(11-26-2014 11:48 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(11-26-2014 11:39 AM)illiniowl Wrote:  But I think the committee clearly wants to send a message, especially in its first year, that schedule strength is huge, and a more important factor than naked W-L record. I definitely think they want to incentivize teams to schedule better going forward.

You don't send a message re. scheduling strength by demoting a G5 school which is not nationally prominent. You do it by very visibly sending a message to a nationally prominent program (e.g., like what the Committee did to LSU a couple years ago in baseball).

Except that they are sending that exactly that message to Marshall right now. That's the plain-as-day meaning of ranking their 11-0 behind Boise's 9-2. I mean, I don't think they sat down and said, "Let's teach Marshall a lesson," specifically, but I think they generally want to really emphasize schedule strength. And yes, a lot of "schedule strength" is out of one's control when it comes down to it - FSU probably thought it was in good shape with Notre Dame and Florida as OOC games but those teams didn't hold up their end of the bargain very well and the ACC is lukewarm this year also - but that's the way it goes. And the part of scheduling a G5 team like Marshall can control is how many P5 OOC teams they schedule, and who. Boise scheduled an SEC team (which turned out to be very good until they lost Treadwell), a quasi-P5 school (BYU), a former BCS school (UConn - turned out to be bad this year), and even their "cupcake" was one of the top Sun Belt teams (ULaLa). When Louisville reneged on Marshall, Marshall had nothing else in their schedule to fall back on, and that is their own fault - a fault I do believe the committee wants to "punish" in general.

Maybe in 2 weeks Marshall will indeed get the G5 access slot, because there's lots of data points still to be collected. As I said, Boise could lose or maybe have a fluke/undeserving win and/or Marshall could look super-impressive, and more data will come in on the teams each has beaten (and in the case of Boise, lost to), making those results look more or less impressive. So it's a highly theoretical debate/bet at this point, but FWIW I would bet that, ceteris paribus, Boise stays ahead of Marshall.

(11-26-2014 12:43 PM)mrbig Wrote:  You know what would be fun? The committee having to choose between:
Memphis (9-3 AAC champion that didn't play ECU or UCF)
Rice (9-4 CUSA champion)
SDSU (8-5 MWC champion)
Or the MAC or Sun Belt champions

It would probably go to Memphis (or whomever won the AAC), but it certainly would be with great excitement. Rice could make life much easier on the committee by just winning the next couple games...

Perhaps surprisingly to some, I'd sure like to see that scenario play out, Big. First things first. Beat LaTech.

(11-26-2014 11:48 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Again, I bet that if Marshall does go undefeated they will get the G5 bowl nod by the Committee.

For what it's worth ... this is from Jerry Palm at cbssports.com

Given the teams' remaining schedules, there is no reason to think Marshall can do anything to pass Boise State in the minds of the committee. With that in mind, I have changed the bowl projections to put the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl and take Marshall out of the host bowls.

(11-26-2014 04:29 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(11-26-2014 11:48 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Again, I bet that if Marshall does go undefeated they will get the G5 bowl nod by the Committee.

For what it's worth ... this is from Jerry Palm at cbssports.com

Given the teams' remaining schedules, there is no reason to think Marshall can do anything to pass Boise State in the minds of the committee. With that in mind, I have changed the bowl projections to put the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl and take Marshall out of the host bowls.

I agree this is the most rational outcome. Yet that's operating under the assumption that the CFP committee is a rational-minded entity and not prone to consistent inconsistency in its logic.

If a 2-loss Boise gets in over Marshall it would be a shame. They lost to Air Force. Being undefeated has to count for something, and when you're deciding between two G5 teams, one with 0 losses and one with 2, how can you not pick the undefeated team? Because they're separated by only 1 spot in rankings, I can easily see Marshall jumping over Boise if they win their two remaining games including a blow out their C-USA title game opponent, who could be the highest rated team they beat all season.

I wonder if money has anything to do with it.

(11-26-2014 04:37 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(11-26-2014 04:29 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  

(11-26-2014 11:48 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Again, I bet that if Marshall does go undefeated they will get the G5 bowl nod by the Committee.

For what it's worth ... this is from Jerry Palm at cbssports.com

Given the teams' remaining schedules, there is no reason to think Marshall can do anything to pass Boise State in the minds of the committee. With that in mind, I have changed the bowl projections to put the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl and take Marshall out of the host bowls.

