Bowl Analysis - Week 12
There are 12 Access/Semfinal bowl slots. The current projection on those slots from CBS are 4 SEC, 2 Big 12, 2 Big 10, 1 Pac 12, 2 ACC, 1 CUSA. The change from last week is +1 from SEC and -1 to Pac 12. . This is important as it affects which bowls will be open.
The # of slots listed below are only primary slots.
SEC (4 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 13 total) - There are 8 in, with Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee all having very favorable schedules. Arkansas and Kentucky are the other two, and I think one of them gets in. The Indy Bowl being open will likely require 4 SEC teams making the access/semi slots. I detail the scenarios below.
Prediction: 13 slots, 12 teams, Independence open.
Big 12 (2 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 7 total) - Six teams are in, and only Oklahoma State is left on the bubble. Their schedule is not favorable.
Prediction: 7 slots, 6 teams, Cactus open
Big 10 (2 Access/Semi slots, 8 additional, 10 total) - Nine teams are in, with Michigan, Northwestern, and Illinois on the bubble. One will make it.
Prediction: 10 slots, 10 teams
Pac 12 (1 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 7 total) - Six are in, with Stanford, Washington, Oregon St, and Cal close. All but one will make it.
Prediction: 7 slots, 9 teams
ACC (2 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 11 total) - The messiest bowl picture is getting clearer. Eight teams are in, with Va Tech and UNC in the best shape to get eligible, and Pitt and UVA on the outside looking in.
Prediction: 11 slots, 10 teams, with Notre Dame making 11
AAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - The loss of the access slot leaves the AAC searching for an extra bowl for it's final bowl eligible team. The rule around the secondary Indy bowl pick seems sketchy, but for now I bet that's where they go.
Prediction: 5 slots, 6 teams
CUSA (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - Four are in. MT, UAB, and WKU all have the schedule to get their final needed victory, but who knows. I think they all get there, but won't be surprised if one slips up.
Prediction: 6 slots, 7 teams
MWC (0 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 6 total) - Five teams are in. SDSU is in good shape. Fresno St and Wyoming are alive, but don't think they make it.
Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams
MAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - They have 5 in, with Ohio, Akron, and Buffalo alive. One of those gets in.
Prediction: 5 slots, 6 teams
SBC (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - GaSo, App St, and Idaho are ineligible for either FBS transition or academic reasons. Texas State needs one more win to join the other 3 eligible teams.
Prediction: 3 slots, 4 teams
Independent (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - Army, Navy, and BYU all have agreements with bowls, while Notre Dame has the ACC deal. ND is out of the access picture in the latest CBS projection, meaning they will take an ACC slot. Army will not fill theirs.
Prediction: 3 slots, 3 teams
Summary
SEC: Independence open (CUSA/AAC? backup)
Big 12: Cactus open
Big 10: 1 extra team
Pac 12: 2 extra teams
ACC: with ND, they will come out without an extra slot/team
AAC: 1 extra team
CUSA: 1 extra team
MWC: none
MAC: 1 extra team
SBC: 1 extra team
Indy: Armed Forces open, Notre Dame uses ACC slot
Yesterday was not a good day for those of us looking for that extra bowl slot. The Indy bowl opening is hanging on by a thread, the Pac 12 and Big 10 did no favors with upsets, and the SEC is going to have plenty of teams.
In summary, Indy, Cactus, and Armed Forces are the only three open slots, with B1G/P12/P12/AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC being the extra teams. Indy takes an AAC/CUSA depending on who is available (La Tech may be our only shot), Cactus likely takes a B1G, and P12 rounds out Armed Forces, case closed.
For the Independence Bowl to be open, we need:
- 4 SEC teams in access/semis
and
- 1 of ARK/UK/TENN/FLA/USC to not get bowl eligible
OR
- 3 SEC teams in access/semis
and
- 2 of ARK/UK/TENN/FLA/USC to not get bowl eligible
This is not as easy as it looks, given the favorable schedules for TENN/FLA/USC
ARK (5-5) vs Ole Miss, @ Missouri
UK (5-6) @Louisville
TENN (5-5) vs Missouri, @ Vandy
FLA (5-4) vs EKU, @ Fla State
USC (5-5) vs USA, @ Clemson
That said, I think we're going to have to hope for 4 SEC teams in access/semi bowls. And hell, at the end of the day it sure isn't a sure thing that we get 7 eligible teams, and have the Indy bowl select one of our teams over an AAC team.
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