(12-08-2014 04:43 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  I am a bit late to the party, but here is my list. This is most a list of likelihood at the top, with mixtures of what I would do as well.

• 1) Cincinnati - this one makes the most sense due to proximity to West Virginia, ending their isolation, expanding the television market to a connected current Big 12 TV market, and a team that feels "acceptable." Cincinnati also has the best recent football history of any team on this list other than Boise, going back the last decade or so, and they historically have had a good basketball pedigree, which does have value here. Not to mention, the Big 12 sort of owes WVU a solid, which is why I put Cincy as number one
  
  2) BYU - we know what BYU brings to the table. I list them second because there could still be issues, and/or the reputation of "dealing with" BYU could cause the deal to snag. So while they are probably the most valuable team, they may not be the most likely
  
  3) Memphis - they have everything the Big 12 could want in terms of being a Geographically contingent school (mostly), a decent sized new market, great and fertile recruiting grounds for football and basketball, a vibrant basketball program, and acting as a bridge to new member West Virginia. All they needed was a pulse in football, which seems to have happened. they have warts too: Football has been down for a long time, and they are in decidedly SEC territory. But they are a good look.
  
  4) UConn - again the positives and negatives have been beaten to death. Their biggest downfall is not bad football (bad football can actually help the existing Big 12 teams as they need bodies more than anything): it's new football.
  
  5/6) U_F - I am not using the missing acronym as an insult. I simply rank the chances the same for each school. Both have many similar attributes in terms of market size, enrollment size, growth potential, recruiting turf, etc. UCF is much hotter now, but USF has more history in a power conference, which I think balances their chances out. However while Florida schools have been used to being on an island, I am not sure if they are wanting to recreate that scenario, which means it might be double or nothing for these two. Plus like UConn: they have new football programs.
  
  7) Tulane - Personally I don't see it? I know what Tulane offers, and I get it: I am just note sure it ranks them ahead of anyone else on this list. But their name pops up way too often to ignore them.
  
  8) Boise St - Much like BYU, we all know their story. But they have had enough long term success that they cannot be written off. Their "new" football program is not an issue, due to unmitigated success.
  
  9) Colorado State - Continuous state that gets the Big 12 into a former market. CSU may not carry the state on it's own, but many decades of Colorado being a Big Eight/Big XII state may not have completely switched allegiances yet.
  
  10) Houston - I know, sounds crazy. A 5th Texas team. I only mention them because the Big 12 has to be a little nervous about the SEC encroachment on the city of Houston. This would be a good line of defense.

Teams excluded from my list:
ECU - their positives too closely resemble what UCF can bring to the table in terms of support, and recent success, only with less upside (market). They also have an issue of oversaturation in the North Carolina market. Also, the Big 12 has a lot of ego: they will not take the last (all sport) team to the AAC. I realize I have Tulane on this list which seems to go against that, but they are not on the list by choice.

NIU - Similar profile and market accessibility as Colorado State only without the history of Big 12 football

SMU - If another Texas school is needed, one in DFW is the least needed place to add one.

Temple - Has potential. But based on profile, is more of a poor man's UConn. Not meaning to insult, just that UConn offers much of the same (large markets, good academics, good basketball, only better in all areas)

Air Force - The reasoning for them to remove from consideration the first time have not changed
New Mexico, Nevada, San Diego St - I don't see them going west for anyone other than BTU or Boise.

Ah, ECU wasn't the last all sports member, Tulsa was. At least get your fact straight.

BYU depends purely on their Sunday sports issue. Signing them to a football only contact would be the best option I think.

Cincinnati and Memphis both bring fertile recruiting grounds, large monetary backing, excellence in basketball and both have their football programs in the right direction.

UConn is a bit out of range geographically and lacks any semblance of solid football currently. They would however be a fine add purely based on their basketball dominance.

Boise state is the farthest away of all of these teams from Texas and lacks academics. On top of that they've got a weak basketball program, and don't bring anything to the table in terms of recruiting grounds or television markets.

UCF brings the best recruiting grounds and excellent tv market but also not much in basketball. They'd also be on an island, albeit a strong island because it would give the B12 an eastern starting point for future expansion.

(12-08-2014 10:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:10 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:07 PM)MickMack Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 08:58 PM)Waterloo Wrote:  If Cincy, UCF leave for the Big XII (as hypothesized in my comment), there is no more wheat. The best of the rest programs will pretty much be the MWC top programs and maybe Houston and ECU, maybe. ECU is just too far east to make it work and not valuable enough to add a bunch of dead wood in between the MWC and the east coast to make the Pirates fit into a more unremarkable coast to coast conference. ECU may be better served going indy.

