Some observations on the CFP Top 25, + discrepancies between CFP Top 25 and AP Poll
Looking at the CFP top 25, a few things stand out:
1) Despite all the SOS talk, LOSSES still matter most. The two major unbeaten teams are ranked #1 and #2. Then, the next 16 places are held by teams with 1 loss. There is no two-loss team before #18 Oklahoma, and the only 1-loss teams that are ranked behind any two-loss teams are #24 Duke and #23 ECU, teams that have played abjectly weak schedules.
2) Overall SOS doesn't matter as much as high-end SOS. For example, TCU is given a lot of love by the committee, they are ranked #7, three spots higher than their AP ranking of #10. That's probably because they have played two ranked teams - #13 Baylor and #15 Oklahoma - despite an overall Sagarin SOS of 48.
3) Easily, the most impactful game of the season so far has been FSU versus Notre Dame. FSU won the game and sits at #2, and will clearly make the playoffs if they win out. Notre Dame is at #10, and will need a whole lot of help to make the playoffs even if they win out.
Except for their game against each other, they have nearly identical resumes. Both have six other wins against nondescript opponents and an overall SOS of around 40. But because FSU won their game, they are one of two unbeatens and hence #2 (see point #1 above) whereas because they lost, ND is just one of many one-loss teams and their resume doesn't stand out at all.
Since it is very likely that Notre Dame would be #2 and FSU #10 had ND won the game, the offensive PI call that cost ND that game is looming hugely over this season.
4) There isn't much of a discrepancy between the CFP Top 25 and the AP top 25 (see comparison below). Only one team that is unranked by the AP is in the CFP Top 25, and this is #25 Louisville. Also, the largest discrepancy between rankings is just +/- 4 (Notre Dame, #6 AP/#10 CFP) and only five other schools vary by as many as 3 positions, while 11 teams are either exactly the same in both polls or differ by just a single position.
5) Of the teams outside of the top 4, only Alabama clearly controls its own destiny. With games remaining against both #1 MSU and #3 Auburn, Alabama will surely be in if they win out. That is not true of anyone else, including #5 Oregon, though they are likely to get in because Ole Miss and Mississippi State play each other as well.
Here's a comparison between the CFP Top 25 and the AP poll. AP poll ranking in parentheses:
1) Mississippi State (1) ..... 0
2) FSU (2) ....................... 0
3) Auburn (4) .................. +1
4) Ole Miss (7) ................ +3
5) Oregon (5) ................. 0
6) Alabama (3) ............... -3
7) TCU (10) ................... +3
8) Michigan St (8) ........... 0
9) K-State (11) ............... +2
10) Notre Dame (6) ......... -4
11) Georgia (9) ............... -2
12) Arizona (14) ............. +2
13) Baylor (12) ............... -1
14) AZ-State (15) ........... +1
15) Nebraska (17) .......... +2
16) Ohio State (13) ......... -3
17) Utah (18) ................. -1
18) Oklahoma (19) ......... +1
19) LSU (16) ................... -3
20) WVU (20) ..................0
21) Clemson (22) ............ +1
22) UCLA (25) .................+3
23) ECU (21) ...................-2
24) Duke (24) ..................0
25) Louisville (unranked) ...+1
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2014 07:36 PM by quo vadis.)
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