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Hambone10 Online
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Post: #1
Question for La Tech fans
One of our posters does a great analysis of teams, basically an attempt to quantify the quality of teams and their expected 'good or bad' games...

La Tech has a VERY high performance variance (meaning you can beat teams that are much better on average, but also lose to teams that are much worse on average), but more significantly, you have an UNUSUALLY high difference between your mean and average performance.

This implies that you perhaps play to your competition? Well against good teams, poorly against bad ones? Were there any significant injuries or performances that would help explain this? Are you particularly good at home and bad on the road or vice versa?


Quote:Team, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation:
1. (1) Marshall 63.58 65.09 14.50
2. (3) Rice 51.84 48.40 9.62
3. (2) Louisiana Tech 49.94 58.11 21.35
4. (5) Alabama-Birmingham 49.36 47.98 16.15
5. (4) Western Kentucky 48.48 47.82 18.60
6. (6) Texas-El Paso 43.91 44.03 16.92
7. (7) Florida Atlantic 43.16 38.02 14.45
8. (8) Middle Tennessee State 39.89 42.97 8.09
9. (9) Texas-San Antonio 38.95 37.95 18.91
10. (10) Southern Mississippi 38.01 34.85 9.58
11. (11) Florida International 37.32 40.97 13.21
12. (12) Old Dominion 36.91 36.84 11.61
13. (13) North Texas 34.90 37.26 17.03
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2014 12:57 PM by Hambone10.)
11-26-2014 12:57 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Question for La Tech fans
We are just inconsistent.

We played our best against ULL, North Texas, UTEP, and WKU
We played average against UTSA, USM, Auburn, UAB, 2nd half of Oklahoma, 3 quarters of the NW State game, and 1st half of ODU.
We played poorly 1st half of Oklahoma, 4th quarter of NW State, and 2nd half of ODU.
11-26-2014 01:30 PM
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Kingkong13 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
We play up or down to competition. It shows in our play calling. We are very conservative in our play calling on offense against lesser teams. We are aggressive against better teams. Ask any ECU fan who remembers Coach Holtz
11-26-2014 02:15 PM
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DowdyPirate Online
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
Yes, when he was here. We would score quick a couple times, then we would play not to lose. One time against App State we were up 21-0 with like 7 minutes left in the first quarter. I think we won 28-21 or 28-24 something like that.
11-26-2014 02:35 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
During the ODU and NWST games, we were up 10 at half and then sat on the ball. Not smart football. If you are on a roll ride it until its over. Its so hard for a team to be agressive then passive then back to aggressive. We should be 9-2 going into the Rice game with a ton of confidence, but instead we have gnashing of teeth. BTW, I am not taking anything away from ODU. They played their butts off and deserved the win 100% so dis NWST.
11-26-2014 02:42 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 02:15 PM)Kingkong13 Wrote:  We play up or down to competition. It shows in our play calling. We are very conservative in our play calling on offense against lesser teams. We are aggressive against better teams. Ask any ECU fan who remembers Coach Holtz

I haven't really noticed a difference in play-calling from game to game.

We have been held under 300 yards twice:

Oklahoma (245)
UTSA (278)

We were held under 400 3 times:

Auburn (321)
Old Dominion (326)
North Texas (358)

Under 500 4 times:

NW State (413)
UAB (428)
UTEP (443)
USM (453)

Under 600 twice:

WKU (507)
ULL (533)

This seems to indicate that we get fewer yards on the better defenses and more yards on the bad defenses.

I think UTEP's defense is better than what we got on them.
I think ODU's defense is worse than we got on them.
The others seem to make sense to me.
11-26-2014 02:48 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 02:42 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  During the ODU and NWST games, we were up 10 at half and then sat on the ball. Not smart football. If you are on a roll ride it until its over. Its so hard for a team to be agressive then passive then back to aggressive. We should be 9-2 going into the Rice game with a ton of confidence, but instead we have gnashing of teeth. BTW, I am not taking anything away from ODU. They played their butts off and deserved the win 100% so dis NWST.

I don't think we sat on the ball against ODU. We ran 9 pass plays and 7 run plays. The problem was 2 drops, an interception, and a pass interference on 3rd down that wasn't called.

I can't remember NW State 2nd half... lol.
11-26-2014 02:55 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.
11-26-2014 02:58 PM
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olliebaba Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
I really think la tech lost to odu because your players took them lightly. I'm just glad that we eked out a win against them. I like the QB, he will play after graduation somewhere and he should.

I further have to add that if Heinicke had Marshalls OLine they'd be much better.
11-26-2014 03:11 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 03:11 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  I really think la tech lost to odu because your players took them lightly. I'm just glad that we eked out a win against them. I like the QB, he will play after graduation somewhere and he should.

I further have to add that if Heinicke had Marshalls OLine they'd be much better.

If Tech had Marshalls line we would be unbeatable. Thats where we hurt the most. A lot of us feared the let down and Heinicke provided.
11-26-2014 03:12 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 02:58 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.

