(11-10-2014 01:09 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 01:02 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 12:59 PM)Seventyniner Wrote:  All I know is that Bailiff better throw everything including the kitchen sink into this game.

This is the time to unveil some of the trick or against the normal habit plays.

Keep in mind that God willing we win this game, we still need to win out (UTEP and La Tech). If we win out, chances are very good we play Marshall again in the Championship game. What is the balance?

Winning out is the scenario we're all pulling for. We beat Marshall I like our chances.

(11-10-2014 02:22 PM)talon owl Wrote:  Marshall is 7th in the nation in rushing at ~295 yards per game. They are 37th in passing at ~271 yards per game.

They lead the nation in yards per play at over 8.

If the weather makes throwing difficult, stats suggest they'll be just fine on the ground.

We're going to have to jump on them early like last year and snatch up all the momentum before they have the chance to get their juggernaut offense rolling.


Rice is, however, 5th in the nation in sacks per game. So we have that going for us, which is nice.

Rice has similar balance with 224 ypg passing and 197 ypg rushing (421 total compared to 466 for Marshall).

What happens when either offense becomes one-dimensional is a different question, than just the average yards per game, though.

(11-10-2014 03:07 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 02:22 PM)talon owl Wrote:  Marshall is 7th in the nation in rushing at ~295 yards per game. They are 37th in passing at ~271 yards per game.

They lead the nation in yards per play at over 8.

If the weather makes throwing difficult, stats suggest they'll be just fine on the ground.

We're going to have to jump on them early like last year and snatch up all the momentum before they have the chance to get their juggernaut offense rolling.


Rice is, however, 5th in the nation in sacks per game. So we have that going for us, which is nice.

Rice has similar balance with 224 ypg passing and 197 ypg rushing (421 total compared to 466 for Marshall).

What happens when either offense becomes one-dimensional is a different question, than just the average yards per game, though.

You mean 566 for Marshall, 421 for Rice. Pretty big gap.

A couple stats that give me hope:
Penalties/game: Rice 30th (5.1/game); Marshall 122nd (8.9/game)
Penalty yards/game: Rice 46th (48.1/game); Marshall 125th (85.6/game)
Rice and Marshall are very close on a lot of stats (turnover margin, sacks, TFL, 3rd-down conversions) and Rice has had a much tougher SOS.

Excluding common opponents (ODU, Southern Miss, and FIU):
Marshall has only played 2 top-100 defenses (by yards/game). Rice has played 6.
Marshall has played 4 bottom-30 defenses. Rice has played 0.
Marshall has only played 1 top-50 offense (by yards/game). Rice has played 2. Both teams have played 4 bottom-50 offenses.

Both teams are very similar to their previous year's iterations. Home field is worth 3 points, so I'll go with...

Owls 38
Herd 27

(11-10-2014 03:14 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 03:07 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 02:22 PM)talon owl Wrote:  Marshall is 7th in the nation in rushing at ~295 yards per game. They are 37th in passing at ~271 yards per game.

They lead the nation in yards per play at over 8.

If the weather makes throwing difficult, stats suggest they'll be just fine on the ground.

We're going to have to jump on them early like last year and snatch up all the momentum before they have the chance to get their juggernaut offense rolling.


Rice is, however, 5th in the nation in sacks per game. So we have that going for us, which is nice.

Rice has similar balance with 224 ypg passing and 197 ypg rushing (421 total compared to 466 for Marshall).

What happens when either offense becomes one-dimensional is a different question, than just the average yards per game, though.

You mean 566 for Marshall, 421 for Rice. Pretty big gap.

Oops. I've been pretty bad at basic math this past week.

(11-10-2014 03:28 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 03:14 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 03:07 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 02:22 PM)talon owl Wrote:  Marshall is 7th in the nation in rushing at ~295 yards per game. They are 37th in passing at ~271 yards per game.

They lead the nation in yards per play at over 8.

If the weather makes throwing difficult, stats suggest they'll be just fine on the ground.

We're going to have to jump on them early like last year and snatch up all the momentum before they have the chance to get their juggernaut offense rolling.


Rice is, however, 5th in the nation in sacks per game. So we have that going for us, which is nice.

Rice has similar balance with 224 ypg passing and 197 ypg rushing (421 total compared to 466 for Marshall).

What happens when either offense becomes one-dimensional is a different question, than just the average yards per game, though.

You mean 566 for Marshall, 421 for Rice. Pretty big gap.

Oops. I've been pretty bad at basic math this past week.

Basic math is a junior level course some places.

Herd fan here. I hope to offer an honest assessment of our team. Some Marshall fans may disagree with me.

