It's regular season SOS. Georgia was 8-4 end of the season and finished #22. A&M was #21. Alabama was #3. Missouri #8. FSU with a loss will not have the resume that Auburn had. Clemson won't get much higher than maybe 15. ND same thing. So Auburn has 2 top 10 wins and 4 top 25 wins. FSU with 0 top 10 wins and maybe 3 top 25 wins. FSU's problem is they won't be judged end of the year after the bowls. It's end of the regular season.

(11-03-2014 02:00 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 01:50 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 01:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  we'll learn more about FSU this weekend after Notre Dame plays Arizona St..

pretty much right now though- FSU has to win out. With SEC, Oregon, TCU and Mich St- probably not going to beat out any of those 4 teams.

I still don't think you'll know more about FSU due to the ND/Ariz St game. Football is a game of matchups so some teams will match up better with others. It wouldn't surprise me if ASU won by 2 TD's.

FSU gets the kitchen sink thrown at them every week. They've taken on the role of public enemy #1 so it's hard to compare there games against everyone else's.

I'm not convinced that FSU is a top 5 team or that Notre Dame is a top 10. I think FSU's best win so far is Louisville, not Notre Dame. I think FSU will have at least one loss going into the playoffs and Notre Dame could have as many as three.

Since I believe Alabama will beat Mississippi State at home. I think the top four teams will end up being:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Michigan State
4. Mississippi State/TCU

If TCU doesn't drop another one, then they will get in, but I think they will lose one down the stretch, allowing an 11-1 Mississippi State to get back in.

I am not convinced that you know more about what you are talking about than me or any other random bozo on a message board.

That is why I do not play this game. There are too many games left to be played and this thread is entirely theory, speculation and conjecture, with each poster's built in bias added in for good measure.

I think a few spots are pretty clear cut....
1 Florida St. If they win out, they are in. Period...
2 SEC Champ. Pretty much unless it's a 9-3 Florida team or 11-2 Missouri team, they are in.
3 Oregon. It's pretty tough to see them out if they win out. Especially given the win over Michigan St.

TCU I think is a very interesting team. If they win this week, they are 8-1 with 3 games left vs Texas Tech, Texas, and Iowa St. So pretty easy to get to 11-1. I think it'd be between them and Michigan St for the last spot. ND as well- though with the schedule- not sure that ND would have enough juice.

(11-03-2014 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's regular season SOS. Georgia was 8-4 end of the season and finished #22. A&M was #21. Alabama was #3. Missouri #8. FSU with a loss will not have the resume that Auburn had. Clemson won't get much higher than maybe 15. ND same thing. So Auburn has 2 top 10 wins and 4 top 25 wins. FSU with 0 top 10 wins and maybe 3 top 25 wins. FSU's problem is they won't be judged end of the year after the bowls. It's end of the regular season.

So why won't Clemson get much higher than 15? Why can't ND stay top 10? Why can't Louisville or Duke get into the top 25?

(11-03-2014 03:32 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 02:00 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 01:50 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 01:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  we'll learn more about FSU this weekend after Notre Dame plays Arizona St..

pretty much right now though- FSU has to win out. With SEC, Oregon, TCU and Mich St- probably not going to beat out any of those 4 teams.

I still don't think you'll know more about FSU due to the ND/Ariz St game. Football is a game of matchups so some teams will match up better with others. It wouldn't surprise me if ASU won by 2 TD's.

FSU gets the kitchen sink thrown at them every week. They've taken on the role of public enemy #1 so it's hard to compare there games against everyone else's.

I'm not convinced that FSU is a top 5 team or that Notre Dame is a top 10. I think FSU's best win so far is Louisville, not Notre Dame. I think FSU will have at least one loss going into the playoffs and Notre Dame could have as many as three.

Since I believe Alabama will beat Mississippi State at home. I think the top four teams will end up being:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Michigan State
4. Mississippi State/TCU

If TCU doesn't drop another one, then they will get in, but I think they will lose one down the stretch, allowing an 11-1 Mississippi State to get back in.

I am not convinced that you know more about what you are talking about than me or any other random bozo on a message board.

That is why I do not play this game. There are too many games left to be played and this thread is entirely theory, speculation and conjecture, with each poster's built in bias added in for good measure.

