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Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #1
Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
The Big 10 stands at 14 and wants more of a presence along the Atlantic Coast.

The SEC stands at 14 and wants more of presence in large population states preferably in the Southeast or Southwest.

The ACC stands at 14 plus partial Notre Dame and needs more football cache.

The Big 12 stands at 10 and doesn't know whether to bail or grow so they just wait.

The PAC stands at 12 and doesn't have many prospects for growth.

ESPN may want to re-sign the Big 10's T1 rights contract.

ESPN may want a % of the PAC network.

FOX may want a % of the PAC network.

FOX may want exclusivity to the Big 10.

The 4 team playoff may or may not wind up with issues.

The North Carolina, Syracuse, and Florida State issues may or may not destabilize the ACC.

The stipend issue may or may not cause a couple of P5 defections.

Lawsuits over images, rights to unionize, and other issues may impact the game.

The lack of networks for the Big 12 and ACC may destabilize them further.

Incompatibility of objectives may continue to prove divisive within the ACC.


All of this we know and have discussed many times. But what really are the likely scenarios that could come to fruition:

I. The Big 12 Expands to 12: Brigham Young and Cincinnati come on board and realignment is over. The best 67 (arguably) are in. Things stay as they are otherwise for a long time.

In this scenario the Big 10 and SEC get stronger and stronger. The ACC becomes a one trick pony with F.S.U. and Clemson struggles to keep up with South Carolina's war chest. Basketball rules supreme in the ACC and discontent grows among the football first schools who are withering on the vine. The Big 12 goes back to being Texas and Oklahoma and an occasional challenger. The PAC stays a solid #3 but at quite a distance in earnings from the Big 10 and SEC.

For long term stability and harmony this situation will be tough. But the networks will be happy. Well, ESPN will be.

II. ESPN increases leverage and lowers overhead:
N.C. State and Virginia Tech go to the SEC, North Carolina and Virginia go to the Big 10. Louisville, Pittsburgh, Miami, Clemson, Florida State, and Georgia Tech go to the Big 12. Maybe Syracuse, Connecticut, Boston College, Duke, and/or Notre Dame become an Eastern branch of the PAC (sort of just kidding here, but who knows?).

ESPN dumps 1/2 of their overhead in the Big 12 bound and Big 10 bound schools. They make more money off of all of them by owning a newly established Network for the Big 12, Tier 1 Big 10 rights, and increase the market sales of the SECN by 19 million. Maybe they even get a stake in the PACN.

III. The Big 12 gets parsed: Oklahoma joins Nebraska in the Big 10 along with Kansas. Or, ESPN and FOX trade rights on Kansas and Oklahoma and Kansas joins the Big 10 and Oklahoma joins the SEC. Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech head to the PAC with Oklahoma State. Two of Baylor/Kansas State/and West Virginia join the SEC if the Sooners go Big 10. If the Sooners join the SEC then one of Baylor/Kansas State join them in the SEC and Iowa State joins Kansas in the Big 10. W.V.U. goes ACC. Or, Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech join the PAC. Kansas and Oklahoma join the Big 10 and Oklahoma State and West Virginia join the SEC.

Winners: ACC reconnects their footprint and gains a football school. The SEC gets a bigger piece of Texas and adds 1 or 2 new states. The Big 10 gets to 16 but without a football school. The PAC gets the states of Texas and Oklahoma for 29 million new viewers.

IV. Radical reconstruction occurs: The P5 moves to a P4 and tries to include the best of the G5 as each moves to around 18 schools.

How this happens could take place in any number of ways. This is a good point for you to insert your own plan for debate.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 05:28 PM by JRsec.)
11-06-2014 03:11 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
Some of the Big Ten wants to move more to the East. For the most part that is Delany. There has been quite a bit of grumbling about the Eastern move within the Big Ten though. The easier move for Delany would be Kansas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma may not be AAU but they are Blue Blood football, strong academically and would insure the Big Ten doesn't move further into the East.


As to what happens? It all is based upon the Big 12. I see two similar scenario's.

Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten in both scenarios.

Texas as an Indie for football and inclusion in the ACC for every other sport. Texas Lacrosse anyone? Baylor tags along due to their Athletic Department.

Oklahoma State to the SEC

Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State to the PAC.


The other members are the negotiating pieces. Does TCU join Texas and Baylor or does the PAC play hardball and team up with an ACC that would rather use WVU to solidify themselves in the Beltway area?

TCU to the PAC or to the ACC

WVU to the ACC if TCU goes to the PAC

WVU to the SEC if TCU goes to the ACC

IF WVU goes to the SEC then ECU to the SEC

If TCU goes to the ACC then something like Houston to the PAC.


That Houston to the PAC pick is why I am starting to lean towards TCU ending up out West again just like when they were with the MWC. I think the PAC would be a little more willing to go with the plan if they end up with Tech and TCU in Texas.

I know you got a thing against ECU but if you can try to push the idea of UConn to the Big Ten then talk of ECU to the SEC is fair game. The SEC moving into North Carolina with the only available quality program is much more likely than the Big Ten moving with UConn into an area they really don't care about as much as you try to say they do. New York City is a no go. Rutgers does enough. UConn wont help that much.
11-06-2014 06:38 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-06-2014 06:38 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Some of the Big Ten wants to move more to the East. For the most part that is Delany. There has been quite a bit of grumbling about the Eastern move within the Big Ten though. The easier move for Delany would be Kansas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma may not be AAU but they are Blue Blood football, strong academically and would insure the Big Ten doesn't move further into the East.


