RE: Marshall "very close" to top 25 committee ranking
It would be pretty funny if CSU is ranked ahead of Marshall, but Marshall gets the bid because Boise St. wins the MWC. If that's the case, there's absolutely no motivation to schedule P5 opponents ever again. But, I think Boise St. has it sealed, as long as they win the MWC. It's pretty simple:
Looking at CFCC (College Football Computer Composite) rankings:
BOISE STATE
Overall: 8-2
Top-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-1
51-75: 2-0
76-100: 2-0
101+: 3-0
Good/Decent Wins: #26 Colorado St., #52 BYU, #53 Nevada, #58 ULL
Losses: #5 Ole Miss, #46 Air Force
Remaining Schedule: #91 Wyoming, #39 Utah St., MW Championship (likely #53 Nevada)
MARSHALL
Overall: 10-0
Top-25: N/A
26-50: N/A
51-75: 1-0
76-100: 2-0
101+: 7-0
Good/Decent Wins: #71 Rice, #86 MTSU(?)
Losses: None
Remaining Schedule: #92 UAB, #88 W. Kentucky, C-USA Championship (likely #50 LA Tech)
Boise St. has played SIX games against competition noticeably better than Marshall's BEST opponent - three of those on the road. Marshall's two decent(ish?) opponents were at home. Boise St. should finish the season with two more wins over top-50 competition. Even #91 Wyoming is on par with Marshall's better opponents. The point is, the committee is actually very reasonable in its rankings (do a similar analysis as above with the CFP-4 and you will see that they are getting it right, even with TCU still over Baylor - which will change, btw, if Baylor beats #14 Kansas St. down the stretch and wins the Big 12 title - but that's another discussion).
Boise St. has gone undefeated against the teams on its schedule ranked #71+. The selection committee will actually REWARD Boise St. for playing and losing to Ole Miss. And Marshall has nothing even close to the Bronco's wins over CSU, BYU, Nevada, and even UL-Lafayette. Marshall's only hope is that LA Tech finishes in the top-50 and is ranked ahead of Air Force. In that instance, Marshall would have the argument that they did (finally) beat a team ranked ahead of a team to whom Boise St. lost.
Memphis, on the other hand, looks like this:
MEMPHIS
Overall: 7-3
Top-25: 0-2
26-50: 1-0
51-75: N/A
76-100: 2-1
101+: 4-0
Good/Decent Wins: #47 Cincinnati, #80 Temple, #86 MTSU (?)
Losses: #5 Ole Miss, #11 UCLA, #77 Houston
Remaining Schedule: #103 South Florida, #117 Connecticut
The close losses to #5 Ole Miss and #11 UCLA will help the Tigers. However, the best win over #47 Cincinnati will not be enough to overcome the loss to #77 Houston or to block out an undefeated Marshall - who would have also wins over a top-50 LA Tech and #71 Rice. The American is hurt by the fact that Memphis avoids both #57 UCF and #62 ECU on the schedule (and vice-versa)...and has no conference championship game.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2014 02:02 PM by YNot.)
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