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A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
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swvabucsfan Offline
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Post: #1
A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
The Bucs rebounding margin of +2.3 [39.3 to 37.0]so far this year is better than in some of the great years of the past like
2008-2009 (Pigram/Tiggs/Smith/Hamlin/Brown/Hubbard) +1.3; http://www.etsubucs.com/media/stats/mbba...amcume.htm
2003-2004 (Tim Smith/Wadood/Fields/Nuckles/Rhoda) +0.1; http://www.etsubucs.com/media/stats/mbba...amcume.htm
1991-92 (English/Talford/Dennis) -0.1; http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/scho.../1992.html
1990-1991 (English/Talford/Dennis/Jennings) -1.4; http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/scho.../1991.html

And to my surprise it is a huge improvement over last year (-3.1).

Part of this is team effort. But part of it is more effective post rebounding.
Last year Hunter Harris (5.4) and Lukas Poderis (2.4) averaged 7.8 rebounds per game in 36.3 minutes of play.
This year Ron Giplaye (7.0) and Alex Bates (3.5) have combined for an average of 10.5 rebounds per game in only 30.7 minutes of play.

Preseason I made a pretty good estimate of what a healthy Giplaye might do: “he looks like a useful contributor at 6.5 to 7.5 rebounds per 20 minutes”. That’s exactly what he’s doing at 7.0 rebounds in 18.3 minutes. His points per minute are also pretty much what he was doing in prior years. But I remained doubtful that he would in fact be back to health.

And prior stats completely failed to predict Alex Bates performance. As I noted: “In 3 years of play at Northeastern and Tennessee State Alex Bates averaged 9.2 minutes, 1.3 rebounds, 0.8 points on .529 (mostly very short range) and .400 from the free throw line with 0.4 blocks.” Instead Alex Bates numbers on a per minute basis have doubled for rebounds (.28 rpm versus .14 rpm in the past) and more than doubled for points (.30 ppm versus .087 in the past). His averages per game are now 12.5 minutes, 3.7 points on .643 from the field and .500 from the line with 3.5 rebounds. Just all around improvement thus far.

I am more than glad to have been wrong about Alex. Although I did note that “big men sometimes find themselves late”, I was not willing to make the leap of faith that seemed to be required absent statistical evidence in this case.

The best thing about these two is that they are only likely to improve as they get more game experience and confidence, and as the coaches learn how to use them.

I STILL would like to see more of Tommy Williams. He is smaller, but more mobile than either of the others, with a better set of offensive skills. And I like the words “junkyard dog” that keep popping up around him. He’s only gotten garbage minutes against 2 very weak teams. But he’s far outperformed either Giplaye or Bates on a per minute basis against those squads. There may well come a time when injury or fouls will have us looking for more post help. A little more floor time may help Tommy prepare for that.

Still, having too few minutes to go around is NOT the post problem that any of us expected going into this year.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2014 03:48 PM by swvabucsfan.)
12-06-2014 03:35 PM
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Bucfaithful Offline
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RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
Great analysis, swvabucsfan. I really like how Bartow's using the Giplaye/Bated tandem. Bates lacks foot speed/lateral quickness, but he's savvy underneath and, of course, has great size. Like Bates, Giplaye is very savvy in the post and possesses the strength and ferocity to go with his defensive post skills. It's early, but it seems as though our preseason hope is materializing: We speculated that we wouldn't need frontcourt scoring, just rebounding and solid defense from our frontcourt to win. That's exactly what we're getting thus far from these two.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2014 09:02 PM by Bucfaithful.)
12-06-2014 07:27 PM
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bucfan81 Offline
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RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram &am...
(12-06-2014 07:27 PM)Bucfaithful Wrote:  Great analysis, swvabucsfan. I really like how Bartow's using the Giplaye/Bated tandem. Bates lacks foot speed/lateral quickness, but he's savvy underneath and, of course, has great size. Like Bates, Giplaye is very savvy in the post and possesses the strength and ferocity to go with his defensive post skills. It's early, but it seems as though our preseason hope is materializing: We speculated that we wouldn't need frontcourt scoring, just rebounding and solid defense. That's exactly what we're getting thus far from these two.

I think that is the difference this year. We actually have the defense and rebounding inside to get the job done.
12-06-2014 07:42 PM
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shampoo Offline
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RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram &am...
I would like to know what Tommy could do against the teams we've played most recently. But I don't think he's going to get his chance this year, barring injury. He hasn't cracked the deep bench, IMO, because he does not have qualifying center size. Banks appears to be next in line, getting just a few minutes himself so far. We are running two forward-centers (Bates/Giplaye) at 5 that are working pretty well within the guard oriented system. The third 5 is Lester, of course, when we go small to press.

I think Tommy just missed the cut this time, and his size probably makes him really more of a Lester Wilson type 3/4, an area we are completely overloaded at. Hope he gets some decent time in conference, and doesn't get run off. I hate to see players done like that.

We will probably need him next season as a main man, not backup (thinking Jurkin and Williams might be the go to guys, Banks still a ?, Overstreet probably a modest sub until Redshirt Soph. season). And there's always a chance we sign another Juco of more qualifying size. Tommy was signed as a backup measure, it seemed, and our good fortune so far is just not to his advantage.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2014 10:33 PM by shampoo.)
12-06-2014 10:31 PM
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swvabucsfan Offline
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RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
The "small ball" approach can work great in small doses of 3-5 minutes or so. It creates havoc, causes turnovers and fast break opportunities, and, with our shooting, can swing a game in dizzying speed.

After that, though, good teams tend to adjust and hammer it inside on us. So, like switching up defenses as the opponent gets used to them, it works for us to switch from big to small.

One place where it might be interesting to see what Tommy could do is in the 5 in a small lineup. Right now when we go small we give up inside scoring. Lester doesn't score much inside - that's Tommy's bread & butter. Surround him with shooters (maybe leave Lester in, too) and he could give a small lineup a whole other dimension of inside scoring, better rebounding and some inside defense. Unlike Giplaye and Bates, he's fast enough not to slow it down.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2014 08:24 AM by swvabucsfan.)
12-07-2014 08:18 AM
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bucs77 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
Good thought about Tommy. Does anyone know why he is not getting any playtime?
12-07-2014 09:30 AM
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shampoo Offline
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RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
I agree that Tommy could be potent in the small, controlled lineup that presses. I think, unfortunately for him, that also makes him the 4th 5 behind Lester right now. We just don't go that deep, ever. Hope he gets his chance in a propitious way.
12-07-2014 10:36 AM
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ETSUfan1 Online
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Post: #8
RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram & Tiggs
Tommy isn't going to play unless there are injuries.
12-07-2014 10:42 AM
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Bucfaithful Offline
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Post: #9
RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram &am...
(12-07-2014 10:42 AM)ETSUfan1 Wrote:  Tommy isn't going to play unless there are injuries.

I think you're right. We're playing a deep bench this season, so I can't complain about that. I guess he just missed the cut, along with Banks (it seems). Lester's playing at such a high level and the duo of Bates/Giplaye is paying dividends. I see where it would be hard to get the 10 & 11th guys PT.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2014 12:49 PM by Bucfaithful.)
12-07-2014 12:46 PM
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CaptainJackAubrey Offline
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RE: A +2.3 rebounding margin: better than Wadood & Fields, better than Pigram &am...
Excellent research and comments.
12-07-2014 04:08 PM
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