As to what happens? It all is based upon the Big 12. I see two similar scenario's.

Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten in both scenarios.

Texas as an Indie for football and inclusion in the ACC for every other sport. Texas Lacrosse anyone? Baylor tags along due to their Athletic Department.

Oklahoma State to the SEC

Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State to the PAC.


The other members are the negotiating pieces. Does TCU join Texas and Baylor or does the PAC play hardball and team up with an ACC that would rather use WVU to solidify themselves in the Beltway area?

TCU to the PAC or to the ACC

WVU to the ACC if TCU goes to the PAC

WVU to the SEC if TCU goes to the ACC

IF WVU goes to the SEC then ECU to the SEC

If TCU goes to the ACC then something like Houston to the PAC.


That Houston to the PAC pick is why I am starting to lean towards TCU ending up out West again just like when they were with the MWC. I think the PAC would be a little more willing to go with the plan if they end up with Tech and TCU in Texas.

I know you got a thing against ECU but if you can try to push the idea of UConn to the Big Ten then talk of ECU to the SEC is fair game. The SEC moving into North Carolina with the only available quality program is much more likely than the Big Ten moving with UConn into an area they really don't care about as much as you try to say they do. New York City is a no go. Rutgers does enough. UConn wont help that much.

I could argue about Oklahoma and Kansas, but while it's not a slam dunk for the Big 10 there is other stuff to talk about. Oklahoma State and West Virginia is about as good you will get on the SEC settling on something. Both add their own market and pieces of other crucial markets. I could see us doing that. But I really don't think it will come to it. I think Delany does go East and so does the SEC. I think Texas, OU, and Kansas stay put while those that neither the SEC or Big 10 are truly interested in fill out the Big 12. It is interesting though H1 because if the Big 12 permitted Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and T.C.U. to move West they could really help grow their footprint into something quite viable. That opens 10 spots for them to fully utilize ACC additions as well as add schools like Cincinnati and Brigham Young to pick up a demographic and a slither of another large state.

I really believe that the fallout over U.N.C.'s academic fraud may have the result of busting that conference wide open. With the Title IX folks getting serious about F.S.U. over the Winston issue and Syracuse to a lesser degree undergoing an in depth investigation into their athletic program the climate is getting right for Clemson, Florida State, and others to start rumbling again. Quietly things are unpleasant in Beamer world as well. Diminished value for 3 key sports entities could crack the GOR which is built upon stable valuations. A coordinated move by the Big 10 and SEC (with ESPN's silent blessing) would be all it would take. Let the PAC pick up enough to move to 16 (the four mentioned from the Big 12) or 18 with the further additions of New Mexico and Nevada while the Big 12 gets a face lift with a North that has (Boston College, Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Syracuse) an East of (Clemson, East Carolina, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane) and the traditional West of (Baylor, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas) would give them the largest market footprint of all existing conferences and plenty of name brands in hoops and football to go around. Add B.Y.U. and N.D. as hybrids and it is a hell of a gig. The Big 10 and SEC both sit at a very profitable 16 with great deals and the Big 12 makes up ground with 18 and two hybrids. What they lack in cache they make up for in markets versus the SEC and what they lack in academics they make up for in markets versus the Big 10. With the PAC picking up 33 million viewers in three states (provided they don't move to 18 with New Mexico and Nevada). Everyone makes out well. We have 3 conferences of 16, and one of 18 and two hybrids. That's 69 schools in a P4. Everyone wins.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 12:18 AM by JRsec.)
11-06-2014 11:49 PM
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jhawkmvp Offline
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
Interesting. So you think ESPN will land the B1G T1 and decide to broker a break up of the ACC sometime after?

If the B1G added say UVA and UNC (need academic cred badly at this point), the SEC landed VT and NCState, and PAC got TTU, TCU, OSU, and KSU. Then the ND/TX conference scenario I have brought up is likely to unfold as the 4 conferences would probably go with a champs only playoff forcing ND into a conference. The new conference (I'll call it the B16) could be formed by them along with Texas to cushion the blow of giving up independence. The new B16 could be something like:

B16 Southeast - FSU, Miami, Clemson, GT
B16 Northeast - ND, Duke, WVU, Pitt (could also have Syracuse or BC in this spot or Duke's)
B16 Northwest - OU, KU, ISU, Louisville
B16 Southwest - Texas, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (this could be UNM/CSU/Houston/Rice too)

LHN becomes the B16N and greatly expands it's footprint into FL, IN, NC, GA, SC, PA, OH, KY, UT, and LA. Four national football brands (5 if you count Miami), 3 basketball brands, 7 AAU schools and many highly rated USN&WR schools. This is a much stronger conference than the current B12 and can stand on even ground with any conference. Play one rivalry game in conference to maintain OU/UT annual rivalry, lots of possible OOC match-ups that ESPN and FOX would love and pay for.

