(11-09-2014 01:03 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  ECU controls it's own destiny in the AAC because if they win out at worst they would be co-champs with Memphis & would be ranked higher due to having one less loss overall. Boise State has better losses but they lost to those teams by more total points. Any team can lose to good teams (although I'm not sure how good AF is). While ECU's losses are worse, ECU can gain some momentum @ Cincy this week on Thursday night (a solid opponent).

More importantly, I think that the committee puts a lot of weight on playing and beating P5 competition. Even though ECU played 3 average BCS teams, Boise hasn't beaten any and that win over a spiraling BYU can't count for much at this point. I think that even if the committee thinks BSU is better they may consider total resume & reward the team that scheduled and beat P5 competition because to do otherwise would establish the very precedent and incentive that they are diametrically opposed to: rewarding teams for not playing and beating the 'Big Boys.'

VT, UNC, and SC are below average P5 teams and Boise has played a tougher schedule.

Plus the MWC is the best G5 conference, so it is much better to be outright MWC champ than AAC co-champ.

Quote:ECU controls it's own destiny in the AAC because if they win out at worst they would be co-champs with Memphis & would be ranked higher due to having one less loss overall.

There's always *1* conference champion -- whoever breaks the tie-breaker. It's not overall record -- that may come down the line of attempts of a tie-breaker, but it's always comparative schedules within the conference itself first.

If the AAC gets a 4-way tie things can get REALLY complicated. I would say ECU pretty much, yes, does control their destiny. If they win out, you can assume they'll win the conference. However, the way ECU is playing -- you CANNOT assume, at all, that they'll win out. :)

Quote:VT, UNC, and SC are below average P5 teams and Boise has played a tougher schedule.

Yes, just like rankings varying some, SoS definitely does too. Of the contenders of 1-loss/2-loss teams, here's the SoS from a place Right Now:

http://www.teamrankings.com SoS:
#69 Boise St
#72 LA-Tech
#75 Colorado St
-----------------
#94 Air Force
#98 E Carolina
-----------------
#121 NIU
#124 Marshall

Now, these change from one SoS analysis to another, and also within the same SoS analysis week-to-week to some degree. Conference Championship games almost always bumps up a lower-SoS team, too.

But SoS overall shouldn't really be focused on -- it should be ranking of the Individual Team you win and lose to -- and to what categorical degree. If you lose to Ole Miss by 3 TDs, that helps your SoS, but also it's a Bad Loss -- hurts your Resume. Even though replacing that with, say, a 7-5 Rice who You beat by 3 TDs lowers your overall SoS, you still have a Better Resume in comparison.

Overall SoS is clear to look at when you look at an undefeated team, like Marshall. Marshall's easy to look at. They dominated all their teams, except a normal-range (less than 3 possessions) win over rival Miami-OH. Marshall will have their toughest game against LA-Tech, who's ranked from 35-45 in various team rankings. If Marshall dominates them, that will really help them a lot. If Marshall goes 13-0, with 11-12 dominant (by 3+ possessions) wins -- they'll beat out Boise.

Marshall with their SoS, if very convincingly undefeated @ 13-0, will be ranked in every notable poll. Thing is, in good polls that pay attention to SoS, they won't be able to be ranked very high! You can blame them for not having a tough SoS -- fair enough. They'll be stuck in the mud around #20ish in polls by the end of the year that pay attention & value SoS. But if all other G5 Conference Champs can't get themselves any higher -- there's no reason to b!tch about them going to the Access Bowl. :)

At this point until I see ECU play a good game again I'm not predicting anything. I know what they are capable of, but at a certain point you are what you are and what ECU is right now is a talented but extremely undisciplined football team that will shoot itself in the foot repeatedly.

(11-09-2014 04:18 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:ECU controls it's own destiny in the AAC because if they win out at worst they would be co-champs with Memphis & would be ranked higher due to having one less loss overall.

There's always *1* conference champion -- whoever breaks the tie-breaker. It's not overall record -- that may come down the line of attempts of a tie-breaker, but it's always comparative schedules within the conference itself first.

Not this year. For 2014 the AAC does not have a tie-breaker procedure beyond the simple won-loss record. So if two teams finish with the same conference record, they will be declared co-champions. The way things are now, they could end up with 3 or 4 co-champs.

With regards to the Access bowl, this is a double-edge sword. On one hand, it means the conference could have multiple teams that the CFP committee could consider for the Access slot, whereas conferences with a clear-cut champ will only have one.

But on the other, the committee might look more favorably on the clear-cut champ of another G5 when compared to an AAC school that is merely a co-champ.

People forget that the AAC is currently a 4-way tie for first: Memphis, ECU, UCF, and Cincinnati. Although only ECU and UCF control their own destineis. What are the tiebreakers if 2 teams who don't play each other are tied for first? UCF doesn't play UC or Memphis, and Memphis doesn't play ECU.

