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CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
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arkstfan Away
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CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
When the CFP and access bowl particulars were announced, one thing I believed as absolute truth was that the selection committee would favor an undefeated G5 champ over a one loss or two loss G5 champ in picking a team for the access bowl.

Having seen how the committee is ranking teams I don't think that is going to be the case.

Undefeated Florida State playing a pretty mediocre schedule has fallen from #2 to #3.

TCU with an impressive schedule is #4 while Baylor is #7 the committee cites TCU's strength of schedule and apparently noticed that Baylor's head-to-head win came at Baylor and in the closing moments.

Marshall hasn't cracked their top 25 even though ECU did earlier.

Marshall played three MAC in non-conference. One is awful, the other two look to stagger to 6-6. Their FCS opponent is 0-10.

In conference MTSU, Rice, and their championship game opponent are the only ones they've played who look to be a lock to win more than 6 games. WKU is probably going to be one of the toughest games Marshall has had this year and the 'Toppers can't get to 7 without beating Marshall.

Looking at power ratings, I checked the three I still have bookmarked from the BCS era and they have Boise and Colorado State in striking distance.

How down is the rest of CUSA per the power ratings? Two loss and transitional Georgia Southern is ahead of all of CUSA except La.Tech and Marshall. The same goes for three loss Arkansas State and in two of three it goes for Louisiana. In the Massey Composite of 35 different power ratings, the three Sun Belt out-rank all but Tech and Marshall.

If one of Colorado State or Boise wins out, the committee is very likely going to take the MWC winner over a 13-0 Marshall thus disproving my theory.
11-15-2014 10:23 AM
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chiefsfan Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
Marshall has been trying really hard to run up the score on everyone to try and impress the Committee. I watched the FAU game this year...FAU exposed Marshall for 3 quarters before the Herd finally figured things out. The threw a Touchdown pass with 30 seconds left to make sure they won by 3 scores.
11-15-2014 10:47 AM
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Saint3333 Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
The committee is getting it right.
11-15-2014 02:29 PM
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GSU Eagles Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
Boise is in if they win out.
11-15-2014 02:41 PM
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GeauxUL Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
I'm confused about this whole thread? Why wouldn't our top teams like UL, GS, and state be ranked with the top of the cusa? Regardless, as a conference, they're ranked higher than the SBC. They did great in OOC this year. As far as the access bowl, I believe it's Marshall's to lose..

Edit: and outside of Utah st, the SBC top three teams have beat absolutely no one so I can't hate on what Marshall has done one bit. They're ranked in the top 25, something none of our teams have ever done...
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2014 03:55 PM by GeauxUL.)
11-15-2014 03:38 PM
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Dracorex Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
why so many C-USA related threads?
11-15-2014 05:41 PM
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CoachMaclid Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-15-2014 10:47 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Marshall has been trying really hard to run up the score on everyone to try and impress the Committee. I watched the FAU game this year...FAU exposed Marshall for 3 quarters before the Herd finally figured things out. The threw a Touchdown pass with 30 seconds left to make sure they won by 3 scores.


Here's Marshall's Fourth quarter scoring drives against FAU. No passing TDs, and the late score was a 10 play clock killing drive.

TD 13:55 Devon Johnson 66 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)
Drive info: 3 plays, 94 yds in 1:00

TD 0:51 Devon Johnson 7 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)
Drive info: 10 plays, 62 yds in 5:00


FAU was the only game Marshall hasn't played second team for the last half of the 4th quarter.

-------------

The committee has been pretty clear that quality of wins is the dominant ranking factor. Given that, I'm not certain that the committee will automatically give Marshall the New Years 6 Bowl slot.
11-15-2014 09:53 PM
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-15-2014 05:41 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  why so many C-USA related threads?

Reading is fundamental.

This is not a CUSA thread though the dimmer amongst us can't read and comprehend.

This about selection of the access bowl team and it has been article of faith among MWC and AAC that they are going to own the slot because of schedule strength.

I, like many MAC, Sun Belt and even that other conference fans believed the committee would look at record first then if there were multiple no loss or one loss to sort out then SOS would be the way they were sorted.

