Assuming that all of the top six teams win out (may not be a valid assumption, but just play along), Miss State will be bumped in the final rankings by either Ohio State or Baylor, depending upon which of those teams is the more dominate in their last game.

I think Ohio State will bump them. I don't think Baylor has much of a shot of bumping them.

I think TCU has a shot at #4 IF they end up as sole winner of the Big 12 by beating UT and BU dropping their finale to KSU

As long as they don't win ugly at Ole Miss, they will be in. OSU will need to blow out Wisconsin in the title game to have a prayer. TCU has no chance after the KU game. Baylor has an outside shot if MSU and OSU look really ugly. Otherwise, MSU will get the rematch on a neutral field, that's all there is to it.

As much as I'd like a 2nd SEC team I dont think its too likely even if MSU wins out because the committee has said they'll reward conference championships and it's unlikely MSU will be in Atlanta this year.

In many ways, MSU is similar to TCU especially with their only losses being by less than a TD on the road to Top 5 teams at the time of the game but if TCU wins out and is Big 12 Champ that would probably be the tie breaker over a MSU team that doesn't win a title. To me that also makes TCU more worthy than BU/OSU because both have losses to unranked teams with at least 5 losses themselves.

Based on all the calls for conference champs only, IMO a second team from a conference will have to have a resume so overwhelming that they can't be left out - otherwise, the default is going to be for conference champs.

(11-24-2014 03:23 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  As much as I'd like a 2nd SEC team I dont think its too likely even if MSU wins out because the committee has said they'll reward conference championships and it's unlikely MSU will be in Atlanta this year.

In many ways, MSU is similar to TCU especially with their only losses being by less than a TD on the road to Top 5 teams at the time of the game but if TCU wins out and is Big 12 Champ that would probably be the tie breaker over a MSU team that doesn't win a title. To me that also makes TCU more worthy than BU/OSU because both have losses to unranked teams with at least 5 losses themselves.

The problem with your logic is that that's assuming that there is a tie with Miss St and TCU. I think a lot of folks wouldn't say that there is a tie between the 2- that Miss St is ahead of TCU. Frankly after seeing how little head to head matters to the committee, thinking that conference champs are going to matter that much more is foolish.

(11-24-2014 03:31 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Based on all the calls for conference champs only, IMO a second team from a conference will have to have a resume so overwhelming that they can't be left out - otherwise, the default is going to be for conference champs.

I don't think a lot of committee members give a rats ass about any of the calls for conference champs only.

MSU's problem is their schedule.

Assume Ohio State and Mississippi State both win out. MSU will have wins over LSU, TAMU, Auburn, and Ole Miss. That's very respectable - 2 ranked teams and 2 others that are getting votes. But is that really better than Ohio State's wins over 3 ranked teams (Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Minnesota), plus Cincinnati who is getting votes?

Those two resumes of wins are about equal, so in that case you have to look at the rest of the schedule: MSU's games against Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, UT-Martin, and Vanderbilt is 5 awful games against teams worse than anyone on Ohio State's schedule other than Kent State. You should have to play a real schedule to get in the playoff with 1 loss, and MSU only plays 7 real games this year.

MSU played an awful OOC schedule and then played the 2 worst SEC East teams - Kentucky and Vanderbilt. OSU has a weaker divisional schedule, but they also played Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, and @Navy (which isn't great, but is worlds better than Vandy). You can knock OSU's division all you want, but the worst team in the division (Indiana) still beat the team that's winning the SEC East.

(11-24-2014 03:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2014 03:31 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Based on all the calls for conference champs only, IMO a second team from a conference will have to have a resume so overwhelming that they can't be left out - otherwise, the default is going to be for conference champs.

I don't think a lot of committee members give a rats ass about any of the calls for conference champs only.

I don't know if anyone on this board knows what the members are thinking :)

(11-24-2014 03:36 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  MSU's problem is their schedule.

Assume Ohio State and Mississippi State both win out. MSU will have wins over LSU, TAMU, Auburn, and Ole Miss. That's very respectable - 2 ranked teams and 2 others that are getting votes. But is that really better than Ohio State's wins over 3 ranked teams (Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Minnesota), plus Cincinnati who is getting votes?

Those two resumes of wins are about equal, so in that case you have to look at the rest of the schedule: MSU's games against Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, UT-Martin, and Vanderbilt is 5 awful games against teams worse than anyone on Ohio State's schedule other than Kent State. You should have to play a real schedule to get in the playoff with 1 loss, and MSU only plays 7 real games this year.