The Access Bowl is a tossup right now between the MWC and AAC champions. I'd still take a 3-loss AAC or MWC team over Marshall. But that's just me.

(11-09-2014 05:29 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  People forget that the AAC is currently a 4-way tie for first: Memphis, ECU, UCF, and Cincinnati. Although only ECU and UCF control their own destineis. What are the tiebreakers if 2 teams who don't play each other are tied for first? UCF doesn't play UC or Memphis, and Memphis doesn't play ECU.

The Access Bowl is a tossup right now between the MWC and AAC champions. I'd still take a 3-loss AAC or MWC team over Marshall. But that's just me.

First, the Access Bowl is not a tossup between the MWC and AAC. As of right now, the pecking order is (1) Marshall, (2) Boise/CSU, (3) AAC champ.

Also, this year the AAC has no tie-breaker beyond record. If two or more teams end up with the same record, they will officially be co-champs.

(11-09-2014 05:29 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  People forget that the AAC is currently a 4-way tie for first: Memphis, ECU, UCF, and Cincinnati. Although only ECU and UCF control their own destineis. What are the tiebreakers if 2 teams who don't play each other are tied for first? UCF doesn't play UC or Memphis, and Memphis doesn't play ECU.

The Access Bowl is a tossup right now between the MWC and AAC champions. I'd still take a 3-loss AAC or MWC team over Marshall. But that's just me.

Ok.

The AAC played a lot of games against the P5 this season. We as a conference didn't win enough of them - and it's all coming home to roost now...

I think a perfect Marshall will make the Access Bowl this season. If they drop a game, then it will come down to ECU's ACC wins, Colorado State's body of work, etc.

12-0/13-0 is the trump card right now.

Quote:Not this year. For 2014 the AAC does not have a tie-breaker procedure beyond the simple won-loss record. So if two teams finish with the same conference record, they will be declared co-champions. The way things are now, they could end up with 3 or 4 co-champs.

Yeah, I know they'd be seen as co-champs, as divisional co-champs in conferences will be seen as such, but tie-breakers applied to see who goes to Conf Champ game.

Yeah, if the AAC doesn't have a tie-breaker for the Possible selection of "THE Conf Champ" (like BCS Bowl when it was the Big East) -- and leaves it up to a committee, then yeah, they'll probably take the team they believe is the better one. Now, if This committee's Emphasis is on THE winner of the CONFERENCE -- and wants to look at a tie-breaker from that point of view FIRST -- I would assume they'd look for that Within the conference.

Otherwise, if there's a 2-team tie, I would assume if both teams played each other -- they'd chose the one who won that game... otherwise, just go generally how good they are.

ECU's playing like sh!t -- they'll lose another. Their OOC "tough" schedule now looks "good for a mid-major, but not the best". Plus, not playing Memphis -- a top player in the conference hurts their SoS within it.

MY PREDICTION: Memphis (9-3) wins the AAC. Everyone else beats up on each other and has 2 Conf losses underneath. Memphis' remaining games are not tough the way through. ECU fans cry and tell their OC to get the hell out and stop shopping for a promotion mid-season, as it really hurt their team. :)

Memphis (9-3) - As described above
Nevada (9-4) - Loses @Air Force; Upsets Boise in MWC game
LA-Lafayette (8-4) - GA-Southern ineligible; LA-Laf only loses 1 more game
Northern Illinois (11-2) - Wins Out; Beats then 9-4 BGSU in Champ Game
Louisiana Tech (10-3) - Upsets Marshall in CUSAC game

That'd be a situation where this forum section would light up like a Christmas Tree!!

(11-09-2014 06:42 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Not this year. For 2014 the AAC does not have a tie-breaker procedure beyond the simple won-loss record. So if two teams finish with the same conference record, they will be declared co-champions. The way things are now, they could end up with 3 or 4 co-champs.

Yeah, I know they'd be seen as co-champs, as divisional co-champs in conferences will be seen as such, but tie-breakers applied to see who goes to Conf Champ game.

Yeah, if the AAC doesn't have a tie-breaker for the Possible selection of "THE Conf Champ" (like BCS Bowl when it was the Big East) -- and leaves it up to a committee, then yeah, they'll probably take the team they believe is the better one. Now, if This committee's Emphasis is on THE winner of the CONFERENCE -- and wants to look at a tie-breaker from that point of view FIRST -- I would assume they'd look for that Within the conference.

Otherwise, if there's a 2-team tie, I would assume if both teams played each other -- they'd chose the one who won that game... otherwise, just go generally how good they are.