Of course. My response, like most others', is an opinion. Whether it is an educated opinion or just the ramblings of a "random bozo," I will leave to others to determine. But I am afraid you may have interpreted my statement that I was not convinced Notre Dame was a top 10 team as a negative dig of the Irish. It was simply an incomplete observation based on what I have seen thus far. I would not want you to think it was an anti-Notre Dame comment. You may recall that I have stated here before that I believe that college football is better when there is a strong -- and independent -- Notre Dame.

While I have spent a good deal of my life as a coach and sports writer, I don't think my ability to analyze the games we have seen is necessarily any better than anyone else's here. There are posters on this site I have particularly high regard for, including you. So it was just an opinion of what things look like to me in this snapshot in time.

(11-03-2014 05:05 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's regular season SOS. Georgia was 8-4 end of the season and finished #22. A&M was #21. Alabama was #3. Missouri #8. FSU with a loss will not have the resume that Auburn had. Clemson won't get much higher than maybe 15. ND same thing. So Auburn has 2 top 10 wins and 4 top 25 wins. FSU with 0 top 10 wins and maybe 3 top 25 wins. FSU's problem is they won't be judged end of the year after the bowls. It's end of the regular season.

So why won't Clemson get much higher than 15? Why can't ND stay top 10? Why can't Louisville or Duke get into the top 25?

Are you talking this year or last year? It gets so confusing.

(11-03-2014 05:08 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 05:05 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's regular season SOS. Georgia was 8-4 end of the season and finished #22. A&M was #21. Alabama was #3. Missouri #8. FSU with a loss will not have the resume that Auburn had. Clemson won't get much higher than maybe 15. ND same thing. So Auburn has 2 top 10 wins and 4 top 25 wins. FSU with 0 top 10 wins and maybe 3 top 25 wins. FSU's problem is they won't be judged end of the year after the bowls. It's end of the regular season.

So why won't Clemson get much higher than 15? Why can't ND stay top 10? Why can't Louisville or Duke get into the top 25?

Are you talking this yer or last year? It gets so confusing.

We're talking this year now. Auburn gets a pass for having close calls last year but FSU this year does not.

(11-03-2014 05:05 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's regular season SOS. Georgia was 8-4 end of the season and finished #22. A&M was #21. Alabama was #3. Missouri #8. FSU with a loss will not have the resume that Auburn had. Clemson won't get much higher than maybe 15. ND same thing. So Auburn has 2 top 10 wins and 4 top 25 wins. FSU with 0 top 10 wins and maybe 3 top 25 wins. FSU's problem is they won't be judged end of the year after the bowls. It's end of the regular season.

So why won't Clemson get much higher than 15? Why can't ND stay top 10? Why can't Louisville or Duke get into the top 25?

Who has Clemson beat? If Louisville gets in the top 25, that's Clemson's only top 25 win. ND if they lose again will drop some- probably them and Clemson would be right around the same. And- either Louisville or ND will lose(as they play each other) guaranteed. So either a top 6-8 ND, 15 Clemson, and maybe Duke or 15 ND, 15 Clemson, 20 Louisville and maybe Duke.

No matter what FSU won't have the resume end of the regular season that Auburn had last year.

(11-03-2014 05:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 05:05 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's regular season SOS. Georgia was 8-4 end of the season and finished #22. A&M was #21. Alabama was #3. Missouri #8. FSU with a loss will not have the resume that Auburn had. Clemson won't get much higher than maybe 15. ND same thing. So Auburn has 2 top 10 wins and 4 top 25 wins. FSU with 0 top 10 wins and maybe 3 top 25 wins. FSU's problem is they won't be judged end of the year after the bowls. It's end of the regular season.

So why won't Clemson get much higher than 15? Why can't ND stay top 10? Why can't Louisville or Duke get into the top 25?

Who has Clemson beat? If Louisville gets in the top 25, that's Clemson's only top 25 win. ND if they lose again will drop some- probably them and Clemson would be right around the same. And- either Louisville or ND will lose(as they play each other) guaranteed. So either a top 6-8 ND, 15 Clemson, and maybe Duke or 15 ND, 15 Clemson, 20 Louisville and maybe Duke.

No matter what FSU won't have the resume end of the regular season that Auburn had last year.

So Auburn can win on hail mary's, missed FG returns, and give up 40+ points twice , lose by 2 TD's and somehow that's okay because their schedule was a little tougher. I still don't see how they get a pass and FSU this year does not.

