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After voting today -
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #41
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 08:09 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 08:03 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  The GOP will get wiped out in 2016. Keeping in reasonably close this year is the Democratic goal.

I wouldn't say wiped out, but just as the playing field favored the GOP this cycle, it favors the Dems next cycle.

I think the bigger problem will be that the GOP doesn't have a candidate that can win a primary and then the general election.

Its interesting because the GOP Chamber of Commerce types finally see it and are trying to figure out how to get a non-firebrand through Iowa and South Carolina. I don't think they can do it. They're trying to do it with Jeb Bush. He's the only one that could possibly do so, but he's gonna have a lot of trouble because of W's legacy. And I don't think that the tea partiers are going to have anything to do with him. Or that Hillary wouldn't win anyway.

The tea partiers are going to have to get wiped out .ie 1964 before they change their tune.
11-03-2014 09:52 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #42
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:52 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  The tea partiers are going to have to get wiped out .ie 1964 before they change their tune.

The lesson of the 1964 election is the power of a modern television mudslinging campaign. If JFK wasn't assassinated, that would have been the best and most honest election from both sides since the early 1800's in this country.
11-03-2014 09:56 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #43
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:37 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:00 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 08:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Mark Warner is conservative enough to win in Virginia. He's a very appealing candidate for the Dems in 2016 if HRC doesn't run. That's the real issue with the GOP in 2016....they don't have a candidate that can win both the primary and the general.

Hillary beats all GOPers
So does Mark Warner
So does Martin O'Malley

The bench is long for the Dems.

For the GOP, you have

Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
John Kasich

Again, I don't think Kasich or Bush get out of the primaries. All the others would be such hopeless losers in a general election that the Dems could just mail it in.

I disagree. There is almost NOTHING after Hillary on the Dem side. Elizabeth Warren is their worst nightmare in a general. Andrew Cuomo and Joe Biden are similarly disastrous. I also think your GOP list is strawman. Frothy and Huckleberry won't run again. No way in hell Carson runs. Jeb's last name is a huge liability. The people doing the real retail politics work to run right now are Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Ted Cruz. Beyond that the likely bench is Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Nikki Haley, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Bobby Jindall.

But don't take my word for it ... look up the betting odds at internet gambling sites. Hillary is 4/9 at Ladbrokes. Warren 8/1. Biden 16/1. On the GOP side you have 10 people listed by the time you hit 16/1.

We're way too smart to go with Elizabeth Warren. 2016 isn't her time. Don't get us wrong, we love her, but we know better. Its about winning. Biden will get nowhere in a Dem primary. Right now its Hillary, Warner, O'Malley. Kristin Gillibrand will probably run if Hillary doesn't.

Bobby Jindal would get crushed (way too conservative and that whole exorcism thing). So would Nikki Haley. Both Haley and Jindal are hard core social conservatives. Rumors be swirling around Ms. Haley too and not the good kind. Rubio can't get out of a primary. Walker is too tied to the Kochs. Ryan's policies would get pilloried (again) in a general. I'm more scared of Jeb Bush than any of that crowd. There's only one GOPer that scares me right now, and Susana Martinez isn't running.

The Dem betting odds are likely discounted by the fact that they'd have to beat Hillary to even make the general.

I just looked them up. Its HRC in the general at 11/8 odds.


Huckabee scares me. He's a really good communicator.


What if the dems went with a HRC/Warren ticket. I thought that Hillary would need a man on the ticket but nobody questions if she is tough enough for the job. Bill Clinton added a southern to the ticket. They might try to run up the score with an all female ticket. GOP would counter with a female VP of course.
11-03-2014 09:58 PM
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UM2001GRAD Offline
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Post: #44
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:52 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:30 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  Aren't they already?

They're on their last legs. But for the biggest war hawk in MODERN HISTORY to come out of the Democrat primaries ... that's a dagger in the heart.

Nah... Democrats have a lot more flexibility inside the party than the GOP. So it's no mortal wound. Plus Hillary wouldn't hold a candle to GWB as a war hawk.
11-03-2014 09:58 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #45
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:56 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:52 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  The tea partiers are going to have to get wiped out .ie 1964 before they change their tune.

The lesson of the 1964 election is the power of a modern television mudslinging campaign. If JFK wasn't assassinated, that would have been the best and most honest election from both sides since the early 1800's in this country.