I agree this is the most rational outcome. Yet that's operating under the assumption that the CFP committee is a rational-minded entity and not prone to consistent inconsistency in its logic.

Another factor to consider is that one Committee member was ill this week and missed the meeting and voting. I still think the Committee is taking a wait and see on Marshall, forcing them to run the table at 13-0 before moving them ahead of Boise St.. Again, it's not as if the Committee thinks much separates the two teams at this point, as they are right next to each other in the rankings. For all we know, that separation could amount to the one missing voter this past week.

The Committee has shown that it evolves in it's thinking as the season progresses and the body of work increases. Funny how this was the first week that any G5 school made their ranking, and they jumped all the way up to #22 and #23, with neither team winning particularly impressively this past week.

(11-24-2014 01:33 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  In terms of updated projections for this week, CBS (Jerry Palm) has us in ABQ (Dec. 20 vs. MWC, whom he projects to be Utah State). It looks like his underlying assumptions are that Marshall will win out and be chosen for a top-6 bowl, with La. Tech beating Rice (they are favored, after all) and going to the HOD bowl.

(11-26-2014 04:29 PM)Orange County Owl Wrote:  For what it's worth ... this is from Jerry Palm at cbssports.com

Given the teams' remaining schedules, there is no reason to think Marshall can do anything to pass Boise State in the minds of the committee. With that in mind, I have changed the bowl projections to put the Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl and take Marshall out of the host bowls.

And the domino effect on the rest of his projections now has Marshall taking the HOD bowl, La. Tech going to ABQ, and Rice heading to Hawaii. Again, I think he is assuming a La. Tech win over Rice. We'll see!

ETA: At ESPN.com, both projections have Boise in the Fiesta; one has Marshall in the HOD and Rice in Hawaii, and the other has Rice in the HOD and Marshall in the Bahamas - which must mean he is projecting Rice to beat Marshall.

(11-26-2014 05:24 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  And the domino effect on the rest of his projections now has Marshall taking the HOD bowl, La. Tech going to ABQ, and Rice heading to Hawaii. Again, I think he is assuming a La. Tech win over Rice. We'll see!

Saw this on the C-USA Board, and it makes sense. If Marshall is not the G5 Access Bowl representative, they might be the best possible at-large replacement for the Cactus Bowl. It sure makes more sense than his current projection of Temple as the PAC-12 opponent.

If Marshall got shopped to the Cactus Bowl, the dominoes could line back up again starting with the Rice-La Tech winner in Dallas.

Does Marshall have a reason to prefer Cactus to HOD?

To answer my own question, the answer is yes. Payout is 4x.

(11-26-2014 05:00 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I still think the Committee is taking a wait and see on Marshall, forcing them to run the table at 13-0 before moving them ahead of Boise St..

We have two weeks left. This weekend, Marshall faces a much weaker team than Boise, so I think that Boise stays ahead even if Marshall wins in a blow out and Boise wins close. In the conference championship, both teams will face relatively weak teams. If Marshall wins in a blow out and Boise squeaks by, then Marshall might move ahead. Any other scenario where both teams win out, Boise stays in front.

(11-26-2014 08:18 PM)temchugh Wrote:  

(11-26-2014 05:00 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  I still think the Committee is taking a wait and see on Marshall, forcing them to run the table at 13-0 before moving them ahead of Boise St..

We have two weeks left. This weekend, Marshall faces a much weaker team than Boise, so I think that Boise stays ahead even if Marshall wins in a blow out and Boise wins close. In the conference championship, both teams will face relatively weak teams. If Marshall wins in a blow out and Boise squeaks by, then Marshall might move ahead. Any other scenario where both teams win out, Boise stays in front.

At this point, given that Boise and Marshall are ranked next to each other (and, remember, the difference could be simply the Committee member who did not vote this week), I really don't think SoS is going to be the gating factor. IMO (and, yes, it remains to be seen whether I am right or wrong on this), the Committee is waiting to see if Marshall can run the table and go 13 - 0 with the conference championship. If they do, I believe strongly that they will leapfrog Boise in the final rankings. No way one of the only two (or, perhaps, the ONLY) FBS team to go undefeated is going to be denied a major bowl in favor of a 2-loss G5 team. Sorry, not withstanding their current rankings (which is essentially the same), I just cannot see the Committee doing that.