ECU's playing like sh!t -- they'll lose another. Their OOC "tough" schedule now looks "good for a mid-major, but not the best". Plus, not playing Memphis -- a top player in the conference hurts their SoS within it.

MY PREDICTION: Memphis (9-3) wins the AAC. Everyone else beats up on each other and has 2 Conf losses underneath. Memphis' remaining games are not tough the way through. ECU fans cry and tell their OC to get the hell out and stop shopping for a promotion mid-season, as it really hurt their team. :)

Memphis (9-3) - As described above
Nevada (9-4) - Loses @Air Force; Upsets Boise in MWC game
LA-Lafayette (8-4) - GA-Southern ineligible; LA-Laf only loses 1 more game
Northern Illinois (11-2) - Wins Out; Beats then 9-4 BGSU in Champ Game
Louisiana Tech (10-3) - Upsets Marshall in CUSAC game

That'd be a situation where this forum section would light up like a Christmas Tree!!

Louisiana Tech lost to a FCS school, they wouldn't be receiving the bid in this scenario.

(11-09-2014 06:42 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Not this year. For 2014 the AAC does not have a tie-breaker procedure beyond the simple won-loss record. So if two teams finish with the same conference record, they will be declared co-champions. The way things are now, they could end up with 3 or 4 co-champs.

Yeah, I know they'd be seen as co-champs, as divisional co-champs in conferences will be seen as such, but tie-breakers applied to see who goes to Conf Champ game.

Yeah, if the AAC doesn't have a tie-breaker for the Possible selection of "THE Conf Champ" (like BCS Bowl when it was the Big East) -- and leaves it up to a committee, then yeah, they'll probably take the team they believe is the better one. Now, if This committee's Emphasis is on THE winner of the CONFERENCE -- and wants to look at a tie-breaker from that point of view FIRST -- I would assume they'd look for that Within the conference.

Otherwise, if there's a 2-team tie, I would assume if both teams played each other -- they'd chose the one who won that game... otherwise, just go generally how good they are.

ECU's playing like sh!t -- they'll lose another. Their OOC "tough" schedule now looks "good for a mid-major, but not the best". Plus, not playing Memphis -- a top player in the conference hurts their SoS within it.

MY PREDICTION: Memphis (9-3) wins the AAC. Everyone else beats up on each other and has 2 Conf losses underneath. Memphis' remaining games are not tough the way through. ECU fans cry and tell their OC to get the hell out and stop shopping for a promotion mid-season, as it really hurt their team. :)

Memphis (9-3) - As described above
Nevada (9-4) - Loses @Air Force; Upsets Boise in MWC game
LA-Lafayette (8-4) - GA-Southern ineligible; LA-Laf only loses 1 more game
Northern Illinois (11-2) - Wins Out; Beats then 9-4 BGSU in Champ Game
Louisiana Tech (10-3) - Upsets Marshall in CUSAC game

That'd be a situation where this forum section would light up like a Christmas Tree!!

If all of the bowl slots are not filled, Ga Southern then becomes eligible for a bowl and thus eligible for the G5 auto bid. We have Navy and ULM left so we have a good shot to finish 10-2 with a 1 point loss to ncsu and 4 point loss to GT. We had the lead with less than a minute to go in both losses.

Quote:If all of the bowl slots are not filled, Ga Southern then becomes eligible for a bowl and thus eligible for the G5 auto bid.

Are you sure about that -- or going by the assumption of "if bowl eligible due to lack of 6-6 teams, it opens up all doors to us to go to any bowl, and we're not a filler for anyone"?

Assuming both win out, and Marshall is off the table then Boise State.

They've got a tougher strength of schedule and a conference championship game that will put them over East Carolina easily.

(11-10-2014 11:35 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  Assuming both win out, and Marshall is off the table then Boise State.

They've got a tougher strength of schedule and a conference championship game that will put them over East Carolina easily.

Plus, and let's face it because it matters, ECU has "lost its shine". Before the Temple debacle, voters were ignoring a lot of the holes in ECU's resume because they had a kind of halo around them. Early on, they were annointed this year's "It" G5 team. They were the Teflon G5 team and thus their resume had a resistance to critical, logical scrutiny.

But the loss to Temple stripped that away.

(11-10-2014 10:08 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  If all of the bowl slots are not filled, Ga Southern then becomes eligible for a bowl and thus eligible for the G5 auto bid. We have Navy and ULM left so we have a good shot to finish 10-2 with a 1 point loss to ncsu and 4 point loss to GT. We had the lead with less than a minute to go in both losses.

Source Please?

Marshall is ranked #21 in both polls the highest of any G5 team, comfortable above ECU and Boise State. It's hard to imagine that they are not going to br ranked in the CFPR tonight. As long as they remain unbeaten they are in.

