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Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
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quo vadis Online
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Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
Looking at the CFP top 25, a few things stand out:

1) Despite all the SOS talk, LOSSES still matter most. The two major unbeaten teams are ranked #1 and #2. Then, the next 16 places are held by teams with 1 loss. There is no two-loss team before #18 Oklahoma, and the only 1-loss teams that are ranked behind any two-loss teams are #24 Duke and #23 ECU, teams that have played abjectly weak schedules.

2) Overall SOS doesn't matter as much as high-end SOS. For example, TCU is given a lot of love by the committee, they are ranked #7, three spots higher than their AP ranking of #10. That's probably because they have played two ranked teams - #13 Baylor and #15 Oklahoma - despite an overall Sagarin SOS of 48.

3) Easily, the most impactful game of the season so far has been FSU versus Notre Dame. FSU won the game and sits at #2, and will clearly make the playoffs if they win out. Notre Dame is at #10, and will need a whole lot of help to make the playoffs even if they win out.

Except for their game against each other, they have nearly identical resumes. Both have six other wins against nondescript opponents and an overall SOS of around 40. But because FSU won their game, they are one of two unbeatens and hence #2 (see point #1 above) whereas because they lost, ND is just one of many one-loss teams and their resume doesn't stand out at all.

Since it is very likely that Notre Dame would be #2 and FSU #10 had ND won the game, the offensive PI call that cost ND that game is looming hugely over this season.

4) There isn't much of a discrepancy between the CFP Top 25 and the AP top 25 (see comparison below). Only one team that is unranked by the AP is in the CFP Top 25, and this is #25 Louisville. Also, the largest discrepancy between rankings is just +/- 4 (Notre Dame, #6 AP/#10 CFP) and only five other schools vary by as many as 3 positions, while 11 teams are either exactly the same in both polls or differ by just a single position.

5) Of the teams outside of the top 4, only Alabama clearly controls its own destiny. With games remaining against both #1 MSU and #3 Auburn, Alabama will surely be in if they win out. That is not true of anyone else, including #5 Oregon, though they are likely to get in because Ole Miss and Mississippi State play each other as well.

Here's a comparison between the CFP Top 25 and the AP poll. AP poll ranking in parentheses:

1) Mississippi State (1) ..... 0
2) FSU (2) ....................... 0
3) Auburn (4) .................. +1
4) Ole Miss (7) ................ +3
5) Oregon (5) ................. 0
6) Alabama (3) ............... -3
7) TCU (10) ................... +3
8) Michigan St (8) ........... 0
9) K-State (11) ............... +2
10) Notre Dame (6) ......... -4
11) Georgia (9) ............... -2
12) Arizona (14) ............. +2
13) Baylor (12) ............... -1
14) AZ-State (15) ........... +1
15) Nebraska (17) .......... +2
16) Ohio State (13) ......... -3
17) Utah (18) ................. -1
18) Oklahoma (19) ......... +1
19) LSU (16) ................... -3
20) WVU (20) ..................0
21) Clemson (22) ............ +1
22) UCLA (25) .................+3
23) ECU (21) ...................-2
24) Duke (24) ..................0
25) Louisville (unranked) ...+1
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 07:36 PM by quo vadis.)
10-28-2014 07:31 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 07:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Looking at the CFP top 25, a few things stand out:

1) Despite all the SOS talk, LOSSES still matter most. The two major unbeaten teams are ranked #1 and #2. Then, the next 16 places are held by teams with 1 loss. There is no two-loss team before #18 Oklahoma, and the only 1-loss teams that are ranked behind any two-loss teams are #24 Duke and #23 ECU, teams that have played abjectly weak schedules.

2) Overall SOS doesn't matter as much as high-end SOS. For example, TCU is given a lot of love by the committee, they are ranked #7, three spots higher than their AP ranking of #10. That's probably because they have played three ranked teams - #13 Baylor and #15 Oklahoma - despite an overall Sagarin SOS of 48.

3) Easily, the most impactful game of the season so far has been FSU versus Notre Dame. FSU won the game and sits at #2, and will clearly make the playoffs if they win out. Notre Dame is at #10, and will need a whole lot of help to make the playoffs even if they win out.