Possible OOC rivalry games (I'll probably miss some): FSU/UF (SEC), OU/OSU (PAC), OU/NU (B1G), KU/MU (SEC), KU/KSU (PAC), UT/TTU (PAC), UT/A&M (SEC), UT/Arkansas (SEC), Duke/UNC (B1G), GT/UGA (SEC), UL/UK (SEC), Clemson/USC (SEC), Pitt/PSU (B1G), Tulane/LSU (SEC), Baylor/TCU (PAC), ISU/Iowa (B1G), ND/USC (PAC), ND/Stanford (PAC), ND/Purdue (B1G), ND/MSU (B1G).

Make this happen.
11-07-2014 12:56 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 12:56 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  Interesting. So you think ESPN will land the B1G T1 and decide to broker a break up of the ACC sometime after?

If the B1G added say UVA and UNC (need academic cred badly at this point), the SEC landed VT and NCState, and PAC got TTU, TCU, OSU, and KSU. Then the ND/TX conference scenario I have brought up is likely to unfold as the 4 conferences would probably go with a champs only playoff forcing ND into a conference. The new conference (I'll call it the B16) could be formed by them along with Texas to cushion the blow of giving up independence. The new B16 could be something like:

B16 Southeast - FSU, Miami, Clemson, GT
B16 Northeast - ND, Duke, WVU, Pitt (could also have Syracuse or BC in this spot or Duke's)
B16 Northwest - OU, KU, ISU, Louisville
B16 Southwest - Texas, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (this could be UNM/CSU/Houston/Rice too)

LHN becomes the B16N and greatly expands it's footprint into FL, IN, NC, GA, SC, PA, OH, KY, UT, and LA. Four national football brands (5 if you count Miami), 3 basketball brands, 7 AAU schools and many highly rated USN&WR schools. This is a much stronger conference than the current B12 and can stand on even ground with any conference. Play one rivalry game in conference to maintain OU/UT annual rivalry, lots of possible OOC match-ups that ESPN and FOX would love and pay for.

Possible OOC rivalry games (I'll probably miss some): FSU/UF (SEC), OU/OSU (PAC), OU/NU (B1G), KU/MU (SEC), KU/KSU (PAC), UT/TTU (PAC), UT/A&M (SEC), UT/Arkansas (SEC), Duke/UNC (B1G), GT/UGA (SEC), UL/UK (SEC), Clemson/USC (SEC), Pitt/PSU (B1G), Tulane/LSU (SEC), Baylor/TCU (PAC), ISU/Iowa (B1G), ND/USC (PAC), ND/Stanford (PAC), ND/Purdue (B1G), ND/MSU (B1G).

Make this happen.

Seriously ask yourself these questions:

1. If ESPN could garner a larger control of the total college marketplace and lower their overhead at the same time why would they not do it?

Big 10 T1 means FOX foots the majority of the Bill for also ran games on the BTN and FOX takes T2 & 3 games for FX1. ESPN has first dibs on the best of the Big 10 and all it cost them is having to pay less out to North Carolina and Virginia.

2. If ESPN for a nominal investment could enhance their #1 project monetarily why wouldn't they do it?

The SECN gets 19 million new households at $1.30 a throw per month. ESPN gets more advertising money and they still have control of N.C. State and Virginia Tech for a nominal increase.

3. If you could unload a loser of a venture and NET a total T3 deal out of it that included some terrific inventory for little to no more investment would you do it?

Convert the LHN and continue to split the T1 & 2 revenue for the Big 12 (16) with FOX who gets half of the first choices for half of the investment. Meanwhile you convert the loser of the LHN into a premier channel of must see sports for the nominal investment of buying out a few short ranged T3 deals with IMG and Oklahoma's 5 years remaining on a 7 year deal with FOX.

So far you have unloaded 12 of the ACC's 15 schools (meeting the requirement for dissolution of the conference and GOR), losing overhead in all but 2 of them. And leaving only Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest remaining. If the Big 10 wanted to go to 18 with Syracuse and B.C. I doubt the SEC would care.

Meanwhile you have also lowered your overhead in the Big 12 by dumping 4 redundant schools into the lap of the PAC where now they permit you to lease PAC material at an increased rate but also where they assure that the PAC can now earn more from their own advertising money, just as ESPN and FOX will earn from expanding ad coverage for their telecasts. The PAC picks up 35 million viewers and three new states including the big one, Texas. Although it wouldn't be absolutely necessary the PAC may now even wish to sell 25% of its network to both FOX and ESPN.

FOX now has content from the PAC, Big 12, and Big 10 and schools in the Southeast to which they finally have access.

ESPN has lowered overhead and yet maximized content.

Delany has his Eastward expansion.

Slive has his 16 team all Southeast conference and his coveted 19 million viewers more.

Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have their own viable conference. West Virginia has old friends. Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami (along with Louisville) now have a football first conference. And nobody has to put up with the Bermuda Triangle of Snobbery (Duke, U.N.C. & N.C. State with Wake Forest) where the black hole of integrity grows at Chapel Hill.

The PAC finds a way to add revenue and time zones.

4. I ask you, other than a few basketball first schools not getting their way, what's not to like?
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 01:27 AM by JRsec.)
11-07-2014 01:21 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 12:56 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  Interesting. So you think ESPN will land the B1G T1 and decide to broker a break up of the ACC sometime after?

