(11-23-2014 01:04 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-23-2014 01:00 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  http://www.montanakaimin.com/sports/arti...0f31a.html

Quotes Jeff Bourne as head of selection committee:

"Teams are chosen by their record, national coaches and media polls, and strength of schedule, Bourne said."

I don't count that as official in the least but to be as emphatic as you are that polls are basically disregarded is naive at best.

The field isn't going to look like this weeks polls.

Way to move the goal posts, dude. You can't just change your argument from "They don't set the field according to the polls" to "The field isn't going to look like the polls" like you're still within the same thesis statement.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/special-pleading

The point is that several people/ADs from several schools serving on the committee have mentioned in interviews over the years that national polls are one of many tools that the committee uses to discern the teams that make the field and their seeding. GPI is another tool. And you always have the eye test where subjectivity comes into play. This year, it seems fairly obvious who the teams will be. A lot of bubble teams REALLY blew it. The hard part is the last four in, 'cause none of them are really worthy.

(11-23-2014 12:52 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-23-2014 12:38 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(11-23-2014 12:10 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  My main concern that prevents me from any hope of a seed: if I were 13th ranked Montana, coming fresh off my convincing win over 12th ranked Montana State, I lose my ever-loving poop if 17th ranked JMU leapfrogs me after a cupcake win for a seed.

Agree. But really Montana has no business being ranked that high. Their ranking is a by product of starting the season highly ranked. Perhaps the selection committee will recognize that. They were able to weather their losses without dropping too far since they started as preseason #5 in the Sports Network Poll. We started #31 and despite one less loss than Montana, have only climbed to #17. And though there are those on this board who discount the preseason rankings in terms of accuracy (which I agree with), had we started the season in the top 10, we might be positioned right now for a seed. Starting out unranked and stumbling out of the block gives you very little room for error in securing a seed.

-Pre season polls are worthless as tits on a bull.
-Polls are still semi worthless. They don't set the field according to the polls.
-Does' matter what JMU would have started out ranked. JMU could have been pre season #1 and wouldn't be getting a seed. UNH and VU are a ahead of JMU in the CAA standings. JMU could have beat UD and still wouldn't get a seed because VU would still be ahead based on same record but head to head. And there is virtually zero chance they are going to seed 3 teams from 1 conference.

First of all, there is no 8th seed that has a measurably better resume than JMU. I'm not saying we deserve a seed. I think the top 7 seeds are pretty certain. That last seed is a crapshoot though. Chatty, SeLA, Fordham...those dogs don't hunt. We are not in the conversation. Had we not had such a mountain to climb, we would at least be in the conversation.

We will likely be ranked 14th in the next poll that comes out. Is it unreasonable to think we could have finished 6 slots higher had we started the season ranked 10th as opposed to ARV@ 31st? I don't think so. We started our 7 game winning streak when we were around #45 in votes- too much ground to make up. A team that finishes 8th in a major poll is going to be considered for a seed. They may use gerrymandering logic to not select them, but there name will come up.

We will always disagree on the importance of positioning at the beginning of the season. To think otherwise puts far too much credence in the knowledge and diligence of the playoff committee. No matter how inaccurate those polls may be, those lazy bastards on the selection committee are aware of them and they play a role- despite public proclamations to the contrary. I could put together a far more credible group for seeding and selecting from just the posters over on AGS.

As for your point about 3 from one conference, while historically accurate, it's based on a the committees warped sense of PC fairness and a short sample size. There have been several years when 3 CAA teams would/should have been in the top 8 seeds but those were in years when only 4 seeds were chosen. At some point, the committee will face a scenario with 3 power conference teams will force their hand.

The good news is, for the first time in years, the road does not seem to phase us. So no matter what curve ball gets thrown at us tomorrow, I think we can compete with just about anyone in this years playoffs.

we won't be a seed.

not that we aren't deserving of one due to our play on the field and who else is likely to be considered (Fordham, SE La, Chatty)

the reason we have no shot is simple. they will not take a 3rd team from the CAA over a conference champion in another league. No way, no how.

my stab at a bracket:

the last two teams are downright impossible to predict. no one deserves them. Will be interesting to see what the committee does. And of course, those last two can significantly effect the first round matchups due to geography

South Dakota St at Montana State.....(1) North Dakota State
San Diego at Sam Houston State...... (8) SE Louisiana

Northern Iowa at Montana...... (5) Eastern Washington
NC A&T at Eastern Kentucky..... (4) Illinois State

Morgan State at JMU ...... (6) Villanova
Bethune Cook at Chattanooga..... (3) Jacksonville St

Richmond at Liberty ..... (7) Coastal Carolina
Sacred Heart at Fordham ..... (2) New Hampshire


Comments:

last two are really hard. But I think they will lean toward conference champions and NOT putting in teams that go 7-5 or 4-4 in their conference. For that reason, whether right or wrong, deserved or not, I think they take 2 at large teams from the MEAC that finished 9-3 and shared the MEAC regular season title.... NC A&T and BCC.