Auburn's SOS last year pre-bowls was #23 in AH

Florida St's SOS right now is #43. It won't get better with their 5 remaining games- 4-5 Virginia, 6-3 Miami, 6-3 BC, 4-3 Florida, and then acc title game. Definitely won't make up 20 spots.

Also a problem FSU would have is the loss they would have would not be anywhere near as good as the loss Auburn had. LSU was #18 last year. Any of those teams that beat them(outside of Duke) would be worse than that. And if they lose to Duke, they have the not a champion problem that totally knocks them out.

In another computer- which is after the bowls- Massey- Auburn had the #3 SOS last year. I don't like to compare because it's got the game with FSU which obviously helped Auburn out some. But still probably about #10. FSU pre-CCG is #32.

(11-03-2014 06:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn's SOS last year pre-bowls was #23 in AH

Florida St's SOS right now is #43. It won't get better with their 5 remaining games- 4-5 Virginia, 6-3 Miami, 6-3 BC, 4-3 Florida, and then acc title game. Definitely won't make up 20 spots.

Also a problem FSU would have is the loss they would have would not be anywhere near as good as the loss Auburn had. LSU was #18 last year. Any of those teams that beat them(outside of Duke) would be worse than that. And if they lose to Duke, they have the not a champion problem that totally knocks them out.

In another computer- which is after the bowls- Massey- Auburn had the #3 SOS last year. I don't like to compare because it's got the game with FSU which obviously helped Auburn out some. But still probably about #10. FSU pre-CCG is #32.

Is there really that big of a difference between #23 and #43 SOS? Not in the grand scheme of things. There are good teams on both schedules. FSU is also dealing with something no one else is....24 game winning streak. There is a reason why only 24 teams in history have a longer streak. It's hard to do.

(11-03-2014 06:07 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn's SOS last year pre-bowls was #23 in AH

Florida St's SOS right now is #43. It won't get better with their 5 remaining games- 4-5 Virginia, 6-3 Miami, 6-3 BC, 4-3 Florida, and then acc title game. Definitely won't make up 20 spots.

Also a problem FSU would have is the loss they would have would not be anywhere near as good as the loss Auburn had. LSU was #18 last year. Any of those teams that beat them(outside of Duke) would be worse than that. And if they lose to Duke, they have the not a champion problem that totally knocks them out.

In another computer- which is after the bowls- Massey- Auburn had the #3 SOS last year. I don't like to compare because it's got the game with FSU which obviously helped Auburn out some. But still probably about #10. FSU pre-CCG is #32.

Is there really that big of a difference between #23 and #43 SOS? Not in the grand scheme of things. There are good teams on both schedules. FSU is also dealing with something no one else is....24 game winning streak. There is a reason why only 24 teams in history have a longer streak. It's hard to do.

Yes there is. And the timing of the loss would be much worse. And I'm sorry but 2 top 10 wins would easily trump 2 #15 ish type wins.

Also- there were only 6 major 0/1 loss teams last year, which helped Auburn out. They had beaten Alabama. Michigan St had just beaten Ohio St. Auburn was clearly #2 end of the year.

My point stands. If SEC, Oregon, Mich St, and TCU win out- and FSU loses- FSU is out of the playoffs.

at

(11-03-2014 05:06 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 03:32 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 02:00 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 01:50 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 01:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  we'll learn more about FSU this weekend after Notre Dame plays Arizona St..

pretty much right now though- FSU has to win out. With SEC, Oregon, TCU and Mich St- probably not going to beat out any of those 4 teams.

I still don't think you'll know more about FSU due to the ND/Ariz St game. Football is a game of matchups so some teams will match up better with others. It wouldn't surprise me if ASU won by 2 TD's.

FSU gets the kitchen sink thrown at them every week. They've taken on the role of public enemy #1 so it's hard to compare there games against everyone else's.

I'm not convinced that FSU is a top 5 team or that Notre Dame is a top 10. I think FSU's best win so far is Louisville, not Notre Dame. I think FSU will have at least one loss going into the playoffs and Notre Dame could have as many as three.

Since I believe Alabama will beat Mississippi State at home. I think the top four teams will end up being:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Michigan State
4. Mississippi State/TCU

If TCU doesn't drop another one, then they will get in, but I think they will lose one down the stretch, allowing an 11-1 Mississippi State to get back in.