If the B1G added say UVA and UNC (need academic cred badly at this point), the SEC landed VT and NCState, and PAC got TTU, TCU, OSU, and KSU. Then the ND/TX conference scenario I have brought up is likely to unfold as the 4 conferences would probably go with a champs only playoff forcing ND into a conference. The new conference (I'll call it the B16) could be formed by them along with Texas to cushion the blow of giving up independence. The new B16 could be something like:

B16 Southeast - FSU, Miami, Clemson, GT
B16 Northeast - ND, Duke, WVU, Pitt (could also have Syracuse or BC in this spot or Duke's)
B16 Northwest - OU, KU, ISU, Louisville
B16 Southwest - Texas, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (this could be UNM/CSU/Houston/Rice too)

LHN becomes the B16N and greatly expands it's footprint into FL, IN, NC, GA, SC, PA, OH, KY, UT, and LA. Four national football brands (5 if you count Miami), 3 basketball brands, 7 AAU schools and many highly rated USN&WR schools. This is a much stronger conference than the current B12 and can stand on even ground with any conference. Play one rivalry game in conference to maintain OU/UT annual rivalry, lots of possible OOC match-ups that ESPN and FOX would love and pay for.

Possible OOC rivalry games (I'll probably miss some): FSU/UF (SEC), OU/OSU (PAC), OU/NU (B1G), KU/MU (SEC), KU/KSU (PAC), UT/TTU (PAC), UT/A&M (SEC), UT/Arkansas (SEC), Duke/UNC (B1G), GT/UGA (SEC), UL/UK (SEC), Clemson/USC (SEC), Pitt/PSU (B1G), Tulane/LSU (SEC), Baylor/TCU (PAC), ISU/Iowa (B1G), ND/USC (PAC), ND/Stanford (PAC), ND/Purdue (B1G), ND/MSU (B1G).

Make this happen.
You could give up Baylor and West Virginia to the SEC for them to go to 18 and add Colorado State/Cincinnati and Syracuse. The Cuse would be more in line with what ND would want for lacrosse and Denver is a stronger market than New Orleans with Tulane and Cincinnati would be too. Then ND would have a division of lacrosse playing schools.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 01:57 AM by JRsec.)
11-07-2014 01:54 AM
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jhawkmvp Offline
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 01:21 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Seriously ask yourself these questions:

1. If ESPN could garner a larger control of the total college marketplace and lower their overhead at the same time why would they not do it?

Big 10 T1 means FOX foots the majority of the Bill for also ran games on the BTN and FOX takes T2 & 3 games for FX1. ESPN has first dibs on the best of the Big 10 and all it cost them is having to pay less out to North Carolina and Virginia.

2. If ESPN for a nominal investment could enhance their #1 project monetarily why wouldn't they do it?

The SECN gets 19 million new households at $1.30 a throw per month. ESPN gets more advertising money and they still have control of N.C. State and Virginia Tech for a nominal increase.

3. If you could unload a loser of a venture and NET a total T3 deal out of it that included some terrific inventory for little to no more investment would you do it?

Convert the LHN and continue to split the T1 & 2 revenue for the Big 12 (16) with FOX who gets half of the first choices for half of the investment. Meanwhile you convert the loser of the LHN into a premier channel of must see sports for the nominal investment of buying out a few short ranged T3 deals with IMG and Oklahoma's 5 years remaining on a 7 year deal with FOX.

So far you have unloaded 12 of the ACC's 15 schools (meeting the requirement for dissolution of the conference and GOR), losing overhead in all but 2 of them. And leaving only Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest remaining. If the Big 10 wanted to go to 18 with Syracuse and B.C. I doubt the SEC would care.

Meanwhile you have also lowered your overhead in the Big 12 by dumping 4 redundant schools into the lap of the PAC where now they permit you to lease PAC material at an increased rate but also where they assure that the PAC can now earn more from their own advertising money, just as ESPN and FOX will earn from expanding ad coverage for their telecasts. The PAC picks up 35 million viewers and three new states including the big one, Texas. Although it wouldn't be absolutely necessary the PAC may now even wish to sell 25% of its network to both FOX and ESPN.

FOX now has content from the PAC, Big 12, and Big 10 and schools in the Southeast to which they finally have access.

ESPN has lowered overhead and yet maximized content.

Delany has his Eastward expansion.

Slive has his 16 team all Southeast conference and his coveted 19 million viewers more.

Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas have their own viable conference. West Virginia has old friends. Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami (along with Louisville) now have a football first conference. And nobody has to put up with the Bermuda Triangle of Snobbery (Duke, U.N.C. & N.C. State with Wake Forest) where the black hole of integrity grows at Chapel Hill.

The PAC finds a way to add revenue and time zones.

4. I ask you, other than a few basketball first schools not getting their way, what's not to like?

I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 02:20 AM by jhawkmvp.)
11-07-2014 02:04 AM
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leaders in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

*****
Now for those reading the thread we are talking about a P4 loosely arranged like this:

Big 10:
Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
(at 18 Boston College and Duke)

SEC:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
(at 18 West Virginia and Baylor)

Big 12(16):
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Tulane
Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Oklahoma
(at 18 Cincinnati and Syracuse)

PAC 16:
Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern California, Stanford
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
(at 18 New Mexico or a Nevada school)
(if Duke is lost to the Big 10 then Colorado State or East Carolina)
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 02:47 AM by JRsec.)
11-07-2014 02:20 AM
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leader in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

I'm with you on this. However, I never underestimate UNC's influence. They have alums in some key positions to influence what happens in realignment like Delaney with the B1G and Skipper with ESPN. The NCAA should have been up their rear with a scope about this academic scandal a long time ago. If others had not kept digging into that, the NCAA would have gladly looked the other way (and still might in the end). ND has to buy in too, or their considerable influence will be thrown into blocking something like this as well. If UVA defects though, I think UNC gives up on the ACC, like UT would the B12 if OU left. I think UNC/Duke are a package deal.

