I agree that both Boise and Marshall have to lose and we win, of course, to get the all access bowl invite. Any other legit land mines, Memphis perhaps? I want it to be laid out we win, Boise and Marshall lose we are in. Be fun to watch.

Memphis (9-3), if they had an AAC championship game this year -- they would probably get the nod, IMO. But since they don't, NIU would have enough to be picked over them.

Memphis 3 Losses:
- @UCLA (9-3 P12) by only 7
- @Ole Miss (9-3 SEC) by 21
- Houston (8-4/7-5) by 4

Memphis Wins (against bowl-eligible teams):
- @Cinci (9-3/8-4) by 27
- Midd-Tenn (6-6) by 19
- Temple (6-6) by 3

-----------

NIU 2 Losses:
- @Arkansas (6-6 SEC) by 38
- CMU (7-5) by 17

NIU Wins (against bowl-eligible teams):
- Toledo (8-4) by 3
- @Ohio (6-6) by 7
- @WMU (8-4) by 10
- BGSU (7-5) by X


IMO, NIU would be picked over Memphis due to Memphis beating only *1* team over .500 (although a Good win), while NIU would beat 3 teams over .500 while also having 1 less loss.

(11-30-2014 12:25 PM)ChicagoHuskie Wrote:  I agree that both Boise and Marshall have to lose and we win, of course, to get the all access bowl invite. Any other legit land mines, Memphis perhaps? I want it to be laid out we win, Boise and Marshall lose we are in. Be fun to watch.

Look at the Coaches poll, Marshall 22 NIU 15 votes. And we know that the human polls were MUCH MUCH MUCH more gracious to Marshall than were the committee. I dont even think NIU vs Marshall would be that close in the committees eyes right now, NIU would get the nod. Scheduling apparently is one of their key considerations and while you can pull out numbers that say SOS for NIU/Marshall is about even, that is mainly due to insignificant conference games in the 80-125 range muddying the picture. NIU playing Arkansas and Northwestern would be much more favorable in the committees eyes. The problem is the MWC has a ridiculous championship game set up now where 6-6 Fresno State is going to lose by 50 to Boise so it doesnt even matter anymore unfortunately.

The committee wasn't favorable to Colorado State, Marshall, or Boise. They're not fans of any G5 in comparison to P5 teams.

(11-30-2014 01:14 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  The committee wasn't favorable to Colorado State, Marshall, or Boise. They're not fans of any G5 in comparison to P5 teams.

True, but especially Marshall because of their non-conf joke of a schedule. The committee was in a dilemma because of their quality non-conf game emphasis, Marshall would have been quite the embarassing pick for them.

Yeah, their OOC schedule was a joke. NIU has a better SoS than Marshall, but not by a big degree. The committee also looks at How teams win/lose and to who, etc. Like they said after their first release, to ND fans who complained ND being ranked too low: The almost-win against FSU actually Increased their value.

AP Poll: Minnesota 47, Duke 22, Marshall 22, Memphis 21, Colorado St. 18, Air Force 7, Stanford 4, West Virginia 4, N. Illinois 3, UCF 3, Cincinnati 1.
USATODAY Poll: Duke 50, Marshall 22, Colorado State 21, Cincinnati 18, Northern Illinois 15, Memphis 10

(11-30-2014 02:24 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Yeah, their OOC schedule was a joke. NIU has a better SoS than Marshall, but not by a big degree. The committee also looks at How teams win/lose and to who, etc. Like they said after their first release, to ND fans who complained ND being ranked too low: The almost-win against FSU actually Increased their value.

AP Poll: Minnesota 47, Duke 22, Marshall 22, Memphis 21, Colorado St. 18, Air Force 7, Stanford 4, West Virginia 4, N. Illinois 3, UCF 3, Cincinnati 1.
USATODAY Poll: Duke 50, Marshall 22, Colorado State 21, Cincinnati 18, Northern Illinois 15, Memphis 10

Again though, the human polls aren't putting the value on SOS that the committee is. The committee wants to see those bigger non-conf games early. The non-conf SOS of NIU/Marshall is worlds apart. NIU is not getting the bid, Boise obviously is, but Marshall is for sure eliminated. I guess Marshall could creep back in if both NIU and Boise lost, which obviously is like a 0.0003% chance of both those happening.

