There are 12 Access/Semifnal bowl slots. The current projection on those slots from CBS are 4 SEC, 1 Big 12, 2 Big 10, 2 Pac 12, 2 ACC, 1 CUSA. Obviously moving those around will shift which slots end up being open, etc, but that's the assumption for this analysis.

The # of slots listed below are only primary slots.

SEC (4 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 13 total) - Kentucky/SouthCarolina/Tennessee/Florida/Arkansas are the bubble teams. I'm projecting that all of the east teams get in, but Arkansas does not.

Prediction: 13 slots, 12 teams, Independence open.

Big 12 (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - 6 teams are likely in, with Texas Tech and Texas on the bubble. I don't think either one makes it.

Prediction: 6 slots, 6 teams

Big 10 (2 Access/Semi slots, 8 additional, 10 total) - There are 10 teams likely to be eligible, with Michigan/Northwestern being the bubble teams. I don't think either of them make it.

Prediction: 10 slots, 10 teams

Pac 12 (2 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 8 total) - Eight teams are in good shape, with Oregon St and California on the bubble. One of those will make it.

Prediction: 8 slots, 9 teams

ACC (2 Access/Semi slots, 9 additional, 11 total) - Still a mess. I think there are 9 that are in good shape, with UNC, Pitt, UVA on the bubble. I think one of those makes it. ND will also have to use an ACC bowl slot.

Prediction: 11 slots, 10 teams, with Notre Dame making 11

AAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - The fight for the access slot between Marshall and ECU will trickle down to the 6 win teams in the AAC and CUSA trying to get a bowl bid. ECU's loss puts them out of the access picture at the time, so one of their teams will be without a primary slot.

Prediction: 5 slots, 6 teams

CUSA (1 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 6 total) - Marshall, MT, Rice, and La Tech look to be in, and from there, it's a mess. UTEP and UAB are in decent position, with WKU as the lone real bubble team. I'm putting them in for this projection.

Prediction: 6 slots, 7 teams

MWC (0 Access/Semi slots, 6 additional, 6 total) - Six teams that are locks. Fresno St, SJSU, Wyoming are on the bubble. I think one of them makes it

Prediction: 6 slots, 7 teams

MAC (0 Access/Semi slots, 5 additional, 5 total) - They have 6 in, with Ohio, Ball St and Buffalo on the bubble. Those extra teams are probably left in the cold at this point, no matter how many there are.

Prediction: 5 slots, 7 teams

SBC (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - GaSo, App St, and Idaho are ineligible for either FBS transition or academic reasons. ULM is on the bubble, but I have them out right now.

Prediction: 3 slots, 4 teams

Independent (0 Access/Semi slots, 3 additional, 3 total) - Army, Navy, and BYU all have agreements with bowls, while Notre Dame has the ACC deal. ND is out of the access picture in the latest CBS projection, meaning they will take an ACC slot. Army will not fill theirs.

Prediction: 3 slots, 3 teams

Summary
SEC: Independence open (CUSA/AAC? backup)
Big 12: none
Big 10: none
Pac 12: 1 extra team
ACC: with ND, they will come out without an extra slot/team
AAC: 1 extra team
CUSA: 1 extra team
MWC: 1 extra team
MAC: 2 extra teams
SBC: 1 extra team
Indy: Armed Forces open, Notre Dame uses ACC slot

So, in this scenario, you have only the Independence Bowl and Armed Forces Bowl slots open, with P12/AAC/CUSA/MWC/MAC/MAC/SBC as the extra teams, assuming no wheeling and dealing (and there inevitably will be).

CUSA will exercise its backup agreement with Independence (or will they? AAC also claims this slot) if WKU can become CUSA's 7th bowl eligible team. Would be a shame for CUSA to not fill Independence vs. ACC. That leaves Armed Forces, who would likely take the Pac 12 team. That's all folks.

Saw this tidbit on the Indy from quo vadis on the AAC board.

Quote:I actually contacted the Independence Bowl about this a few weeks ago.

Their rep told me that this year, if both the AAC and CUSA have teams available for the Indy and there is only one spot open for them (i.e., the ACC or SEC fails to fill its spot but not both), then it is the Indy Bowl's choice as to whether to take the CUSA or AAC team.