Probably more likely you see something like this, if it happened, and the SEC took 2 more B12 schools to get to 18:

B1G adds UVA, UNC, Duke, UConn
SEC adds NCST, VT, Baylor, WVU (using your adds)
PAC adds TCU, TTU, OSU, KSU, New Mexico, UNLV/Nevada
B12 adds ND, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Cincinnati, BYU, Louisville, CSU, Tulane/Rice/Houston/SMU/UCF/ECU (take your pick of two for 18 or none and stop at 16). This would be a new conference, under a new moniker, with as many ACC schools (4) and Big East schools (5) as B12 schools (4). New conference, new start, new name. I like this conference less without WVU and Baylor than the previous ones I listed, but it gains (primarily ND & FSU) a lot more than it loses still.

(Edited for clarity and to fix a couple mistakes like listing FSU twice)
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2014 03:49 AM by jhawkmvp.)
11-07-2014 02:37 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:37 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leader in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

I'm with you on this. However, I never underestimate UNC's influence. They have alums in some key positions to influence that happens in realignment like Delaney with the B1G and Skipper with ESPN. The NCAA should have been up their rear with a cope about this academic scandal a long time ago. If others had not keep digging into that the NCAA would have gladly looked the other way (and still might in the end). ND has to buy in too, or their considerable influence will be thrown into blocking something like this as well. If UVA defects though I think UNC goes along though you are right I think Duke goes with them. I think UNC/Duke are a package deal.

Probably more likely you see something like this if it happened and the SEC took 2 more B12 schools to get to 18:

B1G adds UVA, UNC, Duke, UConn
SEC adds NCST, VT, Baylor, WVU (using your adds)
PAC adds TCU, TTU, OSU, KSU, New Mexico, UNLV/Nevada
B12 adds ND, FSU, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Cincinnati, BYU, Louisville, CSU, Tulane/Rice/Houston/SMU/UCF/ECU (take your pick of one)

Seriously, would the Big 10 give Nebraska up to gain Virginia, North Carolina and Duke, three academic giants? Maybe so.

Then your 16 team scenario still works:

Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Tulane
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia

If it could happen that would be even better.
11-07-2014 02:55 AM
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jhawkmvp Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:37 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leader in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

I'm with you on this. However, I never underestimate UNC's influence. They have alums in some key positions to influence that happens in realignment like Delaney with the B1G and Skipper with ESPN. The NCAA should have been up their rear with a cope about this academic scandal a long time ago. If others had not keep digging into that the NCAA would have gladly looked the other way (and still might in the end). ND has to buy in too, or their considerable influence will be thrown into blocking something like this as well. If UVA defects though I think UNC goes along though you are right I think Duke goes with them. I think UNC/Duke are a package deal.

Probably more likely you see something like this if it happened and the SEC took 2 more B12 schools to get to 18:

B1G adds UVA, UNC, Duke, UConn
SEC adds NCST, VT, Baylor, WVU (using your adds)
PAC adds TCU, TTU, OSU, KSU, New Mexico, UNLV/Nevada
B12 adds ND, FSU, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Cincinnati, BYU, Louisville, CSU, Tulane/Rice/Houston/SMU/UCF/ECU (take your pick of one)

Seriously, would the Big 10 give Nebraska up to gain Virginia, North Carolina and Duke, three academic giants? Maybe so.

Then your 16 team scenario still works:

Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Tulane
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia

If it could happen that would be even better.

Yes. That would be a grand slam conference and SEC like at the top. NU is the one school everyone in the B12 seems to want back of the four that left, especially OU, KU, and surprisingly considering the blame NU laid on them, UT. However, the B1G would be nuts to give NU up IMO. NU has some tarnish, but they are in the top 3-4 B1G FB schools and still have national pull.

I wish this would come to pass. I'd love that conference. FB would be awesome and BB would be improved as well.
11-07-2014 03:47 AM
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BewareThePhog Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:37 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leader in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

I'm with you on this. However, I never underestimate UNC's influence. They have alums in some key positions to influence what happens in realignment like Delaney with the B1G and Skipper with ESPN. The NCAA should have been up their rear with a scope about this academic scandal a long time ago. If others had not kept digging into that, the NCAA would have gladly looked the other way (and still might in the end). ND has to buy in too, or their considerable influence will be thrown into blocking something like this as well. If UVA defects though, I think UNC gives up on the ACC, like UT would the B12 if OU left. I think UNC/Duke are a package deal.

Probably more likely you see something like this, if it happened, and the SEC took 2 more B12 schools to get to 18:

B1G adds UVA, UNC, Duke, UConn
SEC adds NCST, VT, Baylor, WVU (using your adds)
PAC adds TCU, TTU, OSU, KSU, New Mexico, UNLV/Nevada
B12 adds ND, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Cincinnati, BYU, Louisville, CSU, Tulane/Rice/Houston/SMU/UCF/ECU (take your pick of two for 18 or none and stop at 16). This would be a new conference, under a new moniker, with as many ACC schools (4) and Big East schools (5) as B12 schools (4). New conference, new start, new name. I like this conference less without WVU and Baylor than the previous ones I listed, but it gains (primarily ND & FSU) a lot more than it loses still.