JFK would have done anything to win that 1964 election.
11-03-2014 09:59 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #46
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:59 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  JFK would have done anything to win that 1964 election.

JFK and Barry were both close personal friends. Also, Barry was for integration way way before the GOP was ready to tackle that in Arizona. He was pro-choice. He was largely responsible for forcing Sandra Day O'Conner through to SCOTUS (a mixed bag but better than average). He was also for gays in the military. Barry flew EVERYTHING the Air Force offered until very late in his life, he was that into the service. He was also in MARS and relayed over ham radio as his own considerable expense phone patches from family to GIs. And he had a grandson who was gay and also served in the military ... hence his stance. Also, JFK is far from the Democrats of today. JFK slashed tax rates and introduced silver backed currency... absolute anathema to statists in both parties today as it provides true limitations on government's ability to borrow.
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2014 10:10 PM by georgia_tech_swagger.)
11-03-2014 10:07 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:52 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:30 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  Aren't they already?

They're on their last legs. But for the biggest war hawk in MODERN HISTORY to come out of the Democrat primaries ... that's a dagger in the heart.

Would Hillary be as big a war hawk if she actually got elected? I think to some extent she's just rattling sabres to imply that she's tough enough despite being a woman and one-time First Lady. Margaret Thatcher wannabe, perhaps.
11-03-2014 10:23 PM
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #48
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 10:07 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:59 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  JFK would have done anything to win that 1964 election.

JFK and Barry were both close personal friends. Also, Barry was for integration way way before the GOP was ready to tackle that in Arizona. He was pro-choice. He was largely responsible for forcing Sandra Day O'Conner through to SCOTUS (a mixed bag but better than average). He was also for gays in the military. Barry flew EVERYTHING the Air Force offered until very late in his life, he was that into the service. He was also in MARS and relayed over ham radio as his own considerable expense phone patches from family to GIs. And he had a grandson who was gay and also served in the military ... hence his stance. Also, JFK is far from the Democrats of today. JFK slashed tax rates and introduced silver backed currency... absolute anathema to statists in both parties today as it provides true limitations on government's ability to borrow.

JFK & Nixon were friends too. JFK still did everything to win that 1960 race.
11-03-2014 10:26 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #49
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 09:58 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:37 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 09:00 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 08:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Mark Warner is conservative enough to win in Virginia. He's a very appealing candidate for the Dems in 2016 if HRC doesn't run. That's the real issue with the GOP in 2016....they don't have a candidate that can win both the primary and the general.

Hillary beats all GOPers
So does Mark Warner
So does Martin O'Malley

The bench is long for the Dems.

For the GOP, you have

Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
John Kasich

Again, I don't think Kasich or Bush get out of the primaries. All the others would be such hopeless losers in a general election that the Dems could just mail it in.

I disagree. There is almost NOTHING after Hillary on the Dem side. Elizabeth Warren is their worst nightmare in a general. Andrew Cuomo and Joe Biden are similarly disastrous. I also think your GOP list is strawman. Frothy and Huckleberry won't run again. No way in hell Carson runs. Jeb's last name is a huge liability. The people doing the real retail politics work to run right now are Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and Ted Cruz. Beyond that the likely bench is Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Nikki Haley, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Bobby Jindall.

But don't take my word for it ... look up the betting odds at internet gambling sites. Hillary is 4/9 at Ladbrokes. Warren 8/1. Biden 16/1. On the GOP side you have 10 people listed by the time you hit 16/1.

We're way too smart to go with Elizabeth Warren. 2016 isn't her time. Don't get us wrong, we love her, but we know better. Its about winning. Biden will get nowhere in a Dem primary. Right now its Hillary, Warner, O'Malley. Kristin Gillibrand will probably run if Hillary doesn't.

Bobby Jindal would get crushed (way too conservative and that whole exorcism thing). So would Nikki Haley. Both Haley and Jindal are hard core social conservatives. Rumors be swirling around Ms. Haley too and not the good kind. Rubio can't get out of a primary. Walker is too tied to the Kochs. Ryan's policies would get pilloried (again) in a general. I'm more scared of Jeb Bush than any of that crowd. There's only one GOPer that scares me right now, and Susana Martinez isn't running.

The Dem betting odds are likely discounted by the fact that they'd have to beat Hillary to even make the general.

I just looked them up. Its HRC in the general at 11/8 odds.


Huckabee scares me. He's a really good communicator.


