From an Overall Perspective...
Three more conference AQs have been clinched, bringing the total to 5. The final six will have to wait until the final week. Two conferences could finish with as many as 5 teams tied for first place, so there are a lot of must-win games next week.

From a JMU Perspective...
Squish. The sound of a Duke Dawg paw print making contact with a Spider. The Dukes just dominated on Saturday. When JMU was on offense, Vad Lee made sure opportunities were not wasted. When Richmond was on offense, Taylor Reynolds made sure that ended quickly. When the Dukes lost 2 defensive players to ejections on back-to-back plays, the rest of the corps stepped up – shutting out Richmond in the 2nd half. And from what I heard on TV, it sounded like our fanbase outshone the Richmond fans. Squish squish squish.

The Dukes should now be solidly in the playoffs. For about 4 hours on Saturday, we were actually in the hunt for a Seed, but that probably ended when Villanova won their game on Saturday. Now our attention – once we take care of Elon – to who we play against in the playoffs. Hopefully, everything goes our way and we get the home playoff game we have all been wanting. (And if the bracket takes us to UNH later on, I will get to see our Dukes win a playoff game in person!)


By the Numbers (105 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/26 – 86
11/2 – 69
11/9 – 50
11/16 – 41

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/26 – 60
11/2 – 53
11/9 – 42
11/16 – 33

Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/26 – 6
11/2 – 10
11/9 – 19
11/16 – 21


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky –
Big South –
CAA –
MEAC –
MVC –
NEC – Sacred Heart
OVC – Jacksonville State
Patriot – Fordham
Pioneer – San Diego
SoCon – Chattanooga
Southland –

CAA (7 Teams Alive)
UNH – 9 wins
Villanova – 9 wins
JMU – 8 wins – cannot win AQ
Richmond – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
W&M – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Delaware (0) – cannot win AQ
Albany (0) – cannot win AQ


Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
EWU – 8 wins
Montana State – 7 wins
Cal Poly (0) – cannot win AQ
Northern Arizona (0)
Montana (0)
Idaho State

Big South (3 Teams Alive)
Coastal Carolina – 11 wins
Liberty (0)
Charleston Southern (0) – cannot win AQ

MEAC (5 Teams Alive)
NC A&T – 8 wins
Bethune-Cookman – 7 wins
SC State (0)
Morgan State
NC Central

MVC (6 Teams Alive)
ND State – 10 wins
Illinois State – 9 wins
No. Iowa – 7 wins
Youngstown State – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Indiana State – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
SD State (0) – cannot win AQ

NEC (2 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Bryant – 7 wins

OVC (2 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 8 wins – clinched AQ
EKU – 9 wins

Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Fordham – 10 Wins – clinched AQ
Bucknell – 8 wins

Pioneer League (2 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Dayton – 7 wins

SoCon (1 Team Alive)
Chatty – 8 wins – clinched AQ

Southland (5 Teams Alive)
SE Louisiana – 8 wins
Sam Houston State – 7 wins
Central Ark. (0)
Stephen F. Austin (0) – cannot win AQ
NW State (0) – cannot win AQ


Must Win Out to reach 7 wins:
Delaware
Albany
Northern Arizona
Montana
Liberty
Charleston Southern
SC State
SD State
Central Ark.
NW State
Stephen F. Austin


Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Florida A&M (too dumb for postseason)
StFU (too dumb for postseason)
Abilene Christian (transition to D1)
Incarnate Word (transition to D1)
URI
Elon
Towson
Stony Brook
Maine
UC Davis
Northern Colorado
Weber State
Sac State
North Dakota
Southern Utah
Portland State
Gardner-Webb
Presbyterian
Monmouth
Howard
Delaware State
Hampton
Norfolk State
South Dakota
W. Illinois
Missouri State
So. Illinois
Cent. Conn. State
Duquesne
Robert Morris
Wagner
Tenn. State
Tenn.-Martin
Murray State
Tenn. Tech
SE Missouri State
Austin Peay
E. Illinois
Georgetown
Lafayette
Colgate
Lehigh
Holy Cross
Valparaiso
Davidson
Butler
Morehead State
Marist
Stetson
Jacksonville – 8 wins – withdrew from playoffs
Campbell
Drake
VMI
Mercer
Citadel
Furman
W. Carolina
Samford
Wofford
Nichols State
Houston Baptist
Lamar
McNeese State

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Coastal Carolina
Harvard

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
URI
Columbia
Savannah State
Nicholls State