You're probably right if it's UC and UCF. Memphis could be attractive if it maintains its recent success. ECU deserves to be in the upper echelon of the G5, but geography may be its enemy. USF has probably burned up all of its chances. The Texas schools can look west. I don't think Temple or UConn can ever have sustained success, even in the G5. I guess I always envisioned the schools out West coming East, but I think you're right - no more wheat.

UCF has the largest upside potential for growth of any possible candidate...including UC. Their growth is been nothing less than astounding and nothing I see is slowing it down.

I don't agree. They are #4 or #5 in Florida. Memphis is #2 in Tennessee. Anything below #2 limits you no matter how much talent and how many people are in the state. Its also a state with a lot of transplants (so fewer Tshirt fans) and there are lots of pro teams, although there is no pro football actually in Orlando.

Keep in mind that UCF is pumping out more grads than any school in Fla and growing faster than any of the others. My comments revolve around future growth. No school in America has more upside potential today than UCF...none.

(12-08-2014 10:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:10 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:07 PM)MickMack Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 08:58 PM)Waterloo Wrote:  If Cincy, UCF leave for the Big XII (as hypothesized in my comment), there is no more wheat. The best of the rest programs will pretty much be the MWC top programs and maybe Houston and ECU, maybe. ECU is just too far east to make it work and not valuable enough to add a bunch of dead wood in between the MWC and the east coast to make the Pirates fit into a more unremarkable coast to coast conference. ECU may be better served going indy.

You're probably right if it's UC and UCF. Memphis could be attractive if it maintains its recent success. ECU deserves to be in the upper echelon of the G5, but geography may be its enemy. USF has probably burned up all of its chances. The Texas schools can look west. I don't think Temple or UConn can ever have sustained success, even in the G5. I guess I always envisioned the schools out West coming East, but I think you're right - no more wheat.

UCF has the largest upside potential for growth of any possible candidate...including UC. Their growth is been nothing less than astounding and nothing I see is slowing it down.

I don't agree. They are #4 or #5 in Florida. Memphis is #2 in Tennessee. Anything below #2 limits you no matter how much talent and how many people are in the state. Its also a state with a lot of transplants (so fewer Tshirt fans) and there are lots of pro teams, although there is no pro football actually in Orlando.

Baylor disagrees.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

(12-08-2014 10:17 PM)indydoug Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 11:02 AM)mike012779 Wrote:  It comes down to what Fox Sports and Texas says.. I can assure you there is no way Texas is agreeing to any teams if those 2 teams don't bring an extra 40 million with them. If Fox says yes we will give you an additional 40 million a year for those 2 teams...then the deal is done. Texas is getting into a playoff if they are 11-1 so they don't care.

Forbes is estimating B12cost itself $14M this year. Add $25m for conf. Championship and some value from UC and Memphis/UCF and you're there.

As noted on the other thread. The Forbes guy doesn't know what he is talking about. He has all the numbers wrong. Its $2-$4 million.

(12-08-2014 10:29 PM)indydoug Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 01:14 PM)nosurf2day Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 01:03 PM)The Knight Time Wrote:  FWIW

@TuxedoYoda: It's happened. Not having a title game has cost the Big 12 a playoff spot. Cincinnati and UCF, pack your bags, you're joining the Big 12.

@TuxedoYoda: @jmclerkin there is no expansion candidate within light years of what UCF begins to the table. When Big 12 expands, UCF is a lock.

Who is this tuxedoYoda you speak of?

Somebody who is wrong on nearly all of his expansion picks.......

I think he was asking a more basic question.

Tuxedo Yoda is well dressed green guy with funny ears who died long ago in a galaxy far, far away and now uses his powers of the force to communicate with someone in the Texas athletic department, probably a janitor.

Janitor have access to more information than you might think!

1) They are always working and often overhear conversations.
2) They empty garbage cans and shred documents.
3) They have access to all employees.
4) Clean the mailroom.
5) Have access to all executive offices.
6) Knowledge is power!
7) Sports writers would pay handsomely for hot tips and leads!

