FSU vs. Georgia
Ohio State vs. TCU


No Alabama....no Mississippi schools (although I could be wrong about Dak's team)....no Irish....no Auburn! no Baylor!! no Oregon!!! no SEC West!!!

I'm following one strict guideline...THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

FSU has a couple of tricky road games, and that's it

Georgia has Auburn left on the schedule....even if they lose that game, they've got a great shot to get to the SEC Championship....

TCU is a little more tricky, but they've already played Baylor and Oklahoma....its Texas (winnable), Kansas State, and West Virginia, and they can definitely win out

The SEC West is too hard this year, there's no way any of those teams are going to win out....

Both Oregon and the Irish play (or will have to play) Arizona State and/or USC, two teams really coming on lately

Baylor still has Oklahoma and Kansas State....

Ohio State has 1 tough game...beat Michigan State and they go to the Big 10 championship game to play Nebraska or someone. I like their chances to win out

So, we wouldn't get the best teams in the country playing one another. Oh joy!

Gaming the system by seeking the path of least resistance is the old way of trying to get a national championship. It is counter to the intentions and guidelines of the committee. Schools like Florida State selecting the ACC for that path (see Bowden's remarks on joining the ACC) shouldn't get a break on SOS. Besides true champions never need to game the system to get a title. They just line up and take it.

#1 Mississippi State/Ole Miss (undefeated SEC Champ) vs #4 Notre Dame (one-loss)
#2 FSU (undefeated ACC Champ) vs #3 Michigan State/Ohio State (one-loss B1G Champ)

The close game between FSU and Notre Dame in addition to the country's love/hate affair with the Irish will put them in that fourth spot.

Womp Womp Womp PAC/Big 12

Here's what I know about the playoff this year:

1. No G5 teams will be in. ECU had a shot if they took care of South Carolina, and Marshall was doomed from the start with a weak schedule and not breaking into the top 25 until mid season.

2. No 2-loss team will make the playoff UNLESS they are a participant in the SEC championship game. Win or lose, a 2-loss team in the SEC championship game has a shot if enough undefeated and 1-loss teams fall between now and then.

3. There are 16 teams in the P5 conferences with 1 loss and 3 that are undefeated. All have at least have a puncher's chance if they can win out.

Here are the remaining games involving these 19 teams:

ACC:

#2 Florida State 7-0 (4-0)
#26 Duke 6-1 (2-1) w/bad loss to Miami (FL)

ACC Championship game? (Only if 11-1 Duke vs. 11-1 or 12-0 FSU)

Big 12:

#10 TCU 5-1 (2-1) w/good loss to Baylor
#11 Kansas State 5-1 (3-0) w/good loss to Auburn
#12 Baylor 6-1 (3-1) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to WVU

Kansas State @ TCU, November 8
Kansas State @ Baylor, December 6

Big Ten:

#8 Michigan State 6-1 (3-0) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to Oregon
#13 Ohio State 5-1 (2-0) w/bad loss to Virginia Tech
#16 Nebraska 6-1 (2-1) w/good loss to Michigan State
#28 Minnesota 6-1 (3-0) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to TCU

Ohio State @ Michigan State, November 8
Ohio State @ Minnesota, November 15
Minnesota @ Nebraska, November 22
Big Ten Championship Game? (Only if 11-1 OSU vs. 11-1 Nebraska, 11-1 Michigan State vs. 11-1 Nebraska, or 11-1 Michigan State vs. 11-1 Minnesota)

Independents:

#7 Notre Dame 6-1 w/good loss to FSU

Notre Dame at Arizona State, November 8

Pac 12:

#6 Oregon 6-1 (3-1) w/good loss to Arizona
#14 Arizona State 5-1 (3-1) w/bad loss (margin of victory) to UCLA
#15 Arizona 5-1 (2-1) w/good loss to USC
#19 Utah 5-1 (2-1) w/bad loss to Washington State

Utah @ Arizona State, November 1
Oregon @ Utah, November 8
Arizona @ Utah, November 22
Arizona State @ Arizona, November 28
Pac 12 Championship Game?

SEC:

#1 Mississippi State 6-0 (3-0)
#3 Ole Miss 7-0 (4-0)
#4 Alabama 6-1 (3-1) w/good loss to Ole Miss
#5 Auburn 5-1 (2-1) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to Mississippi State
#9 Georgia 6-1 (4-1) w/iffy loss to South Carolina

Auburn @ Ole Miss, November 1
Auburn @ Georgia, November 15
Mississippi State @ Alabama, November 15
Auburn @ Alabama, November 29
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, November 29
SEC Championship Game?

To reiterate, all of these teams have a CHANCE at the playoff, but several are unlikely (especially Duke and Minnesota). If any of these teams lose a 2nd game, they are eliminated UNLESS they either win the SEC championship, or sustain their 2nd loss in the SEC championship game. I will try to update this list as the season continues. Hopefully some of you will find it helpful. If I missed any games or have any of my facts wrong, please let me know and I will correct. Rankings are based off the AP poll.

(10-20-2014 02:33 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  So, we wouldn't get the best teams in the country playing one another. Oh joy!