MSU played an awful OOC schedule and then played the 2 worst SEC East teams - Kentucky and Vanderbilt. OSU has a weaker divisional schedule, but they also played Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, and @Navy (which isn't great, but is worlds better than Vandy). You can knock OSU's division all you want, but the worst team in the division (Indiana) still beat the team that's winning the SEC East.

Mississippi St could have 3 ranked wins- LSU/A&M winner will be ranked and Arkansas will be ranked if they win.

The thing that Mississippi St does not have is an albatross known as Va Tech. That is huge.

I think the chances of the rankings looking exactly as they are 2 weeks from now is pretty low....

That said, Miss State just has to beat a bludgeoned Ole Miss team. I think they can do that....

That will leave them in good position for any upsets taking place...they may have the safest road to the playoff

(11-24-2014 04:05 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  I think the chances of the rankings looking exactly as they are 2 weeks from now is pretty low....

That said, Miss State just has to beat a bludgeoned Ole Miss team. I think they can do that....

That will leave them in good position for any upsets taking place...they may have the safest road to the playoff

that I agree with.
FSU- Florida, Ga Tech
Alabama- Auburn, Missouri/Georgia
Oregon- Oregon St, UCLA
TCU- Texas
Baylor- Kansas St
Ohio St- Michigan, Wisconsin

none of those are gimme's with the exception really of Ohio st/Michigan- and with a rivalry game you just NEVER know.

(11-24-2014 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2014 03:36 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  MSU's problem is their schedule.

Assume Ohio State and Mississippi State both win out. MSU will have wins over LSU, TAMU, Auburn, and Ole Miss. That's very respectable - 2 ranked teams and 2 others that are getting votes. But is that really better than Ohio State's wins over 3 ranked teams (Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Minnesota), plus Cincinnati who is getting votes?

Those two resumes of wins are about equal, so in that case you have to look at the rest of the schedule: MSU's games against Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, UT-Martin, and Vanderbilt is 5 awful games against teams worse than anyone on Ohio State's schedule other than Kent State. You should have to play a real schedule to get in the playoff with 1 loss, and MSU only plays 7 real games this year.

MSU played an awful OOC schedule and then played the 2 worst SEC East teams - Kentucky and Vanderbilt. OSU has a weaker divisional schedule, but they also played Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, and @Navy (which isn't great, but is worlds better than Vandy). You can knock OSU's division all you want, but the worst team in the division (Indiana) still beat the team that's winning the SEC East.

Mississippi St could have 3 ranked wins- LSU/A&M winner will be ranked and Arkansas will be ranked if they win.

The thing that Mississippi St does not have is an albatross known as Va Tech. That is huge.

I would also say that the SEC wins are worth more than the Big 10 wins. IMO. The SEC is just tougher.

(11-24-2014 04:05 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  That said, Miss State just has to beat a bludgeoned Ole Miss team. I think they can do that....

Maybe - maybe not. They won't have their D#@%m cowbell noise to help this time and their wins over Kentucky and Arkansas were extremely close. Playing Ole Miss in Oxford is no picnic (ask Alabama). On the other hand, Ole Miss has key players injured. Personally, I wish they could both lose.

The OSU loss to VA TECH should cost them any shot. It is no different that the saying if FSU has a loss, they would be out. MSU should be in if they win out.

Mississippi State vs Ohio State: Comes down to quality of the loss if both have 1. Alabama in a relatively close game that finished with an incomplete comeback at Tuscaloosa vs Virginia Tech in a relatively close game that got uglier that was played in Columbus Ohio. Gee this one is so danged difficult Question Socratic, I guess I would say loosing to a Top 1 or 2 school who is a traditional power in a relatively close game that featured a decent comeback effort that fell short beats a two touchdown loss at home to a school that will likely fail to make a bowl.

Mississippi State vs T.C.U.: Again the loss issue could come up and T.C.U.'s loss was to a top 5 or 6 school in a last second comeback with some dubious calls. I give no advantage there. T.C.U. has crushed everyone else except for one very ugly win in Morgantown. Gee they look about the same there considering the quality of competition difference for the two. You know I bet that's why the committee has Mississippi State at the 4th position right now which leaves the last regular season game for both. If Mississippi State handles Ole Miss (2 scores or better in a game that has not remained relatively close throughout) and T.C.U. does the same to Texas then it comes down to quality of opponent. Ole Miss versus Texas? Hmm. Ole Miss crushed the Horns last year in Austin, are ranked a good bit ahead of them this year, so gee I think if they both have decent wins the last week of the season the committee finds it very hard to reverse their places.

