Now that the World Series is over, we can put the 2014 season thread to bed finally with over 800 posts...

What are folks thoughts on the moves that will shape the 2015 season? Believe I saw right now 121 free agents with more to come as options get declined etc.

my team doesnt need anything, as we just won the WS

I haven't tried to evaluate teams needs and resources. I usually wait to see what happens, because you never can tell what happens in the off season. There are always surprises.

(10-30-2014 09:03 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  I haven't tried to evaluate teams needs and resources. I usually wait to see what happens, because you never can tell what happens in the off season. There are always surprises.

well i think there are some guarantees and other things we can speculate. Seems clear that the Red Sox and Yankees are in the market for 3rd basemen. The top two are Sandoval and Headley, while Plouffe could be a trade target.

Sandoval- Solid, but overrated player. I think people often think of him as a perennial all star caliber hitter, but his play over the past 3 seasons says otherwise. OPS+ by season:
2012- 123
2013- 116
2014- 111

Fangraphs WAR and BABIP:
2012: 2.6 / .301
2013: 2.3 / .301
2014: 3.0 / .300

At this point, it looks like the next 3 years of Sandoval will net you around 9 WAR, with a sharp decline likely to happen after that. Do you really want to give him at least 5/100 and a 1st round draft pick?

Headley- League average hitter, but a quality fielder and comes cheaper than Sandoval, as well as not having to part with a draft pick.
Fangraphs WAR:
2012: 7.2
2013: 3.6
2014: 4.4

You're likely to never see that 7.2 season again, but I think the 30 year old Headley is likely to give you 9-12 WAR over the next 3 seasons, at a much lower price than Sandoval.

The bigger question is, what will become of the big 3 free agent pitchers? Shields is obviously the worst of the 3, while Lester and Scherzer are of similar quality and age. To me the biggest question is, which teams have the money and the need?

Cubs- Not only do they have a ton of money, but word is Epstein is ready to make a splash. He's very familiar with Lester, so you have to imagine the Cubs are a frontrunner for his services.

Giants- Other than Zito, giving big money to a free agent pitcher is not usually Sabean's style, but this team has a pretty weak starting rotation and after winning a 3rd title in 5 years you have to imagine they'll be able to increase the payroll and just print money. I don't expect it, but don't be surprised if they go after one of the pitchers.

Dodgers- We've all read about how the Dodgers intend to decrease the payroll by around 40 million, but I'll believe it when i see it. I imagine they'd like to add a starter so as not to have to use Kershaw on 3 days rest in the postseason.

Yankees- No way they sit on the sidelines, even if they should. It's important to have strong left handed pitching in that ballpark. Gotta think they'll kick the tires on Lester.

Red Sox- If they want to compete again next year, they'll have to replace Lackey and Lester. Gotta think they'll kick the tires as well.

Blue Jays- Always a darkhorse for making a big splash.

Orioles- Don't usually spend big money, but man do they need a couple pitchers. With Machado and Wieters hurt, their pitching was totally exposed.

Other options are Tigers, Angels, Royals (for Shields only) and even the Rangers. That one wouldn't shock me. They had a terrible season, but most of that was the result of some really bad injury luck

the one that will be interesting to watch for me is the Braves. They have to do something about that offense.

(10-30-2014 10:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the one that will be interesting to watch for me is the Braves. They have to do something about that offense.

beyond yasmany tomas, sandoval, Martin and melky cabrera, is there a bat on the market that can make any kind of difference to their offense? Victor Martinez is a great hitter, but the Braves can't sign him. From where I'm standing, their only option is to make a trade. Their other problem is that they currently only have position that isn't settled for next season and it just happens to be the weakest position in all of baseball. Unless they commit to benching Johnson or Upton, I don't see any position, other than 2B, being available for an upgrade

(10-30-2014 06:51 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  my team doesnt need anything, as we just won the WS

Then why are the Giants seemingly uninterested in resigning Sandoval?

