These teams control their own destinies in the race for the 2014 C-USA Football Championship:

Louisiana Tech
Marshall
Rice


These teams need help:

FAU
FIU
Middle Tennessee
UAB
UTEP
UTSA
Western Kentucky


These teams are beyond help:

ODU
North Texas
Southern Miss

Southern Miss is also mathematically eliminated. After a quick run through, I'm also pretty sure ODU is eliminated (I see no remaining possible tiebreak scenarios which ODU can win).

UNT :(

(11-01-2014 11:50 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  Southern Miss is also mathematically eliminated. After a quick run through, I'm also pretty sure ODU is eliminated (I see no remaining possible tiebreak scenarios which ODU can win).

Yeah, the standings I was looking at weren't updated with Southern Miss' loss yet. I fixed it. I'll just wait a week or so on ODU and WKU. That'll save me from having to prove it.

I was bored and I like these logic things so here's definitive proof ODU is officially eliminated.

Mathematically, they have to win out and Marshall and MTSU have to lose out. Those things put conference records at...

Marshall 4-4
MTSU 4-4
ODU 4-4
UAB 4-2
FAU 3-4
FIU 3-4
WKU 2-4

UAB would have to lose to their two West teams, putting them at 4-4 so now we have...

Marshall 4-4
MTSU 4-4
ODU 4-4
UAB 4-4
FAU 3-4
FIU 3-4
WKU 2-4

That leaves 4 uncertain interdivisional games. Each FL team plays UNT while WKU has UTEP and UTSA. That leaves 16 possibilities. I'm not going to look at all of them, but we know the following. ODU has to have a 6 way tie. This is true because they would lose any 5 way tie with Marshall, MTSU, and UAB because they are 0-2 against those teams (they don't play UAB) and at least one other team in the tiebreaker would have to be better than 1-2 against the other tied teams.

Furthermore, WKU can't be involved in any tiebreaker because that would give ODU 3 losses among tied teams. Marshall can't have more than 2 losses in any tiebreaker involving tied teams so neither can ODU. This means the only scenario left is the 6 way tie not involving WKU.

In that scenario, one of Marshall's losses, WKU, is no longer counted amongst tied teams so they are 4-1 and ODU is 2-2. We're now out of possibilities.

TL/DR? Marshall screws ODU out of even the most ridiculous tiebreaker in every scenario. They are officially eliminated and I need a life.

(11-02-2014 01:21 AM)keebler645 Wrote:  I was bored and I like these logic things so here's definitive proof ODU is officially eliminated.

Mathematically, they have to win out and Marshall and MTSU have to lose out. Those things put conference records at...

Marshall 4-4
MTSU 4-4
ODU 4-4
UAB 4-2
FAU 3-4
FIU 3-4
WKU 2-4

UAB would have to lose to their two West teams, putting them at 4-4 so now we have...

Marshall 4-4
MTSU 4-4
ODU 4-4
UAB 4-4
FAU 3-4
FIU 3-4
WKU 2-4

That leaves 4 uncertain interdivisional games. Each FL team plays UNT while WKU has UTEP and UTSA. That leaves 16 possibilities. I'm not going to look at all of them, but we know the following. ODU has to have a 6 way tie. This is true because they would lose any 5 way tie with Marshall, MTSU, and UAB because they are 0-2 against those teams (they don't play UAB) and at least one other team in the tiebreaker would have to be better than 1-2 against the other tied teams.

Furthermore, WKU can't be involved in any tiebreaker because that would give ODU 3 losses among tied teams. Marshall can't have more than 2 losses in any tiebreaker involving tied teams so neither can ODU. This means the only scenario left is the 6 way tie not involving WKU.

In that scenario, one of Marshall's losses, WKU, is no longer counted amongst tied teams so they are 4-1 and ODU is 2-2. We're now out of possibilities.

TL/DR? Marshall screws ODU out of even the most ridiculous tiebreaker in every scenario. They are officially eliminated and I need a life.

Ok, that was awesome. You sure you didn't go to Rice?

Also, WKU is in fact eliminated. They likewise need to win out and have Marshall and MTSU lose out. Then we're at...

Marshall 4-4
MTSU 4-4
WKU 4-4
UAB 4-2
FAU 3-3
FIU 3-3
ODU 1-4

And again, UAB has to lose their 2 West games. Now we're at...

Marshall 4-4
MTSU 4-4
WKU 4-4
UAB 4-4
FAU 3-3
FIU 3-3
ODU 1-4

MTSU is WKU's problem here. If those four 4-4 teams ended tied, MTSU wins with a 2-1 head to head while WKU is 1-2. So WKU needs at least a 5 team tie, but they can never improve over MTSU's record amongst tied teams.

Both lost to FAU in this scenario so adding them to the tiebreaker does nothing for WKU.
Both beat ODU so adding them to the tiebreaker does nothing for WKU.
FIU beats MTSU in this scenario but WKU doesn't play them. That leaves MTSU at 2-2 and WKU at 1-2. Still not good enough.

We're out of teams and ways to help WKU. They're gone. I still don't have a life.

(11-02-2014 01:29 AM)MUther Wrote:  Ok, that was awesome. You sure you didn't go to Rice?

Lol, thanks. I've lived in Texas for 5 months now. Maybe I'm close enough to where it's rubbed off.

Funny that in both cases having 7 teams in the east seems to odd-man-out someone and mess up someone's chances. The non-common opponent forces the elimination.

Yeah, thankfully that won't matter in reality. I was wondering how they determined which teams in the East wouldn't play each other when they made the schedules.

What the hell, we're breaking hearts tonight. UTSA is eliminated too. They'd have to win out, LT has to lose out. That brings us to...

LT 5-3
UTSA 5-3
Rice 4-2
UTEP 3-1

UTSA can't win head to head against LT and can't win a 4 way tie or a 3 way tie with UTEP because of the loss to UTEP.

So that means their only hope is a 3 way tie with LT and Rice. They'd all be 1-1 against each other so it then goes to division record. Which looks like...

LT 4-1
UTSA 3-2
Rice 4-1 or 3-2

Doesn't matter what Rice does. UTSA can't beat LT. They're gone.

(11-02-2014 02:21 AM)keebler645 Wrote:  What the hell, we're breaking hearts tonight. UTSA is eliminated too. They'd have to win out, LT has to lose out. That brings us to...

LT 5-3
UTSA 5-3
Rice 4-2
UTEP 3-1

UTSA can't win head to head against LT and can't win a 4 way tie or a 3 way tie with UTEP because of the loss to UTEP.

So that means their only ho
pe is a 3 way tie with LT and Rice. They'd all be 1-1 against each other so it then goes to division record. Which looks like...

LT 4-1
UTSA 3-2
Rice 4-1 or 3-2

Doesn't matter what Rice does. UTSA can't beat LT. They're gone.

I told yall we were out of contention 2 losses ago. All we can do now is play for pride and play spoiler. Maybe somehow we can win out and get to 500.