The committee voting has made it clear that isn't the case. If you think this about CUSA the point has totally sailed over your head.
11-16-2014 02:12 AM
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arkstfan Away
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-15-2014 09:53 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  
(11-15-2014 10:47 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  Marshall has been trying really hard to run up the score on everyone to try and impress the Committee. I watched the FAU game this year...FAU exposed Marshall for 3 quarters before the Herd finally figured things out. The threw a Touchdown pass with 30 seconds left to make sure they won by 3 scores.


Here's Marshall's Fourth quarter scoring drives against FAU. No passing TDs, and the late score was a 10 play clock killing drive.

TD 13:55 Devon Johnson 66 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)
Drive info: 3 plays, 94 yds in 1:00

TD 0:51 Devon Johnson 7 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)
Drive info: 10 plays, 62 yds in 5:00


FAU was the only game Marshall hasn't played second team for the last half of the 4th quarter.

-------------

The committee has been pretty clear that quality of wins is the dominant ranking factor. Given that, I'm not certain that the committee will automatically give Marshall the New Years 6 Bowl slot.


AND THAT WAS MY POINT.

The assumption many held that they would take an undefeated SBC, MAC, or CUSA over a 2 loss and maybe one loss AAC or MWC is looking to be a bad assumption.

The BCS with one-third weight going to computers (which were not allowed to account for margin of victory) and two-thirds to the human polls were records of non-P5 have historically been more important than strength of schedule, favored running the table in a weaker league.

AD's are going to have to rethink scheduling. Under the BCS system Marshall has a schedule that was nearly perfect (though the four non-conference games have ended up being even weaker than was likely expected when contracted).

If the selection committee holds to what they've shown getting P5 games is more important than we thought (especially home or neutral site) and the upper level teams of G5 leagues really are going to need to start scheduling amongst themselves more than they currently do.
11-16-2014 02:24 AM
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SpeedkingATL Offline
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Post: #10
RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
The Belt has been horrible in OOC games this year. That shapes the perception of the conference and unfortunately you are what your record says you are.
11-16-2014 07:09 AM
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zeebart21 Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-15-2014 05:41 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  why so many C-USA related threads?

UAB still has an athletic program?

Z
11-16-2014 09:48 AM
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trojanbrutha Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-16-2014 02:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2014 05:41 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  why so many C-USA related threads?

Reading is fundamental.

This is not a CUSA thread though the dimmer amongst us can't read and comprehend.

This about selection of the access bowl team and it has been article of faith among MWC and AAC that they are going to own the slot because of schedule strength.

I, like many MAC, Sun Belt and even that other conference fans believed the committee would look at record first then if there were multiple no loss or one loss to sort out then SOS would be the way they were sorted.

The committee voting has made it clear that isn't the case. If you think this about CUSA the point has totally sailed over your head.

It's ok...he's a uab fan...07-coffee3
11-16-2014 10:21 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-16-2014 02:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2014 05:41 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  why so many C-USA related threads?

Reading is fundamental.

This is not a CUSA thread though the dimmer amongst us can't read and comprehend.

This about selection of the access bowl team and it has been article of faith among MWC and AAC that they are going to own the slot because of schedule strength.

I, like many MAC, Sun Belt and even that other conference fans believed the committee would look at record first then if there were multiple no loss or one loss to sort out then SOS would be the way they were sorted.

The committee voting has made it clear that isn't the case. If you think this about CUSA the point has totally sailed over your head.

I expected the same. I thought schools would be awarded on merit but its not looking like the case. The new system is a load of ****. There may be no way for a B1G school to make the playoff due to the quality win factor.

You would expect some rethinking of schedules but I don't think we'll see a lot of it. Ohio I know is not changing its philosophy and is looking to sign 1 for 1's with Texas State and New Mexico State while signing SEC cream puff Tennessee in the non-conference schedule.