Except for their game against each other, they have nearly identical resumes. Both have six other wins against nondescript opponents and an overall SOS of around 40. But because FSU won their game, they are one of two unbeatens and hence #2 (see point #1 above) whereas because they lost, ND is just one of many one-loss teams and their resume doesn't stand out at all.

Since it is very likely that Notre Dame would be #2 and FSU #10 had ND won the game, the offensive PI call that cost ND that game is looming hugely over this season.

4) There isn't much of a discrepancy between the CFP Top 25 and the AP top 25 (see comparison below). Only one team that is unranked by the AP is in the CFP Top 25, and this is #25 Louisville. Also, the largest discrepancy between rankings is just +/- 4 (Notre Dame, #6 AP/#10 CFP) and only five other schools vary by as many as 3 positions, while 11 teams are either exactly the same in both polls or differ by just a single position.

5) Of the teams outside of the top 4, only Alabama clearly controls its own destiny. With games remaining against both #1 MSU and #3 Auburn, Alabama will surely be in if they win out. That is not true of anyone else, including #5 Oregon, though they are likely to get in because Ole Miss and Mississippi State play each other as well.

Here's a comparison between the CFP Top 25 and the AP poll. AP poll ranking in parentheses:

1) Mississippi State (1) ..... 0
2) FSU (2) ....................... 0
3) Auburn (4) .................. +1
4) Ole Miss (7) ................ +3
5) Oregon (5) ................. 0
6) Alabama (3) ............... -3
7) TCU (10) ................... +3
8) Michigan St (8) ........... 0
9) K-State (11) ............... +2
10) Notre Dame (6) ......... -4
11) Georgia (9) ............... -2
12) Arizona (14) ............. +2
13) Baylor (12) ............... -1
14) AZ-State (15) ........... +1
15) Nebraska (17) .......... +2
16) Ohio State (13) ......... -3
17) Utah (18) ................. -1
18) Oklahoma (19) ......... +1
19) LSU (16) ................... -3
20) WVU (20) ..................0
21) Clemson (22) ............ +1
22) UCLA (25) .................+3
23) ECU (21) ...................-2
24) Duke (24) ..................0
25) Louisville (unranked) ...+1

I view that as a pretty big discrepancy.
You wouldn't expect them to have Louisville in the top 10.
10-28-2014 07:34 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
I think it doesn't really matter much that they have most of the same teams in their top 25 as the AP has. I think most folks would come up with the same or similar teams. That is due to the obvious nature of those programs. What is telling about the differences between the AP pollsters and the Committee is where those teams are placed. The differences such as with Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Alabama and even Ohio State tell us quite a bit about their mindset and how they are seeing things.

One could easily say they are paying less attention to the tradition and name of a program.
10-28-2014 07:37 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 07:37 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One could easily say they are paying less attention to the tradition and name of a program.

That is at least one positive.

Agree with Quo. The focus is more on high end SOS than overall SOS. What is your best win? What is your worst loss?

Its like the NCAA basketball committee which I predicted. The focus is on quality wins and losses. Its not a bubble poll where Ole Miss gets placed behind Alabama because lost a game more recently than Alabama.
10-28-2014 08:02 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 07:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  You wouldn't expect them to have Louisville in the top 10.

Why? They are "30th" in the AP and 25th here. Not a huge difference..


We'll see how it pans out. My prediction had been; and still is, that the final committe poll mirrors the AP poll in most major areas: top 4 teams, top 10 teams (same teams, not necessarily the exact same order) and +/- two spots after that. Probably the highest ranked non-power team as well.

But we will see.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 08:07 PM by adcorbett.)
10-28-2014 08:04 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 08:04 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 07:34 PM)bullet Wrote:  You wouldn't expect them to have Louisville in the top 10.

Why? They are "30th" in the AP and 25th here. Not a huge difference..


We'll see how it pans out. My prediction had been; and still is, that the final committe poll mirrors the AP poll in most major areas: top 4 teams, top 10 teams (same teams, not necessarily the exact same order) and +/- two spots after that. Probably the highest ranked non-power team as well.

But we will see.

The UL comment was a response to his statement that the polls looked pretty similar. It would be pretty odd if a team ranked 34th in the coaches made the top 10. 3 spots for a lot of teams is a big difference. And right now there is a pretty big gap between #25 and #26 in the polls. There just aren't many teams top 25 worthy.
10-28-2014 08:11 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 08:02 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 07:37 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One could easily say they are paying less attention to the tradition and name of a program.

