(11-13-2014 04:20 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-13-2014 03:44 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Quickly looking back the past 8 years of rankings at the end of the regular season (before the bowls). Pretty much all the P5 conferences had their champion in the top 8 most years. The conference that would benefit most would be the ACC who hardly had their champion in the top 8...yet alone in top 14.
Maybe with Louisville and the 5 game ND clause will change that even if FSU isn't undefeated.
But, looking back historically, it isn't that much of a big deal to have a P5 auto bid as usually the 13th game provides and extra boost to leap over teams with another quality win.

Now...what about the best G5 champ? Its easier to get to #8, its been done before..but the committee doesn't have a track record yet compared to the BCS days where BSU, Utah and TCU as part of the lower conferences actually was ranked that high. I would make a stipulation that if a P5 champ is not ranked in the top 8 then the best G5 champion goes to the playoff automatically.

I've been racking my brain about a solution to this. With the way that this season has been going, I think it's going to be much harder for the G5 to claim an auto-playoff spot in an 8-team playoff in the way that it has an access bowl slot. Still, there's an inherent inequity if a P5 champ that's actually lower ranked than a G5 champ gets into the playoff (while such G5 champ gets left out). I think your proposal is hard to apply across the board because if you already have one "bad" P5 champ in the playoff, then you only make the playoff even worse in quality by automatically including a lower ranked team. No one (other than the fans of the 2 "bad" teams making it into the playoff) really wants to see that occur when you're talking about the national championship (as opposed to consolation bowl games).

What's probably the best compromise is a BCS-style rankings requirement - a top 12 G5 champ automatically gets into the playoff and then leave it at that.

I don't think the playoff would be any worse if 2 'bad' teams are in for 1 year. Kinda like how how the NFL playoffs aren't compromised by 9-7 or 8-8 teams winning the division and going in the playoffs.

However, What I was thinking vs what I wrote above should be like this for the G5 champ.
1. Of course if #1-8 they are in.
2. If the lowest P5 champ is #9 or lower but the G5 champ is rated higher, the G5 champ goes to the playoff. [even if G5 is #20 and P5 #25].
Will that happen every year? No, but it will happen sometimes which I think is fair. I do want to have the best 8 teams, but by putting auto-bid for the P5 conferences, sometimes only the best 6 teams get invited along with 2 'wildcard bad teams'.

I created a chart of our last ten seasons with the BCS and while conference realignment has changed a bunch of dynamics, here are the basic conclusions.

Only in 2007, 2008, and 2013 would there have been more than 4 legitimate candidates for the CFP. Would arguments have been made for team 5 or 6 in some of those years? Sure. But if you're talking about one team (two in very select years) from each conference, there are numerous years where no Power 5 conference champ (or highest ranked) deserved in.

04--No Big Ten or ACC worthy.
05--No ACC or SEC worthy.
06--No Big 12 or ACC worthy.
09--No Big Ten, ACC, or Pac-12 worthy (three strong mid-majors that year)
10--No Big 12 or ACC worthy.
11--No Big Ten worthy.
12--No Big Ten or ACC worthy.

Taking those statistics, I think there's a strong chance (70%) that there will be no real valid debate this year about who is in, who is out.

Likely scenario...TOP 4
1 or 2 loss SEC champ
Florida State (with 1 or 0 losses)
1-loss Oregon
1-loss Big 12 champ

Team #5-#8?
1-loss of 2-loss Big 12 school
2-loss SEC school(s)
2-loss Big Ten champ
2-loss Pac-12 runner-up

I don't think there will be a debate (except from Big 12's scorned school, but oh well...they got one in)

(11-13-2014 05:26 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  I created a chart of our last ten seasons with the BCS and while conference realignment has changed a bunch of dynamics, here are the basic conclusions.

Only in 2007, 2008, and 2013 would there have been more than 4 legitimate candidates for the CFP. Would arguments have been made for team 5 or 6 in some of those years? Sure. But if you're talking about one team (two in very select years) from each conference, there are numerous years where no Power 5 conference champ (or highest ranked) deserved in.

04--No Big Ten or ACC worthy.
05--No ACC or SEC worthy.
06--No Big 12 or ACC worthy.
09--No Big Ten, ACC, or Pac-12 worthy (three strong mid-majors that year)
10--No Big 12 or ACC worthy.
11--No Big Ten worthy.
12--No Big Ten or ACC worthy.

Taking those statistics, I think there's a strong chance (70%) that there will be no real valid debate this year about who is in, who is out.

Likely scenario...TOP 4
1 or 2 loss SEC champ
Florida State (with 1 or 0 losses)
1-loss Oregon
1-loss Big 12 champ

Team #5-#8?
1-loss of 2-loss Big 12 school
2-loss SEC school(s)
2-loss Big Ten champ
2-loss Pac-12 runner-up

I don't think there will be a debate (except from Big 12's scorned school, but oh well...they got one in)

Why are you assuming a two-loss BIG champ?
And why are you assuming a two-loss SEC champ is worthy?

Wedge - the amount of money that conferences are getting from placing teams in the playoff itself is minimal. The real money is simply the massive guaranteed payment that the P5 receive each year from the CFP system overall (whether they put a team in the playoff or not). The Big Ten and SEC actually get significantly more from placing a team in the Orange Bowl (much less the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl).

Guaranteed money, guaranteed money, guaranteed money. Every single decision by the P5 (realignment, TV contracts, bowls, CFP) revolves around that concept. Guaranteed money to eliminate all downside risk ALWAYS has outweighed the desire to maximize the upside to the P5.

(11-13-2014 06:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Wedge - the amount of money that conferences are getting from placing teams in the playoff itself is minimal. The real money is simply the massive guaranteed payment that the P5 receive each year from the CFP system overall (whether they put a team in the playoff or not). The Big Ten and SEC actually get significantly more from placing a team in the Orange Bowl (much less the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl).

Guaranteed money, guaranteed money, guaranteed money. Every single decision by the P5 (realignment, TV contracts, bowls, CFP) revolves around that concept. Guaranteed money to eliminate all downside risk ALWAYS has outweighed the desire to maximize the upside to the P5.

It's not the playoff or TV money. It's the enhanced reputation for the conference from putting multiple teams in the playoff, which increases value over the long term. Look at how the SEC has increased its long-term value over the last 15 years or so.