(10-31-2014 10:10 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(10-30-2014 06:51 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  my team doesnt need anything, as we just won the WS

Then why are the Giants seemingly uninterested in resigning Sandoval?

i've wanted him to be a red for years

(10-31-2014 10:10 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(10-30-2014 06:51 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  my team doesnt need anything, as we just won the WS

Then why are the Giants seemingly uninterested in resigning Sandoval?

Who says they aren't interested? I'm personally not interested, as I don't think he's that good

Compared to other 3b he's really good. What other 3b are out there that are that good? Kind of like fantasy baseball- position scarcity. 3b as a whole has fallen off quite considerably here in the last 10 years or so. Right now the avg ops of the 3b in the playoffs- 108. With only 3 really better than him- Donaldson, Rendon, and Uribe. And given how good he is in the playoffs(50-137 last 2 times)- that alone is huge. Probably don't win the series w/o him this year.

Also- not sure why you say he's going to sharply decline in 3 years. He's only 28 right now. Still got a good 5-6 years before one would expect a sharp decline.

over the past 3 seasons he's ranked 17th in WAR amongst ML 3B, behind such players as Headley, Carpenter, Frazier, Prado, Uribe and Zimmerman. This season he was 11th, barely ahead of Valbuena and Prado. Is he a good player? Yes, can you get similar value for a lot less than $20 million per year? Yes again.

And I say he's going to decline because he's fat as a house. He came into this season in better shape and supposedly gained 20 lbs over the course of the season. If you gave him a 5 or 6 year deal, would you expect him to be in great shape by the time he's 31? I think that's one helluva gamble for a guy who derived more than half of his value this season from his defense, which visibly declined as the season wore on and he gained more and more weight. Listen, as a hitter you know exactly what you're going to get from him: 7% BB rate, 13% K rate and a 110-115 wRC+. But as a defender his value is tied directly to his weight. Would I like to have the Panda back? Of course, but not at 5/100. I just think people are missing the point about the panda. I think the Panda is a good player, no doubt about it, but for 5/100 it's a gross overpay. He's a negative on the bases, a slight positive in the field and a decent positive, although hardly all star caliber, at the plate. Why not take that money and invest it in other facets of the game? Maybe try to get a right handed bat for LF, or a 3rd starter. Any competent GM should be able to use $15 million and replace his 3 WAR. Hell, joe panik played only 73 games and accrued 1.6 WAR. Andrew Susac earned .8 WAR in 95 plate appearances. The Panda can be replaced, just like Pagan, melky cabrera, cain, scutaro, and Panda in 2010 (after having a great 2009), etc.

I seriously doubt he'll get 20 million. David Wright is the highest paid 3b and he got 19 million. Do not think any 3b is getting that money even.... Maybe 5/75-80 or something like that.

And would love to see what his war was in the playoffs.

(10-31-2014 02:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I seriously doubt he'll get 20 million. David Wright is the highest paid 3b and he got 19 million. Do not think any 3b is getting that money even.... Maybe 5/75-80 or something like that.

And would love to see what his war was in the playoffs.

Well everyone seems to be expecting 5/100. Just going on what I've heard. Look at the dearth of hitting on the market and in baseball overall

I don't judge a guy based on less than 100 ab, that's lunacy. Against the nationals he was 4-19 with an ops of .513. If the giants lose that series, he's a horrible postseason player. See how fleeting it is? Pence was horrible in the 2012 postseason and great in the 2014 world series. So is he a great postseason hitter or a bad one?

Btw Jon heyman just tweeted that the price tag is still $100 million plus

Do you think sandoval is a better hitter in the postseason?

(10-31-2014 05:30 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(10-31-2014 02:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I seriously doubt he'll get 20 million. David Wright is the highest paid 3b and he got 19 million. Do not think any 3b is getting that money even.... Maybe 5/75-80 or something like that.

And would love to see what his war was in the playoffs.

Well everyone seems to be expecting 5/100. Just going on what I've heard. Look at the dearth of hitting on the market and in baseball overall

I don't judge a guy based on less than 100 ab, that's lunacy. Against the nationals he was 4-19 with an ops of .513. If the giants lose that series, he's a horrible postseason player. See how fleeting it is? Pence was horrible in the 2012 postseason and great in the 2014 world series. So is he a great postseason hitter or a bad one?