Now if Miss State eeks out a win in Oxford and T.C.U. cruises there is a justification for a switch.

Mississippi State versus Baylor. Hmm? Quality of loss again perhaps? Alabama vs a West Virginia team that has now lost 4 games including one to Alabama. Gee Alex I'll take the Bulldogs for 2000 please!

And finally this question assumes Florida State will beat Florida and Georgia Tech. That may be the two toughest games they'll play all season, at least since Louisville.

It assumes Alabama won't stumble against Auburn or likely Georgia. I agree the way Auburn is finishing things don't look as likely for the Tigers to pull an upset again this year, but Georgia? Georgia is the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the country. Which team shows up? The Bulldogs that whimpered against Florida and South Carolina, or the Bulldogs who chewed up Auburn and Arkansas? If I were Alabama I would hate to face them. If they win it doesn't really add to their resume, but Georgia has proven capable of embarrassing some pretty good teams and if that happens to Alabama they might not only miss the final 4 but also may not get a really great consolation bowl which would then go to the Dawgs.

It assumes Oregon can beat U.C.L.A. again. That should happen but might not. Arizona State is still a question mark too.

In fact I would say that Mississippi State with a couple of upsets could wind back up in the 2nd or 1st place in the committee voting with a decent win this weekend and it is not impossible that the Big 12 could get two should F.S.U. stumble and Alabama get upset in one of their two remaining games.

Personally I think the Wisconsin defense and ground game take the Buckeyes and end the Big 10 speculation. But we'll see.

And to be perfectly objective the possibility of an Ole Miss upset win and a Georgia victory in the CCG could eliminate all SEC schools.

So the grossly overused, and somewhat irritating hackneyed expression remains unfortunately appropriate, "There is a lot of football remaining to be played."

Personally I think it would be a hoot if F.S.U. lost twice, Georgia thumped Bama, Ole Miss rose up one final time, Bucky cracks Brutus, and the Sun Devils win out.

ESPN would pass the proverbial brick if their final four market demographics belonged to Fort Worth, Waco, Arizona, and either East Lansing or a Georgia team with two losses. I bet that would make them push for 4 champs in a big danged hurry. Talk about being hoisted on your own petard!

(11-24-2014 05:10 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  

(11-24-2014 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2014 03:36 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  MSU's problem is their schedule.

Assume Ohio State and Mississippi State both win out. MSU will have wins over LSU, TAMU, Auburn, and Ole Miss. That's very respectable - 2 ranked teams and 2 others that are getting votes. But is that really better than Ohio State's wins over 3 ranked teams (Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Minnesota), plus Cincinnati who is getting votes?

Those two resumes of wins are about equal, so in that case you have to look at the rest of the schedule: MSU's games against Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, UT-Martin, and Vanderbilt is 5 awful games against teams worse than anyone on Ohio State's schedule other than Kent State. You should have to play a real schedule to get in the playoff with 1 loss, and MSU only plays 7 real games this year.

MSU played an awful OOC schedule and then played the 2 worst SEC East teams - Kentucky and Vanderbilt. OSU has a weaker divisional schedule, but they also played Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, and @Navy (which isn't great, but is worlds better than Vandy). You can knock OSU's division all you want, but the worst team in the division (Indiana) still beat the team that's winning the SEC East.

Mississippi St could have 3 ranked wins- LSU/A&M winner will be ranked and Arkansas will be ranked if they win.

The thing that Mississippi St does not have is an albatross known as Va Tech. That is huge.

I would also say that the SEC wins are worth more than the Big 10 wins. IMO. The SEC is just tougher.

MSU did not play against "the SEC." They played 6 games against the SEC West, plus Kentucky and Vanderbilt. They also played 3 teams that have losing records in FCS/G5 conferences and South Alabama, a mid-tier Sun Belt team.

OSU did not play against "the Big 10." They played 6 games against the Big 10 East, plus Illinois, #25 Minnesota, and #16 Wisconsin. They also played Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Navy, and an awful Kent State team.

I don't have a dog in this fight. I dislike both schools. But OSU had a stronger schedule almost any way you slice it.

JR,

I'd also throw in that TCU has the edge in OOC as well. That 30-7 win over Minnesota is looking really good right now. It's much better than the teams BU and MSU played in OOC and as a common opponent with tOSU, TCU beat them a lot worse than the Bucks did.

How will the committee look at the OSU loss
1) Like the OSU/B1G haters on the board and just say - bad lass at home to an average VT team
2) Like the OSU/B1G fans on the board and note: 1) All-College QB was injured 10 days before season started, vast improvement since then, and it was the game after Navy