In later years through 2019, should the same situation arise, the conference not chosen in 2014 will automatically get it and from then on it is rotational with no discretion by the bowl with regard to which backup conference gets a team in.

So this year, an AAC team could be chosen by the Indy over a CUSA team, or vice-versa, it is purely up to the bowl.

Why do you still have an access in AAC. Its either cusa or mwc at this point unless you are assuming a loss from marshall, csu and boise?

FAU, FIU, ODU, UTSA, USM, and UNT all need to win out to be eligible. Tough since several of them play each other. UAB has LA Tech, Marshall, and USM; that's no easy task for the Blazers.

(11-02-2014 12:26 PM)UABGrad Wrote:  Saw this tidbit on the Indy from quo vadis on the AAC board.

Quote:I actually contacted the Independence Bowl about this a few weeks ago.

Their rep told me that this year, if both the AAC and CUSA have teams available for the Indy and there is only one spot open for them (i.e., the ACC or SEC fails to fill its spot but not both), then it is the Indy Bowl's choice as to whether to take the CUSA or AAC team.

In later years through 2019, should the same situation arise, the conference not chosen in 2014 will automatically get it and from then on it is rotational with no discretion by the bowl with regard to which backup conference gets a team in.

So this year, an AAC team could be chosen by the Indy over a CUSA team, or vice-versa, it is purely up to the bowl.

...but I wonder if they have to take both C-USA & AAC if ACC & SEC fail to qualify. Some predictions now have AAC vs. a B1G at large.

If the Miners win in Bowling Green next Saturday, they will virtually eliminate the Toppers whilst punching their bowl ticket. Will be interesting to watch.

(11-02-2014 01:00 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  ...but I wonder if they have to take both C-USA & AAC if ACC & SEC fail to qualify. Some predictions now have AAC vs. a B1G at large.

Sounding less likely that we can leave a bowl open (say Hawaii, Boca Raton, or Bahamas) and grab the Indy. Will get ugly for Rice, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP when someone is odd man out for Heart of Dallas and New Mexico, and gets shipped far away. Got to beat Marshall.

Palm might have it right with one of the west teams grabbing Boca.

(11-02-2014 01:19 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  Palm might have it right with one of the west teams grabbing Boca.

God, I hope not.

My guess for the three scenarios...

If Marshall is in the Peach, then here's the lineup that makes sense to me...
Marshall to Peach
Rice/La Tech winner to Dallas
Rice/La Tech loser to Hawaii
MTSU to Bahamas
UAB to Boca Raton
UTEP to New Mexico

If Marshall is the league champion and does not get an Access Bowl, then I think you can get this...
Marshall to Dallas
Rice/La Tech winner to Independence (by shopping division champ as at-large for best matchup)
Rice/LaTech loser to Hawaii
MTSU to Bahamas
UAB to Boca
UTEP to New Mexico.

If the west division wins the league title, then I think you get this...
Rice/La Tech winner to Dallas
Marshall to Bahamas
MTSU to Boca Raton
UTEP to New Mexico
- I think you try to find a spot for Rice/LaTech in an at large game thus sending UAB to Hawaii. Otherwise, Hawaii will take their pick of the remaining two.

(11-02-2014 01:06 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(11-02-2014 01:00 PM)BeliefBlazer Wrote:  ...but I wonder if they have to take both C-USA & AAC if ACC & SEC fail to qualify. Some predictions now have AAC vs. a B1G at large.

Sounding less likely that we can leave a bowl open (say Hawaii, Boca Raton, or Bahamas) and grab the Indy. Will get ugly for Rice, Louisiana Tech, and UTEP when someone is odd man out for Heart of Dallas and New Mexico, and gets shipped far away. Got to beat Marshall.

If either the New Mexico Bowl or HOD want high attendance they will go with UTEP over everybody else. UTEP has a very large alumni base in Dallas (the biggest outside of El Paso). I think it would be safe to say UTEP would bring 10k+ to either game.

UTEP is a lock for the New Mexico Bowl

(11-02-2014 05:00 PM)Afflicted Wrote:  UTEP is a lock for the New Mexico Bowl

And MT is a lock for Nassau.

It is truly refreshing to have a bowl discussion and see the letters UAB mentioned. We've got a ways to go but November usually means we've already turned our attention to basketball.