Georgia Southern does not automatically become bowl eligible if there are not enough other eligible teams to fill the available bowl slots. They would have to ask the NCAA for a waiver if that were to happen.

The NCAA could have several options. They could declare GS eligible to fill a vacant Sun Belt Conference commitment only (there would only be one if neither South Alabama nor Texas State wins another game). They could declare GS eligible for another bowl, but not the guaranteed access bowl slot. They could make them fully eligible for any available bowl. Or, they could deny the request, and fill the unused bowl slots with teams with a 5-7 record, in order of their APR scores (which is the current default solution).

(11-09-2014 06:42 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Not this year. For 2014 the AAC does not have a tie-breaker procedure beyond the simple won-loss record. So if two teams finish with the same conference record, they will be declared co-champions. The way things are now, they could end up with 3 or 4 co-champs.

Yeah, I know they'd be seen as co-champs, as divisional co-champs in conferences will be seen as such, but tie-breakers applied to see who goes to Conf Champ game.

Yeah, if the AAC doesn't have a tie-breaker for the Possible selection of "THE Conf Champ" (like BCS Bowl when it was the Big East) -- and leaves it up to a committee, then yeah, they'll probably take the team they believe is the better one. Now, if This committee's Emphasis is on THE winner of the CONFERENCE -- and wants to look at a tie-breaker from that point of view FIRST -- I would assume they'd look for that Within the conference.

Otherwise, if there's a 2-team tie, I would assume if both teams played each other -- they'd chose the one who won that game... otherwise, just go generally how good they are.

ECU's playing like sh!t -- they'll lose another. Their OOC "tough" schedule now looks "good for a mid-major, but not the best". Plus, not playing Memphis -- a top player in the conference hurts their SoS within it.

MY PREDICTION: Memphis (9-3) wins the AAC. Everyone else beats up on each other and has 2 Conf losses underneath. Memphis' remaining games are not tough the way through. ECU fans cry and tell their OC to get the hell out and stop shopping for a promotion mid-season, as it really hurt their team. :)

Memphis (9-3) - As described above
Nevada (9-4) - Loses @Air Force; Upsets Boise in MWC game
LA-Lafayette (8-4) - GA-Southern ineligible; LA-Laf only loses 1 more game
Northern Illinois (11-2) - Wins Out; Beats then 9-4 BGSU in Champ Game
Louisiana Tech (10-3) - Upsets Marshall in CUSAC game

That'd be a situation where this forum section would light up like a Christmas Tree!!

It is still possible for Fresno State to win the MWC with a 7-6 record. San Diego State could also win it, with an 8-5 record.

(11-11-2014 09:25 AM)ken d Wrote:  Georgia Southern does not automatically become bowl eligible if there are not enough other eligible teams to fill the available bowl slots. They would have to ask the NCAA for a waiver if that were to happen.

The NCAA could have several options. They could declare GS eligible to fill a vacant Sun Belt Conference commitment only (there would only be one if neither South Alabama nor Texas State wins another game). They could declare GS eligible for another bowl, but not the guaranteed access bowl slot. They could make them fully eligible for any available bowl. Or, they could deny the request, and fill the unused bowl slots with teams with a 5-7 record, in order of their APR scores (which is the current default solution).

Yeah, that's the thing. If there's a shortage of 6-6 teams, it's been said that the NCAA will grant GA-Southern without any fuss to fill those gaps.

But the assumption that they'll get the Access Bowl, granting them a wish to play in a bowl 1st year? LOL -- IMO, bad assumption. IMO, they'd be put on the same "level" as 6-6 teams: 7+ win teams get first invitations; you're last.

And also -- can they Win the Sun Belt OFFICIALLY? Or are there restrictions on that? Do they technically knock out La-Lafayette from being a contender/possibility for the Access Bowl -- or due to their Newbie situation they aren't officially proclaimed as The winner and it's given to La-Lafayette?

(11-11-2014 09:06 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 10:08 PM)GSU Eagles Wrote:  If all of the bowl slots are not filled, Ga Southern then becomes eligible for a bowl and thus eligible for the G5 auto bid. We have Navy and ULM left so we have a good shot to finish 10-2 with a 1 point loss to ncsu and 4 point loss to GT. We had the lead with less than a minute to go in both losses.

Source Please?

Here you go.....

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca.../18633525/

Which brings up an interesting question: Could 7-2 Georgia Southern, which is currently ineligible for a bowl game because this is the Eagles' first year as a Football Bowl Subdivision member, be in the mix for that spot?

It's not impossible.

Gina Lehe, spokesperson for the College Football Playoff, confirmed that if Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt championship and was deemed eligible for a bowl game, it would be under consideration as one of the five conference champions eligible for the New Year's Day bowl bid.