We are vulnerable in the interior of our defensive line. We are undersized (I have no idea what the measurements say, but I am just using my eyes) and are built for speed. Where we struggle is a team that can run it straight at us behind a solid offensive line. Southern Miss and FAU both tried this to some degrees of success. The problem is that our offense just keeps scoring. At some point, teams have had a holding and go behind the chains or we have sent a rare run blitz and got a team behind the chains. Then an opponent punts a time or two and we just keep scoring. Eventually the deficit gets opponents out of their game plan, they start to throw, and then our defense has them because we can rush the passer and have a solid secondary.

This is not to say that we cannot stop the run necessarily. We have not felt compelled to change all that much schematically to stop the run to this point. As many posters have pointed out, we have not truly been challenged. We have not switched up to 5 man fronts or anything. We have brought run blitzes in spots, but not anything widespread for a game. Against FAU, when we were down, we narrowed our splits a bit on the defensive line and brought linebackers a bit closer to the line in the second half. That did the trick well enough, but FAU did not have a QB capable of making us pay through play action.

When we are on offense, the most underrated aspect of the team is our offensive line. I have been watching Marshall for a long time. To me, this is the best offensive line I have ever seen at Marshall. We can flat move people. And we have the backs to take advantage. We are deep at RB. We can get it done with or without Devon Johnson, though he is special. Our passing game is not as fearsome this year to my eyes. The past couple of years, we worked the middle of the field hard with Gator Hoskins and Tommy Shuler. Gator is gone. Tommy gets more coverage designed his way now. Our passing game can move the chains, but where we hurt you is by running, running, running, and then chucking a pass 35 yards down the sideline in single coverage. We may miss 3 in a row, and then we hit one for a TD. We have not really played a team yet that made up pay for missing 3 in a row. We will go spurts of a game where we are missing the deep ball and we punt a few times. No team has made up pay for this.

My understanding of your team is that you have a solid power running game. I am not sure what sort of QB you have. I am familiar with him somewhat, but am not sure if he can punish single coverage against good corners. I also understand that you are solid against the run but have a weak secondary. To me, this will be the difference in the game. Cato is still Cato and we have plenty of receivers. If you are not solid in the secondary, Marshall will back you out of the box. No matter the team, if we force the defense out of the box, I like our offensive line's chances of opening up holes.

I like Marshall in this game. I won't give a score, but I think the basic formula for the season will hold. We will struggle some in spots, but a few defensive stands here and there will take Rice out of their game. That is when we start rolling typically. Good luck. Hope some of you make the trip.

(11-10-2014 01:09 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 01:02 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 12:59 PM)Seventyniner Wrote:  All I know is that Bailiff better throw everything including the kitchen sink into this game.

This is the time to unveil some of the trick or against the normal habit plays.

Keep in mind that God willing we win this game, we still need to win out (UTEP and La Tech). If we win out, chances are very good we play Marshall again in the Championship game. What is the balance?

No balance. Pull every trick, play every card. The existence of a conference championship rematch against Marshall is nowhere near guaranteed. This Saturday's game is.

I don't think Marshall is that much better than Rice if each team is at its best. Unfortunately Rice hasn't put 60 minutes together all year and Marshall seems to do it every week. Add home field craziness and no Covington, and I'll say:

Marshall 41, Rice 23.

(11-10-2014 04:27 PM)Marshall2004 Wrote:  Herd fan here. I hope to offer an honest assessment of our team. Some Marshall fans may disagree with me.

We are vulnerable in the interior of our defensive line. We are undersized (I have no idea what the measurements say, but I am just using my eyes) and are built for speed. Where we struggle is a team that can run it straight at us behind a solid offensive line. Southern Miss and FAU both tried this to some degrees of success. The problem is that our offense just keeps scoring. At some point, teams have had a holding and go behind the chains or we have sent a rare run blitz and got a team behind the chains. Then an opponent punts a time or two and we just keep scoring. Eventually the deficit gets opponents out of their game plan, they start to throw, and then our defense has them because we can rush the passer and have a solid secondary.

This is not to say that we cannot stop the run necessarily. We have not felt compelled to change all that much schematically to stop the run to this point. As many posters have pointed out, we have not truly been challenged. We have not switched up to 5 man fronts or anything. We have brought run blitzes in spots, but not anything widespread for a game. Against FAU, when we were down, we narrowed our splits a bit on the defensive line and brought linebackers a bit closer to the line in the second half. That did the trick well enough, but FAU did not have a QB capable of making us pay through play action.

