UC-East Carolina scouting report
Tom Groeschen, tgroeschen@enquirer.com 3:38 p.m. EST November 12, 2014
East Carolina running back Breon Allen carries the ball against Connecticut on Oct. 24.(Photo: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)
When UC runs
It took a while, but UC has found a running game. True freshman Mike Boone has rushed for 325 yards over his last two games. Boone and Rod Moore each topped 100 yards in UC's last game, a 38-14 win over Tulane (Oct. 31). It was the first time UC had two 100-plus rushers in one game since 2003.
When UC passes
Gunner Kiel (ribs/back) appears healthy enough to start at QB. UC coach Tommy Tuberville says Kiel and Munchie Legaux both will play, with third QB Jarred Evans still suspended indefinitely. Kiel leads the AAC with 20 TD passes. Shaq Washington leads UC in catches (43) and yards (468), with three TD catches.
When East Carolina runs
Breon Allen averages 7.0 yards per carry and is fourth in the AAC in rushing, at 75.6 yards per game. Allen fumbled twice in ECU's last game, a 20-10 loss to Temple in a driving rain. Chris Hairston rushed for 153 yards against Temple but also fumbled once. Overall, ECU averages a healthy 5.6 yards per carry.
When East Carolina passes
QB Shane Carden ranks No. 3 nationally in passing yards per game (348.9). Justin Hardy has 65 catches for 814 yards and six TDs. Hardy needs 19 catches to set the NCAA career record. ECU has a solid No. 2 receiver in Isaiah Jones, who has 55 catches and four TDs. Tall task for UC's 106th-ranked passing defense.
Special teams
UC PK Andrew Gantz (10-for-11 on FGs) is one of 20 semifinalists for the Lou Groza Award. Gantz's ECU counterpart, Warren Harvey is 7-for-12 on FGs. ECU has the stronger punting game, but UC is better on kickoff and punt returns. With an expectedly tight game, special teams ultimately could decide things.
GRESH'S GAMEPLAN: FIVE KEYS TO VICTORY
1. Quick getaway
UC often likes to strike early with a long pass, and the Bearcats are at their best when they grab a quick lead. UC is 4-0 when leading after one quarter and 5-0 when leading at halftime. Conversely, UC is 0-3 when trailing after both one quarter and at half. A fast start will be crucial on a cold night.
2. Contain Carden and Co.
UC faces the top quarterback in the AAC, Carden, and his receivers Hardy and Jones. Carden also is rated one of the top six NFL QB prospects for the 2015 draft. Defensive ends Terrell Hartsfield and Silverberry Mouhon must pressure Carden, and the Bearcats' secondary simply cannot get beaten deep.
3. Create space for Moore and Boone
UC RBs Moore and Boone face a big challenge. ECU ranks No. 8 nationally in run defense, with 353-pound nose tackle Terry Williams clogging the middle. The upside for UC is that the offensive line (Eric Lefeld, Ryan Leahy, Deyshawn Bond, Parker Ehinger, Justin Murray) has been playing its best ball.
4. Force some turnovers
Good teams can overcome turnovers, but ball security especially looms large in close matchups such as this. UC has forced nine turnovers in its last three games (all wins), and a timely pick or forced fumble could swing the game. LB Jeff Luc (89 tackles, 3 forced fumbles) is the top UC playmaker.
5. Manage the cold
"You won't recognize me," Tuberville said, when asked about his game attire. Temperatures will be in the 20s, which could make lesser men weep. ECU visits from warmer climes but UC may not have the advantage, having practiced mostly in warm weather recently. Toughness and endurance will be paramount.
Prediction: UC 34, East Carolina 32
The Bearcats are on their best roll of the season. Three straight wins, Kiel back near 100 percent, plenty of confidence. East Carolina comes in on a downer, having just been upset by Temple. The Pirates are still dangerous and oddsmakers rate them a slight favorite, but UC holds on to win at freezing PBS.
TEAM AVERAGES
Total Offense UC 465.9 ECU 550.0
Run Offense UC 157.4 ECU 188.8
Pass Offense UC 308.5 ECU 361.2
Points scored UC 34.8 ECU 35.9
Total defense UC 475.6 ECU 339.4
Run defense UC 208.9 ECU 96.8
Pass defense UC 266.8 ECU 242.6
http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/c.../18923995/