RE: (Opinion)C-USA likely to boot UAB and invite South Alabama
I'd be very surprised if a bid came our way. Our market is smaller than Texas State's or Georgia State's. We really don't expand the CUSA footprint, nor do we solve a travel problem like NMSU does. We're a new program with real, but not very high fan support at this point. We haven't won 8+ games the last 4 years like Arkansas State and ULL. We don't have an OCS, nor is there any immediate plan to build one.
Remember, USA's peers aren't Texas State or Georgia Southern or App, but Georgia State, ODU, UNCC, and UTSA. We're the smallest school in the smallest metro to try this and I think were doing fine in comparison to our 'instant FBS' peers.
But we know where we are and where we aren't. Could we compete in CUSA? Sure. Could we provide value to CUSA? Sure. Are we getting a bid? Probably not. And that's okay for both of us. One other advantage...it solidifies CUSA's middle geographically. It looks like CUSA is splitting into a Western and Eastern camp. A split could happen at some point. A minor point, but its there.
That being said, if a bid came, I'm sure it would be looked at. But USA's FBS plan was never predicated on being anywhere but the Sun Belt. We'll be fine, regardless of whether we're playing in the G5 Sun Belt or the G5 CUSA. We're the youngest program in history to make a bowl game. We're credible as an FBS team. Fan support is real, at a level sufficient to sustain the program, and is growing.
Quite frankly, I don't see why CUSA takes anyone at this point. Here are the candidates:
1) NMSU - solves a problem for the CUSA schools by allowing them two games on one road trip to El Paso. But what happens if the MWC gets raided and UTEP bolts back to the MWC? You're stuck with an outlier in NM. Good basketball, but the football?....yipes.
2) ULL - Good football, good fan support, good baseball, good basketball, good facilities. Desperate to leave the Belt and join CUSA. Only question is what La Tech wants to do with them
3) Texas State - Great facilities, credible football product, huge enrollment, growing metro. But Texas State gets smothered by UT in its own metro. Also would UNT, Rice, and UTSA want another team in the Texas Triangle?
4) Georgia State - Bring a market (that they don't deliver - but the cable companies don't care about that) and little else. Would cause division issues.
5) Ark State - Good football, good fan support, decent facilities, and close to a major and unrepresented major market. Traditional rivals in the region. Do they really want to go? Also, there's a division issue to look at as well as Ark State wouldn't be in the division with its traditional rivals.
6) USA - Decent football, awful facilities, decent fan support, reasonably good fan support, good baseball, and historically good basketball. USM might not like them in the hood. Would have no problem being in the West.
7) JMU - Good facilities, FCS moveup, no market claim. Would cause divisional problems for the conference.
8) UMass (football only) - Huge outlier but allows CUSA to kick the can down the road a bit and see how things shake out. By the way, if you're UAB, I would think that you would want UMass on a temporary (like the Sun Belt's deal with Idaho) basis as a football only because that could keep you in the conference for Olympic sports.
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