For the last seed, again, many worthy on the field, but hard to separate. So I think they default to conference champions. And it will be between Chatty and SE Louisiana. I think they put SE Louisiana in because they played in a tougher conference. But could very well be Chatty and they could easily change out in my bracket prediction and not effect any where else.

will be interesting to see what they do with North Dakota St, South Dakota St, the two montana teams and Northern Iowa. If they say geography is that important, you almost HAVE to pair these teams around each other and together in round one. Which from a competition standpoint is inherently unfair as that would be one brutal bracket. But again, if they do based on geography, that's almost a lock to turnout that way. if we see them all spread out, then the geography thing is kind of BS anymore.

teams I left out and why:

indiana st : i don't see the committee dipping five deep in any conference for a 7-5 team, especially one that lost to a losing team on the final weekend
william & mary: same as Ind State. No 7-5, 5th placed teams
Step F Austin: 8-4 overall but won against a D2 and played 3 transitional fcs teams losing to 1 of them (Abl chris). not good enough SOS
Bryant: 8-3. probably a lock if they beat Wagner yesterday. Not taking 3rd placed team from NEC
idaho St: 8-4, but beat two D2 teams, so really 6-4. Best win was over 7-5 Cal Poly. didn't beat any of the other BSC playoff teams.
Bucknell: 8-3, like Bryant, win at home over colgate yesterday probably would put them in. can't lose 2 of last 3, one of them at home to 4-7 Colgate

I would be surprised if they have Richmond at Liberty again in a rematch. Seems 50/50 on people's predictions with JMU at Liberty or JMU hosting someone else. Don't see but one Richmond at Liberty prediction.

A seed seems only about a 10-20% chance after looking at it closer. Seems about 50/50 whether Coastal will get a seed. They only have one loss. They literally played nobody.

I think Chatt will edge us out for a seed although we are playing really well and they also played no good fcs schools. Argument can be made for us here.

There is a chance that JMU, UR, and Liberty all host next weekend. You know UR put in a good bid with their cash. If we don't get a seed, keeping fingers crossed that if we win next weekend, our second round game will be in the east so we can all go to it. Don't ship us to NDSU again or way out west. One of the VA teams may be in a western bracket.

there is no mandate against ooc first round matchups. that is just a myth.

either RU or us are going to Liberty, IMO.

if they send Morgan st to Richmond and us to Liberty, that will be the biggest f'n joke the FCS has ever seen.

Aren't the rules in the selections that the committee picks 24 teams, then picks the 8 seeds, and then matches up the remaining 16 on who is closer to who, as long as you are not in the same conference? Is that just a myth or how it works?

Looks like we are in an area with Liberty, Morgan St. and UR. The next closest are in FL, NY or Kentucky and Louisiana.

If this geography rule is real, JMU or UR will play Liberty and the other Morgan St. Morgan is in Baltimore.

Things go out of order if Chatt or Coastal don't get seeds.

Coastal does not deserve a seed. They are a 2nd place team in their crap conference. Liberty has more of a case for a seed then them.
With that being said, they will receive a seed because they went from a likely #2 seed to a #7 seed with only one loss. Just like the media polls, you must lose several games consecutively to fall far enough down the ladder.
The NCAA has no credibility if they put a 2nd place Big South team as a seed.

(11-23-2014 02:10 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(11-23-2014 12:52 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(11-23-2014 12:38 AM)olddawg Wrote:  

(11-23-2014 12:10 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  My main concern that prevents me from any hope of a seed: if I were 13th ranked Montana, coming fresh off my convincing win over 12th ranked Montana State, I lose my ever-loving poop if 17th ranked JMU leapfrogs me after a cupcake win for a seed.

Agree. But really Montana has no business being ranked that high. Their ranking is a by product of starting the season highly ranked. Perhaps the selection committee will recognize that. They were able to weather their losses without dropping too far since they started as preseason #5 in the Sports Network Poll. We started #31 and despite one less loss than Montana, have only climbed to #17. And though there are those on this board who discount the preseason rankings in terms of accuracy (which I agree with), had we started the season in the top 10, we might be positioned right now for a seed. Starting out unranked and stumbling out of the block gives you very little room for error in securing a seed.

-Pre season polls are worthless as tits on a bull.
-Polls are still semi worthless. They don't set the field according to the polls.
-Does' matter what JMU would have started out ranked. JMU could have been pre season #1 and wouldn't be getting a seed. UNH and VU are a ahead of JMU in the CAA standings. JMU could have beat UD and still wouldn't get a seed because VU would still be ahead based on same record but head to head. And there is virtually zero chance they are going to seed 3 teams from 1 conference.

First of all, there is no 8th seed that has a measurably better resume than JMU. I'm not saying we deserve a seed. I think the top 7 seeds are pretty certain. That last seed is a crapshoot though. Chatty, SeLA, Fordham...those dogs don't hunt. We are not in the conversation. Had we not had such a mountain to climb, we would at least be in the conversation.

