(12-07-2014 12:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I just go by the objective SOS indicators like Sagarin, and those say Memphis and Marshall have played just about the same quality of schedule.

But its still an average, so it addresses the representative game played by the two, not the question of how challenging were the most challenging games played by the two schools. And its the second question that people have been focusing with respect to Marshall ever since its schedule was described in the pre-season as one of the weakest in the FBS.

Running the strength of the TOP of the schedules through your Sagarin "objective" ranking:

13. Arkansas (NIU L)
------- Top 25: NIU 1, Marshall 0
------- Top 50: NIU 1, Marshall 0

64. Northwestern (NIU W)
------- Top 75: NIU 2, Marshall 0

81. WKU (Marshall L)
82. Toledo (NIU W)
83. WMU (NIU W)
84. Rice (Marshall W)
86. UAB (Marshall W)
------- Top 100: NIU 4, Marshall 3

So objectively, NIU has a tougher top end to its schedule, with the break between its top and second quartile at 84.5, while the break between the top and second quartile for Marshall is 95.5.

The average is pulled down for NIU because it played both the weakling of the West, EMU, and the weakling of the East, Kent State, both about twenty spots lower than the weakest conference opponents Marshall faced in FAU and Southern Miss.

(12-07-2014 12:49 AM)Enaiu Wrote:  

(12-07-2014 12:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  And Marshall has two less losses.

NIU is 11-2

I was referring to Memphis. Sorry.

In NIU's case, Sagarin has NIU final SOS at 128, Marshall at 126. So hard to make a case for NIU > Marshall given the one less loss.

Of course with the Boise win, all is moot. Boise's SOS is 73, much better. That helped them.

(12-07-2014 04:41 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-07-2014 12:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I just go by the objective SOS indicators like Sagarin, and those say Memphis and Marshall have played just about the same quality of schedule.

But its still an average, so it addresses the representative game played by the two, not the question of how challenging were the most challenging games played by the two schools. And its the second question that people have been focusing with respect to Marshall ever since its schedule was described in the pre-season as one of the weakest in the FBS.

I get that. But my point is that is a silly thing to focus on, since it just looks at a slice of the schedule and throws out the rest, and there's no rational reason to throw out the rest. If team A plays one good team and two really bad teams, if we just look at the game they played against the good team we'd conclude they played a 'good' schedule when in fact they played a lousy one.

Can't pretend games versus lousy teams didn't happen. That has to be counted in your SOS.

Overall, counting yesterday's games, NIU's Sagarin SOS was 128, Memphis was 123, Marshall's was 126, so hard to argue that NIU or Memphis played a harder schedule. Now Boise, there SOS was 73. That's a pretty big difference.

(12-07-2014 06:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I get that. But my point is that is a silly thing to focus on, since it just looks at a slice of the schedule and throws out the rest, ...

Why is it silly to look at the most important part of the schedule, where a school tests itself against strong competition?

A regular season schedule against nobody in the top half of the FBS is not an effective audition piece for a ticket to a Big Bowl. It was excellent news that Boise State took care of business, since a two loss Boise State out of the MWC West would have been a better choice than Marshall with their schedule even if they had been undefeated.

(12-07-2014 07:26 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-07-2014 06:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I get that. But my point is that is a silly thing to focus on, since it just looks at a slice of the schedule and throws out the rest, ...

Why is it silly to look at the most important part of the schedule, where a school tests itself against strong competition?

A regular season schedule against nobody in the top half of the FBS is not an effective audition piece for a ticket to a Big Bowl. It was excellent news that Boise State took care of business, since a two loss Boise State out of the MWC West would have been a better choice than Marshall with their schedule even if they had been undefeated.

I explained why it's silly: "since it just looks at a slice of the schedule and throws out the rest, and there's no rational reason to throw out the rest."

Plus, even on your terms, those who denigrated Marshall didn't really care to evaluate whether those teams like NIU and Memphis actually passed or failed those "tests", they only seemed to care that they took them, which is itself silly.

I mean, NIU supporters tout their win over Northwestern, and denigrate Marshall's win over LA-Tech, but by the Massey composite, LA-Tech is ranked #43 while Northwestern is #71, so LA-Tech was actually a much tougher opponent. Marshall playing LA-Tech was a tougher test of worthiness for a big bowl than was NIU playing Northwestern.

But because Northwestern has the "P5" label, we're supposed to slobber all over NIU for scheduling them. And for getting tromped by 38 to a 6-6 Arkansas team.

It's just been so silly.

We'll never know who's better, unless they play in a bowl.