Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

#10 will be Ole Miss

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

Last week they couldn't really justify Alabama except for the eyeball test. Does that still work? Don't think they are a lock for #4.

(11-09-2014 01:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 12:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Well with only 1 top 25 game left- playoff really starting to come into focus...

These 5 teams control their own destiny no matter what...
1 Florida State
2 Miss St or Alabama
3 Oregon or Arizona St

really the only teams that could get in before chaos with 2 loss teams get in are
Baylor, TCU, Ohio St, Nebraska

These 9 teams (plus Duke) are the only p5 teams left with fewer than 2 losses.

next week- 2 huge Big Ten tests...
Ohio St @ Minnesota
Nebraska @ Wisconsin

and of course Mississippi St @ Alabama

Mississippi St is the only team of the 9 that I think can lose a game and still get in the playoff.

Top 4 next week should be pretty easy
1 Mississippi St
2 Florida St
3 Oregon
4 Alabama

#5 will be real interesting. Your candidates are TCU, Arizona St, Baylor, and Ohio St. All 4 had top 15 wins this week- with all 4 looking very impressive. I'm assuming those 4 will be 5-8. #9 should be Nebraska. #10 will be real interesting to watch.

Last week they couldn't really justify Alabama except for the eyeball test. Does that still work? Don't think they are a lock for #4.

I can't see why they wouldn't be. There are more future NFL players on the LSU team they beat than on FSU or TCU. Or Mississippi State. And they beat them in front of 103,000 Baton Rouge crazies.

Not sure how squeaking out a win against LSU is more impressive than TCU blowing out a top 10 team or Oregon handling Utah comfortably.

I think for one the A&M win now looks way better. So yeah, think Alabama will be #4 now.

it really doesn't matter also. If Alabama beats Miss St, Auburn, and the SEC title game- they will be in the playoff. TCU can not say the same- for one that Baylor issue is going to get a lot bigger as we go along.

It should be a very close question between Alabama and TCU for #4. Arizona State will be #6.

Even if Alabama is #5 this Tuesday, it almost doesn't matter for them because they'll be in the top 4 if they beat Mississippi State next Saturday and won't be in the top 4 if they lose that one.

You are right, Stever. The 4,5, 6 debate is moot for Bama because they win and they're in. They don't have to worry about looking good.

Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

yeah.
1 Miss St
2 FSU
3 Oregon
4/5 Alabama/TCU in some order
6 Arizona St
7/8 Baylor/Ohio St in some order
9 Nebraska
10 Auburn/Ole Miss(think Auburn due to head to head)

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

They want to punish Baylor for their OOC but they also want to place an emphasis in head to head. I guess we will see which is more important if they both win out,

If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I'm not so sure. The WVU loss might not be a quality loss if they keep losing and this committee seems hellbent on punishing teams with a weak OOC schedule. Plus the TCU win was so close.

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

(11-09-2014 01:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

What if Miss State loses to Alabama AND Ole Miss? Both are road games.

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

Then what?

(11-09-2014 01:50 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

What if Miss State loses to Alabama AND Ole Miss? Both are road games.

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

Then what?

That would be the real interesting part(you could add if East team wins the SEC).

Will have to see the Big Ten quite frankly as well. Ohio St and Nebraska both have HUGE games next week. Would think Wisconsin will be favored over Nebraska and Minnesota/Ohio St will be real interesting as well. Wisconsin and Minnesota both win- Big Ten is gone(and I think you would agree- no 2 loss Big Ten team would have a shot).

(11-09-2014 01:47 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:43 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  If we win out we will jump TCU. As the # of quality wins becomes more even BU will jump froggy due to head to head

I do think Baylor should be above TCU but the problem is that it would mean Baylor jumping from #12 to #4 which would actually push Alabama down a position despite that win at LSU. There is no good choice.

I think they will have to settle with putting Baylor in at #8 with a four position jump. Ohio State won against a higher ranked team, TCU beat the #7 ranked team and Alabama beat LSU which was only one position behind Oklahoma.

It isn't really fair to Baylor in my opinion but they still have an uphill climb.

This isn't the polls, you dont have to "justify" moving x # of spots. It's simply rank them how you see them and BU will be within 3-4 spots at worst this week and that's close enough that by December the head to head will push us ahead

(11-09-2014 01:50 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-09-2014 01:40 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Mississippi State still has two road games that will be challenging. The first is at Alabama and the second is at Ole Miss.
Alabama still has Miss State and Auburn but both of those are at home. Advantage to Alabama but still not a lock for the playoff. The SEC breathed a collective sigh of relief when Alabama squeaked by tonight but the issue of everyone having two losses isn't over yet.

I do think we will see TCU at the #4 slot. People can try to attribute whatever they want to LSU but Alabama barely squeaked by the committee's #16 team and TCU emphatically won against the committee's #7 team. Why bother putting two SEC teams in the temporary top 4 when we know one of them is going to lose next week? Nah, the Committee will put TCU in as #4 and Alabama will be #5.

The Committee has created a serious problem for themselves though. The problem is Baylor/TCU.

The thing that would be real interesting would be if Miss St loses to Alabama- but then Alabama lost to Auburn. Miss St wins the division and goes to SEC title game and wins. Got to think Miss St will be in the playoff.

I do think you are right about Baylor/TCU. TCU has what could become a huge schedule advantage with Minnesota. Baylor has the head to head, and would have the conference championship. Really fascinating to see how this plays out.

What if Miss State loses to Alabama AND Ole Miss? Both are road games.

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

Then what?

The SEC champ will still go. The PAC 12, Big 12, and ACC champs will go but there is no other major champ that could take the SEC's place.