That is at least one positive.

Agree with Quo. The focus is more on high end SOS than overall SOS. What is your best win? What is your worst loss?

Its like the NCAA basketball committee which I predicted. The focus is on quality wins and losses. Its not a bubble poll where Ole Miss gets placed behind Alabama because lost a game more recently than Alabama.

My ten cent opinion.

I agree this looks much like a selection committee would be expected to act looking more at "quality wins" and "bad losses".

But releasing pre-polls may not be a great idea because fans are conditioned to expect such polls to track the trend of the last game.

More importantly they are charged with giving great weight to winning your conference, in seven of 10 conferences the champion will not be determined until the final week.

I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.
10-28-2014 10:36 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 08:02 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 07:37 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  One could easily say they are paying less attention to the tradition and name of a program.

That is at least one positive.

Agree with Quo. The focus is more on high end SOS than overall SOS. What is your best win? What is your worst loss?

Its like the NCAA basketball committee which I predicted. The focus is on quality wins and losses. Its not a bubble poll where Ole Miss gets placed behind Alabama because lost a game more recently than Alabama.

My ten cent opinion.

I agree this looks much like a selection committee would be expected to act looking more at "quality wins" and "bad losses".

But releasing pre-polls may not be a great idea because fans are conditioned to expect such polls to track the trend of the last game.

More importantly they are charged with giving great weight to winning your conference, in seven of 10 conferences the champion will not be determined until the final week.

I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.
They really aren't though. It's a consideration- but the committee isn't told to rate the conference championship any higher than any of the other criteria like head to head, SOS. There's no weighting system where Conference championship is worth x% or anything like that. It's all in the eye of the beholder.
10-28-2014 11:35 PM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.
10-29-2014 06:17 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

How so? Other than a close loss to unbeaten FSU, where is the body of work? Stanford is probably their best win and Stanford isn't as good as expected. Their ranking seems about right to me, although there are a couple of teams below them that I might have ranked higher. Please tell us how Notre Dame was screwed, especially since the ranking just shows how the committee ranks them on this day. I believe the Irish are in a good position to vault into the playoff conversation if they win out.
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2014 07:03 AM by Zombiewoof.)
10-29-2014 07:02 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

Notre Dame didn't really get screwed...look at their schedule and who did they actually beat...10 is about right...07-coffee3
10-29-2014 07:12 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
If this poll holds serve and 2/3 SEC teams are in the final four then the other P5 conferences this will likely expedite the eight team playoff sooner than later.....

Which is fine by me. Of course my alma mater has no shot at ever sniffing this thing so maybe I will just stop watching it all completely.
10-29-2014 07:21 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 07:21 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  If this poll holds serve and 2/3 SEC teams are in the final four then the other P5 conferences this will likely expedite the eight team playoff sooner than later.....

Which is fine by me. Of course my alma mater has no shot at ever sniffing this thing so maybe I will just stop watching it all completely.

I'm rooting for an all SEC playoff personally.
10-29-2014 07:30 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  My ten cent opinion.

I agree this looks much like a selection committee would be expected to act looking more at "quality wins" and "bad losses".

But releasing pre-polls may not be a great idea because fans are conditioned to expect such polls to track the trend of the last game.

More importantly they are charged with giving great weight to winning your conference, in seven of 10 conferences the champion will not be determined until the final week.

I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

Spot on.
10-29-2014 08:17 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 07:12 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

Notre Dame didn't really get screwed...look at their schedule and who did they actually beat...10 is about right...07-coffee3

Only one I have an issue with MSU being higher.... ND is at a disadvantage by not being in a conference and that will become more apparent as this goes on. If we lose again then non of it matters so I am letting it play out.
10-29-2014 08:21 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 07:02 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

How so? Other than a close loss to unbeaten FSU, where is the body of work? Stanford is probably their best win and Stanford isn't as good as expected. Their ranking seems about right to me, although there are a couple of teams below them that I might have ranked higher. Please tell us how Notre Dame was screwed, especially since the ranking just shows how the committee ranks them on this day. I believe the Irish are in a good position to vault into the playoff conversation if they win out.