(Edited for clarity and to fix a couple mistakes like listing FSU twice)
I think that the item I've bolded above would be a key component of this whole thing. In some ways it's a minor thing, but if the new conference isn't presented in any way as the Big 12 or ACC winning over the other, it would help smooth over possible bruised egos and get more buy-in from stakeholders at the schools involved.

Everybody knows the SEC, B1G, and PAC (largely due to geography) are the big dogs, but nobody wants to be the "loser" of a consolidation process. If it's done in a way similar like this where the 3 true powers get value but the remaining P5 schools consolidate in a coherent grouping with a strong new identity of its own, it'd be viewed positively by most parties involved. Of course, the counter-argument is that there is considerable value in established brands, and that it would take time and money to build a new brand even if its components are strong.
11-07-2014 10:57 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 12:56 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  Interesting. So you think ESPN will land the B1G T1 and decide to broker a break up of the ACC sometime after?

If the B1G added say UVA and UNC (need academic cred badly at this point), the SEC landed VT and NCState, and PAC got TTU, TCU, OSU, and KSU. Then the ND/TX conference scenario I have brought up is likely to unfold as the 4 conferences would probably go with a champs only playoff forcing ND into a conference. The new conference (I'll call it the B16) could be formed by them along with Texas to cushion the blow of giving up independence. The new B16 could be something like:

B16 Southeast - FSU, Miami, Clemson, GT
B16 Northeast - ND, Duke, WVU, Pitt (could also have Syracuse or BC in this spot or Duke's)
B16 Northwest - OU, KU, ISU, Louisville
B16 Southwest - Texas, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (this could be UNM/CSU/Houston/Rice too)

LHN becomes the B16N and greatly expands it's footprint into FL, IN, NC, GA, SC, PA, OH, KY, UT, and LA. Four national football brands (5 if you count Miami), 3 basketball brands, 7 AAU schools and many highly rated USN&WR schools. This is a much stronger conference than the current B12 and can stand on even ground with any conference. Play one rivalry game in conference to maintain OU/UT annual rivalry, lots of possible OOC match-ups that ESPN and FOX would love and pay for.

Possible OOC rivalry games (I'll probably miss some): FSU/UF (SEC), OU/OSU (PAC), OU/NU (B1G), KU/MU (SEC), KU/KSU (PAC), UT/TTU (PAC), UT/A&M (SEC), UT/Arkansas (SEC), Duke/UNC (B1G), GT/UGA (SEC), UL/UK (SEC), Clemson/USC (SEC), Pitt/PSU (B1G), Tulane/LSU (SEC), Baylor/TCU (PAC), ISU/Iowa (B1G), ND/USC (PAC), ND/Stanford (PAC), ND/Purdue (B1G), ND/MSU (B1G).

Make this happen.

BYU/Utah (the "Holy War")
11-07-2014 05:03 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:37 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'm with you on this. However, I never underestimate UNC's influence. They have alums in some key positions to influence what happens in realignment like Delaney with the B1G and Skipper with ESPN. The NCAA should have been up their rear with a scope about this academic scandal a long time ago. If others had not kept digging into that, the NCAA would have gladly looked the other way (and still might in the end). ND has to buy in too, or their considerable influence will be thrown into blocking something like this as well. If UVA defects though, I think UNC gives up on the ACC, like UT would the B12 if OU left. I think UNC/Duke are a package deal.

Probably more likely you see something like this, if it happened, and the SEC took 2 more B12 schools to get to 18:

B1G adds UVA, UNC, Duke, UConn
SEC adds NCST, VT, Baylor, WVU (using your adds)
PAC adds TCU, TTU, OSU, KSU, New Mexico, UNLV/Nevada
B12 adds ND, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Cincinnati, BYU, Louisville, CSU, Tulane/Rice/Houston/SMU/UCF/ECU (take your pick of two for 18 or none and stop at 16). This would be a new conference, under a new moniker, with as many ACC schools (4) and Big East schools (5) as B12 schools (4). New conference, new start, new name. I like this conference less without WVU and Baylor than the previous ones I listed, but it gains (primarily ND & FSU) a lot more than it loses still.

(Edited for clarity and to fix a couple mistakes like listing FSU twice)

I agree on UNC's influence. I guess it depends on which faction prevails if there is real movement. You have the "pro-ACC faction" which wants to keep it more or less centered on basketball, and the "pro-SEC faction" which wants the school to not stray from its Southern roots. For the B1G to have any chance they would need to convince the first group, since the second group won't budge. I just don't know if risking Nebraska is worth the effort, though. Maybe the additions to the CIC (and if Johns Hopkins decides to enter the consortium as well) could convince the Nebraska academics to stay. It certainly would help ease any concerns at PSU to have a more Eastern wing in the conference.

I also think that a second Texas school in your proposed new conference would be helpful. Keep Baylor and add Houston and Tulane. You should get something like this:

BYU, ISU, KU, OU, Baylor, UT
ND, Pitt, SU, BC, Cincinnati, Louisville
Houston, Tulane, FSU, Clemson, GT, Miami

The SEC should take in UCF, which would help access new fans in Florida, as well as having a second Florida school for the rest of the conference.

