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So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
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quo vadis Offline
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So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
At the lower P5 echelons, there were some interesting bowl eligibility developments. Two teams written off for bowls, Florida and Tennessee, pulled off upsets, while three teams that appeared headed for bowls, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech, all suffered setbacks.

Here's how I rate their chances:

Florida: Florida has four games remaining and must win two of them. Fortunately for the Gators, while a sure-loss to FSU looms, the other three games are eminently winnable, against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky. This is by no means a gimme, as this Florida team is capable of losing to all of these teams. Still, odds are, they beat Vandy and even 8-1 FCS Eastern Kentucky. So ...

Chances to go bowling: 75%

South Carolina: South Carolina has only three games remaining and must win two. One of those is against G5 South Alabama, a likely win. So SC must beat either Clemson or Florida to become bowl eligible. Spurrier loves rivalry games, and both his alma mater and Clemson qualify, and he's had good success against both in recent years. But, both of these games are on the road, and I suspect this is finally the year that Clemson beats him, so their bowl hopes boil down to beating Florida. SC is better, but the game is in Gainesville.

Chances to go bowling: 50%

Tennessee: Suddenly alive for a bowl after their shock win at South Carolina, Tennessee must win two of its last three games. A win against hapless Vanderbilt is nearly assured and will bring them within a game of the needed six victories, but Missouri is a likely loss, which means their bowl hopes boil down to winning at home against Kentucky next week.

This will be a struggle, because Kentucky, at 5-4 and with tough games ahead, badly needs this game to become bowl eligible themselves. Still, I like Tennessee, but just barely.

Chances to go bowling: 55%

Virginia Tech: VT is fading fast, but luckily for them they play in the soft ACC and don't even have to face FSU or Clemson! That's a G5 schedule. Next week's game at Duke is a likely loss, but their remaining games against Wake Forest and Virginia will be tough to lose.

Chances to go bowling: 75%

North Carolina: UNC is also fortunate that their schedule doesn't include FSU, and they've already lost to Clemson. They need to win two of three to get into a bowl. At Duke is shaping up as a loss, so they likely will have to beat both NC State and Pitt to play in a bowl game, both of whom are also 4-5 and struggling to get bowl eligible. My guess is they win one but not both.

Chances to go bowling: 25%
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2014 09:38 AM by quo vadis.)
11-02-2014 09:36 AM
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TerryD Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
The 'Ole Ballsack ought to consider retiring from South Carolina and find a rocking chair from which to yell at kids to get off his lawn.....
11-02-2014 10:14 AM
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Maize Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Of this list only Florida and Tennessee...Jeremy Foley going to have a problem...
11-02-2014 10:36 AM
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lumberpack4 Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-02-2014 09:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  At the lower P5 echelons, there were some interesting bowl eligibility developments. Two teams written off for bowls, Florida and Tennessee, pulled off upsets, while three teams that appeared headed for bowls, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech, all suffered setbacks.

Here's how I rate their chances:

Florida: Florida has four games remaining and must win two of them. Fortunately for the Gators, while a sure-loss to FSU looms, the other three games are eminently winnable, against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky. This is by no means a gimme, as this Florida team is capable of losing to all of these teams. Still, odds are, they beat Vandy and even 8-1 FCS Eastern Kentucky. So ...

Chances to go bowling: 75%

South Carolina: South Carolina has only three games remaining and must win two. One of those is against G5 South Alabama, a likely win. So SC must beat either Clemson or Florida to become bowl eligible. Spurrier loves rivalry games, and both his alma mater and Clemson qualify, and he's had good success against both in recent years. But, both of these games are on the road, and I suspect this is finally the year that Clemson beats him, so their bowl hopes boil down to beating Florida. SC is better, but the game is in Gainesville.

Chances to go bowling: 50%

Tennessee: Suddenly alive for a bowl after their shock win at South Carolina, Tennessee must win two of its last three games. A win against hapless Vanderbilt is nearly assured and will bring them within a game of the needed six victories, but Missouri is a likely loss, which means their bowl hopes boil down to winning at home against Kentucky next week.

