Okay, before everybody starts bitching, this index is a combination of performance to date, plus projected finish, based upon each team's remaining schedule.

Like any ranking, it has its flaws, but it's fun to me, especially since Memphis is ranked the highest of all AAC teams. Actually seems feasible, since we're up fairly high now, and have the easiest remaining schedule, of the top AAC teams.

Unfortunately, Marshall is ranked slightly higher (#28), due in part, of course, to being projected not to lose a game.

32. Memphis
41. Houston
47. ECU
54. UCF
60. Cincinnati
69. Temple
99. USF
106. UConn
107. Tulane
114. Tulsa
126. SMU

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stat...eamratings

They give y'all a 47% chance to win out (only 12% for us). A 9 win Memphis team would be pretty stellar.

We are above Tennessee so I am cool with it!

I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.

I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.

(10-27-2014 04:06 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  They give y'all a 47% chance to win out (only 12% for us). A 9 win Memphis team would be pretty stellar.

Pretty good chance to win out with our remaining schedule:
-95% chance to beat a 1-6 Tulsa team at home
-66% chance to beat a 4-3 Temple team on the road
-87% chance to beat a 2-5 Tulane team on the road
-92% chance to beat a 3-5 South Florida team at home
-94% chance to beat a 1-6 UConn team at home

(10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.

I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.

Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.

I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.

But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.

(10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.

I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.

Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.

I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.

But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.

It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.

(10-27-2014 04:45 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.

I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.

Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.

I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.

But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.

It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.

If anything, I would give us a 50% chance of beating UCF and a 60% chance at Temple. I would keep the Cinci game at 49%.

I guess time will tell.

(10-27-2014 04:03 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Okay, before everybody starts bitching, this index is a combination of performance to date, plus projected finish, based upon each team's remaining schedule.

Like any ranking, it has its flaws, but it's fun to me, especially since Memphis is ranked the highest of all AAC teams. Actually seems feasible, since we're up fairly high now, and have the easiest remaining schedule, of the top AAC teams.

Unfortunately, Marshall is ranked slightly higher (#28), due in part, of course, to being projected not to lose a game.

32. Memphis
41. Houston
47. ECU
54. UCF
60. Cincinnati
69. Temple
99. USF
106. UConn
107. Tulane
114. Tulsa
126. SMU

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stat...eamratings

Moving up :)

(10-27-2014 04:45 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.

I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.

Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.

I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.

But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.

It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.

Okay, that's a more technical way to say the odds are better that they lose a game, to the point that a loss is likely calculated into the results. How's that? :)

(10-27-2014 04:45 PM)mairving Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:35 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(10-27-2014 04:13 PM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  I would think any G5 team with 2 losses or more will not be in the CFP poll at least the first 2 weeks. Unless all the leading G5 teams all start losing at the same time. For now this is ECU and Marshall's to lose. Maybe CSU sneaks in but Boise would have to lose.

I am hoping other AAC teams move up the rankings as that would make our conference the solid leader of the G5.

Of course the G5 slot is ECU's or Marshall's to win or lose. But technically, this has nothing to do with that race, and is simply a projection of what is the most likely to happen, based on remaining schedules.

I imagine the first CFP poll tomorrow will more closely reflect the other polls, b/c they all are as of today, not a projection of future results, as is this ranking.

But if you look at it, it's obvious they think Marshall and Memphis will win out, and ECU and UCF will lose a game.

It's not that they think they will lose a game. There is just a higher chance of it. ECU has a 56% of winning at Temple, a 49% chance of winning at Cincy and a 60% chance of winning vs. UCF. You would think that ECU could win out but they haven't played great in their last 2 games.

49% against Cincy means Cincy has a 51% chance of winning which means they have Cincy winning that game factored in.

They have UCF as the highest chance to win the AAC at 63.3%

How can 2 teams (New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan) be worse than SMU?

(10-28-2014 09:10 AM)mairving Wrote:  How can 2 teams (New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan) be worse than SMU?

SMU has something like the 8th toughest schedule. Factoring that in, I guess.