What if the dems went with a HRC/Warren ticket. I thought that Hillary would need a man on the ticket but nobody questions if she is tough enough for the job. Bill Clinton added a southern to the ticket. They might try to run up the score with an all female ticket. GOP would counter with a female VP of course.

Don't worry about him. He's put all the weight back on (and them some). He wanted to throw 300,000 Americans (and Magic Johnson) into jailcamps for being HIV positive and then doubled down on it. His show has been a forum for him to say lots of things that would be deeply problematic for a candidate for the Presidency.

Elizabeth Warren probably wouldn't leave the Senate for a VP nod. No power. She's there to impact policy (and that should scare the right).
11-03-2014 10:58 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #50
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 10:23 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  Would Hillary be as big a war hawk if she actually got elected? I think to some extent she's just rattling sabres to imply that she's tough enough despite being a woman and one-time First Lady. Margaret Thatcher wannabe, perhaps.

As a Senator, she was damned lock step with McCain and Lindsey Graham. So I think very much YES she'd govern that way.
11-03-2014 11:00 PM
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QuestionSocratic Offline
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Post: #51
RE: After voting tomorrow -
Tomorrow begins the flip to a generation of Republican domination.

The middle class has finally figured out how Democratic policies have held this country back from its true exceptionalism.
11-03-2014 11:01 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #52
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 11:01 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  Tomorrow begins the flip to a generation of Republican domination.

The middle class has finally figured out how Democratic policies have held this country back from its true exceptionalism.

Not worried. We'll have a bad day tomorrow, but one that was utterly predictable and one that really doesn't mean much for 2016.
11-04-2014 01:03 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-04-2014 01:03 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 11:01 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  Tomorrow begins the flip to a generation of Republican domination.
The middle class has finally figured out how Democratic policies have held this country back from its true exceptionalism.
Not worried. We'll have a bad day tomorrow, but one that was utterly predictable and one that really doesn't mean much for 2016.

You'll probably have a bad day tomorrow. America and the world will probably have a good day tomorrow. Unfortunately, as you note, it probably won't last past 2016.

Those comments reflect not so much that republicans will be substantially better than democrats but rather that when both sides have terrible ideas, the best thing that can happen is gridlock.
11-04-2014 01:17 AM
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firmbizzle Offline
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Post: #54
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 11:01 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  Tomorrow begins the flip to a generation of Republican domination.

The middle class has finally figured out how Democratic policies have held this country back from its true exceptionalism.

Yes. It will change American. Mitch McConnell will lead us to the promise land.
11-04-2014 05:19 AM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #55
RE: After voting tomorrow -
Well, I voted. Not much of a line, of course it was 6:30 am. Had to present my ID, which was nice.
11-04-2014 07:07 AM
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QuestionSocratic Offline
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Post: #56
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-04-2014 05:19 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 11:01 PM)QuestionSocratic Wrote:  Tomorrow begins the flip to a generation of Republican domination.

The middle class has finally figured out how Democratic policies have held this country back from its true exceptionalism.

Yes. It will change American. Mitch McConnell will lead us to the promise land.

If Mitch brings one bill to the floor for a vote, he will have accomplished more than Harry Reid in the last 4 years.
11-04-2014 08:31 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 02:49 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Here will be the battle lines

1) The Budget - Our budget situation is improving and QE is ending. If the GOP wishes to shoot themselves in the foot, they can try to shut down the government again.

2) Immigration - I predict massive problems for the GOP in this regard.

3) Health Care - Obamacare is turning out to be popular. Trying to defund it helps Obama. Putting together a credible alternative plan that contains premium rises for consumers would be a nice starting point for the GOP.

4) Social Issues - Obama wins when the GOP tries to attack Gays or puts up outrageous barriers to settled law (e.g., Roe v Wade end runs). Those things frequently backfire (see Virginia). It also will harm the GOP with the moderate women they'll need in 16.

5) Attacks on Unions/Equal Pay/Working Class Rights - Not a good sign.

Remember that the Presidential election starts Wednesday. Every thing put up by the GOP will have to be opined on at length by the GOP candidates.

The real problem is that the GOP has enough votes to win a low turnout off year election where the field is skewed heavily in their favor. But not enough to win a general election (The GOP has won exactly one raw vote for President since 1988). They haven't figured it out, and therefore will have issues in 16, regardless of the outcome for them.

