C-USA

West

47. Louisiana Tech (6-3)
65. RICE (5-3)
71. UTEP (5-3)
108. Southern Miss. (3-6)
109. UTSA (2-6)
118. North Texas (2-6)

East

19. Marshall (8-0)
70. Middle Tennessee (5-4)
83. UAB (5-4)
99. Fla. Int'l (3-6)
102. Western Kentucky (3-5)
105. Fla. Atlantic (3-6)
110. Old Dominion (3-6)

Others:

13. Notre Dame (7-1)
32. Texas A&M (6-3)
101. Hawai'i (2-7)
120. Army (2-6)

Southwest Conference Standings:

5. T.C.U. (7-1)
12. Baylor (7-1)
32. Texas A&M (6-3)
43. Houston (5-3)
53. Arkansas (4-5)
65. RICE (5-3)
67. Texas (4-5)
96. Texas Tech (3-6)
122. S.M.U. (0-7)

How does TAMU barely beat Louisiana-Monroe and go up 4 spots (from 36 to 32)?

(11-02-2014 07:27 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  How does TAMU barely beat Louisiana-Monroe and go up 4 spots (from 36 to 32)?

Because 4 of the 5 teams directly ahead of them last week lost their games:

#31 East Carolina (now #36)
#32 Louisville (now #33)
#34 UCF (now #48)
#35 Stanford (now #42)

Also, the team directly behind them (Minnesota) did not play.

FIU is strongest win so far.
Rice losing to ODU comparable to UH losing to UTSA (except for margin of victory)
Why is SMU ranked so highly? (ahead of 6 others I presume?)

(11-02-2014 07:51 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  FIU is strongest win so far.
Rice losing to ODU comparable to UH losing to UTSA (except for margin of victory)
Why is SMU ranked so highly? (ahead of 6 others I presume?)

SMU has a much tougher schedule. The Mustangs had one bad loss (to North Texas), but look at who they've played:

TCU, Baylor, Texas A&M, East Carolina, Memphis and Cincinnati. Every one has a winning record.

Yep but NT beat SMU by >30 points and game was worse than the 30+ point spread. SMU got a TD in garbage time but NT is only 4 spots ahead.

(11-02-2014 07:58 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Yep but NT beat SMU by >30 points and game was worse than the 30+ point spread. SMU got a TD in garbage time but NT is only 4 spots ahead.

I cannot be convinced that SMU is worse than the 6 teams below them. They are the dregs of the two (by far) worst conferences - the MAC and Sun Belt. Therefore, you might want to argue that UNT is underrated. Perhaps, but, not by many slots. They may be better than Buffalo or Appalachian State, but after that, I could not make an argument for a team that lost at home by 10 points to Southern Miss.

In the Massey Composite ratings, we're ranked #72, behind Northwestern and ahead of Syracuse. Marshall is #20, LA Tech #43, UTEP #78, and UTSA #104. Our last three games will be tough!

(11-02-2014 09:15 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  In the Massey Composite ratings, we're ranked #72, behind Northwestern and ahead of Syracuse. Marshall is #20, LA Tech #43, UTEP #78, and UTSA #104. Our last three games will be tough!

Keep in mind that the composite will change as more of the ratings come in. After I submitted mine, Rice moved to #70. By Tuesday, it'll be done.

I need help from all of you smart Owls. I normally have a ton of respect for the work of Jeff Sagarin. But this year's ratings really have me questioning whether the deck is just stacked to help the SEC. I realize his rankings no longer have any baring on a BCS formula, but I would imagine committee members look at them. We are now in the month of November, and he has TEN SEC teams in the top 30. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I'm sure the math to his formula would be easy to explain, but how do you explain to my eyeballs that Texas A&M is the 19th best team in America or that Florida is 18th?

(11-03-2014 08:47 AM)Mademen Wrote:  I need help from all of you smart Owls. I normally have a ton of respect for the work of Jeff Sagarin. But this year's ratings really have me questioning whether the deck is just stacked to help the SEC. I realize his rankings no longer have any baring on a BCS formula, but I would imagine committee members look at them. We are now in the month of November, and he has TEN SEC teams in the top 30. http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

I'm sure the math to his formula would be easy to explain, but how do you explain to my eyeballs that Texas A&M is the 19th best team in America or that Florida is 18th?

A couple of years ago, I did an analysis of Sagarin's system and found there were several problems. I don't have time right now to go into it, but, in summary:
(1) because there are so few games between FBS and FCS teams, and because almost all of them are in the first few weeks of the season, it makes no sense to put all D1 teams in the same list. Also, even the best FCS teams would not survive a full FBS schedule because of lack of depth (more likely to get injured playing every week against players who are bigger and faster than typical FCS players); (2) he begins the season with rankings. How? I don't do any rankings until after the fourth week because there is no data. He claims to gradually input this year's results while phasing out that initial subjective data. But, that led me to (3) I reverse engineered his formula and found that he does have a bias in favor of certain conferences and against others. A few years ago, I wondered why all C-USA teams were lower in his rankings, and that led me to discover this bias. When I have more time, I'll go further into this topic.

I have 7 SEC teams in the top 30, plus Texas A&M just outside at #32.
In non-conference games, the SEC is 41-3. That's pretty strong.

(11-03-2014 09:41 AM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  I have 7 SEC teams in the top 30, plus Texas A&M just outside at #32.
In non-conference games, the SEC is 41-3. That's pretty strong.

I'm sure they have as many if not more impressive non-conference wins as any other conference. I would just point out that of those 44 games played out of conference, only 6 of them were a true road game.

True Road games: Mizzou @ Toledo, Tennessee @ OU, Miss State @ South Alabama, Auburn @ Kansas State, Texas A&M @ SMU, Arkansas @ Texas Tech.

These teams getting to play 8 games out of 12 at home is not competitive balance.


The Pac 12 plays 1 fewer non-conference game than the SEC and has 2 fewer teams but managed to play nearly twice as many true road games.

Pac 12

True Road games (11): Stanford @ Notre Dame, California @ Northwestern, Washington @ Hawaii, Oregon State @ Hawaii, Washington State @ Nevada, Arizona State @ New Mexico, USC @ Boston College, UCLA @ Virginia, Arizona @ UTSA, Utah @ Michigan, Colorado @ UMass

ACC Non-Conference

True Road games (16): Clemson @ Georgia, Boston College @ UMass, Louisville @ Florida International, Louisville @ Notre Dame, NC State @ South Florida, Syracuse @ Central Michigan, Wake Forest @ UL Monroe, Wake Forest @ Utah State, Duke @ Troy, Georgia Tech @ Tulane, Georgia Tech @ Georgia, Miami @ Nebraska, UNC @ East Carolina, UNC @ Notre Dame, Virginia @ BYU, Pitt @ Florida International, Virginia Tech @ Ohio State

Big 12 Non-Conference

True Road games (7): TCU @ SMU, Baylor @ Buffalo, West Virginia @ Maryland, OU @ Tulsa, Texas Tech @ UTEP, Kansas @ Duke, Iowa State @ Iowa

Big 10 Non-Conference

True Road Games: (14): Michigan State @ Oregon, Ohio State @ Navy, Maryland @ South Florida, Maryland @ Syracuse, Michigan @ Notre Dame, Rutgers @ Washington State, Rutgers @ Navy, Indiana @ Bowling Green, Indiana @ Missouri, Nebraska @ Fresno State, Minnesota @ TCU, Iowa @ Pitt, Northwestern @ Notre Dame, Illinois @ Washington,