Here's how: If you look at FSU and remove the ND-FSU game, FSU's body of work is no different than Notre Dame's. In fact, Sagarin has ND's SOS at 36, FSU's at 43. But FSU is 8 spots higher, at #2.

So essentially, the committee is saying that FSU beating Notre Dame, at home and by the slimmest of margins, in a game where ND led almost the whole way and lost on a controversial call at the buzzer, is worth the difference between being #2 and #10 in the poll, when in fact, that game was essentially a tie so FSU shouldn't be ranked ahead of Notre Dame at all.

Beyond that, I can go down the list: ND's SOS is better than Michigan State's, and ND has a much much better loss than Michigan State, and yet ND is 2 spots behind them.

TCU's SOS is 12 spots worse than ND's, and yet TCU was boosted +3 to #7 in the CFP compared to the AP poll while ND was dropped -4 and 3 spots behind them.

Oregon's SOS is 10 spots worse than ND's, and they are 5 spots ahead in the CFP.

Really, nobody but the top SEC teams should be ranked ahead of Notre Dame.
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2014 08:24 AM by quo vadis.)
10-29-2014 08:23 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 07:02 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

How so? Other than a close loss to unbeaten FSU, where is the body of work? Stanford is probably their best win and Stanford isn't as good as expected. Their ranking seems about right to me, although there are a couple of teams below them that I might have ranked higher. Please tell us how Notre Dame was screwed, especially since the ranking just shows how the committee ranks them on this day. I believe the Irish are in a good position to vault into the playoff conversation if they win out.

Exactly, at this point Notre Dame hasn't beaten anyone that's currently ranked in the CFP poll. Looking at their wins this year you have

Rice
Michigan
Purdue
Syracuse
Stanford
UNC

The only team in that that's even slightly impressive is Stanford and they are only 5-3. Notre Dame is being given credit in the coaches and AP polls because a) they are Notre dame, and b) they had a really close loss to FSU. A close loss with zero current top 25 wins doesn't make you playoff worthy. They have a few games coming up that if they win they'll move up. @Arizona State, Louisville, and @USC will show what kind of team they really are.
10-29-2014 08:24 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 08:21 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 07:12 AM)Maize Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

Notre Dame didn't really get screwed...look at their schedule and who did they actually beat...10 is about right...07-coffee3

Only one I have an issue with MSU being higher.... ND is at a disadvantage by not being in a conference and that will become more apparent as this goes on. If we lose again then non of it matters so I am letting it play out.

What really hurt ND was Michigan being awful...win out still a opportunity to make the playoffs...worst case would be going to either the Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl.
10-29-2014 08:26 AM
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RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
(10-29-2014 08:24 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 07:02 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  
(10-29-2014 06:17 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-28-2014 10:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think looking at the rankings they showed some discipline in not presuming the current conference leader will be the champion, but if they sit down for that final meeting suddenly bump champs up because 1) they are awarded extra merit for the trophy as they've been asked to and 2) give the champs credit for an additional quality win (which it will be in several cases, the moves in the final poll could be rather jarring.

The more I think about it, the more I conclude Notre Dame was screwed in these initial rankings.

How so? Other than a close loss to unbeaten FSU, where is the body of work? Stanford is probably their best win and Stanford isn't as good as expected. Their ranking seems about right to me, although there are a couple of teams below them that I might have ranked higher. Please tell us how Notre Dame was screwed, especially since the ranking just shows how the committee ranks them on this day. I believe the Irish are in a good position to vault into the playoff conversation if they win out.

Exactly, at this point Notre Dame hasn't beaten anyone that's currently ranked in the CFP poll. Looking at their wins this year you have

Since when is "who you beat?" more important than overall SOS or "who you lost to"?

That is ignorant thinking. ND should clearly be ranked ahead of Michigan State and TCU, at a minimum.
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2014 08:45 AM by quo vadis.)
10-29-2014 08:26 AM
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Post: #20
RE: Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
TCU has played though Minnesota, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma St
ND has played exactly who? Stanford, FSU. Who is their 2nd best win? Michigan? Purdue? UNC? Syracuse? Even the Stanford win isn't all that impressive.

Not to mention TCU has looked a whole hell of a lot better than Notre Dame so far.
10-29-2014 08:27 AM
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