Quote:The non-conf SOS of NIU/Marshall is worlds apart.

True. NIU's SoS is tougher than Marshall's, but still in the same general low grouping on all places that show SoS. Dominance on the field against opponents takes care of a bit worse SoS than another team. The thing is, NIU did play some tougher ones and I think that's key...

Going by Massey ratings (just as an example) -- here's where I think a committee would focus on -- top teams you beat and who you lost to comparison:

NIU: @#23 Lost by 38, @#60 Won by 8, #77 Won by 3, #84 Won by 10, #96 Lost by 17

MAR: #78 Lost-OT by 1, #81 Won by 27, @#98 Won by 5, #106 Won by 25, @#109 Won by 42

(11-30-2014 04:54 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:The non-conf SOS of NIU/Marshall is worlds apart.

True. NIU's SoS is tougher than Marshall's, but still in the same general low grouping on all places that show SoS. Dominance on the field against opponents takes care of a bit worse SoS than another team. The thing is, NIU did play some tougher ones and I think that's key...

Going by Massey ratings (just as an example) -- here's where I think a committee would focus on -- top teams you beat and who you lost to comparison:

NIU: @#23 Lost by 38, @#60 Won by 8, #77 Won by 3, #84 Won by 10, #96 Lost by 17

MAR: #78 Lost-OT by 1, #81 Won by 27, @#98 Won by 5, #106 Won by 25, @#109 Won by 42

Again , you have to remember the computers are thrown out, the committee wants to see teams schedule good competition, they aren't going to dive into computers. NIU scheduled a very good non-conf schedule, Marshall didn't, I think its as simple as that.

Marshall lost to Western Kentucky. End of Discussion.

Quote:Again , you have to remember the computers are thrown out, the committee wants to see teams schedule good competition, they aren't going to dive into computers. NIU scheduled a very good non-conf schedule, Marshall didn't, I think its as simple as that.

Well, they analyze teams, performance, strength of their opponents, etc -- much more than the average voter of one of polls. I'm sure they take computations into account. It isn't OOC schedule, but all games. If Marshall had 1 loss and was in the SEC, they could have had their MAC East+FCS OOC and they'd be higher than all G5s of course.

I wasn't referring to computers -- just a random ranking for other opponents which would be ballpark. Basically to see the how well comparative teams do against the high-level, mid-level, and low-level teams.

If NIU's only loss was to #20-something @Arkansas, even by 38, early in the season -- yes, NIU would be no doubt higher ranked than Marshall, as Marshall's was against a would-be 6-6 team now 7-5, at home.

The question is -- HOW much better is NIU that they could afford a home loss to a lower-tier team CMU by 17, while also squeaking by bottom-tier teams? Well, beating a mid-level team @Northwestern helps, but since they're not bowl-eligible that may come into question. Beating 6-6 Ohio by 7 doesn't help any, since Marshall creamed a lot of 6-6 teams.

Beating @WMU and Toledo, two 8-4 teams is what they have to shine on VS Marshall only playing two other teams in that environment and losing to one. However, again, NIU lost solidly at home to one who's lower.

An extra loss Without dominating anyone while the other team has dominated many with 1 fewer loss, IMO, isn't going to make up for a mild SoS gap. In other words, it's not a "in the bag" that Marshall would be ranked lower than NIU by the committee who analyzes games played, etc. If NIU dominated a good portion of their games? Not beating Kent by only 3, pulling away from EMU in the 4th to win by 11, and fighting to keep Miami-OH off their back to win by 10 -- and beating 6-6 Ohio by 7 -- but instead thumping a good portion of them to define themselves better -- then I would say NIU would have a Great chance at being placed above Marshall at this point.

That's why one has to hope for Boise And Marshall to lose.

(11-30-2014 05:29 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Again , you have to remember the computers are thrown out, the committee wants to see teams schedule good competition, they aren't going to dive into computers. NIU scheduled a very good non-conf schedule, Marshall didn't, I think its as simple as that.

Well, they analyze teams, performance, strength of their opponents, etc -- much more than the average voter of one of polls. I'm sure they take computations into account. It isn't OOC schedule, but all games. If Marshall had 1 loss and was in the SEC, they could have had their MAC East+FCS OOC and they'd be higher than all G5s of course.

