Folks,
As I did last season, I am starting a Men’s Basketball Computer Ranking Projections Tracking thread. (see: http://csnbbs.com/thread-659416.html) Unlike last season I didn’t have a chance to post the preseason projections as they were rolled out, so here are the preseason projections. Every few weeks or months during the season I’ll revisit this thread to track how the projections actually turn out.
Remember, these websites use computers for their projections based off of statistical data - and as any sports fan knows sometimes the computers don't account for the intangibles that make a team better or worse than expected. Then again, there are those who swear by the computers/stats - and believe at the end of the day the computer will be right.

This year I'm going to track from preseason to end of season are KenPom.com, RPIforecast.com, Sagarin and TeamRankings.com.

Some of the reasons I track these sites is because I like to see how OoC performance affect the conference standings projections and to see how actual results alter the preseason projected standing or placement of individual teams and the conference as a whole.

Again, I will not update this thread daily or weekly, but at certain benchmarks that I'll explain at the time of the update. Also, if you guys would like an update sooner, then ask me and I'll try to accommodate as my time in the real world permits.

So here goes.

Teams are sorted by projected conference standings first, then by the rating/ranking of that site.

First, KenPom.com:

http://kenpom.com/

Second, RPIforecast.com
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 22nd in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html

Third, TeamRankings.com
http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ncaa-ba...rojections

Fourth, Sagarin:

• 108 Georgia State (76.48)
• 158 Louisiana-Lafayette (73.75)
• 190 Ark.-Little Rock (71.38)
• 191 Texas-Arlington (71.38)
• 199 Arkansas State (70.97)
• 250 Louisiana-Monroe (67.93)
• 266 Texas State (67.11)
• 270 Troy (66.90)
• 275 South Alabama (66.62)
• 295 Georgia Southern (64.88)
• 316 Appalachian State (62.78)
  

(11-14-2014 08:15 AM)GaStPanthers Wrote:  Folks,
As I did last season, I am starting a Men’s Basketball Computer Ranking Projections Tracking thread. (see: http://csnbbs.com/thread-659416.html) Unlike last season I didn’t have a chance to post the preseason projections as they were rolled out, so here are the preseason projections. Every few weeks or months during the season I’ll revisit this thread to track how the projections actually turn out.
Remember, these websites use computers for their projections based off of statistical data - and as any sports fan knows sometimes the computers don't account for the intangibles that make a team better or worse than expected. Then again, there are those who swear by the computers/stats - and believe at the end of the day the computer will be right.

This year I'm going to track from preseason to end of season are KenPom.com, RPIforecast.com, Sagarin and TeamRankings.com.

Some of the reasons I track these sites is because I like to see how OoC performance affect the conference standings projections and to see how actual results alter the preseason projected standing or placement of individual teams and the conference as a whole.

Again, I will not update this thread daily or weekly, but at certain benchmarks that I'll explain at the time of the update. Also, if you guys would like an update sooner, then ask me and I'll try to accommodate as my time in the real world permits.

So here goes.

Teams are sorted by projected conference standings first, then by the rating/ranking of that site.

First, KenPom.com:

Code:

Team     Conf. Rec.    Ov. Rec.       Rating
GSU       16-4         24-7           66
UL        14-6         21-10          128
stAte     11-9         16-13          212
UALR      10-10        14-14          235
UTA       10-10        14-16          236
GS        9-11         15-14          263
Troy      9-11         14-15          296
ULM       8-12         14-16          287
TXST      8-12         13-16          290
USA       8-12         13-18          298
App.      6-14          8-21          313

http://kenpom.com/

Second, RPIforecast.com

Code:

Team     Conf. Rec.    Ov. Rec.       Forecasted RPI
GSU       15-5         20-10          98
UL        13-7         16-11          131
UTA       12-8         15-14          160
UALR      12-8         15-12          178
stAte     11-9         16-12          199
ULM       9-11         11-15          211
TXST      9-11         11-15          237
Troy      9-11         11-16          274
USA       8-12         11-18          259
GS        7-13         9-17           283
App.      6-14         8-21           298

RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 22nd in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html

Third, TeamRankings.com

Code:

Team     Conf. Rec.    Ov. Rec.       Rating
GSU       17-3         24-7           ???
UL        14-6         20-10          ???
UALR      12-8         17-12          ???
UTA       12-8         16-13          ???
ULM       9-11         14-15          ???
stAte     9-11         13-16          ???
USA       8-12         12-19          ???
TXST      8-12         13-16          ???
GS        8-11         11-17          ???
Troy      7-13         10-19          ???
App.      6-14         8-21           ???

http://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ncaa-ba...rojections

Fourth, Sagarin:

• 108 Georgia State (76.48)
• 158 Louisiana-Lafayette (73.75)
• 190 Ark.-Little Rock (71.38)
• 191 Texas-Arlington (71.38)
• 199 Arkansas State (70.97)
• 250 Louisiana-Monroe (67.93)
• 266 Texas State (67.11)
• 270 Troy (66.90)
• 275 South Alabama (66.62)
• 295 Georgia Southern (64.88)
• 316 Appalachian State (62.78)
  

It's unanimous! We suck!

It's unanimous! We suck!



I don't think GS will be near as bad as predicted this year. We will have a couple of guys on the court this year that were out last year. I hope the conference, as a whole, can exceed these expectations.

The Cajuns will win at least 22 games. I am fully expecting them to win 25 or more. While we will not look like the team from last year because Elfrid is gone, we have solid replacements for him and are better at every other position, along with having better depth than last year. We may not win the conference, but if we don't, it will be because someone else got significantly better. The Cajuns will be much better in the paint [both scoring and on the boards], and will shoot the 3 better as well.

End of November update:

Kenpom.com:

RPIforecast.com:
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 20th in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html

TeamRankings.com:

Sagarin:

• 109 Georgia State (76.43)
• 164 Georgia Southern (73.23)
• 192 Louisiana-Lafayette (71.21)
• 196 Texas State (70.81)
• 197 South Alabama (70.80)
• 215 Arkansas State (70.13)
• 218 Ark.-Little Rock (70.02)
• 239 Troy (68.24)
• 240 Louisiana-Monroe (68.92)
• 257 Texas-Arlington (68.05)
• 304 Appalachian State (64.56)
  

Conference play starts in about two weeks. Time for an update:

Georgia State strengthens lead on top; UTA rises; Georgia Southern holding steady in the upper half; Arkansas State sinking

Kenpom.com:

RPIforecast.com:
RPIforecast.com projects the Sun Belt to be 18th in RPI. http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SB.html

TeamRankings.com:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/projections/standings/

Sagarin:

• 58 Georgia State (81.23)
• 162 Texas-Arlington (73.75)
• 169 Georgia Southern (73.34)
• 193 Louisiana-Lafayette (71.77)
• 204 Texas State (71.02)
• 228 Louisiana-Monroe (69.95)
• 257 Ark.-Little Rock (68.18)
• 259 Troy (68.12)
• 275 Arkansas State (67.27)
• 277 South Alabama (67.16)
• 281 Appalachian State (67.01)