top 25 market with Hartford/Springfield/New Haven. Plus the added bonus of NYC (tied there with Rutgers, Syracuse, Penn State, and ND).

P5 is gonna want TV market AND a good FB program.

Football programs go up and down. What's good today will suck in 5 years.

In my humble opinion, TV sets are what matter. Money wise, no one cares if you are the most popular team in a region, but how many households a cable company can add a "Big 12" channel to. Rutgers and Maryland should have taught everyone that.
Also, the Big 12 has a perception problem. They don't want to be seen as the weakest P5, so I think they will also look at football perception too.
I do think that they are also concerned somewhat with geography. They don't want to be seen as desperate and going out and picking up far flung schools. I think if they had it to do over again, thy never would have invited WV.
With all that said, this is how I see them ranking their choices...
1. Cincy- best choice out if all
2. BYU - don't see it only because of the stipulations that the church enforces, but is the best other choice
3. Memphis - would be an easy choice if football had been good longer than one year
4. Colorado St - only if Cincy goes Big 12 still needs to have a bridge to WVU
5. UCF - too far away
6. ECU - same prob as UCF
7.Boise - same problem as ECU
8. Tulane - if they were more committed to sports, they would have been picked up long ago
9. Houston- Big 12 already has that TV market
10 SMU - see Houston

IMO the biggest factors, not in any order, are >>>

1. Good TV market

2. Good recruiting area

3. Decent football (decent basketball a plus in some B12 circles)

4. Decent academic reputation

5. Location

So, on balance, I think if they add anyone it'll be BYU and Cincinnati. If they add four it'll be BYU, Cincinnati, Memphis, and UCF.

This time I think the TV market argument is not valid. I say this only because revenue or increasing shares of the revenue to be on par with other leagues payout is not the reason they might be looking to expand. If they expand it is out of a reaction to being left out the CFP. That is the only reason. Now sure the team cant be a D3 school but it's more about we need a championship game.

(12-08-2014 10:39 AM)tnzazz Wrote:  I don't get the Boise love. They offer nothing except late games on a blue field. No TV, no recruiting area, no academics, and no TV.

It is like Miami, they are a good national team. Boise St keeps winning even when they keep losing coaches. Like it or not, they are a national brand in College Football. I have to say the earned it. Three Fiesta Bowls in the past 10 years (including this one). I remember the start of this season many of the AAC fans said Boise was done when the coach left and they still keep on winning.

13 Year Bowl streak neither Memphis, Cincy, UCONN, UCF or ECU have that with as many Major Bowl appearances. Especially doing it without the Auto BCS bid. The only one that comes close is Cincy.

(12-08-2014 10:54 AM)3rdWardCoog Wrote:  This time I think the TV market argument is not valid....

That's the same as saying the money argument isn't valid - no?

To the people claiming BYU, please explain to me how they'll deal with the massive issues that have ALWAYS been around this time?

BYU cannot play on Sunday and have a laundry list of other restrictions. This is not an Athletics decision, this is a University directed manadate as based upon their faith.

The Big 12, like most conferences, play ALOT of games on Sunday in all sports. And the southern Baptists who run the Big 12, frankly, will not like being dictated to by the BYU leadership.

BYU has literally been as "attractive" as they are today for the past 30 years. These issues have always prevented other conferences from adding them and they absolutely were a decision for the PAC12 to not add BYU (and instead add Utah).

I hope this actually happens. And congrats to whoever gets the call.

I'd love to find out the future of whether UConn will have a football program sooner rather than later. If I never go on a conference realignment message board again - whether UConn is placing FCS football with all sports in the Big East or in a P5 conference - I'd be happier than I currently am with the AD's current status.

I don't know if I even care anymore, but I've invested so much time in watching UConn get kicked in the nuts everytime realignment happens I might as well see it through.

(12-08-2014 10:56 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  To the people claiming BYU, please explain to me how they'll deal with the massive issues that have ALWAYS been around this time?

BYU cannot play on Sunday and have a laundry list of other restrictions. This is not an Athletics decision, this is a University directed manadate as based upon their faith.

The Big 12, like most conferences, play ALOT of games on Sunday in all sports. And the southern Baptists who run the Big 12, frankly, will not like being dictated to by the BYU leadership.

BYU has literally been as "attractive" as they are today for the past 30 years. These issues have always prevented other conferences from adding them and they absolutely were a decision for the PAC12 to not add BYU (and instead add Utah).

I predicted BYU based on the assumption that they'll give ground. I base them giving ground on their coaches comments re wanting in the Big 12 and the recent change of college football rules.

(12-08-2014 10:57 AM)Hank Schrader Wrote:  I hope this actually happens. And congrats to whoever gets the call.

I'd love to find out the future of whether UConn will have a football program sooner rather than later. If I never go on a conference realignment message board again - whether UConn is placing FCS football with all sports in the Big East or in a P5 conference - I'd be happier than I currently am with the AD's current status.

I don't know if I even care anymore, but I've invested so much time in watching UConn get kicked in the nuts everytime realignment happens I might as well see it through.

IS UConn considering dropping down to FCS in football?