JRsec
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RE: Okay, So What Happens Next? Permutations for Big 12 & ACC with Discussion:
(11-10-2014 08:43 AM)XLance Wrote: (11-09-2014 11:25 PM)JRsec Wrote: (11-09-2014 02:00 AM)JRsec Wrote: (11-07-2014 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote: (11-07-2014 02:04 AM)jhawkmvp Wrote: I'd be happy with this and ESPN probably would as well since they would own the ND/UT conference's network and the B1G T1. Just not sure the ACC core VA and NC schools would want it at all or ND if they did not get the NE exposure they wanted. I think the B12 little brothers might like getting out of the shadow of their bigger brothers as well, as long as the games continued OOC. I think that FOX might be the one getting 50% of the PACN, while ESPN gets the B16N in this scenario. I think ESPN would do that trade-off in a New York minute to have the combo of ND and TX and a handful of other national FB and BB brands.
The B12 going bigger to add schools in the NE where ND has it's strongest following, outside of Chicago, might be likely though. Assuming they wanted more of a NE presence and the B1G did not block it by offering first, you might have a big 18.
East: ND, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, Duke, Miami (Duke and Miami would prefer this division I think and all private but for Pitt which is semi-private)
South: FSU, Clemson, GT, WV, Louisville, Cincinnati
West: Texas, OU, KU, ISU, Baylor, BYU, Tulane (could be replaced by many schools if ESPN wanted)
Every division would have a TX or FL school for recruiting. ND gets a division I think they would love. OU and UT stay in the same division. Adds another BB power. Adds NY and MA into the new conference network. Either the 16 or 18 would be a fun conference to follow. Eighteen would probably be ND's favorite so would probably be the pick.
Take a deep breath and answer this sobering question, "In the great scheme of things will North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia be missed in college football?" No.
Would North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia like to give up football and join the Big East? No.
If the other ACC schools get better homes in the SEC and Big 12 what better basketball conference could North Carolina and Virginia join other than the Big 12 where they are reunited with Maryland.
What I'm saying that is sobering here is that North Carolina's, Duke's, and Virginia's gravitas is in academics (U.N.C. presently suffering here) and in hoops. They carry no weight in football matters. The attendance leaders in the ACC are Clemson, F.S.U., Virginia Tech and N.C. State in that order. Their only power in this matter is in their heads. In the end they will shut up, take the money, be thankful for the basketball, and in Carolina's case be thankful for association with the CIC. Duke may or may not be happy in the Big 12, but heck if they Virginia and UNC insisted upon it maybe the Big 10 gives up their only non AAU member to the Big 12 so that Duke can join.
And the question I've posed elsewhere is this, "If you are ESPN do you want to build a viable football conference by placing two powerhouses like N.D. and Texas on the periphery of a major basketball core, or do you put other football teams around a core of two football giants like Oklahoma and Texas?"
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Now for those reading the thread we are talking about a P4 loosely arranged like this:
Big 10:
Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
(at 18 Boston College and Duke)
SEC:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
(at 18 West Virginia and Baylor)
Big 12(16):
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Baylor, Brigham Young, Texas, Tulane
Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Oklahoma
(at 18 Cincinnati and Syracuse)
PAC 16:
Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern California, Stanford
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
(at 18 New Mexico or a Nevada school)
(if Duke is lost to the Big 10 then Colorado State or East Carolina)
So Let's refresh this a bit. At 16 per conference we have:
Big 10:
Maryland, North Carolina, Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
At 18 per conference the Big 10 looks like this:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame (or Syracuse), Penn State, Virginia
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
**********************************************************************
SEC 16:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
SEC 18:
Kentucky, N.C. State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Arkansas, Baylor, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M
**********************************************************************
Big 16:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, West Virignia
Baylor, Birgham Young, Texas, Tulane
Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Oklahoma
Big 18:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse (or Notre Dame)
Clemson, East Carolina/Wake Forest, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Tulane
Brigham Young, Colorado State/Rice, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas
**********************************************************************
PAC 16:
Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern California, Stanford
Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
PAC 18:
Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech, Utah
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal Los Angeles, Nevada, New Mexico, Southern California
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
**************************************************************************
Okay let's now use this as a starting points for conversation. Which do you prefer the 16 or 18 team models and why or why not
Now let's compare the radical reconstruction of a New Big 12 with a simple dissolution of the ACC with no Big 12 placement to create markets:
Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Virginia
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
(Additions: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia)
SEC:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, N.C. State, South Carolina, Wake Forest
Alabama, Kentucky, Miami, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M
(Additions: Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
Big 12:
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Texas, T.C.U.
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
(Additions: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Cincinnati)
PAC:
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Southern California, Utah
(No Additions)
Total Membership of P4: 66
Now Compare that to trying to go to three conferences of 18 out of the Big 12
Big 10:
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas
SEC:
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
ACC:
Boston College, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Cincinnati, Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Wake Forest
PAC:
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Southern California, Utah
In are Cincinnati and Connecticut. Out is T.C.U. (unless the PAC takes them.) And this distribution doesn't include what Texas might want to do or whether or not the SEC and ESPN would sit back and let all 3 of the jewels of the Big 12 go to the Big 10 just to meet their AAU requirements.
Thoughts and discussion?
IMO the division of the ACC into the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC yields 3 conferences of relative equal value. Therefore it brings stability. The PAC's worth is not as important because they truly are protected by geography.
It is also my opinion that the division of the Big 12 would create relatively inequitable conferences and just eventually lead to further instability and further moves. There aren't enough quality academic institutions for the Big 10 and SEC and the ACC is too remote to be very active in the division.
Therefore it is my conclusion that if Realignment is to come to a lengthy end it would be best for the parsing of the ACC to be involved and better to build around the core of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas than to throw those schools who desire to stay together into a single conference thereby creating yet another unstable environment.
So from my point of view the question is whether you thin the concentration of Texas schools from the current Big 12 and look to replace them with multiple market additions, or do you just simply divide out the ACC?
JR, your reasoning is as solid as a rock IF you were only talking about college football. BUT since you and I know that this thing is really in the hands of the networks (ESPN) and they have a different agenda.
Not only are the networks concerned with inventory from Labor Day through Thanksgiving Weekend (plus the bowl season), they are also concerned about inventory in other seasons of the year. Different conferences have been constructed to compete in sports other than football.
With increased competition from the NFL (see Thursday night games), college sports might have to take a different marketing strategy in order to survive in the marketplace. Football may drive the bus for now, but the networks have hedged their bets to diversify their holdings in college sports franchises for the future.
The basketball would still be there, just rearranged a bit. Besides, it's basketball that is trending down everywhere.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2014 01:47 PM by JRsec.)
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