(11-26-2014 07:59 PM)AntiG Wrote: (11-26-2014 12:39 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote: That will never happen. The Big Ten wants to get in the south. Schools like UNC and Duke will never align themselves with the SEC because of academics.
This.
If all teams in the B12 and ACC were available, the B1G would be after Texas, Oklahoma, UNC, Duke, Florida State, UVA and GTech with Texas being the primary target.
Oklahoma's academics are lower than those of Nebraska (who currently is the tail dragger in the Big 10). Florida State's standing is even worse when considering more than the worst rating service. I don't see it ever. The only way the Big 10 takes Oklahoma is if there is no breakup of the ACC and they need them to land Texas or Kansas, or both along with Rice.
The gist of this fantasy is that that (a) the move is to 20 schools for the Big 10 and SEC. And, (b) all of the Big 12 and ACC are available. Throw conference dynamics into the mix and culture and you are more likely to see something like this emerge:
The Big 10 takes Duke to get North Carolina, Virginia, and Syracuse (non AAU but close enough to get back in with some effort), one of Boston College and Pitt, and because the lacrosse playing ACC beltway publics are in with the research triangle and Syracuse, Notre Dame white knuckles it and applies to the Big 10. Besides where else can they go?
The SEC adds Virginia Tech, N.C. State (for the markets), Clemson and Florida State (Clemson pays their own way but that's it, F.S.U. adds to the bottom line, but both schools fit the SEC demographic better than any schools outside of Texas and Oklahoma). Georgia Tech decides to renew old ties with the SEC and are taken for the most part to keep the South solid and to add to academics. The question then is do we take Louisville, Miami, Baylor, or West Virginia to round out to 20? Louisville makes the most money athletically, Miami has the best academics, West Virginia is strong monetarily and gives another presence near the beltway, and Baylor brings good academics and a breadth of men's and women's sports while adding more presence in Texas which might be needed because.........
If the Big 10 and SEC move to 20 the PAC will as well:
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. (no longer religiously based) and Texas Tech all move to the new PAC 20 and get to break into the two eastern most divisions of the PAC and most importantly continue to play one another which is what Texas and OU want most outside of keeping the Big 12.
Big 10 becomes this:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Boston College/Pitt, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue,
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
The SEC becomes this:
Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas A&M,
Kentucky, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, West Virginia/Louisville
Out are most likely Pittsburgh/B.C. loser for the Big 10 slot, Baylor, Wake Forest, Miami, and the West Virginia/Louisville loser for the SEC slot.
It would boil down the field by 5 more which would not be popular, leave some worthy schools out, but it would yield 3 nicely balanced conferences geographically, culturally, and perhaps even more so competitively in most sports.
For the Connecticut's, Cincinnati's, Boise's, E.C.U.'s, South Florida's, Central Florida's and B.Y.U.'s it would be catastrophic.
I find it ironic that the subject was sponsored by an E.C.U. fan as Big 12 expansion would likely create a scenario that would no longer lend itself to speculation for consolidation beyond a P5. And given time the three P5 conferences with 14 schools might like the niche markets and ease of scheduling that 16 would give them. Then those listed as locked out above would be the viable candidates to get to 16 for some of these conferences.
BTW the PAC would now look like this:
Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Southern California
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Colorado, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Utah
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Notes: IMO this is the only kind of scenario that could take and place enough schools to dissolve both the ACC & Big 12 conferences. Other than that it would not be the most profitable model. The most profitable and equitable model would be for the parsing of the ACC and the building of a stronger Big 12 out of its members. In that model the Big 10 might take Duke and Syracuse, the SEC Virginia and North Carolina, and the Big 12 would expand to 16 out of the rest: Clemson, N.C. State, Louisville, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech. But even then that's not enough to effectively dissolve the ACC. The Big 12 would have to lose Texas Tech and T.C.U. to the PAC and add Pittsburgh and Miami to that list to get it done. That would be too many moving parts to be practical and the PAC might not want just Texas Tech and T.C.U..