(12-09-2014 06:38 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:10 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:07 PM)MickMack Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 08:58 PM)Waterloo Wrote:  If Cincy, UCF leave for the Big XII (as hypothesized in my comment), there is no more wheat. The best of the rest programs will pretty much be the MWC top programs and maybe Houston and ECU, maybe. ECU is just too far east to make it work and not valuable enough to add a bunch of dead wood in between the MWC and the east coast to make the Pirates fit into a more unremarkable coast to coast conference. ECU may be better served going indy.

You're probably right if it's UC and UCF. Memphis could be attractive if it maintains its recent success. ECU deserves to be in the upper echelon of the G5, but geography may be its enemy. USF has probably burned up all of its chances. The Texas schools can look west. I don't think Temple or UConn can ever have sustained success, even in the G5. I guess I always envisioned the schools out West coming East, but I think you're right - no more wheat.

UCF has the largest upside potential for growth of any possible candidate...including UC. Their growth is been nothing less than astounding and nothing I see is slowing it down.

I don't agree. They are #4 or #5 in Florida. Memphis is #2 in Tennessee. Anything below #2 limits you no matter how much talent and how many people are in the state. Its also a state with a lot of transplants (so fewer Tshirt fans) and there are lots of pro teams, although there is no pro football actually in Orlando.

Keep in mind that UCF is pumping out more grads than any school in Fla and growing faster than any of the others. My comments revolve around future growth. No school in America has more upside potential today than UCF...none.

I just don't think that's enough when you have Florida, Florida St. and Miami above you. As for recruiting, they also have every school in the SEC and ACC above them in the pecking order. And they have to compete with a lot of Big 10 schools as well.

I don't think either U_F school would benefit much (other than $) going alone to the Big 12. They would have a better chance going together, creating a critical mass of attention. But they would still be 4 & 5 in Florida.

(12-09-2014 09:22 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Janitor have access to more information than you might think!

1) They are always working and often overhear conversations.
2) They empty garbage cans and shred documents.
3) They have access to all employees.
4) Clean the mailroom.
5) Have access to all executive offices.
6) Knowledge is power!
7) Sports writers would pay handsomely for hot tips and leads!

Too true. At every job I've ever had, the first people I've made friends with are the secretaries and the janitors. They often (not always, but often) know more about what's going on than the CEO.

I don't see why people are suggesting 14. Their whole position the entire way is they want the least amount of mouths to feed possible. Right now that is 10. We're potentially looking at a scenario where 12 because the minimum to accomplish their goals (get CCG money and hopefully make playoffs). Nothing in there suggests anything about 14. As one of the potential candidates, 14 sounds great to me, but that is the thing I keep hearing that seems to be based on nothing but wishful thinking.

(12-09-2014 09:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-09-2014 09:22 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Janitor have access to more information than you might think!

1) They are always working and often overhear conversations.
2) They empty garbage cans and shred documents.
3) They have access to all employees.
4) Clean the mailroom.
5) Have access to all executive offices.
6) Knowledge is power!
7) Sports writers would pay handsomely for hot tips and leads!

Too true. At every job I've ever had, the first people I've made friends with are the secretaries and the janitors. They often (not always, but often) know more about what's going on than the CEO.

This was very true in the Banking World that I worked in.

(12-09-2014 09:47 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  

(12-09-2014 09:40 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(12-09-2014 09:22 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  Janitor have access to more information than you might think!

1) They are always working and often overhear conversations.
2) They empty garbage cans and shred documents.
3) They have access to all employees.
4) Clean the mailroom.
5) Have access to all executive offices.
6) Knowledge is power!
7) Sports writers would pay handsomely for hot tips and leads!

Too true. At every job I've ever had, the first people I've made friends with are the secretaries and the janitors. They often (not always, but often) know more about what's going on than the CEO.

This was very true in the Banking World that worked in.

Now we know what went wrong in '07-'08.

You guys are totally overblowing recruiting grounds. For you that say "UCF gets them Florida, or UC gets them Ohio", are you actually thinking or just saying some empty comment? What will the pitch be: "okay, Dayton football player, come to Kansas so your family can see you play once out of four years, maybe twice if you start all four years. Also, it will depend on if we're in the same division."

Pretty sure the Big XII didn't invite WVU because they wanted the fertile coal lands of WV recruiting. They were the best football program available. So I ask, who are the best football programs available?

Boise is too consistent to deny. I think UCF and UC are solid too. Nobody brings the fans of BYU though. BYU and Boise for football-only is the least amount of hassle and they are better national brands. It doesn't upset the basketball round-robin either. Hell, if the league cared so much about WVU then they'd invite Duquesne for olympic sports. 5+ hours on a bus isn't really a travel partner, is it?