This will be a struggle, because Kentucky, at 5-4 and with tough games ahead, badly needs this game to become bowl eligible themselves. Still, I like Tennessee, but just barely.

Chances to go bowling: 55%

Virginia Tech: VT is fading fast, but luckily for them they play in the soft ACC and don't even have to face FSU or Clemson! That's a G5 schedule. Next week's game at Duke is a likely loss, but their remaining games against Wake Forest and Virginia will be tough to lose.

Chances to go bowling: 75%

North Carolina: UNC is also fortunate that their schedule doesn't include FSU, and they've already lost to Clemson. They need to win two of three to get into a bowl. At Duke is shaping up as a loss, so they likely will have to beat both NC State and Pitt to play in a bowl game, both of whom are also 4-5 and struggling to get bowl eligible. My guess is they win one but not both.

Chances to go bowling: 25%

NC State is 5-4.
11-02-2014 01:28 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Kentucky has bestedn tennessee exactly once in theast 30 years, including 27 straight losses during that time. I'd put the odds of Tennessee winning at much higher than "barely."
11-02-2014 02:51 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-02-2014 02:51 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Kentucky has bestedn tennessee exactly once in theast 30 years, including 27 straight losses during that time. I'd put the odds of Tennessee winning at much higher than "barely."

Yes, but those 30 years don't help Tennessee this year. This year's Tennessee team isn't highly likely to beat anyone not in FCS.
11-02-2014 04:20 PM
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Maize Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-02-2014 04:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-02-2014 02:51 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Kentucky has bestedn tennessee exactly once in theast 30 years, including 27 straight losses during that time. I'd put the odds of Tennessee winning at much higher than "barely."

Yes, but those 30 years don't help Tennessee this year. This year's Tennessee team isn't highly likely to beat anyone not in FCS.

After watching Kentucky - Missouri yesterday i would put $$$ on Tennessee...the Wildcats really regressed yesterday from the Coaches on Down...the Game Management/Game Plannimg by the Wildcats was Head Shaking...01-wingedeagle
11-02-2014 04:35 PM
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nert Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Tennessee will be bowl eligible - no doubt in my mind.
11-02-2014 05:25 PM
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Rabbit_in_Red Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Tennessee will become bowl eligible by beating UK. Worse Tennessee teams have managed to still beat UK.
11-02-2014 05:35 PM
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MJG Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
All these teams need to win two of three.
Same as Michigan yet only Michigan and Florida are in the spotlight. I pull for Michigan and the Gamecocks and follow both closely.
My many Gamecock friends have given me crap about Michigan.
Plenty of disappointed USC fans but the nation doesn't care.
11-02-2014 05:53 PM
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EvilVodka Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Florida
11-02-2014 06:27 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Bubble teams... expected wins in bold...

ACC (5):
UNC (4-5): Pitt [4-5], @Duke [7-1], NC-State [4-5]
VA-Tech (4-5): @Duke [7-1], @Wake [2-6], Vajinia [4-5]
NC-State (5-4): @GA-Tech [7-2], Wake [2-6], @UNC [4-5]
Vajinia (4-5): @FSU [8-0], Miami-FL [6-3], @VA-Tech [4-5]
Pitt (4-5): @UNC [4-5], Syracuse [3-6], @Miami-FL [6-3]
3 ACC Bubbles go 6-6, 9 ACC teams go bowling; 8 ACC teams to regular bowls (FSU to Final Four)

B12 (2):
Oklahoma State (5-4): Texas [4-5], @Baylor [7-1], @Oklahoma [6-2]
Texas (4-5): West Virginia [6-3], @Okla-State [5-4], TCU [7-1]
1 B12 Bubbles go 6-6, 6 B12 teams go bowling; Expect Only 1 Bubble