WVU, NC State, VT, SC, GA, FL
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn, Central Florida
TAMU, AR, LSU, MO, MS, Miss St.
11-07-2014 05:41 PM
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Post: #15
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
(11-07-2014 10:57 AM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:37 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leader in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

I'm with you on this. However, I never underestimate UNC's influence. They have alums in some key positions to influence what happens in realignment like Delaney with the B1G and Skipper with ESPN. The NCAA should have been up their rear with a scope about this academic scandal a long time ago. If others had not kept digging into that, the NCAA would have gladly looked the other way (and still might in the end). ND has to buy in too, or their considerable influence will be thrown into blocking something like this as well. If UVA defects though, I think UNC gives up on the ACC, like UT would the B12 if OU left. I think UNC/Duke are a package deal.

Probably more likely you see something like this, if it happened, and the SEC took 2 more B12 schools to get to 18:

B1G adds UVA, UNC, Duke, UConn
SEC adds NCST, VT, Baylor, WVU (using your adds)
PAC adds TCU, TTU, OSU, KSU, New Mexico, UNLV/Nevada
B12 adds ND, Syracuse, Pitt, BC, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Cincinnati, BYU, Louisville, CSU, Tulane/Rice/Houston/SMU/UCF/ECU (take your pick of two for 18 or none and stop at 16). This would be a new conference, under a new moniker, with as many ACC schools (4) and Big East schools (5) as B12 schools (4). New conference, new start, new name. I like this conference less without WVU and Baylor than the previous ones I listed, but it gains (primarily ND & FSU) a lot more than it loses still.

(Edited for clarity and to fix a couple mistakes like listing FSU twice)
I think that the item I've bolded above would be a key component of this whole thing. In some ways it's a minor thing, but if the new conference isn't presented in any way as the Big 12 or ACC winning over the other, it would help smooth over possible bruised egos and get more buy-in from stakeholders at the schools involved.

Everybody knows the SEC, B1G, and PAC (largely due to geography) are the big dogs, but nobody wants to be the "loser" of a consolidation process. If it's done in a way similar like this where the 3 true powers get value but the remaining P5 schools consolidate in a coherent grouping with a strong new identity of its own, it'd be viewed positively by most parties involved. Of course, the counter-argument is that there is considerable value in established brands, and that it would take time and money to build a new brand even if its components are strong.

The PAC isn't really a big dog. It has considerable stability due to geography but the failures that it had in it's very public attempts to tear apart the Big 12 show that it isn't exactly a big dog. Honestly they shouldn't have been so public with their attempt. When looking at the actions of the likes of the Big Ten, SEC and even to some degree with the ACC...the PAC's methodology looks very amateur.

That means desperation. The PAC was desperate because they knew that when the Eastern conferences fully compete, they wouldn't get the best additions from The Big 12. They tried to jump the gun.
11-07-2014 06:12 PM
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CintiFan Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
Here's my take on it:

The key to realignment before the GORs expire is creating an alliance between Texas and ND. Texas wants to be king of its own conference, but the Big 12 is vulnerable to being picked apart when the GORs are up for renewal. ND wants to be independent for football, but recognizes that joining a conference may be inevitable as the football playoffs evolve. If they consider their options, they will realize that joining forces as founding members to create a new power conference will be a face-saving way to resolve their dilemma. If they wait until the GORs expire, all hell breaks loose and they lose any control over the process.

The impetus for that alliance may be the BIG media negotiations. Every good negotiator knows how to play one suitor (ESPN) against the other (FOX) to get what they really want and, besides a ****load of dollars, what Delaney wants is Virginia and North Carolina, at least, and that probably doesn't happen unless the ACC dissolves. The way to accomplish that feat is to help ND and Texas see the benefits of creating a new power conference that can rival the SEC in football and both the SEC and BIG in wealth, and creating a place the other ACC teams want to move to.

There are lots of possible permutations, but the basic problem to solve for is finding a home for at least 8 of the current Big 12 teams and at least 12 of the current ACC teams in order to dissolve the conferences and get around the GORs. As part of that solution, the SEC and PAC need to be involved too.

My solution is for conferences to go to 16 or 18 teams, except perhaps the PAC which may lack enough quality options. That allows most to add another team or two not currently in the PT5 if they want and, assuming autonomy for the P5/4 conferences, have two playoff games and a championship game for each conference. Conference champs would get matched up in New Years Day bowls, with the winners meeting for the national championship a week later. This keeps the bulk of the post-season revenue under the control of the conferences (compared to an 8 team playoff where one or more conferences may get an outsized share).

Here's where I think everyone goes:

BIG: UVA and UNC are Delaney's top picks. I think the BIG tries to get to 18 though, and add Kansas to appease Nebraska and bolster their western end and Duke to make the UNC move go more smoothly (although I'd personally prefer Kansas and OKlahoma).

SEC: VTech and NC State are the SEC's top targets to the east. The SEC would love to get Oklahoma, but that's not likely if Oklahoma can stay with Texas in the new conference, so maybe the SEC stays at 16 unless it wants a second Texas school, either TCU or Baylor, and a partner (maybe WVU).