The question is how will it impact realignment at the G5 level? Will it force that coast 2 coast conference? I just feel like its going to be hard to game the new system for a while with so few data points.
11-16-2014 11:30 AM
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arkstfan Away
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-16-2014 11:30 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(11-16-2014 02:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2014 05:41 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  why so many C-USA related threads?

Reading is fundamental.

This is not a CUSA thread though the dimmer amongst us can't read and comprehend.

This about selection of the access bowl team and it has been article of faith among MWC and AAC that they are going to own the slot because of schedule strength.

I, like many MAC, Sun Belt and even that other conference fans believed the committee would look at record first then if there were multiple no loss or one loss to sort out then SOS would be the way they were sorted.

The committee voting has made it clear that isn't the case. If you think this about CUSA the point has totally sailed over your head.

I expected the same. I thought schools would be awarded on merit but its not looking like the case. The new system is a load of ****. There may be no way for a B1G school to make the playoff due to the quality win factor.

You would expect some rethinking of schedules but I don't think we'll see a lot of it. Ohio I know is not changing its philosophy and is looking to sign 1 for 1's with Texas State and New Mexico State while signing SEC cream puff Tennessee in the non-conference schedule.

The question is how will it impact realignment at the G5 level? Will it force that coast 2 coast conference? I just feel like its going to be hard to game the new system for a while with so few data points.

Right now if I'm Benson and Steinbrecher I'm calling ESPN and saying "look I've got X, Y, and Z who look to be contenders for access bowl games, we need help putting match-ups together with other contenders."
11-16-2014 12:14 PM
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GeauxUL Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
(11-16-2014 12:14 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-16-2014 11:30 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(11-16-2014 02:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(11-15-2014 05:41 PM)Dracorex Wrote:  why so many C-USA related threads?

Reading is fundamental.

This is not a CUSA thread though the dimmer amongst us can't read and comprehend.

This about selection of the access bowl team and it has been article of faith among MWC and AAC that they are going to own the slot because of schedule strength.

I, like many MAC, Sun Belt and even that other conference fans believed the committee would look at record first then if there were multiple no loss or one loss to sort out then SOS would be the way they were sorted.

The committee voting has made it clear that isn't the case. If you think this about CUSA the point has totally sailed over your head.

I expected the same. I thought schools would be awarded on merit but its not looking like the case. The new system is a load of ****. There may be no way for a B1G school to make the playoff due to the quality win factor.

You would expect some rethinking of schedules but I don't think we'll see a lot of it. Ohio I know is not changing its philosophy and is looking to sign 1 for 1's with Texas State and New Mexico State while signing SEC cream puff Tennessee in the non-conference schedule.

The question is how will it impact realignment at the G5 level? Will it force that coast 2 coast conference? I just feel like its going to be hard to game the new system for a while with so few data points.

Right now if I'm Benson and Steinbrecher I'm calling ESPN and saying "look I've got X, Y, and Z who look to be contenders for access bowl games, we need help putting match-ups together with other contenders."

On average, how far in advance are OOC games scheduled?
11-16-2014 12:19 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
The lesson for the G5 is this....you better schedule some games OOC. Better schedule 2 of them.
11-16-2014 01:04 PM
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ark30inf Offline
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RE: CFP: I might have been wr.. wrrr.... wrong
I think it is pretty silly for the G5 to try to game the system. The system is a committee of people who have nothing to do with the G5 and do not want to see any G5 program infringe on their turf or have access to their bank. The only thing you can expect from the committee is a good long screwing.

I imagine that the main effort of the committee would be to lean toward whatever G5 program will do the least perceived financial harm to whatever bowl gets "stuck" with them.

If Idaho defeats Stanford but has a loss to Oregon and UCF goes undefeated with no big wins then being undefeated will get UCF in. If UCF has one loss to Stanford and Idaho goes undefeated then "strength of schedule" will get UCF in. Either way UCF gets in.

The overall attitude will be much like NIU faced at the Orange Bowl. "We have to have you here, but we don't want to socialize with you, so shut up and take your loss and then GTFO".

Call me cynical, but this is college football and we have zero representation on that committee.
11-16-2014 01:15 PM
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