B1G (6):
Michigan (4-5): @NW [3-5], Maryland [6-3], @Ohio State [7-1]
PSU (4-4): @Indiana [3-5], Temple [5-3], @Illinois [4-5], @MSU [7-1]
Rutgers (5-4): Indiana [3-5], @MSU [7-1], @Maryland [6-3]
NW (3-5): Michigan [4-5], @Notre Dame [7-1], @Purdue [3-6], Illinois [4-5]
Illiniois (4-5): Iowa [6-2], PSU [4-4], @NW [3-5]
Indiana (3-5): PSU [4-4], @Rutgers [5-4], @Ohio State [7-1], Purdue [3-6]
3 B1G Bubbles go 6-6, 10 B1G teams go to bowls; Expect Only 3 Bubbles

P12 (3):
Stanford (5-4): Utah [6-2], @Cal [5-4], @UCLA [7-2]
California (5-4): @USC [6-3], Stanford [5-4], BYU [5-4]
Oregon State (4-4): Wash St [2-7], Ariz State [7-1], @Wash [6-3], Oregon [8-1]
2 P12 Bubbles go 6-6, 8 P12 teams go to bowls; Could be only 1 Bubble

SEC (5):
Florida (4-3): @Vandy [3-6], S. Carolina [4-5], E Kentcky [FCS], @FSU [8-1]
Kentucky (5-4): Georgia [6-2], @Tenn [4-5], @Louisville [6-2]
Arkansas (4-5): LSU [7-2], Ole Miss [7-2], @Missouri [7-2]
Tennessee (4-5): Kentucky [5-4], Missouri [7-2], @Vandy [3-6]
S. Carolina (4-5): @Florida [4-3], South Alabama [5-3], @Clemson [6-2]
2 SEC Bubbles go 6-6, 10 SEC teams go to bowls; Should be straight up 10
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2014 11:08 AM by toddjnsn.)
11-02-2014 08:16 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-02-2014 04:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-02-2014 02:51 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Kentucky has bestedn tennessee exactly once in theast 30 years, including 27 straight losses during that time. I'd put the odds of Tennessee winning at much higher than "barely."

Yes, but those 30 years don't help Tennessee this year. This year's Tennessee team isn't highly likely to beat anyone not in FCS.

I don't think you get it. Kentucky is simply Tennessee's b!tch. Even in their worst years, they still beat Kentucky. Rather convincingly most of the time. They just don't lose to them. Same with Florida (30 straight wins)..
11-02-2014 09:45 PM
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rednblackattack Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
No way UK should be expected to win Knoxville. Thy could win, but I dont see how anyone expects them to. UK has lost 20 straight road games dating back to 2010
11-02-2014 09:51 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Quote:No way UK should be expected to win Knoxville. Thy could win, but I dont see how anyone expects them to. UK has lost 20 straight road games dating back to 2010

Oh, I wouldn't bet on it. But I was going with who's-their-best-shot. You could swap an improved Kentucky team this year with Tennessee, as far as who from the SEC is going bowling. My main concern was a realistic # of teams hitting the 6-6 mark (and the # who fell short).
11-02-2014 11:58 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-02-2014 11:58 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:No way UK should be expected to win Knoxville. Thy could win, but I dont see how anyone expects them to. UK has lost 20 straight road games dating back to 2010

Oh, I wouldn't bet on it. But I was going with who's-their-best-shot. You could swap an improved Kentucky team this year with Tennessee, as far as who from the SEC is going bowling. My main concern was a realistic # of teams hitting the 6-6 mark (and the # who fell short).

No matter how bad Tennessee is, and how good Kentucky thinks they are, the same result happens. Also, Kentucky isn't really "that" improved. The only difference is their schedule was front loaded. Vandy fell apart, giving them one win. And they did pull one off at S. Carolina, Spurrier may have greatly aided, but they did pull one off. But essentially that one win, versus South Carolina, is the win that is giving them credit. That's it. That and no longer scheduling Western Kentucky.

Anyway, this is why Kentucky has so little chance of beating Tennessee...