I am not convinced that you know more about what you are talking about than me or any other random bozo on a message board.

That is why I do not play this game. There are too many games left to be played and this thread is entirely theory, speculation and conjecture, with each poster's built in bias added in for good measure.

Of course. My response, like most others', is an opinion. Whether it is an educated opinion or just the ramblings of a "random bozo," I will leave to others to determine. But I am afraid you may have interpreted my statement that I was not convinced Notre Dame was a top 10 team as a negative dig of the Irish. It was simply an incomplete observation based on what I have seen thus far. I would not want you to think it was an anti-Notre Dame comment. You may recall that I have stated here before that I believe that college football is better when there is a strong -- and independent -- Notre Dame.

While I have spent a good deal of my life as a coach and sports writer, I don't think my ability to analyze the games we have seen is necessarily any better than anyone else's here. There are posters on this site I have particularly high regard for, including you. So it was just an opinion of what things look like to me in this snapshot in time.

Sorry, Zombie. That came off as harsher than it was meant.

If you will look back, I said "me or any other bozo on the internet". I include myself as such a bozo.

Yes, I took it as a shot at ND but my overall point is that this type of playoff discussion is no more valid than when Stever was telling everyone two years ago that ND had no shot at a BCS championship game with Kansas State, Alabama, etc... ahead of them.

My response then is why engage in such absolutist statements when there are too many moving parts and that is my response now.

LSU may beat Alabama, ND may lose to Arizona State, Ole Miss and Alabama may beat Mississippi State, Auburn may beat Alabama, etc...etc..etc...

Anyway, apologies for a post that was harsher to you than I meant it to be. Take care.

(11-03-2014 02:17 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Bama has played an incredibly weak schedule so far, and already lost to the toughest team on that schedule....time to play the other tough teams in the SEC West now.....LSU, Miss State, and Auburn in this last stretch....good luck with that

This is true and the reason why the committee doesn't have the Tide higher than #6. But like you just pointed out, if Bama beats those three teams, they will in the Top 4 with no problem but will still need to win the SEC CG to clinch a playoff birth. But me thinks Bama loses to LSU this weekend.

To me for Bama- this is the big game. The other 2 games are in Tuscaloosa. I think bama has gotten better as the year has gone along.

(11-03-2014 06:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:07 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn's SOS last year pre-bowls was #23 in AH

Florida St's SOS right now is #43. It won't get better with their 5 remaining games- 4-5 Virginia, 6-3 Miami, 6-3 BC, 4-3 Florida, and then acc title game. Definitely won't make up 20 spots.

Also a problem FSU would have is the loss they would have would not be anywhere near as good as the loss Auburn had. LSU was #18 last year. Any of those teams that beat them(outside of Duke) would be worse than that. And if they lose to Duke, they have the not a champion problem that totally knocks them out.

In another computer- which is after the bowls- Massey- Auburn had the #3 SOS last year. I don't like to compare because it's got the game with FSU which obviously helped Auburn out some. But still probably about #10. FSU pre-CCG is #32.

Is there really that big of a difference between #23 and #43 SOS? Not in the grand scheme of things. There are good teams on both schedules. FSU is also dealing with something no one else is....24 game winning streak. There is a reason why only 24 teams in history have a longer streak. It's hard to do.

Yes there is. And the timing of the loss would be much worse. And I'm sorry but 2 top 10 wins would easily trump 2 #15 ish type wins.

Also- there were only 6 major 0/1 loss teams last year, which helped Auburn out. They had beaten Alabama. Michigan St had just beaten Ohio St. Auburn was clearly #2 end of the year.

My point stands. If SEC, Oregon, Mich St, and TCU win out- and FSU loses- FSU is out of the playoffs.

Really? So can you explain why Alabama is ranked so high? Who have they beaten to justify their ranking?

(11-03-2014 06:19 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:07 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn's SOS last year pre-bowls was #23 in AH

Florida St's SOS right now is #43. It won't get better with their 5 remaining games- 4-5 Virginia, 6-3 Miami, 6-3 BC, 4-3 Florida, and then acc title game. Definitely won't make up 20 spots.

Also a problem FSU would have is the loss they would have would not be anywhere near as good as the loss Auburn had. LSU was #18 last year. Any of those teams that beat them(outside of Duke) would be worse than that. And if they lose to Duke, they have the not a champion problem that totally knocks them out.