The best 16 scenario for tomorrow is for the GOP to lose McConnell, and not take the Senate. That way, the crazy stays in low gear. And especially if the Dems winning happen to be the moderate ones, it provides more examples that in order to govern, the GOP will have to jettison some of its more extreme elements. It won't happen. Expect the GOP to win WV, ARK (expect that one to be prize of dubious value), MT, SD, and CO (which I hate), KY (which y'all should hate), and take the Senate.

I think you bring up some very salient issues as today represents the best and worst case scenario for the GOP. It's important to present cogent plans that have legit benefits as opposed to simply being anti Obama. To your points...

1. The QE sucks as a long term plan, but if one is proposed, use it to seek cuts in federal spending. That has to be the primary issue for Republicans for the next two years, reducing the size of the government. Tom, you and I have talked about 2 for 1 cuts and spending deals in several threads. Hopefully, someone will take this idea and implement some form of it.

2. This is the trickiest issue to resolve for the GOP because its so easy to be slandered towards racism. But that doesn't mean a plan can't be crafted that could fracture the Democrats. I think highlighting how illegal immigration harms blacks would be a useful tacit. Do not expand policy beyond stopping illegal crossings. When challenged ask why should illegals be given citizenship over those immigrating via legal means.

3. You're correct in people thinking that the ACA is helpful when it actually has done nothing to improve the number of providers available. Any changes to Obamacare have to be predicated around either increasing providers or eliminating the inherent redundancy of the system (i.e. just expand Medicare/Medicaid)

4. I have no idea what end runs to Roe v. Wade you are referring to since no one anywhere has proposed reducing the numerous birth control and abortive options available. What the GOP needs to highlight to women is the inherent paternalism of the DNC message that women are incapable of obtaining relatively cheap birth control options on their own without government intervention.

Regarding gay marriage, I know it will enrage the religious base but ultimately the battle was lost on this front over 40 years ago with Loving v. Virginia. Redefine the battle lines and champion the homosexual POV of freedom of choice, to include the choice of churches to elect not to perform ceremonies should it conflict with their doctrine.

5. The GOP doesn't need to attack Unions as that organization is self destructive on its own. Just highlight the instances of Unions still restoring to their Blackball tactics. Whenever Unions tout how they created weekends, respond by inquiring about their race record. The GOP at no time has been against Equal Pay and allowed itself to be painted into an unnecessary corner over the Libby Ledbetter Amendment. Republicans need to demonstrate they were supportive of Libby's case, just opposed to an act that would leave businesses open to lawsuits forever.
11-04-2014 08:38 AM
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DaSaintFan Offline
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Post: #58
RE: After voting tomorrow -
Forget about #2.. cause everything I've heard on the radio is just sickening me to my stomach, if the Republicans win today (which I still don't think is a sure thing).

They've already hinted they've got a "republican written" (Aka, McConnell written) amnesty fiasco-bill ready to bring to the floor of the Senate that they "know" they can get past the House.
11-04-2014 08:45 AM
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BobL Offline
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Post: #59
RE: After voting tomorrow -
(11-03-2014 08:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 08:32 PM)ODUsmitty Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 12:37 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  LOL. I guess I should just book my ticket to DC for Hillary Clinton or Mark Warner's Inauguration now...04-cheers

Mark Warner is exhibit A for why kids with severe acne should be on ProActiv. His face has more potholes than the PA Turnpike.

Warner claims to be moderate, but votes 97% of the time among party lines. Many Virginians are no longer fooled by this, but not enough to push Gillespie over the top tomorrow.

Mark Warner is conservative enough to win in Virginia. He's a very appealing candidate for the Dems in 2016 if HRC doesn't run. That's the real issue with the GOP in 2016....they don't have a candidate that can win both the primary and the general.

Hillary beats all GOPers
So does Mark Warner
So does Martin O'Malley

The bench is long for the Dems.

For the GOP, you have

Ted Cruz
Rand Paul

Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush


Again, I don't think Kasich or Bush get out of the primaries. All the others would be such hopeless losers in a general election that the Dems could just mail it in.