All games
2013/11/30 Kentucky 14 - Tennessee 27 L
2012/11/24 Kentucky 17 - Tennessee 37 L
2011/11/26 Kentucky 10 - Tennessee 7 W
2010/11/27 Kentucky 14 - Tennessee 24 L
2009/11/28 Kentucky 24 - Tennessee 30 L OT
2008/11/29 Kentucky 10 - Tennessee 28 L
2007/11/24 Kentucky 50 - Tennessee 52 L OT
2006/11/25 Kentucky 12 - Tennessee 17 L
2005/11/26 Kentucky 8 - Tennessee 27 L
2004/11/27 Kentucky 31 - Tennessee 37 L
2003/11/29 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 20 L
2002/11/30 Kentucky 0 - Tennessee 24 L
2001/11/17 Kentucky 35 - Tennessee 38 L
2000/11/18 Kentucky 20 - Tennessee 59 L
1999/11/20 Kentucky 21 - Tennessee 56 L
1998/11/21 Kentucky 21 - Tennessee 59 L
1997/11/22 Kentucky 31 - Tennessee 59 L
1996/11/23 Kentucky 10 - Tennessee 56 L
1995/11/18 Kentucky 31 - Tennessee 34 L
1994/11/19 Kentucky 0 - Tennessee 52 L
1993/11/20 Kentucky 0 - Tennessee 48 L
1992/11/21 Kentucky 13 - Tennessee 34 L
1991/11/23 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 16 L
1990/11/24 Kentucky 28 - Tennessee 42 L
1989/11/25 Kentucky 10 - Tennessee 31 L
1988/11/19 Kentucky 24 - Tennessee 28 L
1987/11/21 Kentucky 22 - Tennessee 24 L
1986/11/22 Kentucky 9 - Tennessee 28 L
1985/11/23 Kentucky 0 - Tennessee 42 L
1984/11/24 Kentucky 17 - Tennessee 12 W
1983/11/19 Kentucky 0 - Tennessee 10 L
1982/11/20 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 28 L
1981/11/21 Kentucky 21 - Tennessee 10 W
1980/11/22 Kentucky 14 - Tennessee 45 L
1979/11/24 Kentucky 17 - Tennessee 20 L
1978/11/25 Kentucky 14 - Tennessee 29 L
1977/11/19 Kentucky 21 - Tennessee 17 W
1976/11/20 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 0 W
1975/11/22 Kentucky 13 - Tennessee 17 L
1974/11/23 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 24 L
1973/11/24 Kentucky 14 - Tennessee 16 L
1972/11/25 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 17 L
1971/11/20 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 21 L
1970/11/21 Kentucky 0 - Tennessee 45 L
1969/11/22 Kentucky 26 - Tennessee 31 L
1968/11/23 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 24 L
1967/11/25 Kentucky 7 - Tennessee 17 L
1966/11/19 Kentucky 19 - Tennessee 28 L
1965/11/20 Kentucky 3 - Tennessee 19 L


Note: it's the same reason they could not beat Florida even when they had them dead to rites:

All games
2014/09/13 Kentucky 30 - Florida 36 L OT
2013/09/28 Kentucky 7 - Florida 24 L
2012/09/22 Kentucky 0 - Florida 38 L
2011/09/24 Kentucky 10 - Florida 48 L
2010/09/25 Kentucky 14 - Florida 48 L
2009/09/26 Kentucky 7 - Florida 41 L
2008/10/25 Kentucky 5 - Florida 63 L
2007/10/20 Kentucky 37 - Florida 45 L
2006/09/23 Kentucky 7 - Florida 26 L
2005/09/24 Kentucky 28 - Florida 49 L
2004/09/25 Kentucky 3 - Florida 20 L
2003/09/27 Kentucky 21 - Florida 24 L
2002/09/27 Kentucky 34 - Florida 41 L
2001/09/22 Kentucky 10 - Florida 44 L
2000/09/23 Kentucky 31 - Florida 59 L
1999/09/25 Kentucky 10 - Florida 38 L
1998/09/26 Kentucky 35 - Florida 51 L
1997/09/27 Kentucky 28 - Florida 55 L
1996/09/28 Kentucky 0 - Florida 65 L
1995/09/09 Kentucky 7 - Florida 42 L
1994/09/10 Kentucky 7 - Florida 73 L
1993/09/11 Kentucky 20 - Florida 24 L
1992/09/12 Kentucky 19 - Florida 35 L
1991/11/16 Kentucky 26 - Florida 35 L
1990/11/17 Kentucky 15 - Florida 47 L
1989/11/18 Kentucky 28 - Florida 38 L
1988/11/12 Kentucky 19 - Florida 24 L
1987/11/14 Kentucky 14 - Florida 27 L
1986/11/15 Kentucky 10 - Florida 3 W
1985/11/16 Kentucky 13 - Florida 15 L
1984/11/17 Kentucky 17 - Florida 25 L
1983/11/12 Kentucky 7 - Florida 24 L
1982/11/13 Kentucky 13 - Florida 39 L
1981/11/14 Kentucky 12 - Florida 33 L
1980/11/15 Kentucky 15 - Florida 17 L
1979/11/17 Kentucky 31 - Florida 3 W
1978/11/18 Kentucky 16 - Florida 18 L
1977/11/12 Kentucky 14 - Florida 7 W
1976/11/13 Kentucky 28 - Florida 9 W
1975/11/15 Kentucky 7 - Florida 48 L
1974/11/16 Kentucky 41 - Florida 24 W
1973/11/17 Kentucky 18 - Florida 20 L
1972/11/18 Kentucky 0 - Florida 40 L
1971/11/13 Kentucky 24 - Florida 35 L
1970/11/14 Kentucky 13 - Florida 24 L
1969/11/15 Kentucky 6 - Florida 31 L
1968/11/16 Kentucky 14 - Florida 16 L
1967/11/18 Kentucky 12 - Florida 28 L
1957/10/05 Kentucky 7 - Florida 14 L
11-03-2014 10:33 AM
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All Dukes_All Day Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
I think VT will lose to UVA this season to remain bowl ineligible for the first time since the Clinton administration. This VT offense is likely the worst of any major conference team.
11-03-2014 10:44 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-02-2014 08:16 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Bubble teams... expected wins in bold...

ACC (5):
UNC (4-5): Pitt [4-5], @Duke [7-1], NC-State [4-5]
VA-Tech (4-5): @Duke [7-1], @Wake [2-6], Vajinia [4-5]
Vajinia (4-5): @FSU [8-0], Miami-FL [6-3], @VA-Tech [4-5]
Pitt (4-5): @UNC [4-5], Syracuse [3-6], @Miami-FL [6-3]
NC-State (4-5): @GA-Tech [7-2], Wake [2-6], @UNC [4-5]
2 ACC Bubbles go 6-6, 9 ACC teams go bowling; 8 ACC teams to regular bowls (FSU to Final Four); Very possibly expect 1 more

NC State is 5-4, not 4-5

http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings
11-03-2014 10:52 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
(11-03-2014 10:44 AM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  I think VT will lose to UVA this season to remain bowl ineligible for the first time since the Clinton administration. This VT offense is likely the worst of any major conference team.

Nah, Wake makes VT look like a 1980's WAC offense.
11-03-2014 10:55 AM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: So of VT, Florida, SC, Tennessee, and North Carolina, who becomes bowl eligible?
Quote:NC State is 5-4, not 4-5

http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings

Good call, I changed it.

Quote:This VT offense is likely the worst of any major conference team.

VT is a lot like Michigan. Would be an interesting 6-6 vs 6-6 bowl matchup to see. Both have Great Defenses. Both have Bad Offenses.

I think Michigan has a more capable offense than VT, but once it starts sprouting, it'll usually turn it over to make up for that anyway.
11-03-2014 11:10 AM
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