Conference Analysis

CAA – So it comes down to UNH and Villanova for the AQ. UNH has the edge – if they win at rival Maine next week, they get the AQ. If Villanova loses at Delaware, UNH gets the AQ. However, if UNH loses and Villanova wins, they will both be tied atop the CAA. Tie-breaker time! They did not play each other, so Tie-breaker #1 is out. Tie-breaker #2 is record against common opponents. They each would be 5-1 against common opponents. So on to Tie-breaker #3: Who lost to the better team in the CAA? (I have always hated that...you would think a team would be punished for losing to the worse team – but this system does the opposite. If one of these teams had lost by 70 points to URI instead, it would actually work to their benefit rather than an overtime loss to Richmond. But I digress...) Villanova lost to Richmond, UNH would have lost to Maine. So if Richmond finishes above Maine in the CAA, UNH would get the AQ. If Maine finishes above Richmond, Villanova gets the AQ. Of course, right now Maine and Richmond are tied. So the whole thing could go to Tie-breaker #4: A conference call (and vote) by administrators from every CAA team (except for UNH and Villanova). All of this work to determine the AQ between two teams who will make it regardless. Both of them are also likely to receive Seeds, so I guess this would just determine which one is Seeded higher. The CAA will likely have somewhere between 3-5 playoff teams, so many teams still have life. As mentioned before, JMU will finish in 3rd place and is a virtual lock to get an At-Large. Richmond and W&M play next week – one of them will get their 8th win and probably the 4th playoff spot. The loser will finish at 7-5. If there is a 5th playoff spot for the CAA, it would have to come from between that Richmond/W&M loser, Delaware (with a win), and Albany (also with a win). Albany's conference record is just too ugly, so they're likely out. Neither of these remaining teams would have a real advantage over each other, so it could basically be a coin flip.

Games to watch next week:
Elon @ JMU – GO DUKES!!!!
Villanova @ Delaware – Villanova losing could open up a slight path to a JMU Seed
UNH @ Maine – A UNH win should lock up the #1 Seed
Richmond @ W&M – The winner likely gets an At-Large, the loser will be sweating

Big Sky – Even though they had a Bye week this past weekend, EWU had a good day. Northern Arizona, the only Big Sky team to beat them, lost to a weak North Dakota. So now if EWU beats a bad Portland State next week, they will get the AQ. If they somehow lose, the AQ will go to Montana State if they win. If both EWU and Montana State lose, however, it could get messy with as many as 5 teams tied for 1st. (Obviously, I will not go through all of those possibilities this week to figure out who would get the AQ since it will all depend on who is involved.) This scenario could also cause the Big Sky to lose any chance of a Seed. On the outside looking in is Cal Poly. They cannot win the AQ, but can make it to 7 wins. They have some good wins, but one awful, awful loss (this past weekend to last-place UC Davis). With so many other teams to choose from from the Big Sky, they'll have a very tough time getting in.

Games to watch next week:
EWU @ Portland State (Friday) – EWU clinches AQ with a win
SUU @ NAU – NAU must win to stay alive
Weber State @ Idaho State – Idaho St. is out with a loss or with wins by EWU or Montana State
Montana State @ Montana – Montana is out with a loss
Cal Poly @ San Diego – Cal Poly must win to have a chance at an At-Large

Big South – First, let's start with the team still alive that cannot win the AQ: Charleston Southern. They could actually be a team to get an At-Large with 7 wins – but they have to beat I-A Georgia to do it. (They were unfortunate to schedule two lower division opponents and two I-A opponents.) As for the AQ, it comes down to the game between Liberty and Coastal – the winner gets the AQ. Coastal should be favored in this, but weird things always seem to happen in the last week in the Big South. If Liberty loses, they're out. If Coastal loses, they will take an At-Large.

Games to watch next week:
Liberty @ Coastal – Winner gets AQ
Charleston South @ Georgia – Chuck South must win

MEAC – Two of the three teams entering the weekend lost – leaving only NC A&T left at the top. The losses by Bethune-Cookman and SC State will make it difficult for the MEAC to get more than one team in the playoffs. (Which is fine – they only deserve one.) NC A&T gets the AQ with a win next week. If they lose, there will be a tie for the AQ from anywhere from 2-5 teams. For BCU, a win might get them in the At-Large conversation, but their case is not very strong. They do have a I-A win (a weak FIU), but their other wins aren't impressive. They also now have a bad loss (this past week at Hampton).