Of those listed Rubio is the only guy I see with a chance. Rand Paul in an interesting guy but I just dont see him getting through the primaries.
11-04-2014 09:23 AM
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Post: #60
RE: After voting today -
(11-03-2014 02:49 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(11-03-2014 01:15 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  The problem with that analogy is that in 2010, the Republicans only gained control over one house of Congress with a Democratic president so they couldn't do much unless they passed legislation the Democrats wanted. A better analogy would be the 1994 election when the Republicans took over both houses of Congress with a Democratic president. The difference then from now is that that president was willing to compromise and I doubt few here would argue that 1995 - 2001 was a disaster. The real question is "will President Obama be willing to work with Republicans?". I'm very doubtful. He's not shown a willingness to budge much. I don't believe it's in his nature to compromise.
That's not how it will play out and you know it. Dems win in high turnout elections. The GOP wins in low turnout elections. To actually gain control of the House/Senate/Presidency, youre gonna have to do it in a high turnout election.

Big problem for republicans was that they have nominated enough crazies the last two election cycles that they failed to take over the senate--give them better candidates than Angle, McDonnell, Mourdock, and Akin and the suspense today could be simply how big their margin could get. And what I find particularly galling is that the issues the crazies have been most crazy about are issues that I don't give a damn about.

Quote:Here will be the battle lines
1) The Budget - Our budget situation is improving and QE is ending. If the GOP wishes to shoot themselves in the foot, they can try to shut down the government again.
2) Immigration - I predict massive problems for the GOP in this regard.
3) Health Care - Obamacare is turning out to be popular. Trying to defund it helps Obama. Putting together a credible alternative plan that contains premium rises for consumers would be a nice starting point for the GOP.
4) Social Issues - Obama wins when the GOP tries to attack Gays or puts up outrageous barriers to settled law (e.g., Roe v Wade end runs). Those things frequently backfire (see Virginia). It also will harm the GOP with the moderate women they'll need in 16.
5) Attacks on Unions/Equal Pay/Working Class Rights - Not a good sign.

Here are my answers to those:

1) The Budget - We're better than before, but still not back down to the level of even GWB's absurd deficits. Pass Bowles-Simpson or Domenici-Rivlin, or the best of both. There's still a lot in either one that would help, and with the budget closer to being balanced than before, you have a chance to get there.
2) Immigration - You can't send illegals back to Mexico, and you can't make them citizens without making a mockery of the rule of law. Expand guest workers, including everybody who is here illegally with a job now. No citizenship for those who came illegally, unless they go back and do it right. But they can stay and work, which is what they really want. And babies get citizenship only if parents are here legally.
3) Health Care - French Bismarck health care. It could come in the form of expanded Medicare, with which it shares many commonalities, but with reduced government bureaucratic intrusion.
4) Social Issues - Civil unions for everyone, marriage goes back to churches, and the right of a church to determine whom it will marry cannot be challenged. Separation of church and state is reaffirmed as keeping the state out of church business, which was the original intent, and "prohibiting the free exercise" is given standing equal to "respecting an establishment." Abortion during the first trimester, consistent with the first 150 years of the republic (making it the true conservative position), and in exceptional cases (rape, life or health of mother) thereafter. Life begins at conception, and the unborn baby has rights from that point, but those rights don't trump all other considerations immediately, just as no citizen's rights trump all other considerations in any other context. It's a weighing process, the mother's rights prevail for a period of time, and first trimester sounds reasonable for that. But these are just guidelines, make them states' rights issues.
5) Attacks on Unions/Equal Pay/Working Class Rights - Unions are diametrically opposed to other key democrat constituencies--environmentalists on a host of issues, blacks and minorities on others. There are some serious wedge issues here that republicans could utilize effectively if they were smarter about it. Moochie actually nailed the equal pay situation the other day, probably inadvertently. Women take time off for childbearing and raising, and that puts them behind the economic curve if they go back to work. Correct for that, and the pay differential pretty much goes away. The real problem is what Ross Perot talked about 20 years ago, and actually got a lot of traction--we are becoming a retail/service economy (much more so now than even then) and you can't pay somebody as much to deliver a pizza as you paid his/her grandfather to run a steel mill. People understood this when Perot talked about it, and my guess is that people would understand it again if republicans talked about it. Adopt policies to bring back high-paying jobs, and you will do fine with unions, and make inroads with minorities. And while you're at it, go for some free-market solutions to environmental problems. There are many good ones, and if you could fracture the environmental bloc over the best way to accomplish objectives, you'd go a long way toward solidifying your political position.

Will republicans go there? Probably not. But if they did, they would win in 2016.
(This post was last modified: 11-04-2014 10:16 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
11-04-2014 09:56 AM
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