The Tigers (ranked 57th in the latest Kenpom Metric) start off a 9 game home stand tonight against the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (ranked 101st).

SFA is 3-3 and their schedule has shaken out as follows:

W Mississippi College (Unranked) 75-49 Home
L Northern Iowa (33rd) 79-77 OT Home
L Xavier (45th) 81-63 Away
L Baylor (14th) 67-51 Away
W Prairie View (320th; without Scott but with York) 73-61 Neutral
W Austin Peay (247th) 83-62 Neutral

We've played two common opponents, although the Prairie View team we played was missing York.

SFA is balanced, with their offensive efficiency ranking 96th and defensive efficiency ranking 105th. The Tigers, on the other hand, are a much better defensive team (34th) than an offensive team (87th).

SFA's offensive constraints usually stem from turning the ball over too much (286th in TO%) and accruing 40 in their last 2 games. On defense, their shortcomings come by way of fouls. So. Many. Fouls. Opponents are shooting almost 50% of the amount of FTs as FG attempts from the field (hint: that is really, really high). It's pretty clear that SFA plays extremely aggressive defense, because they counter-balance all those fouls by forcing turnovers on 21% of opponent's possessions (ranked right outside the top 100 at 102nd).

SFA is really, really short, the 21st "shortest team" by individual position. Their starting lineup runs 5'9", 6'0", 6'4", 6'6", 6'9" with no one heavier than 210. They will run 10 deep though, with only two players (Walkup (SF) and Parker (PF)) getting more than 60% of the available minutes.

Their best player by far is Thomas Walkup, 6'4" 195 lb Jr. who spends time at the 3 and a little at the 4. He's averaging about 14.5 pts per game, 5 rebs and 2.2 assists per game. He's especially dangerous on the offensive glass, pulling down 2.5 per game. He plays a physical brand, both fouling alot (5.4 fouls per 40 minutes) and drawing fouls from his opponents (drawing 5 fouls per 40 mins). I could see Hawkins getting some minutes tonight if King has trouble staying with Walkup.

Also of note is Jacob Parker (6'6" 210 lb Sr.), their 4 and 5 man, who is a threat to splash it from deep (13 of 25 on the year, 52%). He's also their leading rebounder at 6.33 per outing. He's their leading scorer with 15.8 pts per game, although a less rounded player than Walkup. He'll look to cause match problems against Austin, Shaq and Colby. They need to stay on his hip even when he's out on the perimeter or away from the play. This effectively takes one of our extremely prolific shot blockers out of teh equation on D, too.

THEMES OF THE GAME:

- Squeeze the Orange: Both teams turn the ball over at a high rate. The team that can limit turnovers puts the other at an extreme disadvantage. Trey Pinkney, SFA's starting PG, has turnover problems and our guards need to start capitalizing by making steals and getting easy buckets in transition. If SFA's defense is turning us over and we're not doing the same to them, that's a bad sign.

- Get out on their shooters: No one on the Lumberjack's squad is an extremely dangerous shooter besides Parker. However, they are averaging over 20 3 attempts per game, so they love to chuck it especially against more talented teams. If we don't close out on shooters, even the mediocre ones, that could allow the 3 pt shot to equalize the playing field here. This is a responsibility from 1 to 5 on defense, as even their posts are a threat to shoot the ball.

- Physicality: We'll be the much bigger and much stronger team. There's no reason this game shouldn't be anything more than a slow, grind it out affair with us using our height and weight to punish them inside. If both rebounds and points in the paint are not clearly in our favor by the end of the game, things have gone awry. Additionally, getting to the foul line and converting our FTs should help us not only build an easy lead, but keep some of their playmakers on the bench with foul trouble. King, Nichols, Shaq and Burrell should live at the FT line tonight.

I biffed my last prediction on the Prairie View game, predicting a tight one. Tonight, I think we'll lead all game by about 2 or 3 possessions, never really putting SFA away. We'll pull away down the stretch as SFA is forced to foul and we make our fouls shots. Tigers win a grinder 65-54.

Good synopsis! Thanks Canes!

Also: Don Henley is an Alumnus. So you can blame them for "Sunset Grill."