In another computer- which is after the bowls- Massey- Auburn had the #3 SOS last year. I don't like to compare because it's got the game with FSU which obviously helped Auburn out some. But still probably about #10. FSU pre-CCG is #32.

Is there really that big of a difference between #23 and #43 SOS? Not in the grand scheme of things. There are good teams on both schedules. FSU is also dealing with something no one else is....24 game winning streak. There is a reason why only 24 teams in history have a longer streak. It's hard to do.

Yes there is. And the timing of the loss would be much worse. And I'm sorry but 2 top 10 wins would easily trump 2 #15 ish type wins.

Also- there were only 6 major 0/1 loss teams last year, which helped Auburn out. They had beaten Alabama. Michigan St had just beaten Ohio St. Auburn was clearly #2 end of the year.

My point stands. If SEC, Oregon, Mich St, and TCU win out- and FSU loses- FSU is out of the playoffs.

Really? So can you explain why Alabama is ranked so high? Who have they beaten to justify their ranking?

Alabama beat WVU this year- and a lot of the big games still left. (last year they were a clear #3). If you are talking about last year- Alabama had wins over Va Tech, LSU, and Texas A&M- and 1 of only 6 teams with 1 or fewer losses... End of the day- that's a huge factor.

(11-03-2014 06:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:19 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:07 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 06:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Auburn's SOS last year pre-bowls was #23 in AH

Florida St's SOS right now is #43. It won't get better with their 5 remaining games- 4-5 Virginia, 6-3 Miami, 6-3 BC, 4-3 Florida, and then acc title game. Definitely won't make up 20 spots.

Also a problem FSU would have is the loss they would have would not be anywhere near as good as the loss Auburn had. LSU was #18 last year. Any of those teams that beat them(outside of Duke) would be worse than that. And if they lose to Duke, they have the not a champion problem that totally knocks them out.

In another computer- which is after the bowls- Massey- Auburn had the #3 SOS last year. I don't like to compare because it's got the game with FSU which obviously helped Auburn out some. But still probably about #10. FSU pre-CCG is #32.

Is there really that big of a difference between #23 and #43 SOS? Not in the grand scheme of things. There are good teams on both schedules. FSU is also dealing with something no one else is....24 game winning streak. There is a reason why only 24 teams in history have a longer streak. It's hard to do.

Yes there is. And the timing of the loss would be much worse. And I'm sorry but 2 top 10 wins would easily trump 2 #15 ish type wins.

Also- there were only 6 major 0/1 loss teams last year, which helped Auburn out. They had beaten Alabama. Michigan St had just beaten Ohio St. Auburn was clearly #2 end of the year.

My point stands. If SEC, Oregon, Mich St, and TCU win out- and FSU loses- FSU is out of the playoffs.

Really? So can you explain why Alabama is ranked so high? Who have they beaten to justify their ranking?

Alabama beat WVU this year- and a lot of the big games still left. (last year they were a clear #3). If you are talking about last year- Alabama had wins over Va Tech, LSU, and Texas A&M- and 1 of only 6 teams with 1 or fewer losses... End of the day- that's a huge factor.

I'm talking about as of right now.....TCU beat WV too--in Morgantown, yet Bama is rated ahead of them. TCU beat Oklahoma. Bama's next best win is what...Tenn? Fla? A&M? The point I'm making is the SOS rankings are quite flawed. So when I asked is there really that much of a difference between 23 and 43, this is the kind of stuff I'm talking about.

Part of TCU is they have played SMU and a FCS school. Alabama hasn't yet played worse than a 3 win team.

I think also the committee had those same questions about the TCU defense.

And you may not think teams like Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida are good -but they are all top 40ish teams. All top 6 SOS teams.

(11-03-2014 07:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Part of TCU is they have played SMU and a FCS school. Alabama hasn't yet played worse than a 3 win team.

I think also the committee had those same questions about the TCU defense.

And you may not think teams like Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida are good -but they are all top 40ish teams. All top 6 SOS teams.

I was referring to TCU's SOS was rated behind Bama's. This is my point about SOS not telling the story. The same holds true for FSU. FSU has plenty of good teams on the schedule, but they don't get the same benefit. There's too much bias built into the calculations.