Games to watch next week:
Delaware State @ Morgan State – Morgan State must win to stay alive
Norfolk State @ SC State – SC State must win to stay alive
NC A&T @ NC Central – NC A&T gets the AQ with a win; NC Central must win to stay alive
BCU @ FAMU – BCU really needs a win

MVC – There were no real upsets in the MVC, so the likelihood of the conference claiming a high number of playoff teams has been solidified. The conference now has 5 teams with 7 or more wins – a feat only matched by the CAA. So, just like the CAA, I see them getting anywhere from 3-5 teams in...with the odds favoring the higher end. Let's deal with the AQ first, even though all 3 teams involved have almost certainly claimed playoff spots already. NDSU and Ill. State are tied right now, but didn't play each other. For both of them, their one loss was to Northern Iowa – who is one game back. If NDSU wins and Ill. State loses, NDSU gets the AQ. If Ill. State wins and NDSU loses, Ill. State gets the AQ. Simple. However, if they both win, we go through all of the tie-breakers and use the GPI computer rankings that will be released on Wednesday, November 19th. (According to MVC's website.) That should lead to NDSU getting the AQ – they were just ahead of Ill. State this past week and they beat a slightly better team than Ill. State this past weekend. If both teams lose, we will need to look at the Northern Iowa result. Northern Iowa would then get the AQ with a win while Ill. State would get the AQ with a Northern Iowa loss. But again, all 3 of these teams will be in the playoffs no matter what. All of that could help determine Seeds, though. So now we need to look for a 4th and possibly 5th team. This comes down to Indiana State, Youngstown State, and SD State. SD State is clearly behind the other two, so they really only have a chance if they win (which is a must) and a loss by at least one of the other two teams.. Indiana State has a I-A win (Ball State) and just beat Youngstown this past weekend, so they should have spot #4 locked up with a win over a bad Western Illinois. In order for Youngstown to win this weekend (to get win #8), they will have to beat NDSU. Obviously, that will be an impressive win – which will almost certainly earn them an At-Large.

Games to watch next week:
SIU @ Ill. State – Ill. State playing for a Seed
Ind. State @ W. Illinois – An Ind. State win helps their At-Large chances
South Dakota @ SD State – SD needs a win (and possibly some help) to get an At-Large
Youngstown State @ NDSU – Youngstown want a win to bolster their At-Large chances; NDSU wants a high Seed
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa – Northern Iowa wants a win for a possible Seed

NEC – Sacred Heart beat Bryant this past weekend, so they have now clinched the AQ. Wagner can only get to 6 wins so they needed to win the AQ – so they're now completely eliminated. Bryant now really needs a win next weekend (against Wagner) to be considered for an At-Large. They are not a bad team (they have wins over 2 CAA teams) and would finish at 8-2, so they could make it in with one of the last bids. But they need that 8th win.

Games to watch next week:
Wagner @ Bryant – Bryant needs to win to help At-Large chances

OVC – Jacksonville State was able to hold off Eastern Illinois this past weekend, so they have won the AQ and EIU is gone. Jacksonville State is now hoping for one of the Seeds. If they can win next week, they'll get one. EKU won their game to give them 9 wins, one of which was over I-A Miami of Ohio. They now travel to the University of Florida next week to make some money before finding out who they'll play as an At-Large.

Games to watch next week:
EKU @ Florida – If EKU pulls the upset, they could get a Seed
Jacksonville State @ SE Missouri St. – Jacksonville State playing for a Seed

Patriot – Fordham had already cliched the AQ, so now they're working on a Seed. They were able to get their #1 QB back after recovering from appendicitis, but he wasn't really needed as the running game rolled over Georgetown. They are now at 10-1 with a final game next week at Army (which they have a decent chance of winning). For Bucknell, they have to hope other teams lose to give them a chance at an At-Large. They do have a September win over Sacred Heart, but the rest of their results are not very convincing. (Take out Sacred Heart and the combined record of the teams they have beaten so far is 20-52. All of them will finish below .500.)

Games to watch next week:
Fordham @ Army – A Fordham win will get them a higher Seed
Colgate @ Bucknell – Bucknell needs to win to improve At-Large chances

Pioneer – An interesting week for the Pioneer. Conference leader Jacksonville announced that they broke the rules by providing some athletic financial aid (a no-no in the non-scholarship Pioneer), so they withdrew from playoff contention. They would have received the AQ due to their win this past weekend, but now the AQ goes to San Diego. Dayton now has 7 wins, but it probably won't matter – the Pioneer is too weak to have any At-Large considerations.