He was 1-7 in the 18 inning game. 3-12 in the other 3 games. And that was the only series he didn't bat at least .300 in the last 2 post seasons.

His CAREER postseason OPS is .935. His career regular season OPS is .811. He's at least as good in the postseason as he is during the regular season. That's a huge thing. Better than say Buster Posey who had exactly as many extra base hits this postseason as you and me and barry bonds combined. Panda had as many extra base hits this year as Posey has had in his career in the postseason.

100/5 may be what he's asking- but wouldn't be shocked to see him go back to SF for a smidge less.

(11-01-2014 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-31-2014 05:30 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(10-31-2014 02:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I seriously doubt he'll get 20 million. David Wright is the highest paid 3b and he got 19 million. Do not think any 3b is getting that money even.... Maybe 5/75-80 or something like that.

And would love to see what his war was in the playoffs.

Well everyone seems to be expecting 5/100. Just going on what I've heard. Look at the dearth of hitting on the market and in baseball overall

I don't judge a guy based on less than 100 ab, that's lunacy. Against the nationals he was 4-19 with an ops of .513. If the giants lose that series, he's a horrible postseason player. See how fleeting it is? Pence was horrible in the 2012 postseason and great in the 2014 world series. So is he a great postseason hitter or a bad one?

He was 1-7 in the 18 inning game. 3-12 in the other 3 games. And that was the only series he didn't bat at least .300 in the last 2 post seasons.

His CAREER postseason OPS is .935. His career regular season OPS is .811. He's at least as good in the postseason as he is during the regular season. That's a huge thing. Better than say Buster Posey who had exactly as many extra base hits this postseason as you and me and barry bonds combined. Panda had as many extra base hits this year as Posey has had in his career in the postseason.

100/5 may be what he's asking- but wouldn't be shocked to see him go back to SF for a smidge less.

I'm aware of the numbers, but I see no reason he should perform better in the postseason than the regular season. Are you going to give him a huge contract because you believe he's "clutch"? There's no such thing as great postseason players or bad postseason players. There's just players who are good or not.

What do you think an acceptable contract is for him?

it also helps that he had a .433 BABIP in the postseason. Good luck repeating that

so you're saying he got lucky? That's a joke. That BABIP in a lot of ways is a joke. A lot of those hits were hits no matter what the defense was.

And the fact is a lot of guys aren't as good in the postseason as they were in the regular season. To have a guy that is at least as good is rare. see Barry Bonds- and that's with 1 incredible postseason.

(11-01-2014 01:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so you're saying he got lucky? That's a joke. That BABIP in a lot of ways is a joke. A lot of those hits were hits no matter what the defense was.

And the fact is a lot of guys aren't as good in the postseason as they were in the regular season. To have a guy that is at least as good is rare. see Barry Bonds- and that's with 1 incredible postseason.

you're talking about such small sample sizes. I mean you make a statement that bonds wasn't good in the postseason and then turn around and say he had 1 incredible postseason. So which was it, was he a bad postseason player, or not? If he was bad how could he have had one of the greatest postseasons of all time? And yes I know his overall numbers were worse in the postseason, but that doesn't mean he was a different hitter. That's the point I'm trying to make.

We all know the panda's numbers are better in the postseason, but my point is, as a GM, are you going to count on him performing better in every postseason in which he plays? It's absurd to suggest that because he performed really well in 5 of the 6 postseason series in which he had at least 17 PA, it means he's somehow a better player in the postseason. Yes, his numbers have been better in the postseason, but he's no different. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're making the statement that his better performance in the postseason is an inherent skill like being able to turn on inside pitches, or joey votto's plate discipline. Am I understanding you correctly?

If panda was this kind of hitter, don't you think his regular season numbers were be less pedestrian? In 2 of the 3 series this year, he hit over .400. If he's capable of just flipping a switch (against some of the best pitching in the league) why did he end up with a .739 ops this season? Did he have a secret plan to be slightly above average during the season, let everyone else do the heavy lifting and then turn it on in the postseason? What a ludicrous assertion. In this case you're kramer and I'm elaine