(12-09-2014 10:01 AM)esayem Wrote:  You guys are totally overblowing recruiting grounds. For you that say "UCF gets them Florida, or UC gets them Ohio", are you actually thinking or just saying some empty comment? What will the pitch be: "okay, Dayton football player, come to Kansas so your family can see you play once out of four years, maybe twice if you start all four years. Also, it will depend on if we're in the same division."

Pretty sure the Big XII didn't invite WVU because they wanted the fertile coal lands of WV recruiting. They were the best football program available. So I ask, who are the best football programs available?

Boise is too consistent to deny. I think UCF and UC are solid too. Nobody brings the fans of BYU though. BYU and Boise for football-only is the least amount of hassle and they are better national brands. It doesn't upset the basketball round-robin either. Hell, if the league cared so much about WVU then they'd invite Duquesne for olympic sports. 5+ hours on a bus isn't really a travel partner, is it?

You raise two interesting points. First, yes, I think recruiting grounds are important. UC experienced an increase in basketball players from New York when we entered the Big East. Nebraska experienced an increase in football players from Ohio when they joined the Big Ten.

Second, Boise has a great football program. But these decisions are ultimately signed off on by college presidents. Two years ago Boise had a 6% 4-year graduation rate. Let that sink in for a minute, and ask yourself if the President of Kansas, Texas, or Iowa State will sign off on adding them. It is now 11% according to US News, which is better but still probably half of where they need to be. That's only 1 metric, but Boise's academics are far behind in every category (including reputation, the hardest one to change).

University presidents can swallow a lot in the name of sports, but telling the world that Boise State is a similar institution to them? It won't happen.

(12-08-2014 10:11 PM)apex_pirate Wrote:  I agree with you. I don't see ECU getting selected. But adcorbett's logic/arguments for the exclusion are what I disagree with. I also feel that logic/arguments were unrealistically narrow versus looking at the entire picture, and lacked the clearly different driving factors. No point in arguing any of that if I don't think ECU is getting a look any way (regardless of whether they are on any list).

As I stated it was my opinion: not an attempted presentation of fact. That is fine if you disagree, but your retort was to present an "opinion" from ECU officials as a refute. I tis good information, but doesn't refute anything since it is also opinion based.. Obviously people are entitled to opinions, but it is perfectly okay to retort someone's opinion with a fact that changes the validity of the base of the opinion. I do that all the time, and that is good back and forth. That is not the issue. The problem is, your responded with something that is not factual in nature, but a PR opinion piece that (whether true or false is irrelevant, it is subjective in nature and not "factual") has a very clear agenda. But again, is based on opinion, not "fact."

(12-09-2014 12:56 AM)ecumbh1999 Wrote:  Ah, ECU wasn't the last all sports member, Tulsa was. At least get your fact straight.

If you want to nitpick, reading comprehension is your friend. ECU, Tulsa, and Tulane all joined the AAC the same day. I did nto use the word "invite." But if you want to be technical, ECU was given an "all sports invite to the then Big East on March 26, 2013. The same day Tulsa was. At worst it makes it semantics, but since you want to be butthurt about it... ahem, "at least get your facts straight."

To be added to a P5 conference you have to have all this variable going for you:

1) Be in a good TV market or have National or regional following and a good Alumnus base.
2) Can afford to play at the P5 Level.
3) Have good facilities and be committed to be successful in all sports.
4) You must bring value in either football or basketball, because they are goose that lays the golden eggs!
5) You are good fit to the foot print.

Available G5 teams that meet most of these are:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Houston
Memphis
San Diego State
SMU
South Florida

(12-09-2014 10:01 AM)esayem Wrote:  You guys are totally overblowing recruiting grounds. For you that say "UCF gets them Florida, or UC gets them Ohio", are you actually thinking or just saying some empty comment? What will the pitch be: "okay, Dayton football player, come to Kansas so your family can see you play once out of four years, maybe twice if you start all four years. Also, it will depend on if we're in the same division."

Not quite. You are a Carolina fan. Do you live in North Carolina? How many games are you exposed to locally that are from ACC members? Syndicated games, RSN games, radio broadcasts? How about newspaper or local media coverage? How often to do they mention other ACC teams? See what I mean? There is a lot more local coverage. Now for the Big XII, it does hurt that they don't combine their Tier 3 assets - not even necessarily in a conference network like the Big Ten and SEC have, just something to where other Big 12 games are shown in Big 12 markets. But anyway Fox Sports Ohio, for example, might feel the need to buy Big 12 off network rights, to show both Cincinnati games, and maybe others. The same way MASN and SNY do. They haven't to date, but that is just an example. If UConn were to join the Big 12 for example, SNY would buy every available Big 12 syndication package they could, just like they did with the Big East. If Memphis joined the Big 12, I think Fox Sports South might do the same thing.

