My guess is going to be extremely close to allow the ability to move up anyone later in the season. My bet is going to be

#21 ECU
#22 Marshal
#25 CSU

Your guess?

I'm not sure how the committee will present this part of their decision. The G5 slot is reserved for conference champions only. The may rank order the teams separately from their top 25 list.

Right now, there would seem to be six likely candidates, but that could change significantly based on results of conference races. The teams in the running would seem to include, in no particular order, Marshall (CUSA), ECU and UCF (AAC), Colorado State and Boise State (MWC), and Northern Illinois (MAC). There is virtually no chance for a Sunbelt team to make the short list.

If UCF and Boise were to win their respective conferences, and Marshall were to lose in a CUSA CCG, there would be no eligible one loss G5 teams, and potentially three eligible two loss teams (UCF, Boise and NIU). I notice that none of them are even on your list.

It could be that the committee won't even address the G5 issue until the champions are determined.