We will likely be ranked 14th in the next poll that comes out. Is it unreasonable to think we could have finished 6 slots higher had we started the season ranked 10th as opposed to ARV@ 31st? I don't think so. We started our 7 game winning streak when we were around #45 in votes- too much ground to make up. A team that finishes 8th in a major poll is going to be considered for a seed. They may use gerrymandering logic to not select them, but there name will come up.

We will always disagree on the importance of positioning at the beginning of the season. To think otherwise puts far too much credence in the knowledge and diligence of the playoff committee. No matter how inaccurate those polls may be, those lazy bastards on the selection committee are aware of them and they play a role- despite public proclamations to the contrary. I could put together a far more credible group for seeding and selecting from just the posters over on AGS.

As for your point about 3 from one conference, while historically accurate, it's based on a the committees warped sense of PC fairness and a short sample size. There have been several years when 3 CAA teams would/should have been in the top 8 seeds but those were in years when only 4 seeds were chosen. At some point, the committee will face a scenario with 3 power conference teams will force their hand.

The good news is, for the first time in years, the road does not seem to phase us. So no matter what curve ball gets thrown at us tomorrow, I think we can compete with just about anyone in this years playoffs.

Taking the season as a whole (giving Sept = weight to Nov, the 1st 5 games = weight to the last 5, there's no way JMU has the resume to be a #8 seed.

I can't come up with a 24th team. The 1st 23 are pretty cut and dry. Then who?
-ID St (8-4/6-2). 6-4 vs Div I. Played 2 Div II and 2 I-A, 0-2 vs playoff teams.
-CSU (8-4/3-2). 6-4 vs Div I. Played 2 Div II and 2 I-A, 1-1 vs playoff teams.
-Lamar (8-4/5-3). 6-4 vs Div I. Played 2 Div II. 0-2 vs playoff teams.
-Samford (7-4/5-2). 6-4 vs Div I. 0-1 vs playoff teams.
-Ind St (7-5/4-4). Played 2 I-A, beat 1 (Ball St). 1-2 vs playoff teams.
-Bryant (8-3/4-2) 0-2 vs playoff teams.
-Bucknell (8-3/4-2. 1-1 vs playoff teams.
-BCU (9-3/6-2). 8-3 vs Div I. Played 2 I-A, beat 1 (FIU). 0-0 vs playoff teams.
-NC A&T (9-3/6-2). 8-3 vs Div I. 1-1 vs playoff teams.

(11-23-2014 06:42 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  my stab at a bracket:

the last two teams are downright impossible to predict. no one deserves them. Will be interesting to see what the committee does. And of course, those last two can significantly effect the first round matchups due to geography

South Dakota St at Montana State.....(1) North Dakota State
San Diego at Sam Houston State...... (8) SE Louisiana

Northern Iowa at Montana...... (5) Eastern Washington
NC A&T at Eastern Kentucky..... (4) Illinois State

Morgan State at JMU ...... (6) Villanova
Bethune Cook at Chattanooga..... (3) Jacksonville St

Richmond at Liberty ..... (7) Coastal Carolina
Sacred Heart at Fordham ..... (2) New Hampshire


Comments:

last two are really hard. But I think they will lean toward conference champions and NOT putting in teams that go 7-5 or 4-4 in their conference. For that reason, whether right or wrong, deserved or not, I think they take 2 at large teams from the MEAC that finished 9-3 and shared the MEAC regular season title.... NC A&T and BCC.

For the last seed, again, many worthy on the field, but hard to separate. So I think they default to conference champions. And it will be between Chatty and SE Louisiana. I think they put SE Louisiana in because they played in a tougher conference. But could very well be Chatty and they could easily change out in my bracket prediction and not effect any where else.

will be interesting to see what they do with North Dakota St, South Dakota St, the two montana teams and Northern Iowa. If they say geography is that important, you almost HAVE to pair these teams around each other and together in round one. Which from a competition standpoint is inherently unfair as that would be one brutal bracket. But again, if they do based on geography, that's almost a lock to turnout that way. if we see them all spread out, then the geography thing is kind of BS anymore.

teams I left out and why:

indiana st : i don't see the committee dipping five deep in any conference for a 7-5 team, especially one that lost to a losing team on the final weekend
william & mary: same as Ind State. No 7-5, 5th placed teams
Step F Austin: 8-4 overall but won against a D2 and played 3 transitional fcs teams losing to 1 of them (Abl chris). not good enough SOS
Bryant: 8-3. probably a lock if they beat Wagner yesterday. Not taking 3rd placed team from NEC
idaho St: 8-4, but beat two D2 teams, so really 6-4. Best win was over 7-5 Cal Poly. didn't beat any of the other BSC playoff teams.
Bucknell: 8-3, like Bryant, win at home over colgate yesterday probably would put them in. can't lose 2 of last 3, one of them at home to 4-7 Colgate

MVC already has 4 including Indiana St. Even the ESPN guys said they scratching their heads on Indiana St.