(12-09-2014 10:39 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  To be added to a P5 conference you have to have all this variable going for you:

1) Be in a good TV market or have National or regional following and a good Alumnus base.
2) Can afford to play at the P5 Level.
3) Have good facilities and be committed to be successful in all sports.
4) You must bring value in either football or basketball, because they are goose that lays the golden eggs!
5) You are good fit to the foot print.

Available G5 teams that meet most of these are:

BYU
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Houston
Memphis
San Diego State
SMU
South Florida

Totally agree. The only question is, "What is (or should be) the Big12 footprint?"

If they head west, they'll have to manage two islands - even with east/west divisions. Can the Big12 service a footprint from West Virginia to California?

I think they'd like to add CSU and BYU but they're still stuck with WVU. I've seen a lot of people promoting BYU but their 2014 TV numbers weren't great (0.7 average) and unless you're Mormon, you really don't follow them, unlike Notre Dame (the other "religious" school).

The Big12 will have to head east (where TV ratings are higher) if they expand.

I honestly expect them to work out a tie-breaker system before expanding. The ADs and Bowlsby are just too greedy and short-sighted. They'll expand only as a last resort.

(12-09-2014 09:36 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-09-2014 06:38 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 10:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:10 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(12-08-2014 09:07 PM)MickMack Wrote:  You're probably right if it's UC and UCF. Memphis could be attractive if it maintains its recent success. ECU deserves to be in the upper echelon of the G5, but geography may be its enemy. USF has probably burned up all of its chances. The Texas schools can look west. I don't think Temple or UConn can ever have sustained success, even in the G5. I guess I always envisioned the schools out West coming East, but I think you're right - no more wheat.

UCF has the largest upside potential for growth of any possible candidate...including UC. Their growth is been nothing less than astounding and nothing I see is slowing it down.

I don't agree. They are #4 or #5 in Florida. Memphis is #2 in Tennessee. Anything below #2 limits you no matter how much talent and how many people are in the state. Its also a state with a lot of transplants (so fewer Tshirt fans) and there are lots of pro teams, although there is no pro football actually in Orlando.

Keep in mind that UCF is pumping out more grads than any school in Fla and growing faster than any of the others. My comments revolve around future growth. No school in America has more upside potential today than UCF...none.

I just don't think that's enough when you have Florida, Florida St. and Miami above you. As for recruiting, they also have every school in the SEC and ACC above them in the pecking order. And they have to compete with a lot of Big 10 schools as well.

I don't think either U_F school would benefit much (other than $) going alone to the Big 12. They would have a better chance going together, creating a critical mass of attention. But they would still be 4 & 5 in Florida.

There are so many variables that would immediately shift if UCF were to get into a P5 conference. What people fail to realize is that albeit UCF is currently behind those three, if and when UCF moves into a P5 conference that disparity will quickly shrink as UCF pumps out more and more alumni.

More eyes equals more attention, P5 = more eyes. As UCF rises in prominence, the shift will naturally happen especially when they are competing for a conference championship at the P5 level.

(12-09-2014 10:18 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  You raise two interesting points. First, yes, I think recruiting grounds are important. UC experienced an increase in basketball players from New York when we entered the Big East. Nebraska experienced an increase in football players from Ohio when they joined the Big Ten.

Second, Boise has a great football program. But these decisions are ultimately signed off on by college presidents. Two years ago Boise had a 6% 4-year graduation rate. Let that sink in for a minute, and ask yourself if the President of Kansas, Texas, or Iowa State will sign off on adding them. It is now 11% according to US News, which is better but still probably half of where they need to be. That's only 1 metric, but Boise's academics are far behind in every category (including reputation, the hardest one to change).

University presidents can swallow a lot in the name of sports, but telling the world that Boise State is a similar institution to them? It won't happen.

I am not advocating Boise to be a full member institution so their academic profile doesn't matter as they would be a football affiliate. I don't believe they have a chance at full membership right now.

Has West Virginia had an influx of players from Texas or vice versa? After a quick look, it doesn't appear to be significant. Cincinnati is much closer to NYC than it is to Texas.