When we are on offense, the most underrated aspect of the team is our offensive line. I have been watching Marshall for a long time. To me, this is the best offensive line I have ever seen at Marshall. We can flat move people. And we have the backs to take advantage. We are deep at RB. We can get it done with or without Devon Johnson, though he is special. Our passing game is not as fearsome this year to my eyes. The past couple of years, we worked the middle of the field hard with Gator Hoskins and Tommy Shuler. Gator is gone. Tommy gets more coverage designed his way now. Our passing game can move the chains, but where we hurt you is by running, running, running, and then chucking a pass 35 yards down the sideline in single coverage. We may miss 3 in a row, and then we hit one for a TD. We have not really played a team yet that made up pay for missing 3 in a row. We will go spurts of a game where we are missing the deep ball and we punt a few times. No team has made up pay for this.

My understanding of your team is that you have a solid power running game. I am not sure what sort of QB you have. I am familiar with him somewhat, but am not sure if he can punish single coverage against good corners. I also understand that you are solid against the run but have a weak secondary. To me, this will be the difference in the game. Cato is still Cato and we have plenty of receivers. If you are not solid in the secondary, Marshall will back you out of the box. No matter the team, if we force the defense out of the box, I like our offensive line's chances of opening up holes.

I like Marshall in this game. I won't give a score, but I think the basic formula for the season will hold. We will struggle some in spots, but a few defensive stands here and there will take Rice out of their game. That is when we start rolling typically. Good luck. Hope some of you make the trip.

This sounds like an accurate assessment, and it's why we'll really miss Covington I'm afraid.
We have to hope our run game can keep their offense off the field.
Over/Under perhaps 75-80?
We have a good chance I think - if we play like we did against A&M.

(11-10-2014 07:07 PM)Barney Wrote:  

(11-10-2014 04:27 PM)Marshall2004 Wrote:  Herd fan here. I hope to offer an honest assessment of our team. Some Marshall fans may disagree with me.

We are vulnerable in the interior of our defensive line. We are undersized (I have no idea what the measurements say, but I am just using my eyes) and are built for speed. Where we struggle is a team that can run it straight at us behind a solid offensive line. Southern Miss and FAU both tried this to some degrees of success. The problem is that our offense just keeps scoring. At some point, teams have had a holding and go behind the chains or we have sent a rare run blitz and got a team behind the chains. Then an opponent punts a time or two and we just keep scoring. Eventually the deficit gets opponents out of their game plan, they start to throw, and then our defense has them because we can rush the passer and have a solid secondary.

This is not to say that we cannot stop the run necessarily. We have not felt compelled to change all that much schematically to stop the run to this point. As many posters have pointed out, we have not truly been challenged. We have not switched up to 5 man fronts or anything. We have brought run blitzes in spots, but not anything widespread for a game. Against FAU, when we were down, we narrowed our splits a bit on the defensive line and brought linebackers a bit closer to the line in the second half. That did the trick well enough, but FAU did not have a QB capable of making us pay through play action.

When we are on offense, the most underrated aspect of the team is our offensive line. I have been watching Marshall for a long time. To me, this is the best offensive line I have ever seen at Marshall. We can flat move people. And we have the backs to take advantage. We are deep at RB. We can get it done with or without Devon Johnson, though he is special. Our passing game is not as fearsome this year to my eyes. The past couple of years, we worked the middle of the field hard with Gator Hoskins and Tommy Shuler. Gator is gone. Tommy gets more coverage designed his way now. Our passing game can move the chains, but where we hurt you is by running, running, running, and then chucking a pass 35 yards down the sideline in single coverage. We may miss 3 in a row, and then we hit one for a TD. We have not really played a team yet that made up pay for missing 3 in a row. We will go spurts of a game where we are missing the deep ball and we punt a few times. No team has made up pay for this.

My understanding of your team is that you have a solid power running game. I am not sure what sort of QB you have. I am familiar with him somewhat, but am not sure if he can punish single coverage against good corners. I also understand that you are solid against the run but have a weak secondary. To me, this will be the difference in the game. Cato is still Cato and we have plenty of receivers. If you are not solid in the secondary, Marshall will back you out of the box. No matter the team, if we force the defense out of the box, I like our offensive line's chances of opening up holes.

I like Marshall in this game. I won't give a score, but I think the basic formula for the season will hold. We will struggle some in spots, but a few defensive stands here and there will take Rice out of their game. That is when we start rolling typically. Good luck. Hope some of you make the trip.

This sounds like an accurate assessment, and it's why we'll really miss Covington I'm afraid.
We have to hope our run game can keep their offense off the field.
Over/Under perhaps 75-80?
We have a good chance I think - if we play like we did against A&M.

Strikes me as an accurate and honest assessment. Glad Marshall2004 put it up.

(11-09-2014 09:40 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Much of their margin of victory is distorted from continuing to run up score late. They have to given their schedule. I don't blame them. As example last week, they were up 35-14 against USM in 4Q and continued to push it to get to 63-14.

That just isn't correct. Marshall did have a 21-0 4th quarter against USM, but all 3 scores came on rushes by backups RBs. One of them was a 1 play 83 yard drive.