(12-02-2014 12:30 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  Also: Don Henley is an Alumnus. So you can blame them for "Sunset Grill."

Wow, weird. I've had "Boys of Summer" stuck in my head today for no discernible reason.

(12-02-2014 12:30 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  Also: Don Henley is an Alumnus. So you can blame them for "Sunset Grill."

Hopefully they Take it Easy on us after our Lyin' Eyes coach left us and we got The New Kid in Town.

I think the game will be close. Give me Memphis 72 SFA 65. But I wouldn't be surprised if we lost.

This isn't last year's SFA. That team went 31-2 and beat VCU in the NCAA tourney. They lost their top scorer from 13-14...making them essentially a 2-man team this year. They do have a lot of experience, but that roster really is not that good.

Tigers SHOULD roll, but we shall see. I expect a win, but this SFA team played Baylor better than we did...so ya never know!

GTG, regardless.

(12-02-2014 12:30 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  Also: Don Henley is an Alumnus. So you can blame them for "Sunset Grill."

Don Henley eventually landed at North Texas, now UNT.

(12-02-2014 12:33 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(12-02-2014 12:30 PM)Briskbas Wrote:  Also: Don Henley is an Alumnus. So you can blame them for "Sunset Grill."

Wow, weird. I've had "Boys of Summer" stuck in my head today for no discernible reason.

Me too, it's that time of year. One of my all time favorites.

(12-02-2014 01:23 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  This isn't last year's SFA. That team went 31-2 and beat VCU in the NCAA tourney. They lost their top scorer from 13-14...making them essentially a 2-man team this year. They do have a lot of experience, but that roster really is not that good.

Tigers SHOULD roll, but we shall see. I expect a win, but this SFA team played Baylor better than we did...so ya never know!

GTG, regardless.

They didn't have a 15 point 2nd half. Not sure how you quantify played Baylor better than we did. We both lost. They beat PV by 12. We beat them by 28. On a neutral court it would be fairly close. Should win in the FEF. The biggest question is how many fans show up. We had one game last year fans in the 14-15K range, Lemoyne-Owen. The PV game had 14K so it should be interesting how many fans will come out to an early game on a Tuesday night to play a team most have never heard of.

(12-02-2014 01:23 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  This isn't last year's SFA. That team went 31-2 and beat VCU in the NCAA tourney. They lost their top scorer from 13-14...making them essentially a 2-man team this year. They do have a lot of experience, but that roster really is not that good.

Tigers SHOULD roll, but we shall see. I expect a win, but this SFA team played Baylor better than we did...so ya never know!

GTG, regardless.

They return three of their starters, and Parker and Walkup were arguably more important players than Haymon last season.

They lost a lot of their shooting from last year and I think that's really impacting their offense right now. Still, I don't want to be the team against which they "find" their new shooters. They're a top 100 team by all respects, so we're in for a game.

I watched the last 8 minutes or so of the SFA/PVAMU game at the Orleans and wasn't too impressed with either team. We should beat them pretty easily I think.

(12-02-2014 01:43 PM)MemphisCanes Wrote:  

(12-02-2014 01:23 PM)HometownTiger Wrote:  This isn't last year's SFA. That team went 31-2 and beat VCU in the NCAA tourney. They lost their top scorer from 13-14...making them essentially a 2-man team this year. They do have a lot of experience, but that roster really is not that good.

Tigers SHOULD roll, but we shall see. I expect a win, but this SFA team played Baylor better than we did...so ya never know!

GTG, regardless.

They return three of their starters, and Parker and Walkup were arguably more important players than Haymon last season.

They lost a lot of their shooting from last year and I think that's really impacting their offense right now. Still, I don't want to be the team against which they "find" their new shooters. They're a top 100 team by all respects, so we're in for a game.

The guys that left accounted for about 75% of their made 3pt shots last year.

Whats really gross is that this is one of the two best games left on our OOC schedule. This team should have confidence going into the conference portion with a decent record

(12-02-2014 05:01 PM)alcalde Wrote:  Whats really gross is that this is one of the two best games left on our OOC schedule. This team should have confidence going into the conference portion with a decent record

Oklahoma State and Gonzaga are left.