PAC: The PAC has little leverage other than to say no, but to sweeten the deal I think ESPN and Fox each offer a boatload of money to buy a piece of the PAC network. Iowa State and Kansas State would head west to join Colorado and Utah. The PAC stays at 14 unless they want to add New Mexico, Nevada or some other non-P5 teams to get to 16. Texas Tech would be a target but a long shot to move, I think.

New Power Conference; With the states of Virginia and North Carolina taken, the conference focuses on a north/south/southwest alignment around its three top schools, and adds a non-P5 team to get to 18:

North: Notre Dame, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, WVU

South: FSU, Miami, GTech, Clemson, Wake, and Navy/ECU/?

Southwest: Texas, OK, OSU, TTech, Baylor, TCU

I think ESPN and Fox might decide to drive the realigment because ultimately, with a new P4 arrangement including a ND/Texas/FSU conference, they can earn more $ than they do with the current Big 12 and ACC. Imagine the ratings for ND/TX/FSU games, with semi-finals and finals probably featuring them again. Much better than an FSU-UVA championship and no Big 12 championship.
11-08-2014 12:37 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
(11-08-2014 12:37 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  New Power Conference; With the states of Virginia and North Carolina taken, the conference focuses on a north/south/southwest alignment around its three top schools, and adds a non-P5 team to get to 18:

North: Notre Dame, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, WVU

South: FSU, Miami, GTech, Clemson, Wake, and Navy/ECU/?

Southwest: Texas, OK, OSU, TTech, Baylor, TCU

How about slotting Louisville into the South division and putting Cincinnati into the North division? That way you avoid having to have football-only members or double dipping in the Eastern states apart from Florida.

North: ND, Cincinnati, WVU, Pitt, Cuse, BC

South: FSU, Miami, Louisville, Wake, GT, Clemson

Southwest: UT, OU, OSU, TT, BU, TCU


I like this much better than sending a couple of Texas teams to the West or creating geographically disparate divisions. No need for Tulane, Houston, UCF or ECU. Wake is there to make ND even more comfortable. Lastly, no ACC school is left behind, so no one would threaten to vote "No".

The question becomes will there be a desire to do such a thing.
11-08-2014 04:58 AM
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CintiFan Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
(11-08-2014 04:58 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(11-08-2014 12:37 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  New Power Conference; With the states of Virginia and North Carolina taken, the conference focuses on a north/south/southwest alignment around its three top schools, and adds a non-P5 team to get to 18:

North: Notre Dame, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, WVU

South: FSU, Miami, GTech, Clemson, Wake, and Navy/ECU/?

Southwest: Texas, OK, OSU, TTech, Baylor, TCU

How about slotting Louisville into the South division and putting Cincinnati into the North division? That way you avoid having to have football-only members or double dipping in the Eastern states apart from Florida.

North: ND, Cincinnati, WVU, Pitt, Cuse, BC

South: FSU, Miami, Louisville, Wake, GT, Clemson

Southwest: UT, OU, OSU, TT, BU, TCU


I like this much better than sending a couple of Texas teams to the West or creating geographically disparate divisions. No need for Tulane, Houston, UCF or ECU. Wake is there to make ND even more comfortable. Lastly, no ACC school is left behind, so no one would threaten to vote "No".

The question becomes will there be a desire to do such a thing.

That works, and it gives Cincinnati a seat at the table, which I like. There's been some talk that Wake might not want to, or be able to, keep up with the other big schools and could voluntarily drop down into another conference. Maybe Navy or U.Conn joins then.

Texas and ND need to believe there is a clear and unstoppable event or development that forces them to re-think their futures. ESPN and Fox money, or the threat to not pay the big bucks in the future, might do it.
11-08-2014 07:58 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
(11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote:  I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.

The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.

East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)

Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.

Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.

Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.

If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.

What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leaders in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.

And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"

*****
Now for those reading the thread we are talking about a P4 loosely arranged like this:

Big 10:
Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
(at 18 Boston College and Duke)

SEC:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
(at 18 West Virginia and Baylor)

Big 12(16):
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Tulane
Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Oklahoma
(at 18 Cincinnati and Syracuse)

PAC 16:
Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern California, Stanford
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
(at 18 New Mexico or a Nevada school)
(if Duke is lost to the Big 10 then Colorado State or East Carolina)

So Let's refresh this a bit. At 16 per conference we have:

Big 10:
Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

At 18 per conference the Big 10 looks like this:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame (or Syracuse), Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
**********************************************************************

SEC 16:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M

SEC 18:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Baylor, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M
**********************************************************************

Big 16:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virignia
Baylor, Birgham Young, Texas, Tulane
Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Oklahoma

Big 18:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse (or Notre Dame)
Clemson, East Carolina/Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane
Brigham Young, Colorado State/Rice, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
**********************************************************************

PAC 16:
Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern California, Stanford
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

PAC 18:
Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Utah
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Nevada, New Mexico, Southern California
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
**************************************************************************

Okay let's now use this as a starting points for conversation. Which do you prefer the 16 or 18 team models and why or why not
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2014 02:06 AM by JRsec.)
11-09-2014 02:00 AM
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
Why not have in your 16 team SEC scenario, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Kentucky and Vanderbilt together? That way both Tennessee and Virginia Tech are best utilized.

You put the Alabama schools and Mississippi schools together. You put Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and NC State together. Then you have your last four schools together out West.
11-09-2014 03:00 AM
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