USM? In that game, we scored 3 points in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd half.
UAB was 24 in the 1st and 16 in the 2nd... about the same. (and Dixon didn't play the 2nd half)
WKU was 31 in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd... about the same.
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2014 03:15 PM by T_Won1.)
11-26-2014 03:14 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 03:12 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:11 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  I really think la tech lost to odu because your players took them lightly. I'm just glad that we eked out a win against them. I like the QB, he will play after graduation somewhere and he should.

I further have to add that if Heinicke had Marshalls OLine they'd be much better.

If Tech had Marshalls line we would be unbeatable. Thats where we hurt the most. A lot of us feared the let down and Heinicke provided.

Yes! I think not being able to run the ball is our main problem. Dixon is a stud, but he rarely has a hole to run through.
11-26-2014 03:17 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
ODU was a strange game.

In the first half Tech had the ball for 20 minutes, got close to 300 yards of offense and lead 24-14. (very much what everyone expected).

Then the 2nd half was the complete opposite. Tech only had the ball for only 6 minutes, had 40 yards of offense and didn't score. ODU won 10-0 to tie the game and send it to OT. And then won 7-3 in OT.

Tale of 2 halves.
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2014 03:31 PM by T_Won1.)
11-26-2014 03:30 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 03:14 PM)T_Won1 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 02:58 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.

USM? In that game, we scored 3 points in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd half.
UAB was 24 in the 1st and 16 in the 2nd... about the same. (and Dixon didn't play the 2nd half)
WKU was 31 in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd... about the same.

The play calling is all up the the middle up the middle, deep threat pass, up the middle.
11-26-2014 03:33 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 03:33 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:14 PM)T_Won1 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 02:58 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.

USM? In that game, we scored 3 points in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd half.
UAB was 24 in the 1st and 16 in the 2nd... about the same. (and Dixon didn't play the 2nd half)
WKU was 31 in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd... about the same.

The play calling is all up the the middle up the middle, deep threat pass, up the middle.


Hmmm. I'm just not seeing that. Most of season has been about starting slow on offense and then pouring it on in the 2nd half. I think at one point we led the nation in scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.
11-26-2014 03:51 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 03:51 PM)T_Won1 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:33 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:14 PM)T_Won1 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 02:58 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.

USM? In that game, we scored 3 points in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd half.
UAB was 24 in the 1st and 16 in the 2nd... about the same. (and Dixon didn't play the 2nd half)
WKU was 31 in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd... about the same.

The play calling is all up the the middle up the middle, deep threat pass, up the middle.


Hmmm. I'm just not seeing that. Most of season has been about starting slow on offense and then pouring it on in the 2nd half. I think at one point we led the nation in scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.

that was for a bit, but it didn't happen in the ODU game. We are just plain inconsistant at this point.
11-26-2014 04:23 PM
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T_Won1 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 04:23 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:51 PM)T_Won1 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:33 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 03:14 PM)T_Won1 Wrote:  
(11-26-2014 02:58 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.

USM? In that game, we scored 3 points in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd half.
UAB was 24 in the 1st and 16 in the 2nd... about the same. (and Dixon didn't play the 2nd half)
WKU was 31 in the 1st half and 28 in the 2nd... about the same.

The play calling is all up the the middle up the middle, deep threat pass, up the middle.


Hmmm. I'm just not seeing that. Most of season has been about starting slow on offense and then pouring it on in the 2nd half. I think at one point we led the nation in scoring margin in the 3rd quarter.

that was for a bit, but it didn't happen in the ODU game. We are just plain inconsistant at this point.

Agree. ODU reversed it on us. It's usually the other way around... we start slow and finish strong. This time we started strong and finished slow. They started slow and finished strong. It was an aberration considering this is game 11.

NW State scored 20 of their 30 points in the last 8 minutes of the game due to 3 Tech turnovers on our side of the field.... not play-calling, just stupid mistakes... (dropped punt, fumble, forced a throw into coverage).
11-26-2014 04:31 PM
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pilot172000 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
I know and understand what you are saying, but as I sat behind the team against NWST. There was no heart there. nothing. We play up and down to our competition. I blame playcalling you blame something else. We lost 2 games that were perceived gimmes and it sucks. By the committee's deifinition of quality losses, we would be top 25 and have a shot just like Marshall but we don't. It sucks.
11-26-2014 04:48 PM
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Hambone10 Online
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
(11-26-2014 02:58 PM)pilot172000 Wrote:  I watched the UAB, USM, and WKU last night. We get conservative once we get ahead.

So do we, and we have one of the lower variances.

We also lost to the same ODU team that you did, which would imply that ODU is streaky... but look at THEIR numbers.

There's something more to it than this. Thanks for the opinions anyway. SHould be a great game!!
11-26-2014 06:04 PM
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Kingkong13 Offline
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RE: Question for La Tech fans
Feel free to tell us what you think it is.
11-26-2014 06:40 PM
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