Well, those 4 teams would have won their respective conferences....I suppose you want an automatic bid for Bama?

(10-20-2014 03:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Gaming the system by seeking the path of least resistance is the old way of trying to get a national championship. It is counter to the intentions and guidelines of the committee. Schools like Florida State selecting the ACC for that path (see Bowden's remarks on joining the ACC) shouldn't get a break on SOS. Besides true champions never need to game the system to get a title. They just line up and take it.

I didn't say anything about gaming the system...they would simply be the teams that survived with the best records

(10-20-2014 04:49 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 03:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Gaming the system by seeking the path of least resistance is the old way of trying to get a national championship. It is counter to the intentions and guidelines of the committee. Schools like Florida State selecting the ACC for that path (see Bowden's remarks on joining the ACC) shouldn't get a break on SOS. Besides true champions never need to game the system to get a title. They just line up and take it.

I didn't say anything about gaming the system...they would simply be the teams that survived with the best records

But that is why SOS is such a strong component of the new system. It's not just about compiling a good record anymore.

(10-20-2014 04:48 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(10-20-2014 02:33 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  So, we wouldn't get the best teams in the country playing one another. Oh joy!

Well, those 4 teams would have won their respective conferences....I suppose you want an automatic bid for Bama?

Unless the SEC falls totally flat down the stretch what value is winning just any conference in claiming to be the National Champion?

Champions are only made when they play the very best and gaming the polls late hardly achieves that.

(10-20-2014 03:31 PM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  Here's what I know about the playoff this year:

1. No G5 teams will be in. ECU had a shot if they took care of South Carolina, and Marshall was doomed from the start with a weak schedule and not breaking into the top 25 until mid season.

2. No 2-loss team will make the playoff UNLESS they are a participant in the SEC championship game. Win or lose, a 2-loss team in the SEC championship game has a shot if enough undefeated and 1-loss teams fall between now and then.

3. There are 16 teams in the P5 conferences with 1 loss and 3 that are undefeated. All have at least have a puncher's chance if they can win out.

Here are the remaining games involving these 19 teams:

ACC:

#2 Florida State 7-0 (4-0)
#26 Duke 6-1 (2-1) w/bad loss to Miami (FL)

ACC Championship game? (Only if 11-1 Duke vs. 11-1 or 12-0 FSU)

Big 12:

#10 TCU 5-1 (2-1) w/good loss to Baylor
#11 Kansas State 5-1 (3-0) w/good loss to Auburn
#12 Baylor 6-1 (3-1) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to WVU

Kansas State @ TCU, November 8
Kansas State @ Baylor, December 6

Big Ten:

#8 Michigan State 6-1 (3-0) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to Oregon
#13 Ohio State 5-1 (2-0) w/bad loss to Virginia Tech
#16 Nebraska 6-1 (2-1) w/good loss to Michigan State
#28 Minnesota 6-1 (3-0) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to TCU

Ohio State @ Michigan State, November 8
Ohio State @ Minnesota, November 15
Minnesota @ Nebraska, November 22
Big Ten Championship Game? (Only if 11-1 OSU vs. 11-1 Nebraska, 11-1 Michigan State vs. 11-1 Nebraska, or 11-1 Michigan State vs. 11-1 Minnesota)

Independents:

#7 Notre Dame 6-1 w/good loss to FSU

Notre Dame at Arizona State, November 8

Pac 12:

#6 Oregon 6-1 (3-1) w/good loss to Arizona
#14 Arizona State 5-1 (3-1) w/bad loss (margin of victory) to UCLA
#15 Arizona 5-1 (2-1) w/good loss to USC
#19 Utah 5-1 (2-1) w/bad loss to Washington State

Utah @ Arizona State, November 1
Oregon @ Utah, November 8
Arizona @ Utah, November 22
Arizona State @ Arizona, November 28
Pac 12 Championship Game?

SEC:

#1 Mississippi State 6-0 (3-0)
#3 Ole Miss 7-0 (4-0)
#4 Alabama 6-1 (3-1) w/good loss to Ole Miss
#5 Auburn 5-1 (2-1) w/iffy loss (margin of victory) to Mississippi State
#9 Georgia 6-1 (4-1) w/iffy loss to South Carolina

Auburn @ Ole Miss, November 1
Auburn @ Georgia, November 15
Mississippi State @ Alabama, November 15
Auburn @ Alabama, November 29
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss, November 29
SEC Championship Game?

To reiterate, all of these teams have a CHANCE at the playoff, but several are unlikely (especially Duke and Minnesota). If any of these teams lose a 2nd game, they are eliminated UNLESS they either win the SEC championship, or sustain their 2nd loss in the SEC championship game. I will try to update this list as the season continues. Hopefully some of you will find it helpful. If I missed any games or have any of my facts wrong, please let me know and I will correct. Rankings are based off the AP poll.

Don't think you can 100% say a two loss non-SEC team is out of the picture. It's probably true, but there will be years where there is a lot of attrition and they have to dip down into the 2 loss team pool to fill one of the spots. You just never know.