Games to watch next week:
Campbell @ Dayton – Dayton wants to win for a very slim At-Large chance
Cal Poly @ San Diego – Cal Poly must win to have a chance at an At-Large

SoCon – Chattanooga had already clinched the AQ, so now they're working towards a Seed. They beat non-conference Tenn Tech this past weekend and now will finish with Furman. If they win, they have a chance for a Seed. If they lose, that chance is gone.

Game to watch next week:
Chatty @ Furman – A Chatty win could give them a Seed

Southland – Three teams are left alive for the AQ, but it could get complicated. If SE Louisiana wins and Sam Houston loses, SE Louisiana gets the AQ. If Sam Houston wins and SE Louisiana loses, Sam Houston gets the AQ. If they both win, we have to watch the NW State/SF Austin game. If NW State wins, then SE Louisiana gets the AQ. If SFA wins, Sam Houston gets the AQ. Got it? But we're not done, because if SE Louisiana and Sam Houston both lose (an unlikely scenario), then we have a three-way tie – adding Central Arkansas to the mix. In order to figure out the winner of the AQ, it looks like we would need to to know the order in the standings of the rest of the teams. If we get to this scenario, it could hurt the Southland's chances of getting multiple teams in to the playoffs. SE Louisiana should be a lock to get in no matter what. If Central Arkansas beats Sam Houston, both would finish with 7 wins and would probably need the AQ to get in. (Central Arkansas' schedule is nothing special and Sam Houston lost to a non-D1 team.) The other two teams still alive – NW State and SFA – each must win to get to 7 wins. As mentioned before, they play each other next week, so only one will make it.

Games to watch next week:
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls State (Thursday)– SE Louisiana wins AQ with win and Sam Houston loss
Central Arkansas @ Sam Houston – a win is crucial for both teams
NW State @ SF Austin – each team must win to reach 7 wins; this game could decide AQ tie-breaker

great write-up!

Great analysis. I look forward to this update every week.

Awesome. Thanks Saxkow!

Nice work. great information. thanks.

Eastern Washington clinched the Big Sky last night.
SE Louisiana won on Thursday, so they're currently watching the Sam Houston/Central Arkansas game. SE Louisiana gets the AQ with a Central Arkansas win. (It is currently tied in the 1st.)

Any shot at a JMU seed if we win by 50 and Delaware beats Nova?

No

(11-22-2014 02:38 PM)JMUska Wrote:  Any shot at a JMU seed if we win by 50 and Delaware beats Nova?

A very outside shot. You would have the argument that we are the hotter team. While we lost to Villanova, that was a while ago - which they usually take into account.

They even just mentioned this on the broadcast.

(11-22-2014 02:38 PM)JMUska Wrote:  Any shot at a JMU seed if we win by 50 and Delaware beats Nova?

We will see if Fordham and Chatt lose.

7 in a row and a couple dominating is hard to ignore.

Yeah I felt like a psychic there.

If Fordham loses and Villanova loses, I'd think we'd at least be in the conversation. There are always surprises with the brackets. (Pass the purple Kool-Aid.)

(11-22-2014 02:42 PM)JMUska Wrote:  Yeah I felt like a psychic there.

If Fordham loses and Villanova loses, I'd think we'd at least be in the conversation. There are always surprises with the brackets. (Pass the purple Kool-Aid.)

Agreed. Does our stadium and attendance help too? 3 from a conference is hard though.

Oh, we're in the conversation now - no doubt. How long and how seriously they talk about us is the big question.

(11-22-2014 02:46 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  Oh, we're in the conversation now - no doubt. How long and how seriously they talk about us is the big question.

Not many hotter than us. Don't think we would be seeded ahead of Villanova though because of the head to head.

Definitely in the conversation.

The CAA won't get three seeds. We aren't the top conference.

If we get a seed, we get a bye next week. Would host in 2 weeks. Agree it is questionable at best that we get one.

Yeah, for us to get a seed we'd have to pass Villanova which would require the committee to prioritize recent performance. But a Nova loss makes a seed for the Dukes a possibility, even if it's a small one.

Even the top conference (MVC) won't get 3 Seeds. But Villanova losing 2 of their last 4 could give us their place...

Well, Nova won anyway. Looking forward to making the trip to Bridgeforth next weekend. Keeping the momentum going might be the best thing for our team anyway, rather than taking a week off.

Yup...

In other news, Wagner just beat Bryant. That should knock out Bryant from At-Large consideration, which could cause a re-shuffling of match-ups.