I wasn't referring to computers -- just a random ranking for other opponents which would be ballpark. Basically to see the how well comparative teams do against the high-level, mid-level, and low-level teams.

If NIU's only loss was to #20-something @Arkansas, even by 38, early in the season -- yes, NIU would be no doubt higher ranked than Marshall, as Marshall's was against a would-be 6-6 team now 7-5, at home.

The question is -- HOW much better is NIU that they could afford a home loss to a lower-tier team CMU by 17, while also squeaking by bottom-tier teams? Well, beating a mid-level team @Northwestern helps, but since they're not bowl-eligible that may come into question. Beating 6-6 Ohio by 7 doesn't help any, since Marshall creamed a lot of 6-6 teams.

Beating @WMU and Toledo, two 8-4 teams is what they have to shine on VS Marshall only playing two other teams in that environment and losing to one. However, again, NIU lost solidly at home to one who's lower.

An extra loss Without dominating anyone while the other team has dominated many with 1 fewer loss, IMO, isn't going to make up for a mild SoS gap. In other words, it's not a "in the bag" that Marshall would be ranked lower than NIU by the committee who analyzes games played, etc. If NIU dominated a good portion of their games? Not beating Kent by only 3, pulling away from EMU in the 4th to win by 11, and fighting to keep Miami-OH off their back to win by 10 -- and beating 6-6 Ohio by 7 -- but instead thumping a good portion of them to define themselves better -- then I would say NIU would have a Great chance at being placed above Marshall at this point.

That's why one has to hope for Boise And Marshall to lose.

Marshall is done, the committee never wanted them in with that just abysmal schedule. Its like in the NBA when there is a rule of emphasis, its "the thing" for a year or two. The thing now is to schedule teams in your non-conf and Marshall didn't do that, NIU did. In the old BCS system, Marshall would stay ahead of NIU, but not in this system, Marshall is history

Even with Marshall being done though, the Access spot is Boise's because they unfortunately have a joke of a championship game coming up against a HORRIFIC and I mean a HORRIFIC Fresno St. team.

Going by general ratings and me grouping/rating 1-10 (1 being best) of the team's FBS Opponents (both stomped their FCS teams):

Marshall (11-1):
#5 W. Kentucky - LOST BY 1 OT
#5 Rice - Won by 27
#6 @UAB - Won by 5
#6 MTSU - Won by 25
#7 @Old Dom - Won by 42
#7 Ohio - Won by 30
#8 @FL-Int - Won by 32
#8 FL-Atl - Won by 19
#8 @Akron - Won by 31
#9 @SMiss - Won by 46
#10 @Miami - Won by 14

NIU (10-2):
#3 @Arkansas - LOST BY 38
#5 @Northwestern - Won by 8
#5 @WMU - Won by 10
#5 Toledo - Won by 3
#6 CMU - LOST BY 17
#7 @Ohio - Won by 7
#8 @BSU - Won by 14
#10 Miami - Won by 10
#10 @UNLV - Won by 14
#10 Kent St - Won by 3
#10 @EMU - Won by 11

(11-30-2014 07:57 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Going by general ratings and me grouping/rating 1-10 (1 being best) of the team's FBS Opponents (both stomped their FCS teams):

Marshall (11-1):
#5 W. Kentucky - LOST BY 1 OT
#5 Rice - Won by 27
#6 @UAB - Won by 5
#6 MTSU - Won by 25
#7 @Old Dom - Won by 42
#7 Ohio - Won by 30
#8 @FL-Int - Won by 32
#8 FL-Atl - Won by 19
#8 @Akron - Won by 31
#9 @SMiss - Won by 46
#10 @Miami - Won by 14

NIU (10-2):
#3 @Arkansas - LOST BY 38
#5 @Northwestern - Won by 8
#5 @WMU - Won by 10
#5 Toledo - Won by 3
#6 CMU - LOST BY 17
#7 @Ohio - Won by 7
#8 @BSU - Won by 14
#10 Miami - Won by 10
#10 @UNLV - Won by 14
#10 Kent St - Won by 3
#10 @EMU - Won by 11

Marshall Sucks