georgia_tech_swagger
Res publica non dominetur
Posts: 51,420
Joined: Feb 2002
Reputation: 2019
I Root For: GT, USCU, FU, WYO
Location: Upstate, SC
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Chaos Theory
I'd give it like 20 to 1 odds .... but then I'd have given GT those odds to beat UGAg last weekend. Here goes. From the AJC:
Quote:At any rate, of the 15 teams ahead of No. 16 Tech, five of them lost this weekend – No. 4 Mississippi State (to No. 19 Ole Miss, 31-17), No. 8 UCLA (to Stanford, 31-10), No. 9 Georgia (to Tech), No. 13 Arizona State (to No. 11 Arizona, 42-35) and No. 15 Auburn (to No. 1 Alabama, 55-44).
So, at minimum, Tech will move up two spots, to No. 14. For what it’s worth, I could find two similar results, rankings-wise, to Tech’s win Saturday.
1. Nov. 8, No. 14 Ohio State beat No. 8 Michigan State 49-37 on the road. That same week, Nos. 3, 5, 7 and 10 also lost. Ohio State moved up to No. 8 and Michigan State dropped to No. 12.
2. The next week, No. 15 Georgia beat No. 9 Auburn 34-7. The same week, Nos. 1 and 6 also lost. Georgia moved up to No. 9 and Auburn dropped to No. 14.
In both instances, I think you’d have to say Georgia and Ohio State won more convincingly than Tech did Saturday. You can argue about whether that matters, and what it says about a team when it wins in the fashion the Jackets did, if that is also impressive in its own way. I raise the point because “game control” is another criteria that the committee uses to differentiate teams and games. But, even still, in these examples, the wins weren’t so substantive that the loser dropped that far.
So perhaps, even though Tech didn’t demonstrate extended game control, taking Georgia’s No. 9 spot isn’t far-fetched, or even the No. 8 spot, depending on how the committee looks at No. 10 Michigan State and No. 11 Arizona. I’d say the highest Tech could aspire is No. 7, with Mississippi State dropping past the Jackets.
In this circumstance, the top 7 going into championship weekend looks like this:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. TCU
5. Ohio State
6. Baylor
7. Georgia Tech
In this scenario, could Tech possibly get into the playoff?
As much as it makes me shake my head to write it, I think it could. It would take a lot of upsets, but it’s not out of the question.
Friday night, No. 11 Arizona (perhaps No. 9 next week) upsets No. 2 Oregon to win the Pac-12. Missouri, now No. 17, topples No. 1 Alabama for the SEC title. The Jackets takes down No. 3 Florida State for the ACC championship. (Hypothetical No. 4 TCU plays Iowa State, but let’s just give the game to the Horned Frogs.) In games played nearly simultaneously with Tech-FSU, No. 14 Wisconsin brings down hypothetical No. 5 Ohio State for the Big Ten title and hypothetical No. 6 Baylor loses to Kansas State.
With the weight that the committee is purportedly giving to conference championships, maybe that’s enough to send Tech into the playoffs. And I’m not positive it would take that many upsets. If just Ohio State and Baylor got out of the way, might it not be enough if Tech proved itself clearly superior to the No. 3 team on a neutral field for the ACC championship that it deserved to be in the four-team field ahead of the Seminoles?
Mindboggling.
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