For the season, Marshall has been very balanced the first 3 quarters with a big drop off in the 4th.

Average scoring margin per quarter:

1st 8.9

2nd 8.7

3rd 8.9

4th 4.7

Total 31.2

(11-10-2014 10:56 PM)Stick4489 Wrote:  That just isn't correct. Marshall did have a 21-0 4th quarter against USM, but all 3 scores came on rushes by backups RBs.

The one with 7:55 left came on a one yard run, set up by a 23 yard pass from Cato.

This is a tough one since Marshall has not really played anyone and have not been really challenged all year. If DJ is on, Rice has a chance. Marshall has not faced a good defense like Rice. Has Cato been sacked this year? I have to give this one to Marshall because it is being played at Marshall and our inconsistent kicking game. Also, this game is not as critical to Rice as to Marshall. I think we can still loose and still play them for the championship if we beat Lau Tech and UTEP?

This game means everything to our season for two reasons.

If we lose, we are out of contention for C-USA title in West. La Tech has zero losses and we would have two in conference. So even if we beat UTEP and La Tech, La Tech would be West champs (assuming they don't lose to ODU). ODU debacle in September haunts us.

Also important b/c I think the best bowl option for us is Heart of Dallas against a Big 10 team (likely Rutgers). I would think that La Tech gets that invite if they win the West (especially considering travel). If we lose, we are likely going to play a MAC, military, or MWC team which I don't think helps elevate the profile of the program w/ a W like a win over a P5 bowl eligible team.

I think we win this if we do 4 things. 1) O line needs to play well so DJ has time to throw. 2) We have great receivers but they MUST get separation and get open 3) We MUST shore up over the middle on defense. 4) Got to get in Cato's face all day. If we don't do these things, it will be a long game. GO OWLS!!!

(11-11-2014 08:37 AM)owl40 Wrote:  This game means everything to our season for two reasons.

If we lose, we are out of contention for C-USA title in West. La Tech has zero losses and we would have two in conference. So even if we beat UTEP and La Tech, La Tech would be West champs (assuming they don't lose to ODU). ODU debacle in September haunts us.

Also important b/c I think the best bowl option for us is Heart of Dallas against a Big 10 team (likely Rutgers). I would think that La Tech gets that invite if they win the West (especially considering travel). If we lose, we are likely going to play a MAC, military, or MWC team which I don't think helps elevate the profile of the program w/ a W like a win over a P5 bowl eligible team.

The ODU loss hurt big time. Now we have to win out.

In your scenario, if we finish second in C-USA West do we go to the Armed Force Bowl (you mentioned a military team as an opponent)?

(11-11-2014 09:26 AM)OwlMom15 Wrote:  I think we win this if we do 4 things. 1) O line needs to play well so DJ has time to throw. 2) We have great receivers but they MUST get separation and get open 3) We MUST shore up over the middle on defense. 4) Got to get in Cato's face all day. If we don't do these things, it will be a long game. GO OWLS!!!

OwlMom's got it right

(11-11-2014 09:26 AM)OwlMom15 Wrote:  I think we win this if we do 4 things. 1) O line needs to play well so DJ has time to throw and runners get room to run downfield. 2) We have great receivers but they MUST get separation and get open and catch every ball thrown to them. 3) We MUST shore up over the middle on defense. 4) Got to get in Cato's face all day. If we don't do these things, it will be a long game. GO OWLS!!!

Agree ... with the additions. No drops this week!

(11-11-2014 09:33 AM)3-OwlsInTheNest Wrote:  

(11-11-2014 08:37 AM)owl40 Wrote:  This game means everything to our season for two reasons.

If we lose, we are out of contention for C-USA title in West. La Tech has zero losses and we would have two in conference. So even if we beat UTEP and La Tech, La Tech would be West champs (assuming they don't lose to ODU). ODU debacle in September haunts us.

Also important b/c I think the best bowl option for us is Heart of Dallas against a Big 10 team (likely Rutgers). I would think that La Tech gets that invite if they win the West (especially considering travel). If we lose, we are likely going to play a MAC, military, or MWC team which I don't think helps elevate the profile of the program w/ a W like a win over a P5 bowl eligible team.

The ODU loss hurt big time. Now we have to win out.

In your scenario, if we finish second in C-USA West do we go to the Armed Force Bowl (you mentioned a military team as an opponent)?

The Armed Forces Bowl's primary tie-in is Army vs. AAC

If Army wins out against Western Kentucky, Fordham, and Navy, then they will be in; otherwise, that leaves an at large spot to be filled.

I've heard rumors that the Bowl would be very interested in a Houston vs. Rice matchup, which would require a UH win against one of Tulsa, SMU, or Cincinnati to become eligible (I think they'll get it).